Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BORDERS & SOUTHERN PETROLEUM. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
BORDERS & SOUTHERN PETROLEUM
BORDERS & SOUTHERN PETROLEUM
26 Sep 16
Borders reported a loss for the first half of US$1.1m which ended with cash and net cash on the balance sheet of US$12.2m, equivalent to 1.9p per share. The company’s licences were extended to 2020/22. Borders completed a reservoir engineering study and a facilities engineering study during the half. These indicate that the post appraisal breakeven oil price for a development at Darwin could be US$40/bbl. We believe interest in a farm-out may be unlikely to emerge until drilling capacity is brought back into Falklands waters, most likely in conjunction with a firm development process for Sea Lion. In that context we reduce our target price to 3.5p (from 5.0p) to reflect the cash on the balance sheet and the optionality at Darwin.
Incorporating new macro forecasts
14 Jul 16
We update the balance of our coverage to the same macro forecasts used in our initiation on Tullow. We make notable specific updates to Faroe and Wentworth. We remain constructive on oil. The reduction in our oil and gas price forecasts is largely offset in sterling terms by the changes in our FX forecasts. Most of our target prices and all of our recommendations are unchanged. We remain Buyers of the sector and our top pick is Pantheon.
Oil & Gas - Incorporating new macro forecasts
14 Jul 16
In a surprise outcome, OPEC and non-OPEC producers failed to reach an accord at a summit meeting in Doha yesterday. The apparent cause of the failure was Saudi Arabia's refusal to accept a deal without some sort of commitment from Iran. While a freeze deal was always likely to leave questions over what oil price was justified by current supply/demand balances and inventory levels, this outcome demonstrates the deep schism within OPEC and removes hope of potential producer action to curb output. Markets are rebalancing, so although oil is likely to come under pressure, the immediate damage may be limited. However, this outcome suggests that market forces alone are going to set the price for the foreseeable future and that leaves open the likelihood of more volatility and the potential for more downside.
Panamure - Morning Note - 31-03-2016
31 Mar 16
Borders reported a net loss of US$2.6m for 2015, a one third reduction YoY mainly reflecting a sharp drop in G&A. Cash and net cash ended the year at US$14.0m. During the course of the year, Borders substantially increased its estimate for unrisked recoverable condensate at its Darwin discovery to 360mmbbl and disclosed an initial estimate for equivalent liquids resources of almost 1.2bnbbl at five near-field prospects. However, the company was not able to achieve a farm-out enabling it to participate in the Falkland’s drilling campaign and while the Humpback result has no technical implications for Borders’ acreage we believe it exacerbates the challenge of securing further drilling on Borders’ position. We amend our target price to 5.0p per share (7.0p) and remain buyers given the optionality in the stock.
13 Jan 16
Allergy Therapeutics issued a trading update with, revenue growth ahead of our forecasts (c2.1% on a statutory basis). Statutory results, however, do not tell the full story as the company performed very strongly with double-digit growth (c11%) shown in constant currencies in the period. Further on, the investment case should be strengthened this year as a US strategy becomes clearer. We make no changes to forecasts at this stage and re-iterate our Buy recommendation and 28p target price.
