Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

HY results - strong growth continues

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 06/07/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: LifeSafe Holdings (LIFS.L) joins AIM. The fire safety technology business with innovative fire safety products, has developed what the Directors believe to be market disrupting, eco-friendly fire safety protection products to both protect (via fire extinguishers) and detect (via carbon monoxide, smoke and heat alarms) fires. The Company raised £3m on Admission. Market Cap approximately £16.6m. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Immediate acquis

Post results review | Risk aversion dominates

Investors have been choosing to take a more risk-averse position here until prospects for the UK consumer and AO’s German operation become clearer

Initial Reaction

After a year of difficult macro and weaker than initially expected performance AO responded by reorganising management behind founder John Roberts. Today the company is effectively reporting on what was delivered under its now-replaced strategy. News on current work is more general. But we would expect more meaningful analysis from the company and some news on how it expects to be set up over the next few years at the Interims in November.

Re-energising

We have met returned CEO (founder) John Roberts. Our overall view is that he is motivated to re-energise the business over so long as it takes and to protect the value of his investment. He is clearly a top sales person so some context will be needed at the Prelims and probably more meaningfully the 2019/20 Interims in November. But overall we came away positive.

Lots of newness, difficult core market

AO’s CMD highlighted the enthusiasm of the company anew and focused on the batch of new business areas under development. These included significantly a potential new Consumer Credit offer and more visibility on the already announced B2B division. On the more cautious side the current UK Major Domestic Appliances (MDA) market remains difficult in demand terms (down around 5% in 2Q as per GFK), albeit mitigated by a more benign pricing environment. The company’s upbeat view that recent flat-linin

The In-Betweeners

AO World (AO) is the leading online retailer of domestic appliances in the UK and additionally has a significant non-UK operation in Germany and the Netherlands. Our initiation today examines its scaling-upstrategies and its potential to re-rate. We conclude that scaling potential is already being demonstrated outside the UK where we believe the ultimate value lies while the UK needs to show how it can grow its core MDA sales to counter recent signs of maturity. We initiate with a buy recommenda

UK late period slowdown, Europe on-track

This update will probably be viewed with short term caution as UK sales growth has slowed in June and the benefit from the World Cup comes into question. Europe looks good to us and that is where the upside from future scalability will emanate to drive re-rating if that happens. Sales in 1Q were +8% in the UK and +46% ex currency in Europe. There may be a negative read-across into Dixons Carphone (DC LN, 182p, Hold, TP 185p).

Small Cap Breakfast

CentralNic-Schedule 1 from the business operating in proprietary retail platforms selling domain names and associated web presence services including hosting and email on a subscription basis, has acquired KeyDrive S.A which constitutes a RTO. Raising £24m at 52p, combined market cap of £88.7m Trackwise—established business that manufactures specialist products using printed circuit technology. Offer TBA. Due Late July Ovoca Gold (to be renamed Ovoca Bio PLC) - RTO of IVIX, a Russian company d

Some nuance, nothing material

AO World (AO.LN, 151p, NR) has reported in line with its post close update issued on 6th April (underlying EBITDA losses £3.4m against £4.2m loss at that time).There is no formal guidance for 2018/19 but the company notes a good start to trade with UK sales up double digits year to date (v +6.2% 1Q last year). Lots of moving parts in this one notably the progress of the European loss making business but the statement does not suggest any big change to expectation which currently indicates a move

Alphawave Semi: FY23 trading update, amended forward guidance

Alphawave Semi has reduced guidance for FY23 and prospectively citing lower revenues from China, changes in expected revenue recognition from long-term contracts, and continuing investment in R&D. The share price has reacted negatively, giving up most of the gains since the trading statement at the end of January. Current consensus, which is a good match for pre-existing guidance, should be reduced, most likely following release of the FY23 results and full 1Q24 trading update due on 23 April. H

