THE MONTHLY November 2019
The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.
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04 Nov 19
More choice for clinicians and patients
Shield Therapeutics (STX) is a commercial-stage company delivering specialty products that address unmet medical needs, with an initial focus on treating iron deficiency (ID) with Feraccru®/Accrufer®. FDA approval of Accrufer with a broad label in the US opens up a market currently worth over $1bn in intravenous (IV) iron alone. Commercialisation of Feraccru is well under way in Europe, where it was approved in 2016; in the US, it is dependent on an upcoming licensing deal. Additional data released from the AEGIS head-to-head (H2H) study demonstrate favourable patient outcomes from Feraccru vs. IV iron treatment.
30 Oct 19
Phase IIIb H2H data presented at conference
The publication of the Phase III AEGIS-H2H data at the United European Gastroenterology Week, comparing Feraccru/Acccrufer with the leading intravenous (IV) iron (Ferinject), confirmed non-inferiority and showed that Feraccru prevented the recurrence of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) over 52 weeks, whereas 39% of those on Ferinject required at least one additional intervention. The release of these data now allow Norgine to promote these additional benefits in marketed territories as well as supporting the pricing and reimbursement applications for Feraccru in France, Italy and Spain, where launches are expected in 2020/2021. Shield remains on track to complete licensing discussions for Feraccru in the US and China by year-end, the value of which is still to be reflected in the share price. We reiterate our target price of 350p, which excludes potential upfront and commercial milestones.
23 Oct 19
THE MONTHLY October 2019
Since their privatisation in 1989, the 10 water companies have faced a periodic review every five years; it is undertaken by Ofwat, and prescribes customer prices, along with the investment requirements. As part of the ongoing review, PR19, Ofwat will publish its Final Determination numbers on 11 December 2019; they will apply as from April 2020, although water companies do have the option to seek a reference to the CMA.
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03 Oct 19
THE MONTHLY September 2019
The challenges associated with value creation drive all investors. Any investment professional is eager to make their mark by picking organisations that are able to deliver superior returns. Increasingly investors look into how organisations are governed and how effective the top decision-making bodies of organisations really are. In this white paper, we shed light on research findings and reveal the seven hallmarks of effective boards. The seven hallmarks are proven to create more effective boards and are set to be the next lever in the value creation process. Better Boards has created advanced board evaluation tools designed to motivate and inspire and above all, contribute to superior value creation.
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03 Sep 19
FDA approval ushers in a new era for Shield
STX is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company delivering specialty products that address patients’ unmet medical needs, with an initial focus on treating iron deficiency (ID) with Feraccru®/Accrufer®. FDA approval of Accrufer with a broad label in the US opens up a current market worth over $1bn in intravenous (IV) iron alone. This event will transition the company from the early growth stage illustrated by its 2019 interim results into a global company by 2020. STX is in ongoing discussions with a number of potential partners for US commercialisation – a deal that represents the next major valuation inflection point.
02 Sep 19
Shield Therapeutics - The land of opportunity awaits Accrufer
Shield Therapeutics’ interim results highlight a momentous year to date, with the FDA approval of primary asset Feraccru/Accrufer, for the treatment of iron deficiency (ID) in adults with any underlying cause. Royalties received from early sales of the product in the UK and Germany by partner Norgine are encouraging. The AEGIS-H2H study reported positive data, strengthening the product’s profile and leading to a €2.5m development milestone from Norgine. We expect a further ramp up in sales in 2020/2021 as pricing and reimbursement conclude in some European countries, leading to ongoing rollouts. A key inflection point is a US partnering deal, which management guides could be concluded by end-2019; an upfront licensing payment would extend Shield’s cash reach beyond our forecast of H220. We value Shield at £273m.
08 Aug 19
Interim results – looking to the US and full H2H data
Shield reported interim results to 30 June 2019, which showed convincing early signs of success from Norgine’s promotional activity of Feraccru in England and Germany, with in-market pack volumes 60% higher in Q2 compared with Q4 2018. Revenues increased 428% to £2.6m, with royalties of c.£0.3m boosted by £2.3m of milestone payments. This resulted in an adjusted net loss of £0.7m (vs £6.7m). Net cash at 30 June was £6.5m, providing a cash runway to Q3 2020, which excludes potential significant up-front payments and milestones for US and China rights, for which licensing deals are expected by year-end. With full data release of key AEGIS-H2H data also due in late October, we expect the shares to appreciate significantly over the remainder of the year. We make minor changes to forecasts, reflecting Feraccru’s stronger performance in Europe, and reiterate our price target of 350p.
