Wheaton Precious Metals - Celebrating the Ides of March

Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q4/FY23 results were released after the market close on 14 March, within the context of known metals sales and almost known production. Even so, net earnings were US$2.9m (or 1.8%) better than our prior forecast for the quarter, largely as a result of achieved metals prices that were higher than average market prices. Otherwise, the quarter was characterised by accelerated levels of investment into underlying mineral streams and the announcement of a new, progressive dividend p

Wheaton Precious Metals - Putting WPM onto GMT

On 20 February, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had produced 14,615oz (15.2%) and sold 18,618oz (19.3%) more gold than our prior expectations for Q423, and produced 326koz (7.8%) and sold 530koz (20.0%) more silver. As a result, ahead of Q423/FY23 results scheduled for 14 March, we have increased our EPS forecast for Q423 by 25.3%, to close to the top of the range of market expectations for both the quarter and the full year.

Wheaton Precious Metals - Putting net cash to work

On 15 November, Wheaton Precious Metals acquired three streams from Ivanhoe’s Platreef project in South Africa, BMC Minerals’ Kudz Ze Kayah project in the Yukon and Dalradian’s Curraghinalt project in Northern Ireland. In summary, the streams allow for varying purchases of precious metals by Wheaton at varying prices and we calculate that the trio will add an initial c 26.3koz of gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) to WPM’s production profile from FY25, rising to c 35.4koz GEOs when all three are in p

Wheaton Precious Metals - Teeing up to hit long-term targets

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q323 profits exceeded our prior forecasts by US$4.0m (or 3.4%) at the pre-tax level and by US$4.2m (or 3.6%) at the post-tax level, driven by very strong production performances at Salobo and Constancia in particular. Production during the quarter amounted to 154,800oz gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) compared to our prior estimate of 151,919oz, as a consequence of which our FY23 production forecast remains within the company’s 600–660koz GEO guidance range, while o

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices fall in Fed inflation focus

Wheaton Precious Metals - Honing Q323 numbers

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q323 results are scheduled for 9 November. This note adjusts our forecasts – principally for Q3 – for metals prices ( 0.3% simple average for the quarter since our last note), Penasquito (returning to production from mid October, rather than end August), a new life of mine production profile at Constancia (in the aftermath of a site visit in late September) and production at Salobo, Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay (in the aftermath of Vale’s production and sales report

Wheaton Precious Metals - Peerless

Wheaton’s Q223 results exceeded our expectations. Production of gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) was 4.6% higher than our prior forecasts, while sales of GEOs were 6.9% higher, driving a positive variance in revenue of 6.6%, or US$16.4m. This was partially offset by costs but nevertheless resulted in a US$7.8m (or 5.4%) positive variance in earnings from operations that, to all intents and purposes, dropped through to the bottom line.

SP Angel Morning View:Gold prices hold lower as US Treasuries weaken despite softer inflation

Wheaton Precious Metals - Honing Q223 forecasts

Ahead of Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q223 results, scheduled for 10 August, we have honed our forecasts to reflect, principally (1) Newmont’s suspension of mining at Penasquito since 8 June, (2) updated metals prices, (3) estimated production from Salobo in the light of Vale’s Q223 production and sales report (released on 18 July) and (4) the closure of the Minto mine on 13 May. As a result, we have reduced our Q223 basic EPS forecast by 5 US cents per share to 28 cents per share and our FY

Wheaton Precious Metals - Q123 in line; looking to H2

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) net earnings for Q123 were US$2.6m (or 2.5%) better than our forecast. In general, production of precious metals was slightly higher than our expectations, but sales, costs and depletion were in line. Our forecasts for FY23 have therefore remained substantially unchanged. However, we note that the broader market appears to be reticent in incorporating higher precious metals prices into its earnings estimates.

Wheaton Precious Metals - Refining forecasts

Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q123 results are scheduled for 4 May. Ahead of their release, we have refined our forecasts to reflect, principally, a hiatus in mining the high-grade Pampacancha pit at Constancia, owing to regional road blockades (announced by Hudbay, on 30 March) and the suspension of production from the lower levels of the Stillwater West mine by Sibanye-Stillwater for around four weeks, following damage to shaft infrastructure during non-routine maintenance (announced on 13 March). We have

NextSource Materials - Initiation

NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat

Falcon Oil & Gas - Funding a Multi TCF Resource

Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost

Initiation of Coverage - Critical raw materials for Europe’s green transition

Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten

Morning Note – 22 April 2024

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Constrained test rate of 14 mboe/d at Mopane-1X. 10+ bn boe in place confirmed.

• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 44p) - Closing of expanded bank facilities

LIBERUM: Ferrexpo: Production triples

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hit $9,700/t as China smelts concentrates for zero charge Tc/Rc

Jubilee Metals - Operational Update Q3 FY2024

Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August

Transition to Mining Operator

Adriatic Metals has announced their transition from mining contractor to mining operator at Rupice. The transition is expected to continue to benefit the development and productivity rates being achieved at Rupice mine, as well as result in cost efficiencies and improved HSE standards. The company has also announced a short-term loan facility with Orion of $25m, that is drawable at the option of the company in Q3/4 this year.

Alien Metals - Hancock Project, Mining Lease Granted

Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada royalty assets sale

I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward

Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG LN) - Share price fall creates opportunity

Since November, the JOG share price has moderated from a high of 250p to current levels of 149.5p. This is despite JOG having now made significant progress towards FID on its c.70mmboe Buchan project, with FID upcoming later this year. In our view this share price move is unjustified, with current levels further enhancing the value on offer, and making an attractive opportunity for investors.

Trinity Exploration and Production - Reserves Reduction but Solid Core Business

Trinity has announced a c28% reduction to its 2P reserves following a YE23 review. Despite the decrease in the Company’s 2P reserves, Trinity’s core business remains robust, with a reserves/production ratio of >12.5 years at YE23. Whilst there is significant potential for growth within the current portfolio, this will be difficult to unlock from the current balance sheet and we believe further financing will be required. We update our target price to 76p (from 202p), a c85% premium to the curren

Clean Power Hydrogen - New customers and licensees circling…

CPH2 has released FY23 results with the company completing the period with a slightly lower cash outflow from operations and a higher cash balance than forecast. Looking ahead, with a new and improved technical and engineering team, the company has committed to completing Factory Acceptance Testing of its first MW scale electrolyser, the 0.5MW MFE110, within the next three months. In our view, this will be a major milestone for the company which will demonstrate that its unique technology can be