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Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on BONESUPPORT, Orexo, Transcontainer and UmweltBank. Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.
Companies: Orexo AB
Edison
On 17 March 2020 Orexo held a capital markets day at which it provided an update on its programs and estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on its business. In short, Orexo is predicting a limited impact from the virus, which is consistent with our estimates. It also highlighted its development pipeline, which will be a major focus of the company. It will be launching its next product, vorvida for problem drinking, in Q320 if the FDA signs off.
Orexo announced on 6 March 2020 that it has submitted an application to the FDA for its vorvida digital therapy for the treatment of heavy drinking. It expects a hearing from the FDA on the approval status of the program in Q220 and to commercialize the product in H220 if it is cleared. The product uses cognitive behavioral therapy coupled with machine learning and has been vetted in a randomized, controlled study to reduce problematic drinking episodes.
Orexo continues to weather the shift in its payer base away from exclusivity to the open market well. It has managed to maintain 4% sequential growth in Zubsolv sales from Q3 to Q419 (SEK190.5m), in the context of a 3% decline in units. Growth in the open market strongly resembles overall market trends (14% AGR for 2019). The company intends to use some of these Zubsolv revenues to advance its pipeline, which will have five products advancing in 2020.
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Orexo reported a record performance for Q319 with revenue of SEK231.2m (+6.7% year-on-year). The top line was lifted by a combination of factors including currency and a shift in the reimbursement landscape for Zubsolv in the US toward higher-margin business, translating into a record EBIT of SEK105.9m, over three times that of Q318, and SEK135.7m in operating cash flow. Orexo ended the period with SEK813m in cash (SEK524m net), which we expect the company will reinvest in new assets and its pip
Orexo has announced a partnership for the digital therapy of opioid use disorder (OUD) with GAIA, a global leader in digital therapeutics. The partnership will use GAIA’s expert system technology platform, broca, to develop a treatment management and support a product tailored to individual OUD patients.
After a strong Q119, which is seasonally the weakest quarter, Orexo also had a higher bar to beat Q218 due to milestone income making it one of its best ever quarters. Nevertheless, total Q219 revenues rose 0.8% to SEK201.2m. Zubsolv continued to perform well with Q219 sales of SEK184.4m, even against generic film and sublingual tablet competition.
Orexo’s Q119 results reinforced its continuing profitability with total revenues rising 25% y-o-y to SEK174.3m. Zubsolv led the revenue charge comprising 93% of total revenues and growing 23% y-o-y despite the seasonally weak first quarter of the opioid use dependency market. The effect on US Zubsolv (which increased in price by 4% from January 2019) from four Suboxone film generic entrants is so far minor.
Orexo’s FY18 results demonstrated continuing profitability derived from its lead product, Zubsolv, responsible for 21.7% y-o-y net sales growth driven by US Zubsolv Q418 prescription and revenue growth of 22% and 31.8%, respectively. The weakness in partnered products compared to our targets (although FY18 partnered sales were SEK125.4m) and higher Q4 investment (including litigation) reduced FY18 EPS compared to our estimate by SEK1.8. We have tempered our revenue growth expectations for FY19 u
Orexo’s capital markets day (CMD) emphasised the scale of the US opioid crisis. We have forecast 8.2% market growth pa for US opioid dependency in FY19 and FY20, although external speakers at the CMD suggested this may be higher. Orexo’s marketed product Zubsolv, sales of which grew 37% y-o-y in Q318 in SEK, and its other products in development, form a treatment franchise in the growing markets of opioid dependency and related disorders. The recent return of EU Zubsolv rights defers the royalti
The growing US Zubsolv franchise continues to drive Orexo’s quarterly performance. Total Q3 revenue growth of c 30% puts Orexo in an attractive position with potential business development partners. Orexo’s Q318 results were the first since Zubsolv’s exclusivity was strengthened for another 13 years in the US, so with Zubsolv sales growing by 1.2% q-o-q in Q3, against the backdrop of a 0.3% decline in the buprenorphine/naloxone market volumes, and continued material CoGS improvements, Orexo is m
Orexo’s appeal of the US District Court’s invalidation of the ‘330 patent, which had been anticipated for some months, has been successful. Zubsolv is Orexo’s largest and fastest-growing product – we anticipate sales of c SEK620m and over 25% growth in FY18. The initial invalidity of the ‘330 patent had weighed on the shares since 2014 and this overhang has now been removed. The exclusivity of the Zubsolv patents runs until 2019 and 2032. We have updated our valuation ahead of the Q318 results.
