In this note, we analyze the indebtedness of 35 international E&Ps publicly listed in the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and the USA. For each company, we look at (1) cash position, (2) level and nature of debt (including covenants), (3) debt service and principal repayment framework and (4) Brent price required from April to YE20 to meet all the obligations and keep cash positions intact. We also estimate YE20 cash if Brent were to average US$20/bbl from April to YE20. While the oil demand and oil price collapse are of unprecedented historical proportions and the opportunities to cut costs much more limited than in 2014, most companies (with a few exceptions) entered the crisis in much better position than six years ago, with stronger balance sheets and often already extended debt maturities. In addition, this time around, many E&Ps have already been deleveraging for 1-2 years and are not caught in the middle of large developments that cannot be halted. The previous crisis also showed that debt providers could relax debt covenants for a certain period as long as interest and principal repayment obligations were met. This implies that as long as operations are not interrupted and counterparties keep paying their bills (Kurdistan), the storm can be weathered by most for a few quarters.
With (1) Brent price of about US$50/bbl in 1Q20, (2) reduced capex programmes, (3) material hedging programmes covering a large proportion of FY20 production at higher prices and (4) limited principal repayments in 2020, we find that most companies can meet all their costs and obligations in 2020 at Brent prices below US$40/bbl and often below US$35/bbl) from April until YE20 and keep their cash intact, allowing them to remain solvent at much lower prices for some time. In particular, Maha Energy and SDX Energy are cash neutral at about US$20/bbl. When factoring the divestment of Uganda, Tullow needs only US$9/bbl to maintain its YE20 cash equal to YE19. Canacol Energy, Diversified Gas and Oil, Independent Oil & Gas, Orca Exploration, Serica Energy and Wentworth Resources are gas stories not really exposed to oil prices and Africa Oil has hedged 95% of its FY20 production at over US$65/bbl.
Companies: AKERBP AOI CNE CNE DGOC EGY ENOG ENQ GENL GKP GPRK GTE HUR IOG JSE KOS LUPE MAHAA OKEA ORC.B PEN PHAR PMO PTAL PXT RRE SDX SEPL TETY TGL TLW TXP WRL
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target: US$20 - Delivering more with less | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US and US$87 mm equity raise | Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/CN): 1Q20 results| Parex Resources (PXT CN): 1Q20 results | Trinity Exploration and Production (TRIN LN): FY19 results | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): 1Q20 results | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN): 1Q20 results | Premier Oil (PMO LN): 1Q20 update and FY20 production guidance reduction | Serinus Energy (SEN LN): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN): 1Q20 results |Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN): Production update in Kazakhstan | Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1Q20 update | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): 1Q20 results | ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN/SS): 1Q20 update in Kurdistan | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN): 1Q20 results | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): 1Q20 results | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US): 1Q20 results | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): 1Q20 results
Companies: KOS GPRK DGOC GTE PXT TRIN TXP CPI PMO SENX VLU CASP GENL PHAR SNM TGL AOI EGY KOS
Ascent Resources (AST LN): Entering Cuba | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Production shutdown and licence termination in Argentina | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Exiting Area A in Alaska following drilling results | Coro Energy (CORO LN) and Empyrean Energy (EME LN): Resources increase in Indonesia | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Farm out transaction in Australia | Oil Search (OSH AU): US$700 mm equity raise| Discovery in Norway | Baron Oil (BOIL LN)/Upland Resources (UPL LN): Relinquish UK licence | EnQuest (ENQ LN): FY19 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): FY results | Ithaca Energy (Delek): Cutting capex for the North Sea | OMV (OMV AG): 1Q20 trading update | Repsol (REP SM): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLE CN/VLU LN): Constrained gas sales in Turkey | Block Energy (BLOE LN): Shutting production in Georgia | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN): FY19 results | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR LN): Corporate update | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Resources increase in Israel | SDX Energy (SDX LN): FY19 results and discovery in Egypt | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): Reduction of extraordinary dividend, capex reduction, FY20 production guidance
maintained | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): Tax update in Kenya | Giant gas development projects delayed | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): Cost reduction and RBL redetermination | Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): Production update in Gabon
