A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGR CSH ESP DIGS IHR LXI PHP RESI SIR SUPR THRL SOHO BBOX SHED WHR
There was palpable shift in sentiment over the third quarter with the cautionary undertone perhaps best reflected by gold’s resurgence. Ongoing trade jockeying between the US and China did not help the mood and neither did the Argentine debt default in August. At the real economy level, manufacturing output has been trending lower across some of the major global economies.
Companies: AEMC BIOG SIGT IBT JEFI MHN MERI MTE PSHD RSE SIR FJV LTI MVI SEQI SOND SLI EGL SUPP VNH CSH VSL BRLA UTL ADAM SOHO GPM TPOU LEAF JRS JLEN SEC IGC MPO LIV INTU THRL
Interswitch, a Nigeria-based payments firm, has hired advisers to resurrect plans for a stock-market listing in London and Lagos later this year, which may value the financial technology company at $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited the IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m. Roxi Music UK music streaming service plans London IPO as it goes up against Spotify. They have appointed investment bank Arden Partners for
an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange later this year.
Companies: DX/ BKS SIR SMRT DOTD SEE GAN UOG RENX CHRT
TRIG – Renewables Infrastructure Group – February 2019 NAV and asset | BBOX – Tritax Big Box – Finals to 31 December 2018 | SIR – Secure Income REIT – Finals to 31 December 2018 | FSFL – Foresight Solar – Finals to 31 December 2018
Companies: TRIG BBOX SIR FSFL
Secure Income REIT – Interims to 30 June 2018 | Phaunos Timber – CatchMark statement
Companies: Secure Income Reit Phaunos Timber Fund
City law firm Rosenblatt reported in the press to be considering a London listing. The commercial firm had a reported revenue of £16m in 2017
VR Education Holdings—a virtual reality software and technology company. Raising £6m at 10p, mkt cap £19.3. Due 12 March
SimplyBiz, a Financial Services Firm, reported to be considering an IPO targeting a market capitalisation of between £140m and £155m in a listing that would raise £30m of new money.
Bacanora Lithium—Readmission. No new money. Mkt cap £140m. Due 21 March. the new holding company for Bacanora Minerals Ltd
Core Industrial REIT—established to invest in Irish-based industrial properties, predominantly located in the Greater Dublin Area. Vendor placing and new funds to a total of €225m, Target gross proceeds €207m. Expected Mid March
Polarean - Medical drug-device combination company operating in the high resolution medical imaging market. Offer TBC. Due 26 March
Block Energy—a NEX Listed UK based oil exploration and production company whose main country of operation is the Republic of Georgia, looks to join AIM end of February 2018. Offer TBC
Companies: VAST SIR IGP ARK PLMO KAT TUNE COIN SDX RM2
Secure Income REIT’s (SIR) FY16 results show income in line with expectations and 14.4% NAV growth per share. SIR has some of the longest leases in the sector, on either fixed or uncapped, upward-only RPI-linked rent reviews. Fixed debt and formulaic advisory costs lead to high predictability and lock in profits to support a rising and dependable dividend. Despite a material valuation gain, portfolio net initial yield was flat year-on-year as yield tightening on existing assets was offset by the acquisition of the Travelodge portfolio in October at a 7% yield. While the market appears to value SIR in line with long-lease peers on an earnings yield basis, the strong likelihood of NAV appreciation driven by rising rents may not be fully recognised. Our forecasts support the manager’s expectation of 11% compounded annual NAV and dividend returns to 2021.
Companies: Secure Income Reit
Secure Income REIT (Secure) targets predictable cash flows from a broad range of real estate assets, which offer very long leases (average unexpired lease term more than 23 years) subject to annual fixed or RPI linked rent uplifts, to high-quality tenants providing strong covenants. The external manager has a strong track record, with interests strongly aligned to other shareholders. The prospects for medium-term dividend growth are very strong, while NAV should also grow at unchanged yields. The starting valuation seems modest compared with similar defensive sector peers.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Secure Income Reit.
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Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Equals' FY19A results confirm another year of strong, double-digit revenue and adj EBITDA growth. The move to a B2B focused offering continues to progress and looks well timed in view of Covid-19's impact on overseas travel. While the pandemic impacted Q2/20E trading early on, we note June KPI's indicate a positive rebound. Given the continued uncertainty as to Covid's full impact upon FY20E trading, we refrain from reissuing forecasts and thus leave our recommendation under review.
Companies: Equals Group
Accelerating activity in to FY21
Companies: Manolete Partners
Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 19.25p/£64.7m) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 92.5p/£8.2m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 10.75p/£29.0m) | Checkit plc (CKT.L, 39.5p/£24.5m)
Companies: BIRD MIRA MIRA TERN CKT
The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the share price of property companies, with 31% wiped off the value of their total market capitalisation during the first quarter of 2020.