In a well-received set of quarterly results, Orexo continued to execute on Zubsolv in the US, which, for the second quarter running, continued to be the only branded product in the category that increased its market share in the face of multiple generics. Zubsolv US revenues of SEK158.4m grew by 27.6% y-o-y, driving total revenues to SEK200m. EBITDA of SEK50.6m, cash flow from operations of SEK39m and a gross cash balance of SEK494.8m made Q218 one of Orexo’s best ever quarters.
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Companies: Warpaint London PLC
Shore Capital
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web
Companies: Shield Therapeutics Plc
Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (CNS) has provided a trading update for the 12 months to 31 March 2024, noting that a combination of strong sales growth and significant margin improvements, driven by operational efficiencies, have played key factors in the group’s expectation of being adjusted EBITDA positive in FY 2024. Revenues are expected to be £9.8m (30% YoY growth), ahead of our £9.0m forecast, with gross profits expected to exceed £6m, which is again ahead of our year-end forecast of £5.6m
Companies: Cambridge Nutritional Sciences PLC
Cavendish
An official NHS Supply Chain case study has quantified the savings made by an NHS Trust from adopting Creo Medical’s Speedboat device to perform Speedboat Submucosal Dissection (SSD) in comparison to surgical alternatives. In total, the net cash saving from 130 SSD procedures for the NHS Trust was calculated at £687k, including savings from reduced length of hospital stay and reduced theatre costs. Notably, these savings did not include the patient and financial benefits associated with reduced
Companies: Creo Medical Group Plc
Futura Medical’s investment case has shifted firmly onto commercial execution. The highly successful initial launches of Eroxon, its novel topical gel for ED (erectile dysfunction), by partner Cooper Consumer Health in the UK and Belgium are now being followed by roll-outs across the major European markets. The much-anticipated launch in the commercially important US market by consumer healthcare giant Haleon is expected before February 2025. Launches in Other Regions are anticipated throughout
Companies: Futura Medical plc
Trinity Delta
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
Companies: Destiny Pharma Plc
Creo Medical has presented real-world evidence of the economic utility of its minimally invasive electrosurgical devices, based on NHS data from 130 submucosal dissection procedures using Creo’s flagship Speedboat Inject device. The data demonstrated net cash savings of £687k for the NHS trust, driven by a significant reduction in both hospitalisation and critical care costs. We believe this provides external validation to Creo’s pursuit of improving patients’ outcomes through its novel suite of
24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: FTC AGL SRT SOU G4M AOM SUP
Hybridan
22nd April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: ARV CTL AFRN FEN HUW TENG BBSN EAAS VAL
Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (CNS) has published its H1 2024 results to end September 2023. Group revenues grew 44% to £4.9m and gross profits increased by 63% to £3.1m, with the company benefitting from newfound operational efficiencies. With its now streamlined strategy focussing on the core Health & Nutrition business and the initial signs of an encouraging uptick in sales momentum, we believe the company is well positioned for growth that will help create future value for shareholders. We
Companies: e-Therapeutics plc
Venture Life has reported FY23 results to December 2023, following the February trading update. Revenues grew 17% in the year to £51.4m (our est. £50.7m) and adjusted EBITDA was £11.6m (our est. £11.6m). Cash conversion was 85%, generating £9.8m of cash from operations. Cash generation and no M&A in 2023 allowed the company to de-lever, closing FY23 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.3x. Management have focused on growth with three therapy areas generating double-digit revenue growth and onli
Companies: Venture Life Group Plc
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