07 Aug 19
Morning Note – 7 August 2019
Elecosoft (ELCO): Corp First half meets expectation | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): Corp Frontier Exploration Licence award | Evgen Pharma (EVG): Corp Patent update – European grant |Kazera Global (KZG): Corp Update for NTI tantalite mine | Shield Therapeutics (STX): Corp Interim results – looking to the US and full H2H data
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07 Aug 19
FDA approval opens door to major US opportunity
Shield Therapeutics (STX) is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company delivering specialty products that address patients’ unmet medical needs, with an initial focus on treating iron deficiency (ID) with Feraccru®/Accufer®. News that the FDA has approved this drug for a broad indication opens it up to a commercial market worth over $1bn. STX has been in discussions with a number of potential partners, but its hand has been strengthened by the regulatory de-risking of Accufer. Its USP will be that oral Accufer is as effective as intravenous iron. The market capitalisation equates to only 4.4x in-market sales.
05 Aug 19
THE MONTHLY August 2019
The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.
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01 Aug 19
Shield Therapeutics PLC: FDA approves broad label for Feraccru
Shield Therapeutics (LON:STX) reports it has achieved the best possible outcome for Feraccru. The US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the treatment for a broad label to treat iron deficiency (ID) in adults, addressing a population many times wider than the iron deficiency anaemia (
29 Jul 19
FDA approval and with a broad label
Shield Therapeutics received notification from the FDA that it has granted approval for Feraccru, or Accrufer as the product will be marketed in the US market. The FDA granted a broader than expected label, given Feraccru’s tolerability profile and efficacy – the treatment of Iron Deficiency (ID) with or without anaemia – with the label indicating its use for as long as necessary to restore iron levels, implying a chronic therapy. This at least doubles the potential addressable market for Accrufer. Together with the non-inferiority data vs. IV iron, announced in March, this offers the potential for Accrufer to remove the need for patients to progress to IV therapy. We increase our target price to 350p, which excludes the potential milestone payments that are expected when the company announces a commercial partner in the US.
26 Jul 19
Small Cap Feast
Interswitch, a Nigeria-based payments firm, has hired advisers to resurrect plans for a stock-market listing in London and Lagos later this year, which may value the financial technology company at $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Roxi Music UK music streaming service plans London IPO as it goes up against Spotify. They have appointed investment bank Arden Partners for an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange later this year.
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26 Jul 19
Shield Therapeutics - FDA approval attained, sales execution now key
Shield Therapeutics’ primary asset, Feraccru, has been approved by the FDA for the treatment of iron deficiency in patients with any underlying cause – the broadest possible label. It will be marketed in the US as Accrufer. This is upside to our previous assumptions and increases our peak sales potential to c$420m (vs c $250m previously). Successfully commercialising Feraccru/Accrufer through partners is now key to Shield realising its value. We expect Shield to out-license the US rights during the next 18 months. An upfront licensing payment would extend Shield’s cash reach beyond our current forecast of H220. We now value Shield at £273m.
26 Jul 19
Shield Therapeutics - Executive interview
Shield Therapeutics is a UK-based, speciality pharmaceutical company with a primary focus on commercialising its drug Feraccru, which is approved in Europe for the treatment of iron deficiency, with or without anaemia. In this video, healthcare analyst Dr Sean Conroy provides an overview of Shield Therapeutics and outlines the company's strategy for the commercialisation of Feraccru. He finishes the video by detailing Edison’s approach to valuing the company. See latest research note here.
09 Jul 19
THE MONTHLY July 2019
When advisers first start looking at business relief (BR) products, there is much to take in: the rules governing such products; the investment strategies being used; and what the investment risk is. It is easy to lose sight of the fact that, for non-AIM products, the investment is being made directly into a company or partnership, rather than a fund. It is, therefore, essential that governance is part of the diligence process.
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02 Jul 19
Europe underpins current valuation; await US approval
Shield Therapeutics is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company whose lead compound, Feraccru, is marketed in some European markets for the treatment of iron deficiency, with or without anaemia. In a global market estimated to be worth c.£2.5bn, the recent head-to-head Phase IIIb trial, which showed Feraccru to be equivalent to the leading intravenous iron, positions Feraccru very favourably. The approval in the US, expected on 27 July, will be a key inflection point, the risk-adjusted value of which is not reflected in the current price at all. The NPV of Feraccru in Europe is c.81p, where it is currently marketed. The risk-adjusted NPV in the US is 229p. We initiate with a target price of 200p although FDA approval and subsequent licensing would see this rise to at least 250p.
