Avesoro Resources (ASO LN) – Youga reserve and resource update | Europa Metals Limited (EUZ LN) – Scoping Study underway on Toral zinc, lead, silver project in Spain Formerly Ferrum Crescent (FCR LN) | Ormonde Mining* (ORM LN) – 2017 results and progress report from Barruecopardo | Phoenix Global Mining* (PGM LN) – Empire Mine BFS drilling underway | Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Aircore drilling at Hanns Camp and Mt Weld identifies follow up targets
Companies: ASO FCR ORM SML PXC
Arc Minerals* (new ticker ARCM LN) – Casa Misisi (Akyanga) project | Anglo American (AAL LN) –De Beers diamond sales see restocking post the Christmas holiday season | Ferrum Crescent (FCR LN) – Maiden resource estimate for Toral project | Phoenix Global Mining* (PGM LN) – Initial cobalt exploration results | Wolf Minerals (WLFE LN) – Process plant improvements | Petropavlovsk (POG LN) – Q4 production update
Companies: OTC AAL FCR POG PXC
Cradle Arc—holding company of a group of companies focused on the exploration and development of precious and base metals projects in Africa. Offer raising £2.4m with market cap of £20.13m. Expected late Jan 2018
Volex VLX.L—The global provider of cable assemblies is proposing to move from the main market to AIM on 19 January. £75m market cap. FYMar18E rev £241.5m and £7.19m PBT.
OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
Companies: PEG LGT ESCH FFHHF GDP FCR 7DIG ARO
Altus Strategies* (ALS LN) BUY – Target price 12.2p – Agreement to acquire Legend Gold completed | Bacanora Minerals (BCN LN) – Founder’s family estate serves legal action against Bacanora Minerals | BHP Billiton (BLT LN) - Establishing process for Samarco claims | Bushveld Minerals (BMN) - BUY – Target price maintained at 11p – First vanadium Redox battery deployed at Eskom | Ferrum Crescent (FCR LN) – Director comes aboard AIM company at reasonable salary level | Patagonia Gold (PGD LN) - Raising £7.76m to proceed with Calcatreu option | Shanta Gold (SHG LN) Hold – Target 5.2p– Valuation update
Companies: BHP BMN FCR SHG BCN PGD
Anglo American (AAL LN) – De Beers diamond sales reflect seasonal closures in India and Israel | Ferrum Crescent (FCR LN) – Myles Campion takes up executive director role | Petropavlovsk (POG LN) – Q3 production update | Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Q3 production described as “strong” | Stratex International (STI LN) – Sale of stake in Goldstone Resources raises cash to continue funding costs relating to Crusader acquisition | Goldstone Resources (GRL LN) – breaks free as Stratex sells stake
Companies: AAL FCR POG RIO ORR GRL
GYG—Intention to float by the superyacht painting, supply and maintenance company. Due 5 July. Raising £6.9m new plus vendor sale of £21.5m at 100p. Mkt Cap c. £47m. Revenue of €54.6m in FY16 and adjusted EBITDA of €6.7m. | Greencoat Renewables - Schedule 1. Targeting a portfolio of operating renewable electricity generation assets, initially investing in wind generation assets in Ireland. Offer TBC. Due Mid July. | FFI Holdings— Specialist in the provision of completion contracts to the entertainment industry for films, television, miniseries and streaming product. Offer TBA. Expected 30 June. | QUIZ— Omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA | Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets. Expected late June. Offer TBA. | Jangada Mines—Sch 1 advanced stage PGM exploration project containing what the Directors understand to be the largest PGM resource, and only pre-development PGM project, in South America. Offer TBA. Expected late June. | Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA | Touchstone Exploration— Oil E&P company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90k gross acres. Production c. 1.3k boepd. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m - 26 June. | I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. | Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June | Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. | Rockpool Acquisitions—Northern Ireland based Company seeking strong NI acquisition with an international outlook. Raising £1.5m at 10p. Due 5 July. | Residential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. | ScotGems—Admission due 26 June. Seeking £50-£100m. To investing in a diversified portfolio of Small Cap Companies listed on global stock markets | DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia,Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. | AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank. The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Valuation range €10.6-€13.3bn. Admission end June. | Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. | NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe. | Supermarket Income REIT– Up to £200m raise to acquire a diversified portfolio of supermarket real estate assets in
the UK, providing long-term RPI-linked income. Due 21 July.
