Phoenix Spree Deutschland - One city but two tales

Phoenix Spree Deutschland’s (PSD’s) trading update contrasts the strength of the Berlin private rental sector, reflected in PSD’s increased rents and low vacancy, with the subdued investment market, which continues to weigh on property valuations. Positively, sales of individual condominiums picked up in H223, underlining the strong premium to rental values. Full year results, to 31 December 2023, are due in late April.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - To buy or to rent?

A trading update from Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) shows that the core rental business remained strong in H123 although property values declined further, and transactions activity remains subdued. It notes some recent signs of improved buyer interest in the condominium market, but it remains too early to call a turn. We will review our estimates when interim results are released in late September. H123 rental growth is ahead of our expectations but revaluation indicates downwards pressure on

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Stress-testing the challenges

Phoenix Spree Deutschland’s (PSD’s) core rental business continues to perform well as the demand-supply balance for Berlin rented residential accommodation remains tight. However, the challenging economic backdrop has negatively affected property values, NAV and condominium sales. While DPS has been paused to maintain cash flow for value-creating portfolio investment, PSD remains conservatively financed, with 83% of debt costs fixed/hedged and no debt maturities until 2026.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Valuation decline but sales premium continuing

While German macroeconomic conditions are challenging, the fundamental demand-supply balance for Berlin rented residential accommodation remains robust. Phoenix Spree’s (PSD’s) FY22 property values and NAV declined, but condominium sales continue to generate a strong premium to book value. We expect rental growth also when results are released in March, as the company continues to harvest strong rent reversion.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Well positioned for market turbulence

In a challenging environment, we expect Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) to show continuing rental growth but weaker capital returns from slower condominium sales and market-wide yield widening. Demographic trends remain positive, and reversionary rent potential embedded within the portfolio remains strong. Gearing is modest and debt costs are fixed.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Progress in a more challenging environment

In an increasingly challenging environment, Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSDL) has reported ongoing growth in rents and portfolio values for H122. Demographic trends within the Berlin residential market remain positive and the company continues to unlock reversionary rent potential. Rising interest rates and increased uncertainties have nonetheless slowed condominium notarisations. We will review our forecasts with the interim results that PSDL expects to release during the last week of September.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Positive return to core strategy

Driven by a continuing housing shortage, Berlin residential property rents and condominium prices have continued to increase over the past year. Having successfully weathered the now repealed rent restrictions, we expect Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) to continue to extract the significant value embedded in its portfolio successfully despite the uncertainties of rising inflation and interest rates and war in Ukraine.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Delivering on reversion strategy

With rent restrictions (the ‘Mietendeckel’) repealed, the Berlin residential property market has remained robust, with free market rents and condominium prices increasing further amid a continuing housing shortage. FY21 performance for Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) mirrors these trends and its extensive refurbishment programme targets further release of the strong rent reversion potential of its portfolio.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Good H1 growth and return to core strategy

Although rent controls (the ‘Mietendeckel’), ruled unlawful and repealed in April 2021, disrupted the Berlin residential property market, this has not prevented free market rents and condominium prices from increasing further amid a continuing housing shortage. Against this background, H121 results from Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) showed good progress as it resumes its core rent reversion strategy.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Flexibility to extract value

The repeal of the Berlin rent cap (the ‘Mietendeckel’), ruled unconstitutional, is a significant positive for Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD). It allows a resumption of its core reversionary rent strategy, providing greater flexibility in the extraction of the value embedded in the portfolio. With a continuing discount to net assets, the board has stepped up the share repurchase programme, aiming to ensure that the share price better reflects its view of intrinsic value and the improved outlook.

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Continuing strong returns despite rent cap

The Berlin rent cap has disrupted the market, but with a continuing housing shortage and new investment curtailed, free-market rents and condominium prices continued to increase in FY20, driving continuing strong returns for Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD). As discussed in detail in our December initiation note, pending a resolution of the rent cap legal challenge, PSD has sought to mitigate the effects while maintaining strategic flexibility; a resolution, which PSD expects by mid-year, will de

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - H220 valuation growth and NAV exceeds forecast

The Berlin residential property market remained resilient in H220 despite COVID-19 and introduction of the rent cap. Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) saw a 6.3% like-for-like increase in FY20 valuations, supporting strong growth in EPRA NAV per share, above our forecast. As discussed in detail in our December initiation note, pending a resolution of the rent cap legal challenge, PSD has sought to mitigate the effects while maintaining strategic flexibility; a resolution, which PSD expects by mid-

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Continuing to realise embedded value

H220 condominium sales increased strongly at a healthy c 20% average premium to book value and disposal proceeds have supported continuing share repurchases at a c 30% discount to net asset value (NAV), enhancing value creation. As discussed in detail in our December initiation note, pending a resolution of the rent cap legal challenge, so far Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) has sought to mitigate the effects while maintaining strategic flexibility; a resolution, which PSD expects mid-year, will

Phoenix Spree Deutschland - Rent cap decision will determine strategy

Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) is a pure play on Berlin residential property, where excess demand drives free market rent growth. H120 financial performance was robust despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the first effects of Berlin rent controls. Recent full implementation of the legislation will significantly reduce FY21 rental income and peg rents for five years, but it remains PSD’s firm view that the legislation will ultimately be ruled unconstitutional and overturned. Our central scenario (s

Winners and losers in September

There was an eclectic mix of property companies to feature in the top price movers for September. Top of the tree was private rented sector and residential development specialist Sigma Capital Group, with a 34.2% rise. The group launched a £1bn joint venture with EQT Real Estate, the real estate platform of global investment firm EQT, to deliver 3,000 private rental homes in Greater London. Micro-cap investor Panther Securities also hit double-digit gains, while Macau Property Opportunities saw

Lowland Investment Company - Is the tide turning?

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Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.

PCI Pal - +25% FY23 revenue growth, FY24 growth of +28% reiterated

PCI Pal’s FY23 results show revenue growth of +25% to £14.9m, gross profit growth of +31% to £13.1m at a margin of 88%, and an outlook confirming robust momentum in H1 24. The FY23 results are as expected following the August trading update, and FY23 Total Annual Contract Value (TACV) is +23% yoy to £16.4m, with ARR +14% yoy to £12.6m due to £3.1m of contracts in deployment. We expect ARR will increase +35% and +31% to £17.0m and £22.2m in FY24 and FY25, as management lands and expands following

Redde

Proposed share-for-share merger with Northgate

Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Vector Capital - Full year results illustrate challenging backdrop; dividend maintained

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Strong H1'23 results; forecasts upgraded