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|27/10/2016 09:57:58||London Stock Exchange||Notice of Interim Results|
|20/09/2016 10:14:29||London Stock Exchange||Result of AGM|
|08/09/2016 14:40:10||London Stock Exchange||Report on payments to the government|
|12/08/2016 13:53:22||London Stock Exchange||Annual General Meeting|
|25/07/2016 07:00:07||London Stock Exchange||Full Year Results Year ended 31 March 2016|
|04/07/2016 14:17:12||London Stock Exchange||Notification of full year results|
|13/06/2016 08:57:50||London Stock Exchange||Stepping down of Director|
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FY 2016 Results
25 Jul 16
GEEC has released its FY 2016 results. These show sales gas output impacted in H2 by offtake from key customer SAIL ISP, which the take-or-pay agreement (though adhered to) has not allowed to reach our forecast. Revenues are reported at US$29.4m versus our US$34.4m forecast, with SAIL ISP revenues US$8.7m behind expectations. GEEC has also adopted a new accounting treatment of its capitalised costs and interest due to its focus away from drilling and on commercialising its current well stock (discussed further below), causing higher costs in the P&L in these results due to lower capitalisation. Stripping this effect out, PBT was US$5.9m versus our forecast US$9.7m with the impact from SAIL ISP being felt here. We have adjusted our forecasts based on revised sales gas expectations and the new accounting treatment. Going forward the outlook is much more positive. SAIL ISP is expected to be taking a higher, stabilised level of gas in September (an important event for the shares), and the wells have the ability to increase sales gas from the current 8.6mmcf/d to over 13.0mmcf/d in short order if there is sufficient immediate local demand. GEEC’s main focus is pursuing this and driving increased cash flow. The company’s cash flow growth potential remains undiminished, and it is on this that our retained Buy recommendation is based.
H1 FY 2016 results
30 Nov 15
GEEC has released its H1 FY 2016 results showing sales and profit numbers that support our revised full year forecasts. The company has also concluded an important deal with key offtaker SAIL ISP for a minimum offtake level on a take-or-pay basis helping underpin GEEC revenues in H2 and beyond. Based on these factors we are leaving our forecasts unchanged. GEEC has an existing inventory of 150 drilled and fracked wells which it can use to ramp up gas production and plans to drill a further 150 – all aimed at exploiting the 443bcf of 2P reserves on its Raniganj South block. Local industrial offtakers support gas prices in excess of US$10/mcf and this demand should allow the company to ramp up cash flow in the coming years. This process of the value embedded in the company’s reserves being demonstrated by increasing cash flows is the thesis that underpins our Buy recommendation on the stock.
19 Oct 15
GEEC has released a trading statement in advance of its H1 results to the end of September which are expected out in the coming weeks. This reports that sales of gas to the company’s largest offtaker (the state-run SAIL ISP steel plant) have been lower than expected in the first half due to operational issues at the offtaker’s facility. These are now being resolved with works expected to conclude by the end of November. Nevertheless GEEC now expects its results to miss market expectations and we have updated our forecasts accordingly.
Full Yr To 31 Mar Results
22 Jul 15
GEEC has released its FY 2015 results coming in ahead on earnings though behind on sales gas volumes and revenues. We have adjusted our FY 2016 forecast to reflect this holding earnings constant and also publish forecasts for FY 2017. Operationally the company’s optimisation programme continues to yield results and with wells continuing to ramp up production has risen from 12.4mmcf/d in December to 15.1mmcf/d currently. Key large offtakers SAIL ISP and SAIL DSP will be important for converting this production into revenues for GEEC. We have also taken this opportunity to adjust our NAV and this falls from 437p/share to 393p/share based on adjustments to our long term production profile. This is still way above current levels with the company’s 443bcf of 2P reserves putting it on a US$EV/2Pboe of 2.2x and our forecast FY 2016 earnings implying a PER of 5.3x. As such we believe the shares have fallen too far and GEEC’s reserves position, increasing production profile and cash generating ability make the shares a Buy at current levels.
Reserves and resources update
03 Jun 15
GEEC has released an update to the reserves and resources for its Raniganj South block in West Bengal. This shows increases in both categories on the back of more of the company’s current stock of 156 wells coming onstream and an increase in overall gas in place for the field based on production data.
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