Companies: ORCP WYN LEK HRN FCR EZH MERC WGB ECHO HALO
I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 26 May admission.
Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic,
filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late May.
Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June.
Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus.
NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock
Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June.
Flying Brands (FBDU.L)—Prospectus approved by FCA. RTO of Stone Checker Software, supplier of technology solutions in the field of kidney stone analysis and prevention. Has raised £550k at 3p. Subject to GM on 15 Jun.
AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property
Alfa Financial Software –Intention to float. Mission-critical software platform purpose-built for asset finance enterprises. Vendor sale of 25% plus. FYDec16 rev £73.3m (CAGR of 24% from 2012). Adjusted EBIT £32.8m.
Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe
ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017.
PRS REIT—Private rental sector REIT raising up to £250m. Admission due 31 May
Companies: SAR ARIX AGQ OMIP FCR EMH LDSG YNGA GTLY OGN
Ferrum Crescent (FCR.L) |FitbugHoldings*(FITB.L) | Tristel (TSTL.L) | EmpyreanEnergy (EME.L) | StatPro Group (SOG.L) | Global Invacom Group (GINV.L) | Monitise (MONI.L) | Koovs (KOOV.L) | IronRidge Resources (IRR.L) | BOS Global (BOS.L)
Companies: FCR TSTL EME SOG RAD MONI KOOV IRR BOS BIDS
ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.9m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m, with issue price of 167p.
RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
Companies: PEG IOF ESR EMIS FCR ITM FXI LTG HDD
Check out what's trending in the world of equity research this week...
Asiamet Resources | Coal of Africa | Ferrum Crescent | Metminco | North River Resources | Nyota Minerals
Companies: ARS CZA FCR MNC NRRP NYO
Ferrum Crescent | Gem Diamonds | Wolf Minerals | Sirius Minerals
Companies: FCR GEMD SXX
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Ferrum Crescent.
We currently have 28 research reports from 3
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q4 2020 production with 3,365t of copper taking full year output to 13,855 in line with our forecast of 13.9kt and at the top end of guidance. Q4 lead output was 7,442t meaning 29,741t over the full year, up 2% YoY and in line with our forecast of 30kt while zinc output of 5,848t took full year output to 23,815t again in line with our forecast of 24kt and up 2% YoY despite the disruption at Sasa which CAML has overcome rapidly as we expected.
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
Jubilee put out an intraday press release yesterday updating on the performance in the first half (ending Dec 2020) of the FY 2021. Once again Jubilee delivers; significantly increased revenues and profits from its chrome and PGM division in South Africa and a small, but important, contribution from Zambia. Notably this improvement isn't just from commodity price performance; rather increased production, productivity, throughput, renegotiated contracts and all set alongside the strong performance of commodity prices –rhodium, palladium and platinum. We see this as still only the start for Jubilee as we look forward to the first copper oxide concentrates from the Roan project in Zambia to the Sable Refinery – where the Roan plant is currently under construction. Once again we are struck by the speed at which Jubilee moves to advance its projects and, with its South African cash engine showing no signs of slowing down. Jubilee can choose to move its wider ambitions in Zambia forward from internally generated cash flow. On the back of the strong performance we put our forecasts under review.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group PLC
Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Mineral resources and PEA for Parys Mountain
Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – Further assay results from drilling at the Big One project in Queensland
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – Stable production reported in 2020 with final dividend to be announced in March
IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Sale of non-core gold project
Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Keras increase stake in the Daiamond Creek organic phosphate mine to 51%
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Molopo Farms drilling highlights nickel and PGM potential
Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Progress of Nevada exploration
Companies: POW AYM CAML KRS TYM CCZ IRR
The revised threshold for the imposition of Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) has now been implemented, with the threshold at which SPT is due increasing from US$50/bbl to US$75/bbl for the financial years 2021 and 2022. As a result, we expect Trinity to be exempt from SPT across all of its onshore licences below US$75/bbl. Using the forward WTI oil price curve as the basis for our model, we currently forecast Trinity paying no SPT during 2021 and 2022. We estimate that at the current forward price curve (2021: US$52/bbl) cUS$3.6m of SPT would have previously been payable by Trinity in 2021. As such, these SPT reforms represent a considerable boost to potential cash flow generation from Trinity's onshore licences should realisations average above US$50.01/bbl for any calendar quarter during 2021 and 2022. We update our model, increasing our price target to 32p (from 31p) a 160% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: Trinity Exploration & Production Plc
Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
Union Jack Oil (UJO) has announced that the workover rig, associated services and equipment were mobilised to the Wressle oilfield development site during the week commencing 4 January 2021. The company, which holds a 40% economic interest in Wressle, expects that operations to enable the primary Ashover Grit reservoir to be flowed will be completed prior to the end of January 2021. With the field expected to commence production at a constrained rate of 500 bopd, UJO’s net production will be boosted by an additional 200 bopd providing valuable cash flow to the company in 2021.