14 May 19
Morning Note – 14 May 2019
Hardide (HDD): Corp Interim results | Ideagen (IDEA): Corp Strong and consistent – full-year trading update | Shield Therapeutics (STX): Corp Europe underpins current valuation; await US approval | Tekcapital (TEK): Corp Launch of new eyewear line
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14 May 19
All in the execution
Shield Therapeutics (AIM: STX) is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company delivering specialty products that address patients’ unmet medical needs, with an initial focus on treating iron deficiency with Feraccru®. Following IPO and EU approval of Feraccru, both in February 2016, STX has made good progress with its clinical and commercial strategy, most recently demonstrating in a phase 3 trial that oral Feraccru is as effective as intravenous iron. Management has secured commercialisation agreements and is now awaiting an FDA decision in 3Q’19. The remaining risks lie in US approval and in successful execution of commercialisation.
13 May 19
Shield Therapeutics PLC Heading for a US approval decision
Shield Therapeutics (LON:STX) is making excellent progress having reported two sets of new supportive clinical data on its lead product Feraccru, a low dose oral iron capsule. Feraccru is being positioned as an alternative therapy for patients with iron deficiency (ID) and iron deficiency anaemia (
09 May 19
Small Cap Feast
Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m. Loungers plc—the operator of 146 café/bar/restaurants across England and Wales under the Lounge and Cosy Club brands, announces its intention to seek admission on AIM, offer to raise £61.6m at 200p with market cap of £185m, expected 29 April 2019. SDX Energy plc—a North Africa focused oil and gas company, announces its intention to complete a Canadian plan of arrangement under section 192 of the Canada Business Corporations Act and will have shares de-listed from the TSX-V and admitted to trading on AIM. Expected 28 May 2019, anticipated market cap of £76m Renold plc—a leading international supplier of industrial chains and related power transmission products, announced that it will cancel the listing of the Company from the premium segment and apply for admission on AIM. Expected 06 June 2019. Distribution Finance Capital Holdings plc — specialist lender which builds relationships with manufacturers and then provides working capital solutions up and down their supply chains to drive their growth is looking to join AIM. No raise, secondary offering of £19.8m at 90p, expected market cap of £95.98m. Expected 09 May 2019.
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24 Apr 19
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics - No surprises in FY18 update
Shield released its FY2018 results this morning but having pre-released the key financial metrics earlier this year there are no surprises. The company did however make note of its expectation of signing an outlicensing deal in China this year as well as reiterating its belief in the strength of its IP against the on-going challenge from Teva.
03 Apr 19
Shield Therapeutics - Next step US Feraccru approval
Shield Therapeutics reported FY18 results in line with our expectations. Total revenue of £11.9m included the £11.0m upfront payment from European partner Norgine. Operating expenses were substantially reduced as Shield moved from a direct selling model to out-licensing deals for Feraccru commercialisation. Norgine will roll out Feraccru across additional European countries in 2020, subject to country-by-country reimbursement negotiations. In the US, we expect Feraccru approval in 2019 and that Shield will seek a marketing partner thereafter. The positive AEGIS-H2H data (non-inferiority to IV iron) announced recently should strengthen Feraccru’s appeal. We value Shield at £177m (from £178m).
03 Apr 19
The Monthly April 2019
Although the focus of Hardman & Co is predominantly on companies in the smallto mid-sized market capitalisation range, when writing research reports, it is important to position them relative to the industry in which they operate. Apart from Japanese companies, all the major global pharmaceutical companies have reported full-year results for 2018 over the past few weeks; therefore, we have taken the opportunity to update our industry database and generate the first cut of global rankings for 2018. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle – it still takes, on average, 10 years from discovery to launch of a new drug – decisions made many years ago have important consequences on current financial results. Therefore, looking back at operational performance over 20 years reveals how different company strategies have panned out.
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03 Apr 19
THE MONTHLY March 2019
In the investment world, before MiFID II, essentially every institution talked to every broker, and the whole, professional market could see every research note and the forecasts in detail. This was the ‘Age of Consensus’. Everyone had the same information (well, everyone except retail investors), and this transparency helped share price formation and liquidity
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10 Mar 19
Shield Therapeutics PLC: Hitting its clinical targets
Shield Therapeutics (LON:STX) has reported further data from its non-inferiority AEGIS H2H study of oral ferric maltol (branded as Feraccru in Europe and Accrufer in US) versus intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (IV FCM), which is the standard second-line treatment for iron deficiency anaemia (IDA).
06 Mar 19
The Monthly March 2019
In the investment world, before MiFID II, essentially every institution talked to every broker, and the whole, professional market could see every research note and the forecasts in detail. This was the ‘Age of Consensus’. Everyone had the same information (well, everyone except retail investors), and this transparency helped share price formation and liquidity.
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05 Mar 19
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Successful H2H study drives milestone payment and improves EU outlook
Shield announced positive results from its P3b AEGIS-H2H study demonstrating that Feraccru was non-inferior to market leading intravenous (IV) iron therapy in treating iron deficiency anaemia. This successful study has triggered a €2.5m milestone payment from Norgine and will allow it to begin reimbursement discussions across the rest of the EU thus de-risking the commercial launch that we believe is worth at least £0.56 per share and as much as £0.90 per share.
