We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SPR TRI
The FY18 results were disappointing, with profits coming in below forecasts. Guidance has been reduced, with headwinds in the retail sector prompting management to take a more prudent view on the pipeline conversion rate and the time taken for contracts to go live. Our EPS forecasts are reduced by 13% and 15% in FY19 and FY20. Despite these reductions, we expect the Group to continue to grow rapidly, driven by the ongoing growth trend in online retail. Near term forecasts should also benefit from FY18 contract wins reaching full run rate and cost savings (the Group incurred a number of non-recurring costs in FY18). Our new EPS forecasts imply growth of 16% and 13% and 15% (new forecast year in FY21). We set our target price at 395p (implied FY1 P/E rating of 22x, falling to 20x) and re-introduce a Buy recommendation.
Companies: Clipper Logistics PLC
A G Barr (BAG LN) Broadly satisfactory H1 update | Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Share price reaction overdone | Devro (DVO LN) Mixed interims | Directa Plus (DCTA LN) Graphene producer with commercial momentum | Hargreaves Services (HSP LN) Trading well; strategic progress | StatPro Group (SOG LN) Strong Revolution ARR growth, but cancellations still higher than usual
Companies: BAG CLG DVO DCTA HSP SOG
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Retail headwinds prompt downgrades despite strong pipeline | Dialight (DIA LN) H1: Getting to grips with manufacturing issues | GlobalData (DATA LN) Ahead on revenue, profit and cash | River and Mercantile Group (RIV LN) AuM +3% in Q4, plenty of positives | RM Secured Direct Lending (RMDL LN) Critical mass achieved | Springfield Properties (SPR LN) Significant land agreement increases GDV by 17%
Companies: CLG DIA DATA RIV RMDL SPR
Jadestone Energy (JSE.TO)—an independent oil and gas production and development company focused on the Asia-Pacific region. Pro-forma production of 13.9 mboe/d, 2P reserves of 45.3 MMboe, and a 2P NPV10 of US$563.7 million . Offer TBA. Current mkt cap C$135m. Due early August.
CentralNic-Schedule 1 from the business operating in proprietary retail platforms selling domain names and associated web presence services including hosting and email on a subscription basis, has acquired KeyDrive S.A which constitutes a RTO. Raising £24m at 52p, combined market cap of £88.7m
Trackwise—established business that manufactures specialist products using printed circuit technology. £5.5m primary and £1.45m sell down at 105p. Mkt Cap £15.5m. Due 31 July
Ovoca Gold (to be renamed Ovoca Bio PLC) - RTO of IVIX, a Russian company developing a drug candidate for the treatment of female sexual dysfunctions. No monies to be raised, market cap of £8.5m, due 30 July
Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
Companies: NASA FOXT CLG ARIX THR MSMN RMP DKL GAN PHC
Bagir Group (BAGR LN) Agreement with Sizer app to launch online made-to-measure | Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Momentum in contract wins and strong pipeline | MJ Gleeson (GLE LN) Momentum continues to build, growth aspirations on track | MySale Group (MYSL LN) Excellent start to year - KPIs all trending up, sales growth accelerating | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) Substantial opportunity in the DMD space | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) Q3 results; interim PhaseOut DMD data due Q1 2018
Companies: SUMM GLE BAGR MYSL CLG
Clipper has issued an in line trading update this morning, confirming that revenue and operating profit continued to grow in H1. We have updated our forecasts ahead of the interim results, nudging down our FY’18 FD adj. EPS forecast by 2%, with FY’19 unchanged. We have also introduced a new FY’20 forecast year, implying EPS growth of 16%. Our significant growth forecasts (EPS growth of 16%-31% in each forecast year) are underpinned by a strong contract pipeline. We leave our recommendation and target price unchanged for now, but as we see more evidence that the strong pipeline is converting we will look to take a more positive view.
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Hold as we wait for upgrades to materialise | ECO Animal Health Group (EAH LN) Full year results ahead of expectations | Northgate (NTG LN) Mixed outlook, but shares now undervalued | Retail Negative consumer indicators but scope for inflation to flatten | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) Ridinilazole: potential to address an unmet need
Companies: REDD SUMM CLG EAH
Clipper’s share price has had a very strong run (+30%) since our initiation note last year. The shares trade at 411p, slightly behind our target price and trading on an FY’17 P/E rating of 34x, falling to 24x in FY’18. We expect an in line set of results for the year ended 30th April 2017. We have high hopes for the Group’s Click and Collect offering, but now expect a pause for breath as investors wait for expected forecast upgrades to materialise. We therefore move to Hold from Buy whilst remaining supportive of management, the strategy and the Group’s long term potential.