Companies: AEWU CREI CSH BOOT INL HLCL THRL SUPR RESI RGL DIGS GR1T SOHO PHP BOXE ASLI UTG AGR UAI BLND UANC CAL SHED CWD WHR EPIC WKP GRI YEW HMSO PCA INTU NRR
S4 Capital has announced the merger of Lens10, a leading Australian digital strategy & analytics consultancy, with MightyHive, its data & programmatic media practice. Founded in 2010, Lens10 provides a range of data services including digital strategy, digital analytics, optimisation and tag management. It is a certified Google Partner in Google Analytics, Google Cloud & Google Marketing Platform and is an Adobe Analytics partner. It has 25 data specialists in Melbourne and Sydney, and has a blue-chip client list including CottonOn, National Rugby League, Australian Ballet and ME Bank. Data analytics continues to grow in importance as marketers accelerate their digital transformation and S4 Capital indicates it has seen explosive demand for these services. No financial information has been disclosed, though we note the group reiterates its commitment not to compromise its balance sheet, which remains net cash. Separately, the group has announced that Miles Young, previously Chairman & CEO of Ogilvy, is joining the board. He has particular expertise in creative work and talent, new technologies and Asia Pacific developed over 35yrs at Ogilvy
Companies: S4 Capital
Record delivered full year results matching expectations with assets under management equivalent (AUME) slightly ahead as positive inflows more than offset the impact of market moves and fee margins were broadly stable. The group also demonstrated its operational resilience and expertise to clients during the onset of COVID-19 and accompanying volatility. Looking ahead, the group has a fresh focus on growth and to support this is investing in a measured way in IT and its staff.
FY20 results – increased firepower to acquire
Companies: First Property Group
REACT Group plc (REACT) is exploiting a gap in the market for specialist deep cleaning services for customers in the public and private sectors, with revenues split 50/50 between reactive work and regular maintenance. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a significant upturn in activity in certain sectors (such as healthcare and transport) but temporarily weaker demand from others (such as hospitality). While its Covid-related work is by no means its biggest revenue generator, the legacy of the pandemic is likely to have a profound impact on future levels of activity as all businesses and organisations become more aware of the importance of maintaining high standards of cleanliness and hygiene. With a new management team and strengthened balance sheet, we believe the outlook is positive, a view that has been supported by the Group’s interim results which have generated maiden profits.
Companies: React Group
Wirecard UK’s suspension by the FCA has been lifted, allowing U Account business through Shelby Holdings and Morses Club to resume as normal, permitting customers full access to cash, which was previously frozen, albeit ring-fenced in a safe Barclays UK account. Morses Club has offered its U Account customers free use of the previously affected U Account accounts in July as compensation for the issue, helping to mitigate any negative impact and ensuring the relationship with customers remains strong.
Companies: Morses Club
Red Dwarf, the very British sci-fi comedy franchise, ran for 11 seasons – most recently in 2017; and The Promised Land is a feature-length TV movie – out this year. Yes, the programme is an acquired taste. Strangely, too, many episodes are impacted by a virus or three (physiological, not main-frame).
Companies: WJG BKG CSP CRST MCS INL BDEV RDW GLE SPR TW/ PSN VTY GLV CRN ABBY BWY
A robust set of FY20E numbers and the absence of evidence of material bad debts increases, should reassure today and provide evidence 1pm's multi-product, sector diverse, hybrid model can deliver in tougher conditions. Given a NAV p/s of 62p (30p tangible), which now includes enhanced Covid-19 provisions, the material discount to book is clearly unwarranted.
Today's reassuring AGM statement confirms strong trading over Q1/20E and a resilient Q2/20E performance to date, despite the shutdown of the UK housing market over that period. A further +£1.3m of net cash has been produced this year which will partly be used to restart franchisee assisted acquisitions. Given current uncertainty over the economic impact of COVID-19, our recommendation remains Under Review.
Companies: Property Franchise Group
FY20 Interim results
Companies: Litigation Capital Management
Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG LN) has today announced a trading update for the full year ending 31 March 2020. The unaudited NAV has risen 13% YoY to 116.7p, up 14.3% since the last published NAV of 102.2p as at 10 January 2020. This represents a like for like valuation uplift of 11.4%. All equity has been fully deployed and shareholder approval has been sought to increase net debt from 20% to 30%. Revenue is strong with £64.7m generating an EPS of 10.7p (more than 2x the annual 5p dividend target). NAV growth has been driven by revenue statements which were up 2%, and an increase in streaming growth rate assumptions by the independent valuers. The portfolio comprises 54 catalogues, with 13,291 individual songs, now valued at £757m which was acquired at purchase price of £697m on an acquisition multiple of 13.9x – now valued on 15.0x historical earnings.
Companies: Hipgnosis Songs Fund Ld