04 Mar 19
Shield Therapeutics - Feraccru performs again in a Phase III study
Shield Therapeutics has announced positive top-line data from a Phase IIIb study (AEGIS-H2H) for Feraccru, a CHMP-approved oral formulation of iron positioned for the treatment of iron deficiency (ID) with or without anaemia. The data demonstrate that Feraccru is non-inferior to the market-leading IV iron (Ferinject) and has triggered a €2.5m payment from its marketing partner Norgine. Additional near-term revenue (royalties and milestones) can be expected as Norgine continues the rollout of Feraccru across Europe in 2020. In the US, we expect Feraccru approval in 2019 and that Shield will seek a marketing partner thereafter. We maintain our valuation of Shield at £178m or 153p/share.
04 Mar 19
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Value underpin, optionality and catalysts
The Shield investment thesis is simple in our view – the Norgine deal in Europe more than underpins the current valuation while the potential for US approval provides optionality worth >50% upside on a risk adjusted view.
19 Feb 19
Shield Therapeutics - Fortified for growth
Shield Therapeutics is focused on the development and commercialisation of Feraccru, a CHMP-approved oral formulation of iron positioned for the treatment of iron deficiency (ID) with or without anaemia. In 2018, out-licensing Feraccru to Norgine re-established an active salesforce in core EU5 territories and provided Shield with a cash injection of £11m. Additional near-term revenue (royalties and milestones) is expected as Norgine continues rollout of Feraccru across Europe in 2020. In the US, we expect Feraccru approval in 2019. We value Shield at £178m or 153p/share.
19 Feb 19
THE MONTHLY February 2019
This Investment Research Paper addresses the issue of renewable power generation in the UK and in mainland Europe, which – after the deep-seated financial crisis of 2008/09 and the ensuing recession – now has better prospects of achieving critical mass. It also considers investment perspectives.
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05 Feb 19
Shield Therapeutics (STX) is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company delivering specialty products that address patients’ unmet medical needs in renal and gastrointestinal disorders. Its initial focus is Feraccru® a supplement for iron deficiency. Following IPO and EU approval of Feraccru, both in February 2016, STX has made good progress with its de-risked commercial strategy. Management has secured agreements with three partners with expertise in rare diseases and European market access to accelerate Feraccru’s commercialisation. STX is now awaiting a game-changing FDA decision in 3Q’19 that could unlock the US market.
28 Jan 19
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Update highlights Norgine commitment, cash runway and catalysts for 2019
Shield has released a short preliminary update for its FY18 results. In this it confirmed that it delivered revenues of £11.9m of which £0.6m came from product sales in the first 8 months of the year and a further £0.1m from royalties over the remaining 4 months of 2018. It also provided an update on Norgine's roll-out across Europe with c.80reps in-place already (4x the number Shield had).
24 Jan 19
Small Cap Feast
Circassia Pharma (CIR.L) - specialty pharmaceutical company focused on respiratory disease transferring from the Main Market. No funds being raised. Due 4 Feb. Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected late January 2019. Chaarat Gold Holdings—RTO, the Company intends to acquire Kapan Mining and Processing CJSC, which owns the Shahumyan medium-sized polymetallic mine in Kapan in the Republic of Armenia. No raise, market cap of £110.1m, due early Feb
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22 Jan 19
Shield Therapeutics: Feraccru - a potential game changer in the treatment of iron deficiency anaemia
Feraccru is a unique, non-salt, formulation oral iron: strong efficacy with “placebo-like” tolerability Potential to change iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) therapeutic algorithm Feraccru to become the preferred option for patients not adequately controlled or who are intolerant to generic oral iron sup
18 Jan 19
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - FDA accepts Feraccru filing, approval decision likely in 2019
Shield announced this morning that the FDA has accepted its new drug application for Feraccru allowing for potential approval in the US next year. The US opportunity is likely to be at least as large as Europe and we have previously valued this at £90m in NPV terms assuming a 65% chance of approval.
03 Dec 18
Small Cap Feast
PetroTal (TAL.TO) - The exploration and production company focused on oil assets in Peru is seeking a secondary AIM quoting before the end of 2018. Path Investments— First acquisition of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Seeking £10m raise. Due early Oct Green Man Gaming—pure play e-commerce and technology company in the digital video games industry. revenue CAGR growth of 26.7% in the last three years to £47.5m. Due Mid October 2018. EBITDA Profitable. Offer TBA Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over the next few months.
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01 Oct 18
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Norgine deal transforms the outlook
Yesterday’s deal with Norgine does several critical things to transform the outlook for Shield. Firstly, the upfront payment ensures that Shield has enough capital for at least 12 months including filing and potential approval of Feraccru in the US (for which Shield retains the economics).
