The pandemic has heavily impacted global uranium production, taking around 20% of global capacity offline, exacerbating the supply deficit and leading to users running down inventories at an even faster rate. The net effect has been a rising uranium price (up 32% YTD), but the managers of Geiger Counter (GCL) believe that there is still much more to go for.
Companies: Geiger Counter
The covid-19 pandemic has heavily impacted global uranium production, taking around 20% of global capacity offline. This has exacerbated the supply deficit, leading to users running down inventories at an even faster rate. The net effect has been a rising uranium price (up 32% so far in 2020), but the managers of Geiger Counter (GCL) believe that there is still much more to go for.
2018 saw a strong recovery in the uranium price. This has stalled this year, but with the uranium market now in supply deficit, Geiger Counter’s (GCL’s) managers see the potential for a resurgence in the price as more reactors come online (particularly in China and India), while major producers hold off from reactivating mothballed mines.
2018 saw a strong recovery in the uranium price. This has stalled this year, but with the uranium market now seeing more demand than supply, Geiger Counter’s (GCL’s) managers see the potential for a resurgence in the uranium price, as more nuclear reactors come online (particularly in China and India), while major producers hold off from returning mothballed mines to production.
Geiger Counter (GCL’s) managers see the potential for further recovery in the uranium price, as more reactors come on line (particularly in China and India, where governments are keen to reduce CO2 emissions) while major producers hold off from reactivating mothballed mines. This should help broaden the recovery in uranium stocks beyond just the majors, benefitting GCL’s portfolio and potentially allowing it to make up recent underperformance. The managers note that uranium is emerging from a 10-year bear market which has left valuations of uranium miners at attractive levels.
Geiger Counter (GCL’s) managers see the potential for further recovery in the uranium price, as more nuclear reactors come on line (particularly in China and India, where governments are keen to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions) while major producers hold off from reactivating mothballed mines (a low uranium price has seen a lot of uranium mining capacity removed from the market – see Figure 4 on page 7). This should help broaden the recovery in uranium stocks beyond just the major uranium companies, benefitting GCL’s portfolio, which is focused on smaller uranium companies, and potentially allowing it to make up recent underperformance. The managers note that uranium is emerging from a 10-year bear market which has left valuations of uranium miners at attractive levels.
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Avation is a lessor of 46 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. This morning, the group has released results for the 12-months to 30 June 2020, which illustrate the challenges faced by its customer base as a result of Covid-19, as well as the corrective actions taken by the Board that have resulted in profitability being maintained in the year as a whole. Loan repayment deferrals of c.$24.4m were obtained in the period, in comparison to $13.1m short-term rent deferrals being granted to airline customers and thus emphasising management's focus on liquidity during an unprecedented period for global airlines. Avation again reports that it is currently reviewing alternatives in relation to the 6.5% senior notes due in May 2021. Whilst at this point our forecasts remain under review, and near term challenges remain across the industry, we believe that demand for aircraft from lessors such as Avation will increase in time as a result of airlines being even more reliant upon aircraft leasing firms due to the retirement of older aircraft during 2020 in combination with much weaker balance sheets that are unable to support direct aircraft purchases.
Companies: Avation PLC
Marlowe has raised £30m in new equity to help finance the acquisition of Ellis Whittam (for £59m, all upfront). We update our forecasts to reflect this transaction, along with recent bolt-ons (FY22E EPS upgraded by 8% to 29.0p), and reaffirm our Buy recommendation.
Companies: Marlowe Plc
The current crisis is definitely unprecedented. Like most of its peers, not only did the group not make any extra provisions related to the pandemic but it released some provisions following an update to its macroeconomic scenario. The group also managed to mitigate the rate cut impact and generate 60bp of capital ahead of next year’s headwinds.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group plc
In another upbeat update, GHT has confirmed that the business is tracking in line, in turn being driven by strong traction with key customer, ANZ. Here, new sales have driven a 20% increase in contracted customer revenue to >£11m in FY21. As a strategic partner (deeply involved with GHT in bringing new Clareti banking services to market) this extra investment is very encouraging, as it’s indicative of these services‘ strong future potential. Also announced today – GHT state that its transition to a recurring subscription model (commenced just two years ago) is now complete and that ARR now stands at £11.9m, ~+16% annualised organic growth since FY20 y/e. In a tough new business environment, we view this as a highly credible performance. It’s also worth noting that management reference remaining pipeline opportunities, these would further benefit strong forwards visibility – already £22.4m for FY21. Given this – and also as sign of confidence – today we reinstate FY21 forecasts. We look for a reacceleration in top-line growth: +16% y/y to £28.7m at a Group level, in turn driven by c.+24% organic growth in Clareti, to £20m. For valuation – with Clareti still in its relative infancy – we continue to view a sales multiple as most appropriate. Here, we note that peers typically trade in a 5-7x range vs. GHT at 4x our FY21 estimate. This suggests 25-75% upside to fair value for this disruptive company, with a multi-year growth opportunity still ahead.
Companies: Gresham House
As expected following the US banks’ releases, Barclays’ third quarter results saw a sharp reduction in provisions build-up while the emergence of delinquencies has been delayed by the State’s supporting measures. Management continues to expect a reduction in the cost of risk next year. It remains to be seen if this guidance is capable of withstanding new lockdowns or a no-deal Brexit.
