Termination of coverage

We are terminating coverage of Epigenomics AG. Investors should not rely on any previous research or forecasts.

Cancer - Strategy for affordable care

The cancer burden is growing globally. Each year >18 million people are diagnosed, nearly 10 million die and the estimated economic cost exceeds $1 trillion. From early diagnosis to late-stage disease, cancer care often involves inappropriate or unnecessary interventions that drive costs but provide limited clinical benefit. Coupled with an increased understanding of cancer biology and rapid technological advances, this has been driving momentum for precision medicine, leading to patient and soc

Underlying growth momentum continues

Epigenomics reported H1/2019 revenues of €679k, down 12% YoY and below our €1.4m estimate, due largely to a reduction in licensing revenue resulting from termination of the collaboration with Chinese partner BioChain. Importantly, the latter was partly offset by an 84% YoY increase in product revenue from Epi proColon, and we expect solid underlying growth momentum to continue throughout H2/2019E. Management adjusted FY2019 financial outlook to €2.0m - €4.0m (from €3.0m - €6.0m), due to the dela

Key catalysts to fuel growth throughout 2019

Epigenomics reported Q1/2019 sales of €331k (7% YoY), driven largely by a 198% YoY increase in product revenue, which was in part offset by lower licensing revenue due to the recently announced termination of the collaboration with Chinese licensing partner BioChain. We expect solid underlying growth momentum to continue throughout 2019, with back-end loaded revenue generation in Q3 and Q4 fuelled by a number of commercial as well as regulatory catalysts that can unlock significant sales potenti

2018 results highlight strong underlying growth momentum

Having reached a number of critical milestones throughout 2018, Epigenomics reported FY2018 product sales of 0.8m (47% YoY), highlighting the company's strong underlying growth momentum. While total sales of €1.5m (-18% YoY) were slightly below our revenue expectations, largely due to a reduction in licensing revenue associated with a one-off patent sale in Q4/2017, product sales in Q4/2018 increased by 7% YoY. We are revising our sales forecasts for FY2019E and out-years as a result of the rece

Q3 -Milestone completion triggers more commercial momentum

Epigenomics reported solid Q3 sales of €0.5m (57% YoY) and narrowed its FY2018E revenue forecast to €1.5m - €2.5m, slightly below our estimates. We expect revenue generation to be catalysed by the variety of positive recent news flow, such as the successful CE-marking of HCCBloodTest, the latest addition to Epigenomic's growing portfolio of liquid biopsy tests, which allows for blood-based detection of liver cancer. This will add to the increasing momentum around Epi proColon with reimbursement

Strong tailwinds expected from Epi proLiver

Epigenomic's growing portfolio of liquid biopsy tests represents strong commercial potential. The company recently announced plans for a new test in their portfolio, to CE mark its mSEPT9 blood test for liver cancer. We expect this to happen by yearend 2018E, allowing for commercialisation in Europe. We are convinced about the positive commercial outlook of Epigenomic's liquid biopsy tests due to a differentiated profile, fast readouts, a large target markets and significant health-economic impa

Liver boost - less dependency on epiColon

The financial results were slightly better than we expected with disciplined cost management in R&D and SG&A. The main value of Epigenomics lies within the health economic value of its two main tests. We feel that investors are under appreciating the significant value to healthcare systems world-wide. The reimbursement is hinging on robust data and the demonstration of real cost savings. While the concept of avoiding metastatic liver and colon cancer by testing is clear, we believe. Thus, curren

Good entry point for the long term investor

Upgrade to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL. Our upgrade is driven by a significant share price decline, improvement in pricing and sufficient liquid assets to prepare for commercialisation in the US. While US reimbursement decision is a binary event and represents uncertainty for this region, the health economic value of this test is of significant value to healthcare systems world-wide. We see a potential takeover attempt from existing or new investors as a possible scenario. Thus, current trading leve

A satisfying US reimbursement price

The US CMS published their decision on test code and reimbursement price for Epi proColon on 22nd September. The decision means that the product is cross walked to test code 81287. The newly determined payments rates according to PAMA see the price increasing to $124 from $83, a 50% upside. This is an important milestone in the CMS reimbursement process which still needs to progress through national coverage determination following inclusion into medical guidelines. Given the need to see greater

Takeover price fair given commercial status of Epi proColon

The commercial take-off of Epi proColon is taking longer than forecast due to sluggish reimbursement and guideline progress in the US. This does not alter our fundamental view that this first ever blood-based diagnostic test for colon cancer is highly innovative and should find widespread use in time. Our forecasts have been adjusted down to take account of the slower adoption phase. The takeover offer of €7.52 per share looks acceptable and represents a reasonable premium to our target price gi

Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Epigenomics (ECX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Q316 results and business update

Epigenomics continues to execute on the commercial front. The US is now the main market for Epi proColon, the only FDA-approved, blood-based colorectal cancer screening test. Epi proColon US sales account for c 60% of total 9M16 revenues of €0.9m, 83% up y-o-y. The remainder come from Europe and other countries. Epigenomics recently raised c €5m in a private placement. It has five convertible notes, which mature by year-end 2016 and could raise an additional €2.6m, providing funding into 2017.