Audioboom Group - Q1 24 revenue growth of +11%, FY24E forecasts reiterated

Audioboom’s FY23 results and Q1 trading update show Q1 24 revenue growth of +11% yoy, $6.7m of March 2024 revenue marking the platform’s highest revenue month since May 2022, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E forecasts. Following the focus on new initiatives through FY23, the platform is now in its strongest ever operational position, with a record 1.1bn monthly ad impressions created in March 2024, record global audience reach of 38.6m unique global listeners in Janua

Crimson Tide - FY23 reports +15% revenue; investment phase complete

Crimson Tide has reported FY23 results to December in line with expectations, with additional operating leverage benefitting updated FY24 and maiden FY25 and FY26 forecasts. FY23 delivered +15% revenue growth to £6.2m at 86% GM, of which over 90% is recurring, and maintained £5.8m ARR even after unexpected customer churn in the year as we previously noted. Crucially, the Group achieved milestone adj EBITDA profitability of £0.4m at 7% EBITDA margin, and edges closer to adj PBT profitability expe

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Devolver Digital (DEVO LN) - Rebuild year

Devolver Digital encouragingly delivered 2023 results slightly ahead of expectations and provided a steady medium-term outlook that leads us to reiterate our 2024 Adjusted EBITDA estimates. Longer term, the company is now planning to further develop its two major planned titles, Human Fall Flat 2 and System Era's next major new release. We now expect those major titles to be released in 2026 rather than 2025, meaning we lower our 2025 Adjusted EBITDA forecast to $10.6m from $17.6m but introduce

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

Intelligent Ultrasound Group - GE Healthcare launches new Voluson Signature with

GE Healthcare has announced the launch of the Voluson Signature 20 and 18 ultrasound systems, with the related press release noting these systems ‘comprehensively integrate artificial intelligence’ to improve the ultrasound procedure for clinicians and the women being scanned. These ultrasound systems include SonoLyst, the AI which incorporates Intelligent Ultrasound’s ScanNav Assist and ScanNav AutoCapture AI software. The launch of additional Voluson systems including the SonoLyst suite of AI

Checkit - New product launch and contract wins

Checkit has won contracts with two customers worth at least £417k over the three-year lives of the contracts, confirming its ability to upsell to its existing customer base and supporting our forecasts. Having trialled the new technology with multiple customers, Checkit has launched its Asset Intelligence module, which uses advanced analytics and machine learning to enhance customer sustainability, reduce costs and increase revenue.

Soft growth patch

Auction Technology Group - H1/24 Trading update

ATG’s H1/24 trading statement indicates revenue for the six-month period to 31 March 2024 was $86m, a 6% increase on H1/23 (1% organic growth), helped by the addition of the EstateSales.Net (ESN) marketplace last year, which performed well in the period. Total marketplace revenue increased 2% (organic), driven by growth in value-added services (VAS) and event fees, offsetting a decline in commission revenue (mainly through lower asset prices).

Morning Note – 17 April 2024

Touchstar - Full year results: Recurring revenue strategy delivers further profit growth

Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning's full year results reflect the outcome of a multi-year strategy coming to fruition for the group, with recurring revenue growth of 8.7% delivering overall revenue growth of 7.1% and in turn a 60% increase in PBT to £0.7m. Over the past few years, Touchstar has focused on enhancing the returns from their product offering through a shift towards recurring software licen

It’s not what you sell, it’s the way that you sell it

This report is intended to help UK small- and mid-cap investors gain a better understanding of software companies’ routes to market, and to highlight how one of the most important facets of the way in which they grow and deliver value is routinely ignored.  We examine sales processes for six UK-listed companies and one that has recently been taken over, and consider why they have followed their respective paths.

LIBERUM: Cirata plc: Cirata from the flames

Engage XR Holdings - Expanding from FY23, FY24E forecasts reiterated

ENGAGE XR’s FY23 results show revenue and net cash in line with the February trading update, EBITDA ahead at -€4.0m vs -€4.5m due to the split of cash outflow between opex and working capital, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E forecasts. FY23 revenue for the core ENGAGE platform was unchanged vs FY22 at €3.3m, as H2 23 revenue was impacted by the record seven-figure contract announced in February shifting to 2024, and several enterprise customers scaling back renewals