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
We put forward a fair value estimate to 82.8p for Pantheon Resources from “under review for an upward revision” as from 25 November 2020 and from 75p as per our initiation note dated 11 November 2020.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Arc Minerals extends exclusivity agreement with Anglo for a further 180 days
Cornish Metals* (CUSN CN) – Intention to float on AIM market
Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Newcrest approves A4146m for preparatory mining work at Havieron
IronRidge Resources* (IRR LN) – Drilling defines multiple targets at Ewoyaa Lithium Project
Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – 2020 production and 2021 guidance
Sunrise Resources (SRES LN) – Progress report on projects
Zamare Minerals* (Private) - Zamare announce agreement with First Quantum Minerals over the Ntambu exploration license in Zambia
Companies: CUSN ARCM GGP KMR SRES IRR
European Metals has recently enjoyed a long overdue share price re-rating. The shares have
increased ten-fold from Covid lows in April 2020 on the back of a marked improvement in
lithium sector sentiment. EMH’s market cap is now £127m. Covid has in many ways accelerated
the push towards EVs and the low carbon agenda. Europe is now the battleground for Electric
Vehicles (“EVs”) where material sources, security of supply and the entire value chain is coming
under ever increasing scrutiny. The DFS at EMH’s Cinovec project is due for completion by the
end of 2021.The time has come for EMH and over the next 12 months we should see with more clarity how
Cinovec fits into Europe’s growing EV and battery industry. We see no other project better
placed to dovetail into the European battery market and supply battery-grade lithium at scale.
Companies: European Metals Holdings Limited
Bahamas Petroleum Company (BPC LN)C; Target Price: 6.70p: Funding update – BPC has exercised a put option to raise £3.75 mm priced at 2p per share.
PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C: Target Price increased from £0.45 to £0.50: US$100 mm bond to accelerate activities and grow production - PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), clean up its balance sheet, put in place a hedging programme and allow the firm to consider regional acquisitions. Assuming the extra funding is put in place, we are increasing our capex programme for 2021 from US$40 mm to US$90 mm. We are also increasing our production forecast for 2021 from ~11 mbbl/d to ~15 mbbl/d that we maintain broadly flat in 2023 as we assume PetroTal will drill additional wells before production starts to decline from 2024. We note that the 3P case only assumes five additional wells (~US$70 mm) compared to the 2P case. With more production, we are now forecasting operating cashflow of ~US$170 mm in 2022 and ~US$155 mm in 2023. We are also increasing our Core NAV from £0.43 per share to £0.52 per share. The additional funding would also allow the company to drill exploration wells such as the 70 mmbbl Constitucion prospect (£0.40 per share Unrisked).
