No major surprise in Q2 21 in the Property business: vacancy stands at a high level but was roughly flat sequentially. Reservations in the Residential Development business were flat sequentially too: strong lfl growth in H1 21 can therefore not be extrapolated to H2 21-2022. A negative base effect could occur in H1 22, in our view.
Companies: Icade (ICAD:EPA)Icade SA (ICAD:PAR)
Q1 21 revenue was up 43% lfl with a negative contribution from the Property segment. Residential development was up 128% (lfl, IFRS) pushed by apartments delivered to the French Government arm (CDCH).
Much as Covivio and Gecina did earlier, Icade released a reassuring picture at pixel time (December 2020) as far as offices were concerned. It experienced some little negative revaluations too, but the balance sheet stays under control. It will pay a stable cash dividend of €4.01 per share.
As per Gecina, Icade’s vacancy was more or less stable on a sequential basis in Q3 20. The most interesting figure was the decreasing number of residential reservations in Q3 20, ahead of the contribution from the CDCH (French government). This reflects lower confidence from both individual investors and first-time individual buyers.
Companies: Icade SA
NNNAV was stable in H1 20 as valuers consider that the crisis doesn’t impact offices until now. It’s a fact that due to this specific business’s inertia, both vacancy and pressure on rents will not increase before H1 21, in our view.
We believe in a strong adjustment in Office values in FY 20-22. It could end in putting the balance sheet at risk. Having been negative during the last rush phase upto February 2020, we are now back to a negative stance after the share’s recent bounce. Just remember that 2009-10 resulted in a c. 25% adjustment in Icade’s GAV (Offices, lfl). Why should it be only 5-10% this time?
Following Covivio, Gecina, SFL… Icade reported a nice set of FY 19 figures. Positive revaluations slowed in the City of Paris in H2 19 (1.3% vs. 3.1% in H1 19) despite the acceleration in the heart of the City in H2 19. The surprise came from assets outside the Paris Region, showing a 19% lfl increase in H2 19 vs. 1% in H1 19. Following the share price’s rally, we stick to our negative stance.
Icade qualified its leasing activity as “resilient” in 9M 19 vs. “solid” in H1 19, or a change in its wording in our view. In fact, we observed a lfl decrease in rents in Q3 19. This leads us to become more cautious, aside our questions concerning the French Offices end-market around the City of Paris for some months.
There were some positive revaluations in H1 19 and rents increased slightly at constant perimeter. Both were slightly above the rents indexation, suggesting a very limited yield compression in H1 19, or some negative ones in some asset pockets. We continue to point out the weaker end-market around Paris (excluding the City of Paris) where Icade’s buildings are mainly located.
Icade’s rental business performed well in Q1 19 thanks a nice 2% inflation (indexation). However, the Residential and Office backlogs were down by respectively 8% and 47% yoy, or +5% and -5% vs. 31 December.
The most important figure for FY 18, not only for ICADE but for other players too, is the 22% drop in Development business backlog: -8% in houses business, -55% in Office business.
Icade’s FY19-22 Plan is gearing for growth in the office investment (targeting 75% in FY22 vs. 55% today).
Icade released its H1 results with good performances across its three business lines. The company also announced its FY19-22 plan with a focus on development and growth, LTV around 40% vs. 41.8% currently, etc.
In FY17, Icade’s attributable net profit posted an increase of 193.9% yoy, to €170.3m. The portfolio value reached €10.8bn, up by 11.1% yoy, reflecting the positive impacts of acquisitions, development projects and higher occupancy rates. The year was characterised by strong leasing activity which was mainly backed by the acquisition of ANF Immobilier. The figures were above our estimates and translated a positive year for Icade. Thus, we will upgrade our model.
Icade released its Q3 figures. On 30 September, the company’s revenues stood at €1,152.9m, a 16.1% yoy increase, driven by development revenues (c. 62.3%). Development property generated revenue of €719.2m, up by 28.2% from Q3 16. Management confirmed its 2017 outlook for net current cash flow per share: growth of around 7%.
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Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
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Companies: Altus Strategies PLC
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Companies: M&G Plc
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Companies: Nextenergy Solar Fund
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Companies: Deltic Energy PLC
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Companies: Tatton Asset Management Plc
Tatton has acquired the Verbatim funds from Fintel for (up to) £5.8m adding £650m AuM – and pushing Tatton’s AuM through the £10bn milestone. A long term strategic partnership has also been formed allowing Tatton to market to Fintel’s significant intermediary client base. We upgrade our earnings forecasts by +4% for the part year contribution in FY22e and +11% FY23e (the first full year) – but make no assumption around the potentially material opportunity from the distribution partnership. Tatto
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Companies: Harworth Group PLC
In line interim results to 30 June 2021: reported revenue was £11.4m, down 3.4%, as a result of the trust disposals; and reported PBT was £0.9m, down 6.5% YoY also as a result of disposals as well as disappointing volumes in certain areas of new business, namely UK SIPPs and the flexible annuity product. Positively, however, higher-than-anticipated revenues came from UK workplace pensions, while recurring revenues improved, reaching 88% without the inclusion of transaction-driven income in the d
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