Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|18Jan16 07:30||RNS||Suspension - Falkland Oil & Gas Limited|
|18Jan16 07:00||RNS||Scheme of Arrangement becomes Effective|
|15Jan16 17:55||RNS||Court Sanction of Scheme of Arrangement|
|11Jan16 07:00||RNS||Oil Discovery at 14/20-2 exploration well|
|11Jan16 07:00||RNS||Drilling update - 14/20-2 (Isobel-2 Re-drill)|
|05Jan16 17:15||RNS||Result of Court and General Meeting|
|30Nov15 16:40||RNS||Second Price Monitoring Extn|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD
FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD
Panmure Research - Flash 07-12-15
07 Dec 15
Despite rumours of an increase in the group production target, the official OPEC communiqué did not even reference the 30mmbd target set in December 2011. OPEC is anticipating a better balance to the market in 2016, referencing anticipated demand growth of 1.3mmbd and a YOY fall in non-OPEC production, coupled with uncertainty over how much volume Iran will actually be able to add to the market, once sanctions are removed. All the signs are that this was an acrimonious meeting. We are sceptical about the volume Iran will add to the market, hence we do anticipate a significant tightening in 2016.
Panmure Research - Flash 27-11-15
27 Nov 15
Today is the anniversary of OPEC's decision to change strategy. In a week's time OPEC will meet again and the odds look very low for a reversal of the current strategy, despite the cost associated with it. In the absence of OPEC action, rebalancing is coming on the back of higher demand and stalled or potentially declining non-OPEC supply. Despite the very large inventory build over the last two years, prospective OECD days forward cover is actually set to fall, in response to increased demand forecasts and the tighter outlook for the supply/demand balance. In the absence of a concrete decision to curtail output next Friday, possible tells that OPEC may be contemplating a more proactive role would include calling the next meeting for Spring, raising the current 30mmbbl group target, and allocating the target to individual members. We remain tactically cautious on the sector, but when the turn comes, we expect it to be sharp. The average upside to Target Price for our coverage is 143%.
Panmure Research - Flash 24-11-15
24 Nov 15
Rockhopper and FOGL have announced an agreed all share merger at an implied 11% premium to FOGL's closing share price. Rockhopper's management will run the enlarged Group. The announcement indicates FOGL was in a much weaker financial position than we expected. The combination should facilitate potential unitisation on Sea Lion and farm-out discussions, making it more likely, in our view that commercial production will be established offshore the Falklands. This deal makes a lot of sense to us and has been facilitated by the damage the Humpback well did to FOGL. On a pro-forma basis we estimate the combined entity will have a risked NAV per share of 86p per share. We cut our current Target Price on FOGL to 9.5p (from 13.0p) and our recommendation to Hold (from Buy).
Panmure Research - Oil and Gas 10-11-15
10 Nov 15
Following the failure of the Humpback well to prove commercial resources we are cutting our Target Prices (TPs) for Falkland Oil and Gas and Borders and Southern to reflect the negative impact on prospectivity in southern waters, offshore the Falklands. We upgrade FOGL from Sell to Buy, following the near halving in price since the announcement, but continue to believe Rockhopper offers far better value; we remain Buyers of Borders. Our revised TPs for FOGL and Borders are 13p per share and 7p per share respectively; our TP for Rockhopper is unchanged at 115p per share.
Panmure Research - Falkland Oil and Gas Limited Flash 16-10-15
16 Oct 15
FOGL has released preliminary results on the Humpback well. The well has currently reached a depth of 4,718m, penetrating the main target horizon. Oil and gas shows were recorded while drilling through the target and intermediate logs indicate the possible presence of hydrocarbon sandstone in 40m of net pay described as being of moderate porosity. The well is now being deepened but as a result of the higher than expected well cost, FOGL has had to assign a 32.5% interest in the deeper horizons to Noble in order to be carried by Noble. Further testing post TD may resolve the nature of the formation fluids. In our view, while this is not a definitive result it reads more negative than positive to us, and confirms that it has cost considerably more than initially expected. We are sellers of FOGL with a 16.5p/share Target Price.
Panmure Research - Oil and Gas 29-09-15
30 Sep 15
We amend our oil price and other macro forecasts to reflect a more extended rebalancing process in oil markets. Nevertheless we still anticipate a return to US$ 75/bbl Brent by 2018. Rebalancing is coming and it could be accelerated if financial stress forces existing non-OPEC supply out of the market more rapidly or if OPEC softens its position. We firmly believe that OPEC action remains a distinct possibility but probably not before the next scheduled meeting on 4 December. In the meantime we see short term price risk to the downside which keeps us tactically cautious on the sector. Reworking our estimates results in a 27% cut across our Target Prices but the upside remains large at 90% and our recommendations are unchanged. We expect the sector to outperform very sharply, as it did in 1999, once markets are convinced that a recovery in the oil price is imminent or underway.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Opuama production restarts
21 Feb 17
Eland has confirmed the successful restart of exports from OML 40 through the new shipping alternative that it has implemented. Sales from the export terminal are expected imminently, re-establishing cash generation for Eland. Cash at YE16 was US$11.1m which has since reduced to US$5.9m, mainly reflecting initial operating expenses for the shipping alternative. While it is early days, Eland has demonstrated its ability to restart exports and production from OML 40 following the shut-down of the Forcados terminal a year ago. Production to date is averaging around 7kbd and we expect that to ramp up as Opuama operational performance improves. At US$55/bbl Brent, we estimate Eland is generating a net cash margin of around US$25/bbl. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and 95p per share Target Price.
Small Cap Breakfast
24 Feb 17
GBGI—Schedule One update from integrated provider of international benefits insurance. Raising £32m at 150p. Admission expected tomorrow. Anglo African Oil & Gas— Admission expected early March. Acquiring stake in producing near offshore field in the Republic of the Congo. Guinness Oil & Gas Exploration—Publication of prospectus. Seeking to raise £50m and invest in 15 exploration companies at launch, with plans to grow the portfolio to 30 positions during its lifetime. Issue closing 23 Feb.
Operating update and shareholder activism
15 Feb 17
December and January have seen the emergence of shareholder activism at Bowleven (BLVN), bringing its strategy and management into greater focus. Its largest shareholder (Crown Ocean Capital, COC) evolved from being a supportive shareholder to voting against a number of resolutions at the December AGM, to recently calling for the widespread removal of the board and a radically different company structure. Operationally, the company reports that a new development concept is under review by the stakeholders in Etinde, where production would be piped to existing gas processing facilities in Equatorial Guinea. Such a solution would (if approved) require significantly less capex and could be brought online relatively quickly vs other solutions (fertiliser, FLNG, gas to power). We leave our valuation largely unchanged, save for a revision to cash holding to reflect the recent operational update. Our new core NAV is 49p/share.