Panmure Research - Flash 07-12-15
07 Dec 15
Despite rumours of an increase in the group production target, the official OPEC communiqué did not even reference the 30mmbd target set in December 2011. OPEC is anticipating a better balance to the market in 2016, referencing anticipated demand growth of 1.3mmbd and a YOY fall in non-OPEC production, coupled with uncertainty over how much volume Iran will actually be able to add to the market, once sanctions are removed. All the signs are that this was an acrimonious meeting. We are sceptical about the volume Iran will add to the market, hence we do anticipate a significant tightening in 2016.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Small Cap Breakfast
16 Feb 17
Saffron Energy—Schedule One update. Raising £2.5m, expected Mkt Cap £7.7m. Admission due 24 Feb. Italian Oil & Gas Play Guinness Oil & Gas Exploration—Publication of prospectus. Seeking to raise £50m and invest in 15 exploration companies at launch, with plans to grow the portfolio to 30 positions during its lifetime. Issue closing 23 Feb. Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science Company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management
Playing the long term, with short-term risks
16 Feb 17
After the publication of the annual results, we update our view and highlight the key points. Q4 16 key highlights As a reminder, the company reported results 30% below expectations at $400m for Q4 16. By division: 1) In upstream, underlying replacement costs profit came to $400m, vs. a loss a year earlier of $728m and a loss of $224m in Q3 16, reflecting the ongoing lower costs which have benefited from simplifications, efficiencies and lower exploration write-offs. In the US, the loss is still $147m. Production came in at 2.19mbpd, down 5.5% yoy due to disposals and up 1.8% on an underlying basis thanks to ramp-ups. One of the key events during the quarter was the renewal of BP’s onshore concession in the UAE with a 10% interest in the ADCO onshore oil concession. In terms of outlook, production should be higher in 2017 and will depend on the timing of project start-ups, acquisitions, divestments, and OPEC quota. Also the Abu Dhabi concession will be visible as from Q1 17. 2) In downstream, replacement costs profit came to $877m, down from $1.2bn a year ago and $1.4bn in Q3 16. The US division showed a loss of $371m vs a gain of $1.25bn. Non-US Fuel business earnings halved to $417m due to the weaker refining environment as well as the impact from the particularly large turnaround at the Whiting refinery. In lubricants, profit rose to $357m, reflecting the continued strong performance in its growth markets and premium brands as well as simplifications and greater efficiencies. The margin should remain unchanged for Q1 17. 3) Rosneft. Underlying replacement costs profit came to $135m, down from $235m a year ago, affected by the increased government take. Production was at 1.15mbpd, up from 1.03mbpd a year ago. This reflects the completion of the acquisition of Bashneft and Rosneft’s increased stake in the PetroMonagas venture. BP received a dividend of $322m after deduction of the withholding tax, in July 2016. On the Macondo oil spill, the charge taken for the Q4 16 pre-tax was $530m. This reflects BP’s latest estimates for claims including business economic loss. The pre-tax cash outflow on costs related to the oil spill for the full year 2016 was $7.1bn. Cash flow Excluding the Gulf of Mexico payment, the operating cash flow was $4.5bn. Underlying operating cash flow excluding the oil spill-related payment was $17.8bn for the full year. Proceeds during the year and the scrip dividend were not enough to cover capex and the cash dividend. Gearing at the end of the year increased to 27% ($35.5bn debt), in the high range of the group’s target of 20-30%. Organic capital was $16bn, below original guidance of $17bn to $19bn. Capex in 2017 should be close to $16-17bn. Divestment proceeds should be higher in 2017, close to $5bn and then reducing by $2-3bn per year after 2018. The total costs of the Deepwater payment should fall to $2bn in 2018 and then $1bn per year as from 2019. In 2017, this should be close to $5bn. All in all, including the latest acquisitions, cash flow break-even should be close to $60/bbl in 2017.
Share & share alike
14 Feb 17
The rally in the last fortnight, highlighted in the table, reflects a continued flow of positive updates and economic news. The FTSE 250, Small cap and Fledgling indices have reached record highs. We are in the lull ahead of results for those companies with a December year end, a welter of economic data regarding the UK economy, the State of the Union address in the US on 28 February and the UK Budget on Wednesday 8 March. We will learn at that stage the latest forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility. As highlighted previously, the reaction to corporate updates will continue to set the tone.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Feb 17
Enquest (ENQ LN): Speculative Buy, £0.65: Kraken FPSO in the field and hooked up in the North Sea | Ithaca Energy (IAE LN/CN)6: BUY, £1.40: Stella First Hydrocarbons in the North Sea | Bowleven (BLVN LN) (not covered): Denies claims made by Crown Ocean Capital