Serinus Energy (SENX LN): 1Q20 results - strong financial and operational performance | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Mercuria agrees to amend convertible facilities agreement
Companies: Serinus Energy Phoenix Global Resources
Ascent Resources (AST LN): Entering Cuba | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Production shutdown and licence termination in Argentina | Premier Oil (PMO LN): Exiting Area A in Alaska following drilling results | Coro Energy (CORO LN) and Empyrean Energy (EME LN): Resources increase in Indonesia | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG LN/FO CN): Farm out transaction in Australia | Oil Search (OSH AU): US$700 mm equity raise| Discovery in Norway | Baron Oil (BOIL LN)/Upland Resources (UPL LN): Relinquish UK licence | EnQuest (ENQ LN): FY19 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): FY results | Ithaca Energy (Delek): Cutting capex for the North Sea | OMV (OMV AG): 1Q20 trading update | Repsol (REP SM): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLE CN/VLU LN): Constrained gas sales in Turkey | Block Energy (BLOE LN): Shutting production in Georgia | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN): FY19 results | Chariot Oil & Gas (CHAR LN): Corporate update | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN): Resources increase in Israel | SDX Energy (SDX LN): FY19 results and discovery in Egypt | Tethys Oil (TETY SS): Reduction of extraordinary dividend, capex reduction, FY20 production guidance
maintained | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): Tax update in Kenya | Giant gas development projects delayed | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): Cost reduction and RBL redetermination | Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN): Production update in Gabon
Companies: 88E AOI AST BLOE BOIL CHAR CORO DGOC EGY EME ENOG ENQ IGAS KOS OSH OMV PGR PMO REP RPT SDX TETY UPL VLU
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Not a merry Christmas at Tullow: CEO resigns, production guidance cut, dividend suspended | Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Abu Sennan transaction update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): Strong operational update from PGR
Companies: TLW RKH PGR
Geopark (GPRK US)1 ; BUY, U$27.00: Recommended cash acquisition of Amerisur Resources (AMER LN) (not covered) | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Additional funding | Parkmead Group (The) (PMG LN) (not covered): Results for year ended 30 June 2019 | DNO (DNO NO) (not covered): Baeshiqa testing Update
Companies: GPRK PGR PMG DNO
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)1 ; BUY, £0.45: Another very good operating update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Divestment of Argentinian assets to Echo Energy (ECHO LN) (not covered) | President Energy (PPR LN) (not covered): Acquisition in Argentina | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN)1,7; BUY, £6.00: Final well test results at Inanli-1 and decision by Equinor to start testing Devepinar-1
Companies: PTAL PGR PPC VLU
GeoPark (GPRK US)1 ; BUY, US$26.00: New exploration acreage in Brazil | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 1H19 update in Argentina | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) (not covered): 1H19 results
Companies: GPRK PGR RPT
Phoenix Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Vaca Muerta update in Argentina | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS): BUY, C$2.60; 2Q19 results | Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN) (not covered): 2Q19 results
Companies: PGR AOI ORC.B
Companies: THR TRX KIBO VNET ALS PGR OCI JAN KRS IHC
Amerisur Resources (AMER LN) (not covered): Operations update in Colombia | Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) (not covered): Discovery in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 2Q19 update in Argentina | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) (not covered): Drilling update in the Ukraine
Companies: AMER PGR JKX
Amerisur Resources (AMER): Operational Update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR): Q1 Operational Update | UK Oil & Gas (UKOG): Production Update
Companies: AMER PGR UKOG
Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): FY18 results | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN); HOLD, £0.60: First results imminent from a busy program in Australia | Volga Gas (VGAS LN) (not covered): April production in Russia | Equinor (EQNR NO) (not covered): 1Q19 results | OMV (OMV AG) (not covered): 1Q19 results
Companies: PGR JSE VGAS OMV
Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Unconventional concession at Puesto Rojas in Argentina | Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.80: Dry hole in Norway | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN)1 ; BUY, £0.50: FY18 results | Neptune Energy: FY18 results | Serica Energy (SQZ LN) (not covered): Dry hole in the UK | Regal Petroleum (RPT LN) (not covered): Ukraine update | Eco (Atlantic) Oil and Gas (ECO LN, EOG CN) (not covered): Equity raise in Guyana
Companies: PGR CNE IOG SQZ RPT ECO
Phoenix Global Resources has issued an operational update in respect of the the fourth quarter of 2018. The Company produces approximately 10,000 boe/d, mainly from conventional oil and gas reservoirs in Argentina. However, Phoenix also has exposure to 560,000 net acres in the unconventional Vaca Muerta shale play. Production from this area is rising rapidly as it attracts considerable investment and some holdings have changed hands for over US$13,000/acre. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and 37p price target.