20 Sep 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Green Man Gaming—pure play e-commerce and technology company in the digital video games industry. revenue CAGR growth of 26.7% in the last three years to £47.5m. Due 28 Sep. EBITDA Profitable. Offer TBA Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is exploring its options in relation to a potential move to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange which, if it were to proceed, would likely take place over the next few months. Path Investments (PATH) -RTO of a 50 per cent. participating interest in the producing Alfeld-Elze II gas field located 22 kilometres south of Hannover in Germany. Seeking £10m. Offer TBA. Due Mid September Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
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13 Sep 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Cake Box Holdings—franchise retailer of cakes with a growing store base across the UK looking to join AIM, Offer tbc, expected late June Mind Gym. Behavioural science business that uses scalable proprietary products to deliver human capital and business improvement solutions to large corporations. Offer TBA. Due 28 June Anexo -specialist integrated credit hire and legal services group. Offer TBA. Due 19 June. i-nexus—develops and provides strategy execution software to assist global enterprises in effective execution of their strategic plans and initiatives looking to jon AIM. Offer TBC, expected 19 June Yellow Cake will use its expertise to generate value through the ownership of physical U3O8 (Uranium) together with a range of activities and opportunities connected with owning physical U3O8. Acquiring supply contract for up to $170m. Offer TBA. Tekmar— technology provider of protection systems for subsea cable, umbilical and flexible pipes and offshore engineering services—Offshore wind farms and Oil & Gas. Revenue of £21.9m and Adjusted EBITDA of £4.9m Offer TBA Knights Group— UK regional legal and professional services businesses. FYApr18 rev £34.9 million and adjusted operating profit was £6.8 million excluding Turner Parkinson (acquiring on IPO). Offer TBA TransGlobe Energy Corporation—an independent international upstream oil and gas company with headquarters in Calgary, Canada is looking to join AIM. No Capital to be raised, market cap of £131m. Expected 29 June Strongbow Exploration (TSX:SBW) intends to dual list on AIM. Holds rights to the South Crofty underground tin mine, a former producing tin mine located in the towns of Pool and Camborne, Cornwall . The project is estimated to require the Company to raise £25 million over the next 18 months to progress to a production decision. Offer TBS. Due June.
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14 Jun 18
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - FY17 results: numbers a sideshow, update on European partnering
Shield has announced its FY17 results this morning with the headline numbers already known from the February trading update. Following last week's positive update on the planned FDA filing of Feraccru, the key for Shield remains capturing the very significant potential value from the asset in both the US and Europe.
11 Apr 18
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Positive outcome from FDA meeting; US Feraccru filing now planned 'as soon as possible' this year
Following the new and positive analysis of Feraccru's Phase 3 data in CKD-IDA announced in March, the company met with FDA to discuss filing. The company has now received final minutes of that meeting and has decided to proceed to filing Feraccru for approval in the US.
06 Apr 18
Small Cap Brunch
Kore Potash— advanced stage mineral exploration and development company whose primary asset is its interest in the Sintoukola Project, a potash project located in the Republic of Congo. ) Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource of 5,953Mt at an average grade of 22.0% KCl. Offer raising $13.14m with market cap of £56.4m. Due 29 March. Perfomatrix PLC, a global end to end Performance Marketing technology and services company headquartered in the UK, is looking to join AIM in early April 2018, offer TBC Crusader Resources, an ASX-listed public company incorporated in Australia, which is primarily focused on the exploration and development of gold assets in Brazil. Offer TBC, expected late March. SimplyBiz, a Financial Services Firm, looking to join AIM raising £30m via placing and £34.6m via a sale of existing ordinary shares at 170p giving a market cap of £130m. Expected 4 April Polarean - Medical drug-device combination company operating in the high resolution medical imaging market. Offer raising £3m at 15p with market cap of £11.01m. Due 29 March
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27 Mar 18
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Feraccru demonstrates efficacy in new analysis; Confounding events impacted failed top-line data
As promised in February following the negative top-line data from Shield's pivotal CKD study, the company has today provided an update following further analysis of the data. As we suspected could be the case given prior positive outcomes with Feraccru and positive competitor studies, this analysis appears to show Feraccru works in the CKD-IDA indication but that the top-line data was impacted by a number of confounding events.