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Increasing our target price from £0.35 to £0.40 per share on reserves uplift – The highlight of Pharos’ operational update is the ~40% increase in 2P reserves in Egypt expected as at YE20 (YE19 28.5 mmbbl). This reflects improved waterflood performance based on recent field data, and a new drilling and workover plan for 2021 onwards. Drilling is expected to recommence in Vietnam in 3Q21, a quarter earlier than previously announced. We have increased our target price from £0.35 per share to £0.40 per share to factor in the expected increase in reserves in Egypt. We estimate the value of Pharos based on Vietnam only at £0.23-0.27 per share. This is 15-35% above the current share price. Securing a partner to fund a development programme with four rigs in Egypt would increase the value of the ~ 40 mmbbl 2P reserves in Eqypt and unlock the contingent and 108 mmbbl prospective resources. Our incremental unrisked value for the four rig programme is £0.17-0.19 per share (~85% upside to the current share price). Successfully negotiating new terms with EGPC could lead to an improvement of up to US$6/bbl in the breakeven price. We have previously estimated that securing similar terms to TransGlobe would boost our Core NAV by £0.10-0.12 per share and ReNAV by £0.13-0.15 per share. TransGlobe Energy’s share price has tripled since the new terms on its licences were announced.
Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; Target Price: SEK75.00: Production update in Oman – Production at Block 3&4 in December was 11,481 bbl/d.
Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US)C; Target Price: £4.00: Initiating Coverage - VAALCO is a US and UK listed ~£75 mm market cap, ~10 mbbl/d oil producer (pro-forma) with West African assets. VAALCO has an excellent track record as an operator having grown a 30 mmbbl discovery in Gabon to a field that has produced >118 mmbbl so far with an additional 37 mmbbl remaining 2P reserves plus ~80 mmbbl upside at YE19. The shares have suffered in the past from (1) a lack of materiality as VAALCO held only ~31% of its main asset, with G&A viewed as representing a disproportionate amount of cash flow and (2) lack of visibility on how the significant amount of cash on the balance sheet would be deployed. The US$44 mm acquisition of an additional ~28% WI in Etame announced in November, thereby almost doubling production, reserves and resources overnight, has addressed these issues. The story is now about continuing to grow reserves at the producing Gabonese field and to replicate this success elsewhere. With estimated net cash of >US$25 mm at the end of 1Q21, VAALCO’ s shares trade at less than half our 2P NAV of ~£2.70 per share. The current share price discounts an EV/DACF multiple of 1.2x in 2021. Low risk infill drilling of contingent resources could add ~£0.45 per share (30% of share price) with an overall unrisked value for the upside at the producing asset of £4.80 per share (~4x the current share price). Finalizing the farm out of its asset in Equatorial Guinea could start unlocking a further £4.20 of unrisked value. Our target price of £4.00 per share (~ our ReNAV) represents ~230% upside.
Wentworth Resources (WEN LN)C; Target Price: £0.40: >100 mmcf/d reached in December - FY20 gross production was 65.36 mmcf/d (in the middle of the 60-70 mmcf/d guidance) with ~83 mmcf/d on average during the month of December. Repairs to the MB-2 flowline were completed on 9 December, increasing the capacity of the field to over 100 mmcf/d. Production reached 103 mmcf/d for five days during that month. Gross production guidance for FY21 is 65-75 mmcf/d, below the 80 mmcf/d we were carrying as production growth is pushed back by a year. Cash on hand of ~US$18 mm is in line with our expectations. With 70 mmcf/d gross production in 2021 and almost no capex, we forecast FY21 Free Cash Flow of ~US$10 mm. With FY20 dividends of only US$3.2 mm and ~US$18 mm in cash, we believe there is scope to increase the dividend. At the current share price, the FY20 dividend represents a yield of ~6%. Even after the recent share price appreciation, the shares continue to trade at EV/DACF multiples of 2.9x in 2021 and 2.2x in 2022. This compares with 3.8x for 2020, suggesting there is room for multiple expansion given the stable nature of the business.
IN OTHER NEWS
88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Acquisition in Alaska – 88 Energy is acquiring the Umiat Oil Field, located on the North Slope of Alaska. The proceeds consist of a 4% overriding royalty interest and the assumption of the abandonment liability of two historic wells (at an estimated cost of ~US$1 mm). Umiat is an historic oil discovery, made in 1945 in shallow Brookian (Nanushuk) sandstones, located immediately adjacent to southern boundary of Project Peregrine. The Umiat-23H well was flow tested at a sustained rate of 200 bbl/d with no water in 2014. Gross 2P reserves were estimated at 123.7 mmbbl on 1 December 2015.