Companies: 88E AOI AST BLOE BOIL CHAR CORO DGOC EGY EME ENOG ENQ IGAS KOS OSH OMV PGR PMO REP ENW SDX TETY UPL VLU
GeoPark (GPRK US)C ; Target price: US$20: Constructed to handle US$25-30/bbl | Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C : Corporate update | Bahamas Petroleum Corporation (BPC LN): More money for Bahamas exploration | Echo Energy (ECHO LN): Cost cutting required to withstand low commodity prices | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN/CN): Vietnam first gas delayed from “not before 4Q21” to “no earlier than late 2022”. | Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Reducing capex, GY20 guidance maintained | EnQuest (ENQ LN): Reducing capex; Heather and Thistle/Deveron fields not restarting | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): FY19 results | i3 Energy (I3E LN): Deal with contractor to drill wells at Serenity in the UK North Sea | Lundin Petroleum (LUP SS): Discovery in Norway | OKEA (OKEA NO): Suspend new project sanction | Majors cut cost and suspend buy back programmes | Total (FP FP): Discovery in the UK North Sea | Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN): Suspending drilling in Kazakhstan | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN): Update in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan | DNO ASA (DNO NO): Reducing capex, cancelling dividend | Genel Energy (GENL LN): Reserves downgrade at Tawke in Kurdistan; restrained activities but dividend maintained | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): FY19 results | SDX Energy (SDX LN): Drilling update in Morocco | ExxonMobil (XOM US): Exiting Chad? | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): Cutting capex budget and suspending dividend | Seplat Petroleum (SEPL LN): FY19 results
Companies: GPRK PEN BPC ECHO JSE AKERBP ENQ HUR I3E LUPE OKEA CASP CPI DNO GENL ENOG SDX XOM KOS SEPL
Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): FY20 guidance has been set at 42.5kboepd – 50.0kboepd | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Lancaster EPS continues to perform strongly | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN): Oldfield comes up dry
Companies: ENOG HUR KOS
Kosmos Energy (KOS LN) – Resolution found to be water bearing | Longboat Energy (LBE LN): Admission to Aim and £10m raise
Companies: Kosmos Energy
Volga Gas (VGAS LN) (not covered): Production update in Russia | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN) (not covered): Well results in Israel | Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN) (not covered): 3Q19 results and discovery in EG
Companies: VGAS ENOG KOS
Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.80: Dry hole in Mexico and arbitration update in India | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US) (not covered): Gas discovery in Mauritania
Companies: Cairn Energy Kosmos Energy
VAALCO Energy (EGY US) 1 : BUY, US$3.00: Initiating coverage: Building on African success | i3 Energy (I3E LN)1 ; Speculative Buy, £1.40: Drilling update | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN); BUY, £0.55: Bond settlement | Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN) (not covered): Drilling update in Senegal
Companies: EGY I3E IOG KOS
Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US) (not covered): 2Q19 results | Parex Resources (PXT CN); BUY, C$32.00: 2Q19 results | Providence Resources (PVR LN) (not covered): Working capital update
Companies: KOS PXT PVR
Kosmos Oil & Gas (KOS): Q2 results | PetroMatad (MATD): Red Deer spud & Heron Suspension | Pantheon Resources (PANR): Farmout Process | Lansdowne Oil & Gas* (LOGP)/Providence Resources (PVR): Funding Update and Providence Restructuring | Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN): Stanley-3 Spud | Volga Gas (VGAS): Drilling Update
Companies: KOS MATD PANR LOGP MSMN VGAS
GeoPark (GPRK US) (not covered): Blocks award in Colombia | Angus Energy (ANGS LN) (not covered): Well update in the UK | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN) (not covered): Well update in the UK | Serinus Energy (SENX LN)1; Speculative Buy, £0.20: Positive Update in Romania
Companies: GPRK ANGS HUR SEN KOS
Hurricane Energy (HUR): Exploration Well Dry | Kosmos Energy (KOS): Exploration Success | San Leon Energy (SLE): Extension to Nigerian licence | Lekoil (LEK): MOU Signed for Otakikpo | Cluff | Natural Resources (CLNR): Dewar Feasibility Study | Mosman Oil & Gas* (MSMN): Sale of Strawn
Companies: HUR KOS SLE LEK CLNR LOGP
Kosmos Energy (KOS): Gulf of Mexico well result | Volga Gas* (VGAS): Monthly Production Report | Tower Resources* (TRP): Full Year Results | Egdon Resources (EDR): Open Offer Results | IGAS (IGAS): Conventional Project Update
Companies: KOS VGAS TRP EDR IGAS
Canacol Energy (CNE CN) (not covered): Operating update in Colombia | Ecopetrol (EC US) (not covered): 1Q19 results | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)1,6; HOLD, SEK85.00: 1Q19 results | Kosmos Energy (KOS US) (not covered): 1Q19 results and operating update | Total (FP FP) (not covered) acquiring Anadarko Petroleum (APC US) (not covered)’s African assets
Companies: CNE KOS TETY
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Kosmos Energy.