16 Mar 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Kore Potash— advanced stage mineral exploration and development company whose primary asset is its interest in the Sintoukola Project, a potash project located in the Republic of Congo. ) Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource of 5,953Mt at an average grade of 22.0% KCl. Offer TBA. Due end March. Perfomatrix PLC, a global end to end Performance Marketing technology and services company headquartered in the UK, is looking to join AIM in early April 2018, offer TBC Crusader Resources, an ASX-listed public company incorporated in Australia, which is primarily focused on the exploration and development of gold assets in Brazil. Offer TBC, expected late March. SimplyBiz, a Financial Services Firm, looking to join AIM raising £30m via placing and £34.6m via a sale of existing ordinary shares at 170p giving a market cap of £130m. Expected 4 April Bacanora Lithium—Readmission. No new money. Mkt cap £140m. Due 21 March. the new holding company for Bacanora Minerals Ltd Core Industrial REIT—established to invest in Irish-based industrial properties, predominantly located in the Greater Dublin Area. Vendor placing and new funds to a total of €225m, Target gross proceeds €207m. Expected Mid March Polarean - Medical drug-device combination company operating in the high resolution medical imaging market. Offer TBC. Due 26 March
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16 Mar 18
LIBERUM: Shield - Cash runway extended to 'at least' end of Q4 2018
Shield has put out a business update following the recent topline failure of its Phase 3 study of Feraccru in IDA in CKD. It looks like sensible actions are being taken to (i) preserve cash runway, now 'at least' end Q4 2018 vs prior end Q2 (ii) analyse in detail the CKD data to look for confounding factors that might have impacted the study, due by end March (iii) report the H2H study results this year, thus within the cash runway (iv) explore how a US filing might still be possible as well as the European label expansion on which the company expects to hear during H1 and (v) given all the above and an ongoing board-led strategic review, delay FY results until April.
22 Feb 18
Small Cap Breakfast
implyBiz, a Financial Services Firm, reported to be considering an IPO targeting a market capitalisation of between £140m and £155m in a listing that would raise £30m of new money. Bacanora Lithium—Readmission. No new money. Mkt cap £140m. Due 21 March. the new holding company for Bacanora Minerals Ltd Stirling Industries—Acquisition vehicle focusing on industrials. Offer TBA. Due 5 March. GRC International Group— holding company for a group of companies providing a range of products and services to address the IT governance, risk management and compliance requirements of organisations. Offer TBC, expected 5 Mar 2018 Core Industrial REIT—established to invest in Irish-based industrial properties, predominantly located in the Greater Dublin Area. Vendor placing and new funds to a total of €225m, Target gross proceeds €207m. Expected 21 Feb Polarean - Medical drug-device combination company operating in the high resolution medical imaging market. Offer TBC. Due Early March Block Energy—a NEX Listed UK based oil exploration and production company whose main country of operation is the Republic of Georgia, looks to join AIM end of February 2018. Offer TBC
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22 Feb 18
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Major negative surprise as Phase 3 kidney study fails
Shield has reported top-line results from its Phase 3 study of Feraccru in chronic kidney disease. The study has failed to meet its primary endpoint. Shield has reported top-line results from its Phase 3 study of Feraccru in chronic kidney disease. The study has failed to meet its primary endpoint.
05 Feb 18
Small Cap Breakfast
Block Energy—a NEX Listed UK based oil exploration and production company whose main country of operation is the Republic of Georgia, looks to join AIM end of February 2018. Offer TBC OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Offer raising £30m at 165p with mkt cap of £100m . Due 9 Feb.
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05 Feb 18
The AIM Healthcare index has shown positive returns in all but three out of the past 11 years (2007, 2008 and 2011), growing at a CAGR of 7.6% over the period. This compares with a CAGR of -0.3% for the broader FT AIM All Share, +0.6% for the AIM 100 and +3.5% for its more senior FT All Share Health index. Sector growth and relative performance to the AIM All Share index has accelerated over the past five years; the sector having risen 19.19% CAGR since 1 Jan 2012. This compares with 6.8% growth in the AIM All Share and 6.1% in the FT All Share. This outperformance can be attributed to the increasing success amongst the Healthcare constituents which have progressed their business plans to a point where substantial value has been/is being created and where many companies have successfully scaled their businesses to sustain future growth. We highlight four companies that have different business models but exemplify the opportunities that are increasingly becoming evident within the sector.
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21 Nov 17
Interims – EU headwinds quickly dealt with
Shield Therapeutics (STX) has released H117 interims that show in-market Feraccru sales of £0.2m (flat YoY) with an adj. net loss of £8.4m (+65% from H1-16). Sales & marketing costs have been increased in response to management identifying commercialisation headwinds. Net cash of £21.5m takes STX through to AEGIS-CKD readout in Q118, after which management will have clearer visibility on marketing cash outflows going forward. We revise FY17/18 sales forecasts down by 37% and 4% respectively, highlighting the strong investment outlook that remains given the significant opportunity within US-CKD. We reduce our target price by 2% to 265p and maintain our Buy recommendation post interims.
