Improving confidence triggers special dividend

Castings Plc (CGS LN) - Initiation of coverage: Strong recovery in FY22

FY22 results show a marked recovery on the pandemic impacted FY21 numbers with volumes broadly in line with pre-Covid levels, albeit c.5% below FY19 peak. Revenue increased 29.5% to £148.6m (FY21: £114.7m) with adj operating profit of £12.0m (FY21: £4.3m), a 180% increase yoy as the margin more than doubled to 8.1% (FY21: 3.7%) benefitting from the recovery in volume and with prices increasing 4.7%. Despite the strong recovery in FY22, several important KPIs remain below pre-pandemic levels with

FY22E beat

Strong OEM demand supports compelling value case

Castings* - Interim Results – OEM and Supply Chain Disruption

Castings has released FY22 interim results which highlight the supply chain challenges in the truck OEM industry. The headlines figures and trends had already been flagged at the recent trading update so the trends are largely known. The Group is well positioned to grow earnings as supply chain conditions normalise. Buy

Castings* - Interim Trading Update – OEM Disruption

Castings has released an interim trading update that chimes with much of the recent sector news flow in that supply chain challenges and resulting truck OEM disruption are impacting the sales and margins at Castings. Industry demand remains high which cushions part of the story but near term issues are likely to impact trading through the second half.

Castings* - AGM Trading Update

Castings has issued an AGM trading update indicating that output in the first fiscal quarter was in line with pre-COVID years but with some scheduling and supply chain challenges which create some uncertainty through the balance of the year. However, truck demand has proven very strong and we anticipate high production at the Group should support growth and margins through FY22. Buy.

Castings* - FY21 Results In Line – Excellent outlook for FY22

Castings reported FY21 results largely inline with our forecasts and, despite truck customer disruption due to global semiconductor shortages, volumes are likely to increase in the second half of FY22. Castings is maintaining full production through FY22 with increasing back stock which bodes well for margin performance with potential further EPS upgrades on the horizon considering the level of customer activity. Reiterate buy rating.

Castings* - Trading Update Inline – Upside to FY22

Castings has released a trading update highlighting that output levels have, in general, been strong and inline with previous trajectory noted at the interim results in November. The Group indicates that results for FY21 are anticipated to be in line with market expectations. Following on from this, we believe upside risk to forecasts for FY22 could result in meaningful share price returns. Buy

Castings* - Improving outlook – Reinstating Forecasts

As expected, Castings' interim results highlighted a tough period with customer shutdowns and lockdown measures causing a 43% decline in revenue. Pent-up demand, a recovering trucking industry and strong new truck orders supports activity levels that have now reached 100% of pre-COVID levels and likely to exceed this in short order. Reinstate buy rating.

Castings*

FY20 results – Well Positioned for Recovery

Castings*

Year-end trading update

IOG - Forecast and valuation update

Forecast and valuation update

Exceptional transformation… and it may be just a beginning

With several opportunistic but timely acquisitions in 2021, coupled with the recent surge in the oil price, Zenith Energy has, in our view, completely transformed itself and its value proposition to investors. While for various reasons it has not been easy for the market to fully recognise and reward this transformation, we expect 1) doubling production, 2) further strengthening of its balance sheet and 3) becoming Free Cash Flow (FCF) generative this year, will make it difficult for the market

IOG - Production update

Production update

Pantheon Resources (PANR) - Significant Increase in Fair Value Estimate

We are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 208p, from under review (previously 184p). The change reflects what we believe was an unambiguously positive winter drilling campaign. This full note details the background analysis to the change in estimate of fair value, which includes a valuation table and an assessment of the forthcoming Alkaid#2 well.

Cenkos: Chariot Ltd -- Fast-Tracking the Anchois Development

Chariot has signed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) agreement with Schlumberger and Subsea 7 (the Subsea Integration Alliance) for the Anchois gas development project. Chariot and the Subsea Integration Alliance will adopt a “one team” integrated and collaborative approach to fast-track first gas from Anchois to maximise the return on investment for all stakeholders. The scope of work covers all the development's offshore elements including well completions and subsea production systems

Arrow Exploration - RCS-1 flow testing results

RCS-1 flow testing results

Cenkos: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc --Commencement of Drilling Programme

Trinity has announced the commencement of its highly anticipated onshore drilling campaign. The Company's fully funded, six well drilling programme will target an aggregate 450-1,100mmbbls of reserves at a cost of US$14-17m. In addition to drilling four “conventional” low angle wells, Trinity will also drill one horizontal well and one deeper appraisal well, with both the horizontal and deeper appraisal wells having the potential to deliver substantially higher production and economic returns ve

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): 0.72 mmbbl sales will trigger a US$60 mm payment to PetroTal earlier than expected

• Section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline has been temporary re-opened. • As a result, 0.72 mmbbl of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has been tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. This oil previously entered the pipeline in late 2020 for which PetroTal was paid just ~US$45/bbl at the time. • PetroTal will receive the difference between this price and the price at which Petroperu will sell the oil in July (~US$120/bbl), generating over US$60 mm of price adjustment true-up r

Cenkos: Wentworth Resources Plc -- 7.1% Yield and Growth

Wentworth has announced a positive operational update ahead of its AGM to be held later today. Daily production year-to-date (YTD) has averaged 92.2MMscf/d, a c15% YoY increase (2021: 79.9MMscf/d) and ahead of Wentworth's 2022 guidance of 75-85MMscf/d. As noted previously, the strong performance of the Mnazi Bay asset YTD has allowed Wentworth to increase its total dividend distribution in respect of 2021 to 1.7p per share, a yield of c7.1%. Mnazi Bay continues to supply Tanzania with half of th

SHORE CAPITAL - TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION+ (TXP) - House Stock at 63p – Cascadura EIA review process update

Vanchem Kiln 3 up and running as path mapped to longer-term consolidated target of 8,000t V pa

Completion of commissioning of Kiln 3 at Vanchem last month keeps Bushveld on track to end 2022 with a sustainable production run rate of 5,000-5,400t V pa, a solid platform from which to refocus on longer-term growth. Fully utilising the vast array of processing infrastructure at Vanchem to treat feed from an expanded mining and ore concentration operation at Vametco makes a lot of sense given the fixed component of costs at the former and the large mineral resource at the latter. Bushveld’s re

LIBERUM: Caledonia Mining* - Initiation - Ugly duckling becoming a golden swan in Zimbabwe

Morning Note – 6 July 2022

SolGold: Model update following PFS filing; de-risking continues with optimisations expected by year end

We have updated our valuation for SolGold (“SOLG”) following the filing of the Cascabel PFS technical report. The changes result in a US$3.6bn NPV8% and 22% IRR (immediately pre-capex) at US$8,500/t Cu and US$1,850/oz Au, driving a modest cut in our target to 85p/sh (Jun’23E) from 101p. Nonetheless, we view this as a solid base case, with tangible potential upside through: inclusion of the open-pit Tandayama-America (“TAM”) deposit 3km away; additional caves and throughput capacity to capture th

WH Ireland: Savannah Resources (SAV) - Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Evaluation Update

Savannah, today provides an update on the EIA process for the development of the Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal. The Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA) – Portugal's environmental regulator – has contacted Savannah and both have agreed to continue the EIA evaluation process under ‘Article 16' of the law which regulates Environmental Impact Assessments in Portugal. This voluntary process will allow Savannah to work with the entities that make up APA's Evaluation Committee to amend element