Equinor (EQNR NO): Farming down Argentinian offshore exploration to Shell - Equinor and YPF farm-down 30% interests in the CAN 100 block, located in the North Argentinian Basin to Shell.
Pantheon Resources (PANR LN): Dispute in East Texas and acquisition of new acreage - Kinder Morgan has filed a petition against Pantheon, seeking payment of ~US$3.35mm with respect to the early termination of a Gas Treating Agreement between Kinder Morgan and Vision Operating Company. In a separate statement, the company indicated it has acquired 100% interest in ~66,000 acres in the State of Alaska's North Slope Areawide Lease Sale. The new leases are positioned in two areas contiguous to the company’s current acreage.
Parex Resources (PXT CN): Operation update in Colombia – 4Q20 production was 46,550 boe/d compared to Parex’ guidance of 45,500-47,500 boe/d. 1Q21 production is expected to average 46,500-47,500 boe/d. The Brent/Vasconia differential is currently ~US$2/bbl. Parex estimates a cash position of US$325 mm at YE20.
Total (FP FP): Discovery in Suriname - The Keskesi East-1 well, in Block 58, encountered a total of 63 meters net pay of hydrocarbons, comprised of 58 meters net black oil, volatile oil, and gas pay in good quality Campano-Maastrichtian reservoirs, along with 5 meters of net volatile oil pay in Santonian reservoirs.
Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN): Operating update in the UK – Phase 1 remains on schedule for First Gas in 3Q21. Drilling is expected to start in early 2Q21.
Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Operating update in the UK North Sea - Production for the final four months of 2020 averaged 12,500 bbl/d. Current water cut is 25%. YE20 net free cash was US$106 mm, compared to US$87 mm at 30 November 2020.
Lundin Energy (LUNE SS): Resources increase in Norway – YE20 2P reserves are 670.9 mmboe (+ 39.3 mmboe versus YE19). The YE20 2C resources are 275.5 mmboe (+90.2 mmboe et YE19).
OMV (OMV AG): Trading update – 4Q20 production was 472 mboe/d including 290 mboe/d of natural gas.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Enwell Energy (ENW LN): Operating update in the Ukraine – 4Q20 production was 4,444 boe/d. At YE20, the company held US$61 mm in cash.
Petroneft (PTR LN): Potential acquisition in Russia – Petroneft is looking to acquire an additional 40% interest in Licence 67 from Belgrave Naftogas for US$2.9 mm including US$1.2 mm in shares and the balance in cash.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN): Operating update in Kurdistan – FY20 gross production at Shaikan was 36,625 bbl/d with current production of 44,000 bbl/d. As at 12 January 2021, the Company had a cash balance of US$147 mm. FY21 gross production guidance has been set at 40,000 to 44,000 bbl/d with US$15 to $20 mm net capex and US$2.5 to US$2.9/bbl opex.
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Terms update for bonds – ShaMaran is looking to use free cash in excess of US$15 mm to buy back its Bonds in the market to satisfy the cash sweep redemption requirements.
United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Production update in Egypt – 2H20 WI production was 2,340 boe/d in line with guidance for the period of 2,300 boe/d.
BW Energy (NEW NO): Farm-in transaction in Namibia – BW Energy is acquiring 39% WI in the Kudu offshore licence from the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR). BW will pay US$4 mm in cash and carry NAMCOR’s share of development costs until first gas. NAMCOR will also have the opportunity to acquire an additional 5% working interest post first gas.
Orca Energy (ORC.A/B CN): Update in Tanzania – FY20 sales volumes were 57.7 mmcf/d. Cash and short-term investments totalled US$103.8 mm at YE20. As at YE20 there were no current receivables due from TANESCO. The TANESCO long-term trade receivable was US$27.6 mm.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
18/01/2021: Repsol (REP SM) – Trading update
19/01/2021: Genel Energy (GENL LN) – 4Q20 trading update
20/01/2021: Cairn Energy (CNE LN): Trading update
Companies: 88E BPC EQNR HUR LUNE PXT PHAR SNM TETY TETY FP EGY WEN
Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) – BUY, Valuation 29.4p – Bluejay agrees jv with Rio Tinto over the Enonkoski Project in Finland
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY - Valuation 37.7p – Ferro-Vanadium prices jump 11.6% in the US
Edenville Energy* (EDL LN) – Funding agreement refinanced and £900k raised
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Further progress at West African gold assets
Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) – Karowe mine yields 341 carat diamond
Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) –Q4 production results continue modest recovery of Q3
Companies: LUC JAY BMN EDL KOD SRB
Oil posted the biggest weekly gain since late September as Saudi Arabia's plan to slice output spurred a surge in physical crude buying.