Companies: Phoenix Global Resources
Amerisur (AMER LN) (not covered): reserves update in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): 4Q18 operational update in Argentina | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN/CN): £0.50, BUY; 2019 guidance | SOCO International (SIA LN) (not covered): FY18 results | Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN); BUY, £0.70: Opportunistic potential offer | Seplat Petroleum (SEPL LN); BUY, £2.70: 4Q18 results
Companies: AMER PGR JSE PHAR IOG SEPL
Petrobras (PETR3 BZ) (not covered): 2019-2023 business plan | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN) (not covered): Additional funding | Ascent Resources (AST LN) (not covered): Operational update in Slovenia and end of formal sale process | Chevron (CVX US) (not covered): Potential asset sale in Azerbaijan | Eland Oil & Gas (ELA LN) (not covered): Ubima appraisal in Nigeria
Companies: PGR AST CVX ELA
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InfraStrata's acquisition of the iconic Harland & Wolff (H&W) shipyards in Northern Ireland has been transformational for the group, and with a carefully planned growth strategy, there is a clear route to cash breakeven in the short term. Over the medium to long term, these facilities could support a c£400m revenue business. With the company trading at a c30% discount to its H1/20A book value and c65% to its Adj NAV, we initiate with a Buy recommendation.
Anglo Asian Mining is an AIM listed precious and base metals producer running flagship Gedabek operations in western Azerbaijan which include three producing mines and processing facilities. The Company targets 75-80koz GEOs in 2020 with low cost operations providing capital for organic growth opportunities within the highly prospective +1,000km2 land package, with the potential for additional attractive targets outside Azerbaijan as well as 25% of FCF dividend programme.
Companies: Anglo Asian Mining
Falcon is uniquely placed in the current challenging commodity price environment with its strong cash position (US$11.5m at 31 March 2020), fully funded drilling programme and high quality assets. Following the farm down of a 7.5% participating interest to partner Origin Energy in return for an A$150.5m increase in the gross cap carry, we believe Falcon is fully funded through one of the greatest periods of uncertainty the oil and gas industry has ever faced. At a time when many in the industry fight for their very survival, we believe Falcon has managed to secure a fantastic deal for shareholders, which should see the Company through to the potential monetisation of its 22.5% participating interest. We maintain our price target at 40p, a 426% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas
Sylvania's share price has fallen 53% since its peaked on the 21st Feb, as the global economy hit the brakes. The short term demand outlook for PGMs is miserable, with supply chains breaking down as both luxury goods and car sales sales collapse.
Companies: Sylvania Platinum
Savannah Energy is an AIM-listed E&P company with two sets of assets: (i) in-production gas and oil fields and a regional monopoly gas distributon network in South East Nigeria (well away from the risky Delta area); and (ii) licenses over 50% of a prolific oil basin in Niger.
Companies: Savannah Energy
An independent resource audit by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has significantly increased the resources at the Mako gas field following the JV's highly successful drilling campaign in Q4/19. GCA have increased the 2C gross recoverable dry gas volumes when compared to its previous resource assessment (in January 2019) by 79% to 495Bcf, slightly ahead of the internal 493Bcf assessment. In the upside case, the 3C resources have increased by 108% to 817Bcf, significantly higher than the 3C internal resource estimate of 666Bcf. Following the GCA resource upgrade, the Mako field has been proven to be one of the largest gas fields ever discovered in the West Natuna Basin and is believed to be the largest undeveloped resource in the region. Located close to existing infrastructure and well established markets, we believe Mako is an attractive proposition, which we currently value at US$18.3m or 3.2p using a US$6/mcf long term gas price.
Companies: Empyrean Energy
April 2020 production payment
Companies: Gulf Keystone Petroleum
Petropavlovsk PLC (LSE: POG) have released their FY2019 results and Q1 trading update this morning. The company had already released production numbers for last year. Overall the numbers reflected a strong operational performance although various financial/other parameters thwarted positive changes below the EBITDA line. Conversely net cash from operations reduced by 43% due to lower cash from prepayment as part of the group’s forward sale facility with the banks, yet net debt came down to $561m. . We show the key figures in Table 1.
An independent resource audit by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has significantly increased the resources at the Mako gas field following the JV's highly successful drilling campaign in Q4/19. GCA have increased the 2C gross recoverable dry gas volumes when compared to its previous resource assessment (in January 2019) by 79% to 495Bcf, slightly ahead of the internal 493Bcf assessment. In the upside case, the 3C resources have increased by 108% to 817Bcf, significantly higher than the 3C internal resource estimate of 666Bcf. Following the GCA resource upgrade, the Mako field has been proven to be one of the largest gas fields ever discovered in the West Natuna Basin and is believed to be the largest undeveloped resource in the region. Located close to existing infrastructure and well established markets, we believe Mako is an attractive proposition, which we conservatively value at US$18.3m (risked) or 3.2p using a US$6/mcf long term gas price, unrisked our valuation of Mako increases to US$25.2m or 4.3p per share. We value Empyrean as a whole at 19.0p per share a 280% premium to the share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Valuation – We have updated our Mako model, with gas first in 2023 (previously 2022). Using a long term gas price of US$6/mcf, and a 10% discount factor we value the 42.1Bcf of net 2C resources at US$18.3m (risked) or 3.2p per share. We include a 30% risking to account for any potential commercial risks (including political and fiscal changes), cost risks (associated with potential development cost variations) and timing risks (to allow for any project delays). Unrisked our valuation increases to US$24.7m or 4.3p per share.