Companies: Barclays PLC
Agronomics has announced it has conditionally raised £10.0m gross from an equity issue at a price of 6.0p, which represents a 6.8% premium to the most recently reported NAV per share of 5.62p. Assuming the company's post-raise cash balance is £8.15m, after repaying a £1.9m bridging facility, we estimate the new NAV per share to be c5.7p. We see significant potential in the cultivated meat sector and believe Agronomics is well positioned to support this developing sector and generate strong returns from these investments. We see upside in Agronomics' portfolio and have today initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Companies: Agronomics Limited
There was an eclectic mix of property companies to feature in the top price movers for September. Top of the tree was private rented sector and residential development specialist Sigma Capital Group, with a 34.2% rise. The group launched a £1bn joint venture with EQT Real Estate, the real estate platform of global investment firm EQT, to deliver 3,000 private rental homes in Greater London. Micro-cap investor Panther Securities also hit double-digit gains, while Macau Property Opportunities saw an uplift in its share price after announcing debt refinancing and a disposal. CLS Holdings, the investor in offices in Germany, France and the UK, continued to see a recovery in its share price – which has risen 15.1% in the last three months. Off the back of solid results, Berlin residential landlord Phoenix Spree Deutschland saw its share price gain 7.2%. Schroder REIT’s share price rose 6.6% in the month as it embarked on a share buyback programme, while Irish commercial property investor Yew Grove REIT also saw positive shareholder reaction to amending its investment strategy to increase its target loan to value ratio to 40%.
Companies: SUPR DIGS CRC PSDL ASEI TPON RLE UKCM BREI BCPT RGL SIR SLI TOWN CAL
Agronomics is an investment company building a portfolio of investments in the developing alternative protein sector. The company is focused on early stage investments, offering attractive valuations and significant upside potential. Importantly, we believe Agronomics represents an opportunity for public investors to gain access to early stage private companies, which might not otherwise be available. We expect the cultivated meat sector to be driven by a number of global mega trends that will increase public awareness of the issues the sector is aiming to overcome. We see strong upside in Agronomics' existing portfolio and initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) Q3 trading update disclosed that Q3 was stronger than expected and FY20 earnings are likely to be well ahead of consensus forecasts. Loan repayment holidays in its Motor Finance and Retail Finance divisions were down remarkably and credit quality is not deteriorating. Loan demand is strengthening after the lockdown. Capital and liquidity remain good. The bank remains cautious due to continued COVID-19 and Brexit uncertainty and is still not providing formal guidance. We are upping our earnings forecasts and fair value from 1,704p to 1,756p. In our view, the valuation remains depressed compared to fundamentals with banking stocks still out of favour. STB trades on an FY20 P/BV of 0.53x, yet it has a strong track record of value creating returns (ROE above COE), a good capital base and liquidity. The Q3 good news reinforces our view that we are unlikely to see book value deterioration during this downturn to justify any NAV discount.
Companies: Secure Trust Bank Plc
Trading at MJ Hudson (MJH) has improved steadily since its March nadir, and visibility has improved. As such, we are reinstating forecasts, with Adj EBITDA of £5.5m and £6.7m in FY21E and FY22E respectively. We believe that MJH's material discount to its core peers (c30%) is unwarranted and consequently, update our rating to Buy (previously Under Review).
Companies: MJ Hudson Group Plc
Litigation Capital Management has announced FY20 results with gross profit up 7% to A$21.7m and PBT of A$9.2m, slightly behind expectations albeit the Group had already flagged that delays to 3 cases during the year would result in resolutions in FY21, thereby impacting FY20 results. That said, excellent strategic progress through the year and good news flow as well as increasing scale suggests more value to come. Reiterate buy
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
Record’s Q221 trading update confirmed that its new $8bn dynamic hedging mandate has started and that, prior to this, assets under management equivalent (AUME) expanded by 4% in the quarter. The group continues to work on developing new products and is deploying technology to enhance its ability to deliver these and existing products cost effectively.
Companies: Record plc
Venture capital returns take time to emerge. Augmentum Fintech (“AF”) is a relatively new fund, yet we already see material embedded value with some well-established, highly profitable investments – such as interactive investor. Its dedicated focus on Fintech eliminates distraction. Appraising several key investments individually, and using balance sheet carrying value for others, we calculate longer term fair value at 1.6x FY20 NAV – likely nearer 2x, with value outside the scope of our appraisal.
Companies: Augmentum Fintech
L&G reported an operating profit from continuing divisions (excluding Mature Savings and General Insurance businesses) of £1,128m, -2.2% yoy. The COVID-19-related cost was £129m. LGR posted a growing operating profit to £721m. Net profit amounted to £290m vs. £874m a year before, being affected by the reduced discount rate used to calculate LGI reserves. The Solvency II ratio stood at 173%. The Board recommended an interim dividend of 4.93p/share, stable relative to H1 19.
Companies: Legal & General Group Plc
Deltic Energy is entering an exciting phase in its development based on its fully funded joint-venture projects with Shell. Preparations are now underway for an exploration well to test the Pensacola Zechstein prospect in the SNS (Southern North Sea). Deltic has indicated that it expects the current contingent well commitment to become firm on schedule by December 1, 2020. Drilling, according to Deltic, should follow in H2 2021. We see scope for positive news flow over the next few months, not least from the evaluation of Shell’s recently obtained processed 3-D seismic over Pensacola. Following Pensacola, the Selene prospect is scheduled to be drilled in mid-2022. The recent 32nd Round UKCS licence awards greatly expands Deltic’s exploration potential in the CNS and particularly the SNS Carboniferous fairway. Here some highly prospective acreage has been obtained.
Companies: Deltic Energy PLC