Futures in New York advanced $3.72 this week and Brent oil topped $55 a barrel for the first time since February. Saudi Arabia's pledge earlier this week to cut production by 1 million barrels a day in February and March has made for a tighter supply outlook sooner than anticipated. Meanwhile, prospects for additional stimulus under a Biden administration spurred broader market gains.
Saudi Arabia's surprise cut appears to have caught some Asian buyers by surprise and demand for US crude for export to Asia has gained this week. Unipec, the trading arm of China's largest refiner, bought its eighth cargo of North Sea crude in a pricing window run by S&P Global Platts this week and was seeking more in what may be the heaviest buying of its kind on record.
Brent's move above $55 a barrel caps a stellar few months for the oil market, with crude emerging as a favoured play to bet on coronavirus vaccines and global reflation. Saudi Arabia's pledge has led analysts to rethink their projections for crude's price recovery. Citigroup Inc boosted its price forecasts on Friday, saying the kingdom's actions should accelerate stockpile draws.
Meanwhile, annual commodity index rebalancing may provide another tailwind, with as much as $9 billion of oil contracts possibly being bought over the five days of activity that start Friday, Citigroup said.
Brent for March settlement advanced $1.61 to end the session at $55.99 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose $1.41 to settle at $52.24 a barrel.
Both benchmarks are at the highest since late February.
The kingdom's shock move has rippled across the oil market this week, with the difference between the price of oil for different months firming markedly in recent sessions. WTI's nearest contract traded at a premium to the following month for the first time since May, while the closely watched spread between the nearest two December contracts is at its strongest intraday level since last January.
Companies: FO PRP 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
• PetroTal is launching a bond issue to raise US$100 mm. This would allow the firm to accelerate drilling and development activities at Bretana (~US$40 mm), put in place a hedging programme and allow the firm to consider regional acquisitions.
• Some of the proceeds of the bond issue will be used to repay the US$16.6 mm derivative liabilities to Petroperu that was formalized in November. However, with the recent upwards shift of the forward curve, the potential derivative liabilities is now an asset and Petroperu is expected to owe PetroTal ~US$8 mm. Under the current forward curve, PetroTal should therefore now receive a total of ~US$25 mm (=US$16.6 mm + US$8 mm) from Petroperu from the settled oil profits during 1Q21.
• Assuming the extra funding is put in place, we are increasing our capex programme for 2021 from US$40 mm to US$90 mm. We are also increasing our production forecast for 2021 from ~11 mbbl/d to ~15 mbbl/d that we maintain broadly flat in 2023 as we assume PetroTal will drill additional wells before starting to decline from 2024. We note that the 3P case only assumes five additional wells (~US$70 mm) compared to the 2P case.
• Current production has now increased from 9.5 mbbl/d last week to 10 mbbl/d.
• PetroTal has now also signed an agreement for a second pilot shipment through Brazil in February 2021, of up to 220,000 barrels of oil.
Positive impact on cash flow and NAV
With more production, we are now forecasting operating cashflow of ~US$170 mm in 2022 and ~US$155 mm in 2023. We are also increasing our Core NAV from £0.43 per share to £0.52 per share. The additional funding would also allow the company to drill exploration wells such as the 70 mmbbl Constitucion prospect (£0.40 per share Unrisked).
We are increasing our target price from £0.45 per share to £0.50 per share in line with our new Core NAV. Our target price represents over 3x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) is our top pick for exposure to copper and following the recent operational and financial normalisation the shares have jumped, up 16% since our last note. Our copper price forecast assumptions implied that during Q4 2020 the price, at that point up 47% from March lows would pause. This has not come to pass, now up 60% to eight year highs of US$7,688/t, indicating a higher starting point in 2021F and we have upgraded our forecasts accordingly.