Clipper delivered a solid set of interim results yesterday, with significant revenue and profit growth continuing in all divisions. Our initiation note in September identified the Group’s Click and Collect offering and contract win momentum as two future earnings catalysts. Over the Black Friday/Cyber Monday period, Clipper has proven its Click and Collect capabilities and we see potential for a number of significant Click and Collect contract wins in early to mid Cal. ’17. We also increasingly see potential for growth in the European business where the management team has been strengthened with a renewed focus on e-fulfilment. With a number of opportunities already in discussion, we expect contract win momentum to build in the region. We reaffirm our Buy recommendation and upgrade our target price from 370p to 400p, implying an FY’18 P/E rating of 27x.
As flagged in the H1 trading update in November, trading for the first half of the year was in line with expectations, with further significant growth in revenue (up 16.5%) and PBT (up 25.5%). The outlook statement is positive, with the new business pipeline at a strong level and the Board expecting positive momentum to continue into the second half. Clipper’s share price has performed well since our initiation note in September and is now near our target price of 370p. We will look to review our valuation after the analyst meeting, but we believe the medium term outlook for Clipper is positive, with further contract win potential supported by continued growth in online retail.
Blackstone/GSO Loan Financing (BGLF LN) CLO refinancing outlook | Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Interims highlight further significant growth | Grainger (GRI LN) Final results in line, further progress on PRS investment pipeline | Vernalis (VER LN) AGM statement in line with expectations | WYG (WYG LN) Order book strength underpins FY expectations
Companies: GRI VER WYG BGLF CLG
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Today's news & views, plus announcements from TSCO, AVON, BGO, MERC, BOXE
Companies: Bango plc
Gateley’s H1 update is highly impressive, confirming a year on year improvement in activity levels in September and October and a strong sense of optimism at the beginning of H2. The Platforms continue to drive new business, whilst operating margins have benefited from cost actions taken in response to the pandemic (H1 PBT will show growth year on year). In light of the confident tenor of the statement, we reintroduce headline forecasts this morning, assuming stable revenue this year - which would be a considerable achievement - with profits returning to pre-pandemic levels by FY23.
Companies: Gateley (Holdings) Plc
In an encouraging H1 update, Gateley has detailed that the Group’s activity levels and revenue generation continue to follow an improving trend with monthly activity during September and October being in excess of prior year. Sales in H1 2021E are expected to be not less than £50.0m (-3.5% on H1 2020) but adj. PBT is expected to be not less than £7.0m, up from £6.6m as cost-reduction initiatives benefited. Net cash was £9.6m at October 2020. We have reinstated forecasts, assuming H2 sees some increase in costs as salaries normalise and a bonus is accrued before more normal growth rates resume. Similarly, we assume dividends resume with a final in FY 2021E. We reiterate our view that Gateley’s proven model provides good growth prospects, supported by the addition of high-quality staff and acquisitions, strengthening the range of services offered.
In its trading update, management confirmed that adjusted FY20e PBT is expected to be c €52m, a 27% increase y-o-y and 12.7% ahead of our prior estimate, with revenues of €367m, 0.5% ahead of our prior estimate. FY20e margins of 14.2% vs 12.5% in FY19 are driven by improved operational leverage and tight cost control, together with COVID-19 related cost reduction (eg marketing, travel). Having pared back our forecasts at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, we now upgrade our FY20 estimates for a second time to reflect the significantly stronger margins in H220e, raising our FY21 estimates and introducing our FY22 estimates. We have also incorporated the US$32m acquisition of the LA-based marketing services business, gnet. With substantial financial resources following its £100m placing in May, management remains focused on its M&A agenda.
Companies: Keywords Studios plc
Boku has released a trading update confirming that EBITDA is likely to be ahead of consensus expectations for FY20. As most of the upside is due to COVID-19-related cost savings, we have upgraded our FY20 EBITDA and EPS forecasts by 10% and 15%, respectively. We leave our FY21/22 forecasts unchanged, pending a more detailed trading update in January that will cover the busy December holiday season.
Companies: BOKU, Inc.
Pressure Technologies has announced that it has raised £7.5m through a Placing, via an accelerated bookbuild, and PrimaryBid offer at 60p/share, a 4% discount to the closing midmarket price on 27th November 2020. The net proceeds of the fundraise will be used to accelerate growth in the fast developing hydrogen market, build the group’s capability in Integrity Management and to strengthen the balance sheet. As Nomad and Broker to the fundraise we are restricted and can therefore provide factual comment only. The Placing and PrimaryBid offer are subject to shareholder approval at a General Meeting to be held on 17th December 2020.
