Shield Therapeutics’ (STX’s) shares fell sharply in December 2020 on the announcement that a US partnering deal would not be completed in 2020 and that the company is considering launching Accrufer itself in the US. We believe the market reaction has been overdone and the current share price fully discounts any value from the US and China opportunities. Until STX provides further clarity, we have continued to evaluate it based on a US partnering deal. Our modelling suggests an STX-led US launch could more than double longer-term shareholder value, but this is accompanied by increased near-term financial and investment risk, as STX will need to raise funds to establish a small but focused US marketing organisation. We value STX at £298.5m.