22 Sep 17
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - No material changes to our in-market sales expectations, US P3 now due early 2018, IDA label filed early
Shield has reported its H1 2017 results this morning. There are no material changes to our FY17 in-market sales expectations (although growth slower than required to hit prior company guidance).
20 Sep 17
Small Cap Breakfast
Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. Intention to float. Offer TBA “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” | Warehouse REIT - The Company will invest in a diversified portfolio of UK warehouse assets located in urban areas. The Company is targeting a dividend yield of 5.5p equivalent to a yield of 5.5 percent. for the year ending 31 March 2019. Issue price 100p. Offer TBA. Due 20 Sep | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c. £50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. | People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance. | Charter Court Financial Services Group—Intention to float. Specialist lender serving the UK residential mortgage market. The net mortgage loan book stood at £4.4 billion as at 30 June 2017 growing at a compound annual growth rate of 92 percent since 31 December 2014. Part vendor sale and £20m primary raise. | ContourGlobal LP—Report on Bloomberg that the thermal energy power generator is considering a London listing. | Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment Company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Offer raising £200m at 100p. The Company has decided to extend the closing date for the Placing, Offer for Subscription and Intermediaries Offer to 1 August 2017. The Company may bring forward this closing date at any time. Admission 15 September 2017
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14 Sep 17
Blancco Technology (BLTG): Cash or growth – choose one (SELL) | Abzena (ABZA): Trading update (U/R) | Nautilus Marine Services* (NAUT): 2017 interim results (CORP) | Shield Therapeutics (STX): Interim CFO appointed (BUY) | Hurricane Energy (HUR): Operational update (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): New contract win – Finland (CORP) | Alliance Pharma (APH): Interims highlight strong free cashflow (BUY)
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14 Sep 17
Iron tired of being tired all the time
Shield Therapeutics (STX) is a speciality pharmaceutical company with an approved product, Feraccru, for the treatment of iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) caused by inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Feraccru has already been launched in the UK and Germany. Upcoming readout of a pivotal Phase III trial in chronic kidney disease (CKD) could allow sales into the US whilst a Head to Head study (H2H) would strengthen the EU reimbursement case in 2018. Feraccru offers clear clinical benefits to a poorly served population of IDA patients intolerant of oral iron tablets, referred to as oral ferrous products (OFPs). Fast adoption and strong global growth potential is high. We estimate Feraccru to be capable of taking 10% US market share within five years of FDA approval (finnCap est. 70%). With CKD-US Phase III results in Q4 2017, we initiate with a Buy recommendation and 270p price target.
07 Sep 17
Carclo (CAR): AGM statement in line, but greater H2 weighting (HOLD) | Shield Therapeutics (STX): Iron tired of being tired all the time (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Building market presence (BUY) | Chariot Oil & Gas* (CHAR): Rig assigned for Rabat Deep drilling (CORP) | Frontier Developments* (FDEV): A stellar year, and it’s just the beginning (CORP) | Atalaya Mining (ATYM): Interim results (BUY) | SCISYS* (SSY): FY 2017 in line with guidance so far (CORP)
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07 Sep 17
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - US composition patent granted to 2035; further support for long duration of cashflows
Shield has announced this morning the grant in the US of a patent covering lead product Feraccru's composition until late 2035 (versus previous protection to 2028). This is clearly good news as it will increase confidence in the long duration of Shield's cashflows from Feraccru in its largest potential market.
06 Sep 17
Small Cap Breakfast
Altus Strategies—African focused natural resource Company. Offer TBC. Expected Mid July. Harvey Nash Group— Provider of professional recruitment and offshore solutions moving to AIM from Main. No capital to be raised. Mkt Cap c. £57.8m. AnimalCare—RTO of Ecuphar NV, a European animal health company. £30m raise. Ecuphar FY16 rev £68.4m, underlying EBITDA £8.9m. Due 13 July. Angling Direct -Schedule 1 from the specialist fishing tackle retailer in the UK . Raising £9m of which £7.4m new money. Mkt cap c. £27.4m. Due 13 July NEXUS Infrastructure—Offer TBA. Provider of essential infrastructure services to the UK housebuilding and commercial sectors. Expected 11 July. FYSep16 rev £135.7m. Greencoat Renewables - Schedule 1. Targeting a portfolio of operating renewable electricity generation assets, initially investing in wind generation assets in Ireland. Offer TBC. Due Mid July. QUIZ— Omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA I3 Energy –Schedule 1 Update. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, Mid July admission. Verditek— Sch 1 update. The Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June Rockpool Acquisitions—Northern Ireland based Company seeking strong NI acquisition with an international outlook. Raising £1.5m at 10p. Due 5 July. Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Prospectus yet to be published. Impact Investment Trust—Exposure to a diversified portfolio of funds providing SMEs across developing economies with the growth capital they need to have a positive impact on the lives of the world's poorer populations. Raising up to $150m at $1.00 Residential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. Kuwait Energy— has not been able to complete its initial public offering as announced in its Intention To Float of 3 May 2017. However, in light of positive feedback from potential investors, the Company remains committed to obtaining a London listing and continues to explore its options. Supermarket Income REIT– Up to £200m raise to acquire a diversified portfolio of supermarket real estate assets in the UK, providing long-term RPI-linked income. Due 21 July.
