Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 12 February 2024

Media - The story so far

In this edition of our biannual sector review, we summarise the manner in which recent results, trading statements and M&A activity have influenced our forecasts and recommendations. Most updates have met expectations/ provided reassurance on full-year prospects; however, recent share price performance has been disappointing and in many cases, primarily influenced by macro factors. We see value across a range of stocks (our top five positive picks are WPP, ITV, UBM, ITE and Quarto Group*) and re

Strong H1

MONY’s interim results support our bullish view of its long-term attractions. These include its market-leading position, exposure to growth in switching activity, ability to deliver significant savings and strong cash generation. We have upgraded our current year adj. PBT forecast by 6% and raised our target price from to 264p to 357p. This benchmark places the group’s stock on the cusp of an Add recommendation despite a strong run. We remain Neutral for now, but suggest investors use any share

Tracsis - Interims: FY order book visibility and a doubled pipeline

Interims to January are in line with the February TU, and materially unchanged forecasts for the FY July 2024. After the well flagged expected 1H24 revenue movement of -7% (vs 1H23 which had been strengthened by c£2m perpetual licence sales in the US), prospects for the second half are supported by several new contracts that will generate revenue in 2H24, in addition to material contract delivery milestones from existing large projects such as major TRACS Enterprise, Railhub deployments, and Rem

Eleco - FY23 recurring revenue growth of +22%, EBITDA +2% ahead

Eleco’s FY23 results show robust organic recurring revenue growth of +17% with recurring revenue +22% to £20.7m, adj EBITDA +2% ahead of the January update, and a confident outlook with Q1 ARR already at £24.5m vs £22.6m at FY23. At this point, the excellent start to FY24 leads us to reiterate our FY24-26E revenue, adj EBITDA, EFCF, and DPS, and we include the April 2024 acquisition of Vertical Digital in our FY24-26E net cash, as we explain below. As Eleco builds upon the successful acquisition

An excellent win, momentum rebuilding

Made Tech has won a material expansion (worth up to £19.5m/2yrs) with a long-standing customer, The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (“DLUHC”). Coming off the back of a soft H1 bookings performance, we expect this win to materially boost investor sentiment and reassure how notwithstanding a tough backdrop (given an impending general election) MTEC continues to outcompete legacy providers and in-so-doing, grow its share of wallet with large/strategic customers. Landing near FY

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

LIBERUM: 1Spatial: Walk the talk and get SaaSy

Alphawave Semi - FY23 results, 1Q24 trading update

Following the updated guidance published last week, Alphawave reported a 74% YoY increase in revenue to US$321.7m for FY23 generating adjusted EBITDA of US$62.6m, up 34% YoY. As previewed, bookings in 1Q24 were strong at US$117.9m, up 20% YoY and ahead of guidance. The results release and conference call confirm that revised guidance mainly reflects a more conservative approach to revenue recognition under new CFO, Rahul Mathur, and an acceleration in the pace at which Alphawave is pivoting away

tinyBuild (TBLD LN) - Focused on H2 recovery

tinyBuild’s FY23 results confirmed a sharp drop in revenue and swing into adjusted EBITDA losses, as well as asset impairments and high cash burn. After already making $10m of annualised cost savings, the company continues to run-down its cash balance and now relies on a H2-weighted release schedule to reduce cash outflows.

LIBERUM: Cerillion: Continued strong trading in 1H

Morning Note – 23 April 2024

Pennant International - FY23 update and appointment

We view confirmation of market forecasts / PEN's February update as providing further validation for the company's strategy. Ongoing business streams (including the concluding stage of the Boeing / Apache contract) provide underpinning for forecasts for the current year and software-derived earnings as strategized look set to rise in FY24 with the launch of the company's GenS technology (well-regarded and long-established OmegaPS series update). Tuesday's statement from the Prime Minister ple

Synectics + (SNX, House Stock at 188p) - Positive AGM statement

To infinity…

Cerillion has announced a very solid update, as H1 sales and EBITDA are both up 10% y/y to £22.5m and £10.9m respectively, notwithstanding the exceptionally strong base period (sales and EBITDA +27% and +38% resp.). Results therefore point to continued strong customer demand, reflecting how Cerillion’s out-of-the-box product continues to resonate and gain adoption, particularly in a ‘budget conscious’ environment, by offering faster time to market, greater configurability and at a lower cost. Me

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Checkit - Signposting the path to profitability

In a tough trading environment, Checkit managed to grow FY24 revenue by 17% and reduce EBITDA losses by nearly half. The company has had a positive start to FY25 with new contract wins and the launch of a new module. Focus on growth from its existing customer base combined with strict cost control is helping Checkit to make steady progress towards its target of positive EBITDA and cash generation in FY27.

In-line H1, strategic initiatives advancing at pace

As reported in March, underlying EBITDA profitability improved to record levels despite FX headwinds. Further platform and proposition developments were completed, key steps on its digital roadmap, and it has already won 7 contracts YTD. Alongside planned growth in private membership, this will at least offset the loss of one contract. Forecasts are left unchanged today and, as member engagement throttles back up, FX headwinds ease, and proof points of digital efficiency emerge, markets should b