Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD
FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD
Panmure Research - Flash 07-12-15
07 Dec 15
Despite rumours of an increase in the group production target, the official OPEC communiqué did not even reference the 30mmbd target set in December 2011. OPEC is anticipating a better balance to the market in 2016, referencing anticipated demand growth of 1.3mmbd and a YOY fall in non-OPEC production, coupled with uncertainty over how much volume Iran will actually be able to add to the market, once sanctions are removed. All the signs are that this was an acrimonious meeting. We are sceptical about the volume Iran will add to the market, hence we do anticipate a significant tightening in 2016.
Panmure Research - Flash 27-11-15
27 Nov 15
Today is the anniversary of OPEC's decision to change strategy. In a week's time OPEC will meet again and the odds look very low for a reversal of the current strategy, despite the cost associated with it. In the absence of OPEC action, rebalancing is coming on the back of higher demand and stalled or potentially declining non-OPEC supply. Despite the very large inventory build over the last two years, prospective OECD days forward cover is actually set to fall, in response to increased demand forecasts and the tighter outlook for the supply/demand balance. In the absence of a concrete decision to curtail output next Friday, possible tells that OPEC may be contemplating a more proactive role would include calling the next meeting for Spring, raising the current 30mmbbl group target, and allocating the target to individual members. We remain tactically cautious on the sector, but when the turn comes, we expect it to be sharp. The average upside to Target Price for our coverage is 143%.
Panmure Research - Flash 24-11-15
24 Nov 15
Rockhopper and FOGL have announced an agreed all share merger at an implied 11% premium to FOGL's closing share price. Rockhopper's management will run the enlarged Group. The announcement indicates FOGL was in a much weaker financial position than we expected. The combination should facilitate potential unitisation on Sea Lion and farm-out discussions, making it more likely, in our view that commercial production will be established offshore the Falklands. This deal makes a lot of sense to us and has been facilitated by the damage the Humpback well did to FOGL. On a pro-forma basis we estimate the combined entity will have a risked NAV per share of 86p per share. We cut our current Target Price on FOGL to 9.5p (from 13.0p) and our recommendation to Hold (from Buy).
Panmure Research - Oil and Gas 10-11-15
10 Nov 15
Following the failure of the Humpback well to prove commercial resources we are cutting our Target Prices (TPs) for Falkland Oil and Gas and Borders and Southern to reflect the negative impact on prospectivity in southern waters, offshore the Falklands. We upgrade FOGL from Sell to Buy, following the near halving in price since the announcement, but continue to believe Rockhopper offers far better value; we remain Buyers of Borders. Our revised TPs for FOGL and Borders are 13p per share and 7p per share respectively; our TP for Rockhopper is unchanged at 115p per share.
Panmure Research - Falkland Oil and Gas Limited Flash 16-10-15
16 Oct 15
FOGL has released preliminary results on the Humpback well. The well has currently reached a depth of 4,718m, penetrating the main target horizon. Oil and gas shows were recorded while drilling through the target and intermediate logs indicate the possible presence of hydrocarbon sandstone in 40m of net pay described as being of moderate porosity. The well is now being deepened but as a result of the higher than expected well cost, FOGL has had to assign a 32.5% interest in the deeper horizons to Noble in order to be carried by Noble. Further testing post TD may resolve the nature of the formation fluids. In our view, while this is not a definitive result it reads more negative than positive to us, and confirms that it has cost considerably more than initially expected. We are sellers of FOGL with a 16.5p/share Target Price.
Panmure Research - Oil and Gas 29-09-15
30 Sep 15
We amend our oil price and other macro forecasts to reflect a more extended rebalancing process in oil markets. Nevertheless we still anticipate a return to US$ 75/bbl Brent by 2018. Rebalancing is coming and it could be accelerated if financial stress forces existing non-OPEC supply out of the market more rapidly or if OPEC softens its position. We firmly believe that OPEC action remains a distinct possibility but probably not before the next scheduled meeting on 4 December. In the meantime we see short term price risk to the downside which keeps us tactically cautious on the sector. Reworking our estimates results in a 27% cut across our Target Prices but the upside remains large at 90% and our recommendations are unchanged. We expect the sector to outperform very sharply, as it did in 1999, once markets are convinced that a recovery in the oil price is imminent or underway.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
High grade, low cost gold
28 Nov 16
High grades and low costs mean that, in our view, Scotgold’s Cononish project could generate more than £14m a year in EBITDA. In addition to advancing funding discussions based on the compelling bankable feasibility study mine plan (which at £950/oz gold price and 8% WACC gives a project NPV of £43.0m), the company is exploring optimisation opportunities, as well as the potential for a phased approach requiring lower up front capital. We are resuming coverage with a Buy recommendation and target price of 2.2p