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Robust, cash-generative production from mining waste
Jubilee operates several chrome-Platinum Group Metal (PGM) operations in South Africa and is constructing a zinc-lead (vanadium) plant at Kabwe in Zambia after already commissioning the copper and cobalt circuits (the ‘Sable' refinery). The company has a growth pipeline identified and significant opportunities to find new projects in Africa (or globally); more specifically, Jubilee announced that it is looking to increase its copper (cobalt) production in Zambia aggressively to make full use of the Sable Refinery. Jubilee also owns the Tjate PGM project in South Africa, which is currently on hold. The company model is to treat its own waste materials and to supplement these with third party ores and wastes where possible. This year has been nothing if not eventful for Jubilee, but further progress and material catalysts are expected over the course of 2020. Jubilee has a high-margin business with cash on hand, and we see plenty of opportunities for Jubilee to capitalise on its robust business model through the global Covid-19 crisis and beyond. We initiate with a fair value of 11.2p/sh
Companies: Jubilee Platinum
Companies: Hurricane Energy
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced robust Q2 2020 operating statistics which highlight that there were no COVID-19 related interruptions, in part due to stringent measures put in place by the company. Q2 2020 copper output of 3.4kt was down 6% YoY, up 6% QoQ, however, H1 2020 total production was flat at 6.6kt indicating the company is on track for our 13.4kt 2020F target. Q2 Lead and zinc production of 7.5kt and 6.1kt were up 3% and 5% YoY although both were down 1% QoQ respectively. For H1 2020 12.2kt of zinc and 15.1kt of lead were up 5% and 6% which was primarily due to higher throughput.
Companies: Central Asia Metals
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Caledonia's Q2 2020 production from its 64% owned Blanket mine in Zimbabwe was 13.5koz gold. This was an increase over the same period last year of 6.2%, leaving Caledonia with a first half production of 27.7koz – well ahead of this time last year (24.7koz) and on track to meet its 2020 full year guidance of 53-56koz (WHI etc. 55.5koz).
Spectra Systems Corporation is a provider of machine-readable high-speed banknote authentication, brand protection technologies and gaming security software. The company has announced that it has executed a new contract with a major world central bank to ‘enhance existing authentication sensors to detect a unique type of counterfeit notes'.
Companies: Spectra Systems Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Com Shs Npv
Companies: Premier Oil
Jubilee today takes us through its H1 2020 numbers, which, importantly, cover the critical COVID-19 initial lockdown period in South Africa. The numbers continue to show growth and progress, with headline H1 2020 operational earnings up 54% to GBP 12.8 million – the sixth consecutive, six-monthly period of double-digit growth. The cash position increased to £10.8m despite settling the final payment of £1.4m for the acquisition of additional PGM and chrome rights as well as settling historical debt of £2.5m, all while commissioning the Zambian Sable Refinery.
Following the appointment two months ago of new CEO Rob Richards, VDTK's newsflow has been encouraging in recent weeks, and we view this morning's announcement as a further affirmation of the company's renewable energy solution. Today's RNS highlighting a contract to supply ultra lightweight, flexible solar panels to Black Tulip Minerals SA, of Peru, is, at over €200,000, the latest in a string of recent positive announcements, while also taking the company into a completely new sector which it had announced as a target area.