GGD&R......on track at Q3

Guidance, Guidelines, Distribution and Reimbursement ("GGD&R") are on target. Q3 guidance was comforting especially at the outset of the company's first product launch; Epi proColon the first ever blood-based screening test for colorectal cancer. Recent clarification of Epi proColon's specificity and sensitivity data in JAMA and introduction in the US of the Bipartisan 2016 Colorectal Cancer Detection Act strengthen the company's ability to achieve a place in US guidelines and improve the route

Half year results published

Epigenomics has announced H116 results, which highlight the launch of Epi proColon in the US jointly with Polymedco, the largest distributor of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests. Epi proColon has been included in the guidelines of the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), which underscores the potential of the test as a valid screening method for CRC and recognises the need for additional screening options. The test is also now commercially available through LabCorp’s website. The co

Warpaint London+ (W7L, House Stock at 375p) - Trading ahead of expectations - +10% upgrade implied

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Avon Protection - Unmasking its growth potential

Avon Protection’s capital markets day highlighted its continued focus on medium-term margin expansion (targeting operating margin of 14–16%), concentrating on its core business of respirators and head protection. The unwinding of the armour business, alongside the consolidation of Team Wendy (acquired in H220) should enable Avon to benefit from rising global defence spending. Its strong relationship with the US DoD, and organic growth opportunities with recurring revenue from necessary product r

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 15 April 24

15th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Change of Market: TheWorks (WRKS.L) a multi-channel value retailers of books, arts and crafts, stationery, toys and games, offering customers a differentiated propositio

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Morning Note – 8 April 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Hardman & Co Research: Tissue Regenix (TRX) - Six consecutive periods of >20% growth

TRX is focused on the development and commercialisation of two proprietary processing technologies for the repair of soft tissue (dCELL®) and bone (BioRinse®). It has a broad portfolio of products used in biosurgery, orthopaedics and dental markets. Investment in tissue processing, manufacturing capacity and strong commercial partners, together with its “4S” strategy, has generated six consecutive reporting periods of strong growth, with TRX turning EBITDA-positive in 2023. Further growth in 202

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences - H1 2024 interims: Executing a newly focussed st

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (CNS) has published its H1 2024 results to end September 2023. Group revenues grew 44% to £4.9m and gross profits increased by 63% to £3.1m, with the company benefitting from newfound operational efficiencies. With its now streamlined strategy focussing on the core Health & Nutrition business and the initial signs of an encouraging uptick in sales momentum, we believe the company is well positioned for growth that will help create future value for shareholders. We

Morning Note – 22 March 2024

Venture Life Group - Strong organic growth; focus on EBITDA

Venture Life has reported FY23 results to December 2023, following the February trading update. Revenues grew 17% in the year to £51.4m (our est. £50.7m) and adjusted EBITDA was £11.6m (our est. £11.6m). Cash conversion was 85%, generating £9.8m of cash from operations. Cash generation and no M&A in 2023 allowed the company to de-lever, closing FY23 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.3x. Management have focused on growth with three therapy areas generating double-digit revenue growth and onli

Creo Medical - Solid FY23 lays the groundwork for 2024

Creo Medical has released a trading update for FY23, an active year for the company, with progress made across all business segments. Traction improved in H223, following Speedboat Inject’s European clearance for upper gastrointestinal (GI) procedures and the accelerated approval and launch of Creo’s slimmest electrosurgical device, Speedboat UltraSlim. Top-line growth was supported by continued streamlining of the cost structure, resulting in a better-than-expected underlying EBITDA loss (impro

Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

Warpaint London + (W7L, House Stock at 382p) - Late-year sparkles– another double-digit upgrade to FY23F EPS

Zoetis Inc.: Launch Of CircoMatch & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (02/23)

Zoetis delivered a decent set of results for the last quarter of 2022 meeting analyst expectations as well as the high end of its management guidance. Despite the economic challenges, ongoing pandemic recovery, and the political unpredictability brought on by the war in Ukraine, they delivered operational growth for the year in each of their top 13 markets. The company's unique companion animal portfolio drove its 8% operational revenue increase for the year, growing 14% operationally. In compar