Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|18Jan16 07:30||RNS||Suspension - Falkland Oil & Gas Limited|
|18Jan16 07:00||RNS||Scheme of Arrangement becomes Effective|
|15Jan16 17:55||RNS||Court Sanction of Scheme of Arrangement|
|11Jan16 07:00||RNS||Oil Discovery at 14/20-2 exploration well|
|11Jan16 07:00||RNS||Drilling update - 14/20-2 (Isobel-2 Re-drill)|
|05Jan16 17:15||RNS||Result of Court and General Meeting|
|30Nov15 16:40||RNS||Second Price Monitoring Extn|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD
FALKLAND OIL & GAS LTD
Panmure Research - Flash 07-12-15
07 Dec 15
Despite rumours of an increase in the group production target, the official OPEC communiqué did not even reference the 30mmbd target set in December 2011. OPEC is anticipating a better balance to the market in 2016, referencing anticipated demand growth of 1.3mmbd and a YOY fall in non-OPEC production, coupled with uncertainty over how much volume Iran will actually be able to add to the market, once sanctions are removed. All the signs are that this was an acrimonious meeting. We are sceptical about the volume Iran will add to the market, hence we do anticipate a significant tightening in 2016.
Panmure Research - Flash 27-11-15
27 Nov 15
Today is the anniversary of OPEC's decision to change strategy. In a week's time OPEC will meet again and the odds look very low for a reversal of the current strategy, despite the cost associated with it. In the absence of OPEC action, rebalancing is coming on the back of higher demand and stalled or potentially declining non-OPEC supply. Despite the very large inventory build over the last two years, prospective OECD days forward cover is actually set to fall, in response to increased demand forecasts and the tighter outlook for the supply/demand balance. In the absence of a concrete decision to curtail output next Friday, possible tells that OPEC may be contemplating a more proactive role would include calling the next meeting for Spring, raising the current 30mmbbl group target, and allocating the target to individual members. We remain tactically cautious on the sector, but when the turn comes, we expect it to be sharp. The average upside to Target Price for our coverage is 143%.
Panmure Research - Flash 24-11-15
24 Nov 15
Rockhopper and FOGL have announced an agreed all share merger at an implied 11% premium to FOGL's closing share price. Rockhopper's management will run the enlarged Group. The announcement indicates FOGL was in a much weaker financial position than we expected. The combination should facilitate potential unitisation on Sea Lion and farm-out discussions, making it more likely, in our view that commercial production will be established offshore the Falklands. This deal makes a lot of sense to us and has been facilitated by the damage the Humpback well did to FOGL. On a pro-forma basis we estimate the combined entity will have a risked NAV per share of 86p per share. We cut our current Target Price on FOGL to 9.5p (from 13.0p) and our recommendation to Hold (from Buy).
Panmure Research - Oil and Gas 10-11-15
10 Nov 15
Following the failure of the Humpback well to prove commercial resources we are cutting our Target Prices (TPs) for Falkland Oil and Gas and Borders and Southern to reflect the negative impact on prospectivity in southern waters, offshore the Falklands. We upgrade FOGL from Sell to Buy, following the near halving in price since the announcement, but continue to believe Rockhopper offers far better value; we remain Buyers of Borders. Our revised TPs for FOGL and Borders are 13p per share and 7p per share respectively; our TP for Rockhopper is unchanged at 115p per share.
Panmure Research - Falkland Oil and Gas Limited Flash 16-10-15
16 Oct 15
FOGL has released preliminary results on the Humpback well. The well has currently reached a depth of 4,718m, penetrating the main target horizon. Oil and gas shows were recorded while drilling through the target and intermediate logs indicate the possible presence of hydrocarbon sandstone in 40m of net pay described as being of moderate porosity. The well is now being deepened but as a result of the higher than expected well cost, FOGL has had to assign a 32.5% interest in the deeper horizons to Noble in order to be carried by Noble. Further testing post TD may resolve the nature of the formation fluids. In our view, while this is not a definitive result it reads more negative than positive to us, and confirms that it has cost considerably more than initially expected. We are sellers of FOGL with a 16.5p/share Target Price.
Panmure Research - Oil and Gas 29-09-15
30 Sep 15
We amend our oil price and other macro forecasts to reflect a more extended rebalancing process in oil markets. Nevertheless we still anticipate a return to US$ 75/bbl Brent by 2018. Rebalancing is coming and it could be accelerated if financial stress forces existing non-OPEC supply out of the market more rapidly or if OPEC softens its position. We firmly believe that OPEC action remains a distinct possibility but probably not before the next scheduled meeting on 4 December. In the meantime we see short term price risk to the downside which keeps us tactically cautious on the sector. Reworking our estimates results in a 27% cut across our Target Prices but the upside remains large at 90% and our recommendations are unchanged. We expect the sector to outperform very sharply, as it did in 1999, once markets are convinced that a recovery in the oil price is imminent or underway.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Mar 17
Pacific Exploration & Production1,6 (PEN CN); BUY, C$72.00: 4Q16 results and improving outlook | Serinus Energy (SEN CN)1, 3; Speculative Buy, C$0.65: FY16 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN) (not covered): Final terms of a previously announced proposed capital restructuring | Tullow Oil (TLW LN): HOLD, £3.10: Right Issue at a discount & CNOOC exercises pre-emption rights in Uganda
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.
South Disouq spuds
20 Mar 17
SDX Energy announced this morning that it has spudded the South Disouq (SD-1X) well in Egypt, targeting gas and oil across a number of intervals. This is a high impact event for SDX Energy, as current company 2P reserves of 4.7mmboe (post acquisition) would be dwarfed by success at South Disouq (we model a 65mmboe field of which SDX holds 55% WI), which could be developed quickly due to existing pipeline infrastructure passing through the block. Our valuation for South Disouq is 6.8p/share, although on success we would expect notable de-risking. Our core NAV is 42p with a full NAV (including South Disouq) of 57p/share. The well is due to take 30-45 days, so we would expect a result in mid late April.