Companies: Pressure Technologies plc
President Trump likes to project himself as a highly successful businessman, but surprisingly little is known about his true financial position. Various articles, including a 2016 in-depth analysis by The Wall Street Journal, have speculated about his income and asset base. All sorts of claims and counter-claims have been made about his wealth – by Trump himself, pitching his fortune at some $9bn, and by journalist Timothy O'Brien, suggesting that it is as “low” as $150m-$250m. It is doubtful whether we shall ever know the truth, but we can use Trump’s UK corporate filings to gain an insight into his businesses in Scotland.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
FY2020E has been a challenging year on a number of fronts and a significant loss is expected on revenues down 12% at c.£25m and also impairment charges of c.£14m. Nevertheless, the Group enters FY2021E in better underlying shape, with benefits to follow from reorganisation and restructuring, and investment in sales, engineering capability and systems. This provides a platform to capture growth, albeit that no recovery is expected in the next 12 months in the oil & gas market, now c.35% of FY2021E revenue. Efforts to diversify both its customer base and end markets have been successful, with growing opportunity in the defence, industrial and hydrogen sectors in particular. Our forecasts anticipate profitable growth in both FY2021E and FY2022E, leaving the shares on forward PERs of 21.8x and 12.1x for FY2021E and FY2022E respectively.
Keystone Law has announced a trading update indicating that the Group has performed well through the second half of the year and that like-for-like performance has returned to near pre-COVID levels. This results in the Group expecting to see results “comfortably ahead of current market expectations” for FY21 which we see as a strong message and reiterate our buy rating.
Companies: Keystone Law Group Plc
Appreciate is the UK's leading voucher, gift card, and e-code provider, working with brands from Iceland to Halfords to Boots. It sells its pre-paid products to corporates as well as directly to consumers. It also runs the UK's largest Christmas Savings scheme, having helped some 2.7m families put money aside for Christmas expenses over the years.
In Appreciate, we see a business that's undergone significant change and modernisation since 2018. Under its highly competent and dynamic management team it has transformed from a Christmas savings business that physically produced hampers, to a pure play financial services business with material growth prospects in the longer term.
Companies: Appreciate Group plc
Oxford University and AstraZeneca announced the first interim analysis from the Phase III study of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, which was found to be 70% effective in preventing COVID-19. This follows similar announcements from Moderna, and Pfizer/BioNTech in the previous two weeks, and the caveats we mentioned at the time remain the same. While all of these results have been highly encouraging, we reiterate that they do not diminish the urgent need for COVID-19 treatments and testing, which will be required for years to come. We consider Synairgen, Avacta, genedrive, Omega Diagnostics and Open Orphan to offer good buying opportunities.
Companies: AVCT ODX SNG GDR ORPH
Braemar’s associate AqualisBraemar (AQUA-OSL) announced an acquisition and equity raise yesterday that was very well received by investors. The AQUA share price finished the day up +25%, meaning Braemar’s stake (which is on the balance sheet at £7m) is now worth £13.4m. This provides increased support to Braemar’s valuation and a significant potential source of funds if the stake were to be realised in the future. In the meantime, it provides a useful and increasing source of dividend income (prior to yesterday’s deal, we had forecast £0.6m dividend income p.a.) and we continue to highlight the strategic progress the new management team at Braemar is making and the very significant valuation gap to closest peer Clarkson (December 2021 P/E 22x).
Companies: Braemar Shipping Services plc
Rhino’s second series of 5-year bonds offers exposure to a private company with an enticing set of characteristics, combining significant growth potential with proven ability to deliver over a 40-year history. Having spent several years shifting its business model away from capital-intensive production towards closely controlled licensing, and then investing heavily in increasing exposure at the top level of international rugby, Rhino is in a position to generate significant free cashflow to service this 5.5% coupon and offer attractive growth potential, further strengthening debt serviceability ratios.
Companies: Rhino Rugby Bonds Plc
RBG Holdings has updated on significant transactions completed in the Group’s Convex and LionFish divisions since its last market update in mid-September. With the Group’s legal division – RBL – continuing to trade well, management now have considerably improved visibility on financial performance, and so reinstate guidance with an expected FY20E revenue range of £24m-£26m (FY19A: £23.7m). For FY21E we anticipate revenue in the range of £26m-£29m We take this opportunity to reinstate our forecasts for both FY20E and FY21E; revenues of £24.6m / £26.9m, adj EBITDA £6.8m / £8.9m, adj EPS 5.0p / 6.8p respectively. Our forecasts are cautiously positioned towards the bottom end of guidance, with scope for upgrades when discretionary litigation asset sales or Convex transactions complete. On our FY21E forecast of 6.8p adj EPS, a mid-teens multiple of 15x PER implies the shares could be worth 100p.
Companies: RBG Holdings Plc
WEY has delivered an impressive set of results this morning, significantly ahead YoY, meaningfully outpacing our expectations on the revenue, profit and EPS lines. With strong revenue growth of 38% feeding through to 103% EBITDA growth and adj. EPS up 100%, the inherent efficiency of the model, supported by rising student numbers, is manifest. Educating ‘3,000' students, WEY is larger than any UK secondary school. Moreover, while providing a collegiate, online education, WEY is a clear beneficiary both of long-running and fundamental drivers, and of the current Covid-focused environment. With the benefits of past investment effectively displayed in today's results, the company continues to do more to grow its platform, present and future, and has highlighted an ongoing commitment to investing in the business to provide further support for future profit acceleration. Our Fair Value assessment is 34p per share.
Companies: Wey Education PLC