Oil & Gas Daily Flow
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): 483MMbbo at Shelf Margin Deltaic alone | Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN): Five-year extension granted in Ohio | Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): FY20 production guidance suspended | Ascent Resources* (AST LN): Strategy to diversify into Caribbean and Hispanic America
PANR DGOC GKP AST
24 Mar 20
Oil prices help, but the best returns come from asset growth
This note takes a look at UK oil and gas sector equities from the supermajors down to the small cap E&Ps, the extent to which they outperform a simple bet on oil prices, and whether there are common characteristics that can allow investors to pick winners in the space. We conclude that outperformance is possible and has been achieved by numerous names in the last ten years, with the core hallmarks being asset base augmentation, either by progressing assets and/or via acquisition, and possessing the agency to achieve this. We also include profiles of the oil and gas stocks in our coverage.
PANR BLVN GENL GEEC GKP HTG HUR IOG JOG LAM PMO RKH SEN
26 Nov 19
Farm out update
Pantheon has released an update on its Alaska farm out process. The shares have exhibited weakness during recent weeks, during a period in which we have had the positive news of a potential upgrade to Talitha target resources and the acquisition of Halliburton’s 25% in the Alkaid/Phecda discovery (helping simplify Pantheon’s farm out process), and in which the company has continued to engage with potential partners for its key Alaska farm out. Today’s update reports that this process remains busy, with interest from oil and gas and also nonindustry companies. We believe that this price move creates a buying opportunity, with potential for forward catalysts from a successful farm out and subsequent up to four well drilling programme.
06 Nov 19
Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019
Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.
PANR ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
21 Oct 19
Small Cap Feast
Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019. Pricing rumoured at 115p to 145p implying valuation of up to $1.8bn. Expected 18 Oct 2019. African Export-Import Bank a supranational financial institution w hose purpose is to facilitate, prom ote and expand intra- and extra- African trade, of its potential intention to publish a registration document, the Bank hereby confirms its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering. The GDRs are expected to be admitted to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the LSE.
PANR SAR TAM CREO IGR ANIC RENX AFX FDBK HMI
17 Oct 19
SP Angel – Morning View
Kosmos Oil & Gas (KOS): Q2 results | PetroMatad (MATD): Red Deer spud & Heron Suspension | Pantheon Resources (PANR): Farmout Process | Lansdowne Oil & Gas* (LOGP)/Providence Resources (PVR): Funding Update and Providence Restructuring | Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN): Stanley-3 Spud | Volga Gas (VGAS): Drilling Update
PANR KOS MATD LOGP MSMN VGAS
29 Jul 19
Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019
In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.
PANR AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
23 Jul 19
Arden Morning Comment
Pantheon has announced a resource upgrade on its Alkaid discovery in Alaska. This was recently successfully flow tested at rates of 80-100bbl/d from a 6ft perforated interval (of a total of 240ft of net pay). Petrophysical analysis from the well test, combined with a full integration of 3D seismic data, has led the company to re-map both Alkaid and the next door Phecda prospect. Pantheon is now of the view that Phecda is part of the same structural accumulation as Alkaid, upgrading this. This analysis has led the company to an increase in combined gross OIP in Alkaid/Phecda from 595mmbbl to 900mmbbl, and the expected recovery factor to be increased from 10% to a range of 10-15%. This increases combined gross P50 resources in Alkaid/Phecda from 59mmbbl to a range of 90-135mmbbl – a substantial increase.
06 Jun 19
Small Cap Feast
Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019. Alumasc Group plc, the prem ium building products, system s and solutions group, has announced its intention to m ove from the Premium Segment of the main market to AIM. Expected market cap of £33.4m. Expected 25 June 2019
PANR ANR AMO TPG XPD SSY AAU CLNR THR AUTG
06 Jun 19
SP Angel – Oil & Gas View
Volga Gas (VGA S): AGM Statement and Operational Update | Pantheon Resources (PANR): A laskan Update | Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG): Final Results | Echo Energy (ECHO): Portfolio Restructuring and new CEO | A scent Resources (A ST): Purchase of Mobile Compressor Unit
PANR VGAS JOG ECHO AST RBD
20 May 19
Quarterly Research Outlook
We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.
PANR ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL INCE GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA APP PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
11 Apr 19
The call of the wild
Pantheon is an E&P company with assets onshore Alaska and East Texas. The company recently began a material work programme, with exploration and production drilling and separate flow testing over the coming months. This provides regular news flow while controlling risk, with room to run on success and elsewhere in the portfolio. We initiate with a Buy and 70p target.