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06 Jul 17
Small Cap Breakfast
QUIZ— omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA | Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets . Expected late June. Offer TBA. | Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA | Touchstone Exploration— Oil exploration and production company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90,000 gross acres. Production c. 1,300 boepd. Raising £1.45m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m. Due 26 June. | I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. | Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late June | Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. | Residential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. | ScotGems—Admission due 26 June. Seeking £50-£100m. To investing in a diversified portfolio of Small Cap Companies listed on global stock markets | DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. | Film Finances—Sky News reports that ‘movie financing company with credits including the Hollywood hits La La Land and Nocturnal Animals is plotting a blockbuster premiere on the London stock market that will value it at several hundred million pounds.’ Expected ‘during the summer’. | AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank . The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Valuation range €10.6-€13.3bn. Admission end June. | Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. | NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. | Flying Brands (FBDU.L)—Prospectus approved by FCA. RTO of Stone Checker Software, supplier of technology solutions in the field of kidney stone analysis and prevention. Has raised £550k at 3p. Subject to GM on 15 Jun. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe
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15 Jun 17
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics - Catalysts to come in H2; launch ongoing
Following the FY results, we provide a more detailed update to our numbers in this note. There is no change to our overall view published on 4 April and Shield remains an attractive commercialisation story in our opinion.
25 Apr 17
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Frustrating delays but potential remains intact
There is good and not so good in this release. On the positive side in-market sales in Q1 ’17 look meaningful in the context of the very recent launch in Germany and slow access in the UK – where the drug is available commentary suggests uptake is strong. On the negative side, access in the UK has been slower than expected. The company has provided current year and long range sales guidance to reflect such delays.
04 Apr 17
Small Cap Breakfast
ADES International Holding— Intends to join the Standard List in May raising up to $170m plus a vendor sale. Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa. | Integumen— Intention to Float from the personal health company developing and commercialising technology and products for the human integumentary system. Raising £2.25m at 5p. Expected market cap £8.25m. Admission expected 5 April. | Franchise Brands—Schedule 1 detailing £28m reverse takeover of Metro Rod. Admission expected 11 April. | Alpha FX Group— Schedule 1 from the foreign exchange provider focused on managing exchange rate risk for UK corporates that trade internationally. Fundraise TBC. Admission expected 7 April. | K3 Capital Group—Schedule 1 from the Group of business and company sales specialists across business transfer, business brokerage and corporate finance. Admission date and fundraise details TBC. Tufton Oceanic Assets– Offer extended to 9 May to enable investors to complete further due diligence.
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04 Apr 17
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Positive update on Germany but UK access slower. Remain confident into further news in April
Shield this morning provided a business update on the Feraccru launch and ongoing R&D. Whilst the release contains little in the way of hard numbers, having spoken to management we believe the signs on in-market sales are positive in Germany.
06 Jan 17
Cambridge Cognition* (COG.L) | Crossword Cybersecurity * (ISDX:CCS) | Smart Metering Systems (SMS.L) | Berkeley Energia (BKY.L) | Clontarf Energy (CLON.L) | EVR Holdings (EVRH.L) | Shield Therapeutics (STX.L) | Pittards (PTD.L) | Mountfield Group (MOGP.L) | Lighthouse Group (LGT.L)
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20 Sep 16
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics* - Major positive: first composition patent grant, PT upgraded
Shield Therapeutics announced this morning the grant of a UK patent covering the composition of its lead product Feraccru. We understand the patent covers all four known polymorphic forms of Feraccru, potentially providing robust composition of matter protection out to 2034.
07 Sep 16
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics - Feraccru launched in UK, pricing looks above our expectations
Whilst the financials from today's results announcement were always going to be mostly unimportant (they relate to FY 2015 pre the Feb IPO), the news on the UK launch of Feraccru is positive. The product was launched on schedule in the UK in May with a price of £1.70 per day agreed with the Department of Health.
14 Jun 16
LIBERUM: Shield Therapeutics - Initiation: Late stage, high potential spec pharma
Shield is a very rare example of a UK pharma company that has come to market with a lead product that has already been approved and is ready for launch. Feraccru treats anaemia* and is a safe, effective and oral alternative to existing intravenous iron treatments which are hospital administered, expensive and potentially dangerous.
04 Apr 16