A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation of Mako increases to US$31.0m or 5.3p per share (risked), US$44.3m or 7.6p per share (unrisked) and at US$10/mcf our valuation increases to US$40.8m or 7.0p per share (risked), US$58.4m or 10p per share (unrisked).
Combined, we value Empyrean's portfolio at 19p per share, a 280% premium to the share price.
Oil posted its biggest monthly advance on record, just a few weeks after prices made a dramatic plunge below zero. Crude surged about 88% in May, with US futures on Friday rising above $35 a barrel for the first time since March, driven by massive supply curbs by producers across the world. Still, prices are well below levels at the start of the year, and demand that was crushed by the coronavirus crisis may need to show a sustained improvement for the rally to extend further.
For now, the outlook for consumption looks bleak, though it is on the mend. While virus-related lockdowns are easing, demand is not yet roaring back in the US Fuel sales that were clobbered in European nations such as Spain and Italy will take time to recover. China is a bright spot, but the rest of Asia is still struggling.
The number of rigs drilling for oil in the US fell for the eleventh week, stemming the massive glut of crude that flooded the market. Yet there is a risk that oil's advance could tempt producers to turn on their taps again.
US crude futures fluctuated Friday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended aggressive action to shield the economy as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Prices surged at the close, with West Texas Intermediate oil settling 5.3% higher at $35.49 a barrel, after falling as much as 4% earlier in the day. Futures posted the biggest monthly jump in data going back to 1983.
Brent crude for July, which expires Friday, rose 4 cents to $35.33, closing below WTI for the first time since 2016. The global benchmark has rallied almost 40% this month. The more active August contract rose 5% to settle at $37.84.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is poised to sign a measure that would punish Chinese officials for imprisoning more than one million Muslims in internment camps, as he looks to rebuke Beijing over its crackdown in Hong Kong and its response to the coronavirus. He has also discussed putting targeted sanctions and trade measures on China's financial sector.
More on the oil market:
As the fallout from crude's historic plunge continues, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have both opened probes into the $4.64 billion United States Oil Fund ETF.
As China's demand recovery outpaces the rest of Asia, falling fuel exports from the refining giant are providing a much-needed buffer for other processors in the region still grappling with lowered consumption and poor margins.
An early look at Saudi Arabia's crude exports for May shows that historic production cuts have done little to squelch the kingdom's flood of oil to China, which is just getting back on its feet from the coronavirus.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
2019 was a significant year for United Oil & Gas, dominated by the acquisition of Rockhopper Egypt and its 22% working interest in the Abu Sennan concession. The acquisition has transformed United into a full-cycle E&P with c1,760boepd of production. With low operating costs (cUS$6.5/bbl) and drilling costs, Abu Sennan remains cash flow positive with oil prices below US$20/bbl. Additional downside protection comes from the Company's pre-payment facility with BP, effectively hedging 6,600bbls per month at US$60/bbl until September 2022 and its long-term fixed gas contracts, insulating 20% of United's production from the current price volatility. We update our model, accounting for slightly higher operating costs, setting our price target at 6.5p a 242% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: United Oil & Gas
Shearwater sells resilience and today's trading update shows us how resilient demand has been for its products and services. The Group has swung to EBITDA profitability and cash flow is well ahead of expectations. The macro themes of cyber security and remote working are supportive of robust demand levels going forward. We are maintaining our forecasts. Buy.
Companies: Shearwater Group
Companies: Hurricane Energy
Shearwater is on track to meet our FY19E estimates. The acquisition of Brookcourt completed post the balance sheet date and so does not feature in the interim results. The integration is going well and underlying cash generation is positive. The recent sell-off in the shares leaves the stock trading at a 15% discount to the recent Placing price. Buy.
No surprises with President’s interims as most key numbers were pre-announced in early August. Still, good progress was achieved in H1 despite a challenging operational and political backdrop, with floods and power outages impacting output, while more recently the re-imposition of Argentine pricing controls for crude oil has weighed on the shares. Our estimates and price target remain under review while we update our model for the temporary pricing controls and the investment pivot towards gas. Argentine presidential elections in less than a month will continue to influence investor sentiment, although President’s shares have already been heavily impacted.
Companies: President Energy