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As part of a comprehensive refinancing, including up to EUR 50m in new equity, refinanced bank facilities and in addition a simplified corporate structure, Axactor is contemplating a EUR 160-200m bond issue to refinance AXA01. With maturities pushed into 2024, we see a greatly improved credit profile for AXA. We keep estimates largely unchanged, while seeing improved LTV and net leverage as a result of the refinancing.
Companies: Axactor ASA
Arctic Securities
Axactor (AXA) announced today it is buying Geveran’s 50% stake in co-owned Axactor Invest, refinancing its existing bond, bank and mezzanine facilities as well as completing a EUR 30-50m equity issue. Overall, we find these measures supportive for the equity story and expect Axactor to attract more interest going forward. As a consequence of these measures we reiterate our Buy recommendation and increase our target price to NOK 11 (9).
Axactor SE (AXA) published its Q3 report this morning and we found the numbers on the bright side. No additional revaluations within NPL and a EUR 5m reversal within REO’s underline that the markets are normalising and the outlook is more stable. However, AXA received a waiver for the NIBD/Cash EBITDA covenant also in Q3 and deleveraging is key in our view now. We have made fairly neutral estimate revisions and hence we keep our Buy and NOK 9 TP.
11%/28% higher collections from NPL and REO’s in Q3 Q3 EBITDA was EUR 30m vs ARCe at EUR 16m and margin improved Reversal of REO impairment of EUR 5m Neutral report, market expects refinancing
11%/28% higher collections from NPL and REO’s in Q3 Q3 EBITDA was EUR 30m vs ARCe at EUR 16m and margin improved EPS in Q3 came in at EUR 0.02 vs ARCe/cons at -0.01/0.00 Reversal of REO impairment of EUR 5m
Axactor reports Q3 on October 28th and we look forward to an update from the company. We have increased collections in 2H 2020 by EUR 15m ahead of Q3 following a swifter recovery than anticipated in July. Axactor now trades at a 2020e Price/Book of 0.45x, 10x 2021e EPS and 5x EV/Cash EBITDA. We continue to see higher risk and dependency on a few markets, but still find risk/reward attractive. We reiterate Buy and our NOK 9 target price for now.
Axactor SE (AXA) published its Q2 report this morning and the figures were not as bad as we feared. As expected, revaluations characterised the Q2 result and we view the breach of bank covenants as undramatic in the short term. That said, AXA is dependent on a recovery in 2H, particularly in Spain. Following moderate estimate revisions and continued uncertainty for the entire sector, we keep our Buy recommendation and NOK 9 TP unchanged for now.
Better Q2 than feared, Cash EBITDA of EUR 44.4m EUR 53m in impairments, significant reduction in BV for REO Covenant waiver for the RCF facility in Q2 and Q3 secured Supportive report and the bond price should strengthen a few cash points ]
Q2 EBITDA was negative and Cash EBITDA soft following impairments NPL revaluations of EUR 27m, equivalent to 2.4% of BV REO impairments of EUR 26m, equivalent to 22.7% (!) of BV Waiver to meet leverage ratio (bank covenant) in Q2 and Q3
Axactor reports Q2 on July 23rd and following the pandemic we find estimate uncertainty to be greater than normal. The significant changes in the collection outlook, along with the lack of revaluations in Q1, points towards a significant write-down in Q2. We have assumed EUR 60m/5% of BV in our estimates. 2020 will be a lost year for the industry and appears to be more than priced in as far as we can tell. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and NOK 9 target price.
Axactor SE (AXA) published its Q1 report this morning and core earnings were on the weak side following negative impact from the Covid-19 epidemic, primarily in Spain. We have lowered collections further as we see Q2 being harder hit and Q3 depending on how long the shutdown lasts. We hope for a swift recovery sometime in the second half. Following negative estimate revisions and a very weak near-term outlook, we lower our target price to NOK 9 (12).
AXA’s Q1 EBITDA/Cash EBITDA was soft following lower NPL collections FX gain of EUR 9.6m and unrestricted cash positon of EUR 46.1m RCF extended by one year, bond to be refinanced by Q1/21 Bond is trading at distressed levels with a risk covenant breach
AXA’s Q1 EBITDA/Cash EBITDA was soft following lower NPL collections FX gain of EUR 9.6m result in a net profit EUR 3.5m AXA has EUR 49m in cash and RCF extended 1 year to December 2021 Potential impairments in Q2/20, may challenge covenants
Axactor reports Q1 on Tuesday April 21st and we have tried to account for how the Covid-19 epidemic will affect the P&L. With Spain and Italy being hardest hit in Europe, we expect this has had and will have a negative impact in 2020. On the positive side the company has just issued equity and is in a better position to cope with headwind. In addition, we view the shareholder action taken and change of CEO as positive for the investment case.
Axactor SE (AXA) published its Q4 report on Wednesday and the figures largely in line with our estimates and the trading update already given in connection with the private placement last week. We have increased capex to EUR 400m and see a potential increase if additional funding is secured. Management indicated that they are following the bond market closely and might tap it in the near future.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Axactor ASA. We currently have 0 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
IP Group’s NAV declined by 13% in total return (TR) terms in FY23, affected by continued soft valuations across venture capital (VC) markets, as well as funding delays at some of its holdings. That said, management indicated that many of IP Group’s portfolio companies continued to make strong progress. Its maturing portfolio offers a number of potential NAV triggers and is now available at a wide 59% discount to NAV. We note that, as at end-2023, only 14% of IP Group’s portfolio was valued based
Companies: IP Group plc
Edison
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Canaccord Genuity
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
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Hardman & Co
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Liberum
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Hybridan
Braemar’s FY24 trading update was in line with expectations, with revenues of c £150m and underlying operating profit of c £18m. Underlying operations continue to expand and diversify and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying estimates for FY24 and FY25, but edge down the valuation based on the lower
Companies: Braemar PLC
Trinity Delta view: The proprietary pre|CISION platform is key to Avacta’s investment case, hence updated data that continue to support key hypotheses for AVA6000 are reassuring. Future efficacy data from studies planned to start in H224 will be key, and could also help to more broadly validate pre|CISION. The recent £31.1m fundraise (March 2024 Lighthouse), which provides a cash runway of c 24 months ie into early 2026, will be used to advance the therapeutics pipeline, in particular AVA6000, a
Companies: Avacta Group PLC
Trinity Delta
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Cavendish
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Capital Access Group
hVIVO has delivered FY 2023A results in-line with the 30 January 2024 TU, with total customer revenues of £56m, growth of 16% versus 2022A. Other income related to tax credits added another £2.6m. 2024 revenue guidance of £62m has been reiterated, representing 11% growth over 2023A, and ahead of the £60m that we had previously forecast. The company has good visibility with the 2024 figure, with 90% already being covered by the existing orderbook (stands at £80m at the end of 2023), as well as in
Companies: hVIVO plc
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Deltic Energy plc (DELT.L) has announced some positive news concerning its 50% interest in the Selene joint-venture with Shell UK Ltd. The announcement concerns a farm-out to Dana Petroleum Ltd of a 25% interest in Licence P2437 which contains the Selene prospect. The farm-out calls for Deltic retaining a highly meaningful 25% interest in one of the most interesting prospects in terms of risk profile and scale in the Southern North Sea (SNS) Basin while largely eliminating exposure to the cost o
Allenby Capital
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