Image Scan is a specialist in the field of X-ray imaging for the security and industrial inspection markets. The company has announced, as part of its organic growth strategy, a new partnership agreement with a major security technology company that will lead to the launch of a new range of security X-ray screening systems for the international market. Competitively priced, and leveraging Image Scan's IP and direct and indirect international channel partners, the new system will be a high performance, competitive conveyor X-ray machine, suitable for security checkpoints in government and commercial buildings around the world. Importantly, these systems will also allow the company to increase its recurring service and support revenue.
Companies: IGE JLP VDTK
Stable platform agreement approved by creditors
U.S. futures and European stocks dropped on Friday as investors mulled a reported conflict among policy makers over a stimulus package for the single-currency region, as well as political upheaval in France.
The Stoxx 600 Index fell after Bloomberg News reported the European Central Bank is facing a potential rift over how much their emergency bond-purchase program should stay weighted toward weaker countries such as Italy. The euro fluctuated following French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to name a new prime minister after asking his government to resign. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc slumped after the British jet-engine maker said its exploring options to raise funds to strengthen its balance sheet.
The dollar was slightly down, posting its first weekly drop in a month, while American cash equity and bond markets were shut for Independence Day. President Donald Trump will attend an early July 4 celebration at Mount Rushmore with thousands of guests who won't be required to wear masks, while his U.K. counterpart Boris Johnson urged Britons to act responsibly as pubs prepare to re-open and the government lifts quarantine rules on travel for 60 countries.
The friction at the ECB highlights the risk to markets should promised stimulus measures fall short. Investors continue to weigh policy support and upbeat economic data against relentless new outbreaks of the virus. U.S payrolls figures Thursday fuelled optimism of a V-shaped recovery in the world's biggest economy, even as Florida reported that infections and hospitalizations jumped the most yet, and Houston had a surge in intensive-care patients. Emerging-market stocks posted the biggest weekly gain in a month.
Elsewhere, crude oil dipped but remained on track for a weekly gain.
Companies: TGL JSE IAE ADME BP/ DGOC ENOG NTQ NTOG PMO RBD ROSE RDSA UKOG TRIN
InfraStrata has raised £9m in gross proceeds via a share placing (subject to the approval of shareholders), which will be used to provide growth capital to execute on the company's pipeline. The proceeds will also be used to repay high-cost short-term debt (leaving the group with a c£4.5m net cash position). Given the significant earnings potential of H&W, along with that of the group's other infrastructure assets as they mature, we consider the company to be significantly undervalued and reaffirm our Buy recommendation.
On 14 July Powerhouse’s shareholders approved the proposed acquisition of former development partner Waste2Tricity (W2T). This clears the way for Peel Environmental to lead the engagement with all potential end-customers in the UK seeking to deploy Powerhouse’s distributed modular generation (DMG) technology as well as developing DMG plants on its own sites. Peel is targeting the development of at least 30 DMG plants across the UK, each of which will potentially generate £0.5m in annual licence fees for Powerhouse.
Companies: Powerhouse Energy Group
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target price £0.45: 1Q20 results/Bretaña expected to restart in July – 1Q20 financials are in line with expectations and 1Q20 production had been reported previously. At the end of 1Q20, current trade and other payables had been reduced to ~US$45 mm compared to ~US$55 mm at YE19. Most importantly. PetroTal continues to expect the Bretaña field to be re-opened this month. The contingent liability with Petroperu is estimated at US$25 mm at the current oil price and the company has entered into a financial swap for 0.46 mmbbl of oil with an ICE Brent reference price of US $40.58/bbl to cover the upcoming sale by Petroperu at the Bayovar port. This is a recovery story that we continue to like. It offers a combination of value, production and cash flow growth and reserves upside. We anticipate that the imminent reopening of the field with be an important catalyst to the share price.