28 Feb 19
Small Cap Feast
Kropz, an emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa, a phosphate project in the Republic of Congo and exploration assets in Ghana, is looking to join AIM. Offer TBC, expected late Nov Titon holdings—international manufacturer and supplier of ventilation systems and window and door hardware. No capital raise. Due 10 Dec. Mkt cap c.£22m. Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected early December. Finncap—proposed acquisition of M&A adviser Cavendish Corporate Finance and AIM admission. Offer TBA. Due early Dec Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is investigating the possibility of AIM admission. The Company is proposing to raise up to £2.25 million before the end of December, conditional on Admission. The Panoply parent company of a digitally native technology services group founded in 2016 with the aim of identifying and acquiring best-of-breed specialist information technology and innovation consulting businesses across Europe, is looking to join AIM. Offer £5m new capital, £400k sell-down, market cap of £30m, expected late 4 Dec 2018.
PANR SCH VNH APPS RGM CAS ECO QFI TRIN
28 Nov 18
Small Cap Feast
Wentworth Resources— oil and gas exploration and production company, with assets in the onshore Rovuma Basin of East Africa. Introduction only. Mkt Cap c £50m . Due today Renalytix AI—developer of artificial intelligence ("AI") decision support and clinical management tools for improving early diagnosis, continual monitoring and drug development for kidney disease. incorporated in March 2018 as a subsidiary of EKF Diagnostics Holdings (AIM-EKF). Total fundraising £22.25m.. Mkt cap - c. £67.5- £71.0m. Due 6 Nov. Finncap—proposed acquisition of M&A adviser Cavendish Corporate Finance and AIM admission. Offer TBA Kropz PLC—an emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa, a phosphate project in the Republic of Congo and exploration assets in Ghana. Looking to join AIM, offer TBC, market cap TBC. Due Late October. Azalea Energy—oil and gas production and development company based in Louisiana, United States. Net production of 13 MMcfe/D (2,200 boepd) and total 1P proved reserves of 91 Bcfe (15.1 mmboe), 2P reserves of 111 Bcfe (18.5 mmboe) raising up to $38m, expected mkt cap over $100m. Due 29 Oct Path Investments— First acquisition of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Seeking £10m raise. Due late Oct Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over the next few months.
PANR PPIX MPM PTCM ASLR AUG AFHP C21 RBD SYS1
02 Nov 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Path Investments (PATH) -RTO of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Offer TBA. Due late Aug. Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
PANR BOOT IHC VRS PREM EQT PURE CDM KEFI BRD
24 Aug 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Cradle Arc—holding company of a group of companies focused on the exploration and development of precious and base metals projects in Africa. Offer raising £2.4m with market cap of £20.25m. Expected 10 Jan 2018 Volex VLX.L—The global provider of cable assemblies is proposing to move from the main market to AIM on 19 January. £75m market cap. FYMar18E rev £241.5m and £7.19m PBT. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
PANR PLUS WAND BST CNS AGM FOX BNN
03 Jan 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. Intention to float. Offer TBA “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” | Warehouse REIT - The Company will invest in a diversified portfolio of UK warehouse assets located in urban areas. The Company is targeting a dividend yield of 5.5p equivalent to a yield of 5.5 percent. for the year ending 31 March 2019. Issue price 100p. Offer TBA. Due 20 Sep | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c. £50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. | People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance. | Charter Court Financial Services Group—Intention to float. Specialist lender serving the UK residential mortgage market. The net mortgage loan book stood at £4.4 billion as at 30 June 2017 growing at a compound annual growth rate of 92 percent since 31 December 2014. Part vendor sale and £20m primary raise. | ContourGlobal LP—Report on Bloomberg that the thermal energy power generator is considering a London listing. | Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment Company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Offer raising £200m at 100p. The Company has decided to extend the closing date for the Placing, Offer for Subscription and Intermediaries Offer to 1 August 2017. The Company may bring forward this closing date at any time. Admission 15 September 2017
PANR ALM CNS STX ACSO AMO TXP NAUT ONC RBD
14 Sep 17
COMPTOIR GROUP PLC (COM LN) | EQUATORIAL PALM OIL PLC (PAL LN) | FARON PHARMACEUTICALS OY (FARN LN) | FINNAUST MINING PLC (FAM LN) | FLOWGROUP PLC (FLOW LN) | PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC (PANR LN) | STATPRO GROUP PLC (SOG LN) | VIPERA PLC (VIP LN)
PANR PAL COM FARN FLOW SOG VIP JAY
05 Sep 16
The end of the world as we know it?
According to the LSE stats there was no Oil & Gas fundraising activity on the main market during 2015 and just £1.2m raised on AIM. The chart below clearly demonstrates the pain that oil producers are feeling with global prices having been in almost constant decline since mid-2014. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate are now hovering between $30 and $40 per barrel having rebounded from their lows over recent weeks.
PANR RDSA ITM AVAP FCRM CCL G3E SEPL CLNR
10 Mar 16
Fifteen or so years ago the oil price was on its back (around $10 a barrel) and Tech Boom (v.1) was in full swing. I recall trying to sell a BP call warrant, at its intrinsic value. “No Thanks...” said a renowned guru investor - who was probably the equivalent of Neil Woodford before Neil Woodford was Neil Woodford - “...but what have you got Nokia 3 month ATM calls?” So I sold him some of those at 75% implied vol.
Commodities - Energy
11 Nov 15