i3 Energy (I3E LN): Reveals takeover target in Canada | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update | Aker BB (AKERBP NO): 2Q20 update in Norway | Energy (RRE LN): Recommended offer by Viaro Energy | Spirit Energy: Dry hole in Norway | Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Ukraine update | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): 2Q20 update in Ukraine and Russia | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): Operating update in Egypt and Vietnam | Sound Energy (SOU LN)C: Terms of Moroccan licence renegotiated | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): June production in Oman | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Gas sales contract with ENEO in Cameroon terminated
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
14/07/2020: Aker BP (AKERBP NO) – 2Q20 results
15/07/2020: Premier Oil (PMO LN) – 1H20 update
13-17/07/2020: GeoPark (GPRK US) – 2Q20 update
Companies: I3E MAHAA JKX PHAR EQNR AKERBP ENI HUR PTAL REP RRE SOU TPL VOG OMV
AFC Energy to Charge Inaugural Extreme E Championship Race Vehicles
AFC Energy announced that it is collaborating with Extreme E to supply zero emission, hydrogen fuelled, off-grid power to Extreme E's inaugural electric SUV racing series commencing in early 2021. We believe the development is a high-profile endorsement of AFC Energy's technology. AFC Energy has not disclosed the amount of revenue they expect to generate through this one-year contract. We expect AFC Energy will benefit materially from the publicity associated with this global and high-profile Championship. We expect the shares will trade positively on this news.
Companies: AFC Energy
• 1Q20 financials are in line with expectations and 1Q20 production had been reported previously.
• At the end of 1Q20, current trade and other payables had been reduced to ~US$45 mm compared to ~US$55 mm at YE19.
• Most importantly, PetroTal continues to expect the Bretaña field to be re-opened this month.
• The contingent liability with Petroperu is estimated at US$25 mm at the current oil price and the company has entered into a financial swap for 0.46 mmbbl of oil with an ICE Brent reference price of US $40.58/bbl to cover the upcoming sale by Petroperu at the Bayovar port.
Recovery, value and cashflow
PetroTal is a recovery story that we continue to like. It offers a combination of value, production and cash flow growth and reserves upside. PetroTal’s shares continue to trade at around one quarter of our Core NAV of £0.47 per share and at less than half of the company’s value based on its 2P reserves only (2P NAV of £0.28 per share). This reflects Brent price assumptions in line with what BP, Shell and ENI are using. This is important because the commodity prices assumptions of the Majors have often been more conservative than those used by smaller companies that could see PetroTal as an acquisition target. On flat production, PetroTal’s share price implies EV/DACF multiples of 1.0x in 2021 turning negative in 2022. In 2021, we forecast PetroTal generates ~US$90 mm cash flow with ~US$35 mm cash capex (incl. servicing the payables). Our target price of £0.45 per share (~our Core NAV) represents 4.5x the current share price.
Looking beyond the restart of the field
We anticipate that the imminent reopening of the field will be an important catalyst to the share price with 4Q20 production expected to be over 12 mbbl/d. This is however just a first step and there are multiple areas of additional value creation. (1) The story would strongly benefit from a further increase in oil prices. At US$50/bbl for Brent, the Petroperu US$25 mm contingent liability would be reduced to
Oil rebounded as a new virus treatment showed promising results, but rising Covid-19 cases continued to weigh on the market.
Oil gained 2.4% in New York on Friday but is still down for the week. The market followed stocks higher after Gilead Sciences Inc said its remdesivir treatment cut Covid-19 mortality risk by 62%. Still, the coronavirus pandemic is far from easing around the world and the International Energy Agency said a jump in cases could derail the market recovery.
Crude has struggled to extend a recent rally as traders weigh fresh outbreaks of the virus. California, Texas and Florida have recorded some of their biggest daily gains in cases and deaths this week. There is a growing risk that a resurgence will impede efforts to reopen the economy.
While the IEA said demand should rebound sharply over the next three months as economic activity resumes, the agency also warned a flare-up of the virus, which is raging across several US states and re-emerging in Asia, is “casting a shadow over the outlook”.
West Texas Intermediate for August delivery rose 93 cents to $40.55 a barrel in New York.
Brent for September settlement gained 89 cents to $43.24 a barrel.
Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude rose 30 cents to $2 a barrel above Nymex. That is the highest premium since May.
Supply could also become more abundant as Libya's National Oil Corp announced it would lift force majeure on all exports following months of near-zero shipments. The Kriti Bastion tanker has started loading 730,000 barrels of crude at Es Sider, with the cargo heading to Italy, according to port operator Waha Oil Co. Rigzone.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG