Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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With the full year numbers confirmed, we focus on the diversity of the earnings stream and by adopting a sum-of-the-parts methodology to reflect their different characteristics we determine a fair value of 250p. This is substantially ahead of the current share price. With clients requiring ‘connected office’ software, RedstoneConnect is now generating sustainable revenues from a wide client base and from numerous sources e.g. SaaS, licence fees, consultancy, one-off and recurring contracts. At 250p, the FY19 PE rating is 19x. This is not demanding for a company which has developed cutting edge software, can boast of a blue-chip client base, is expected to post a 3yr CAGR (2017 – 2020E) for adjusted PBT of 48% and enjoys a net cash position. We maintain our buy.
Hydrominer GmbH, An Austrian cryptocurrency miner, is considering an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange AIM during 2018 according to an article on Bloomberg. Block Energy—a NEX Listed UK based oil exploration and production company whose main country of operation is the Republic of Georgia, looks to join AIM end of February 2018. Offer TBC OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m.
Companies: GTC BRY ERGO HAYD QXT INFA REDS MYSL ACSO SRC
We have left our full year adjusted PBT forecast for RedstoneConnect (Redstone), unchanged at £2.2m but have lowered our net cash forecast from £4.8m to £2.5m due to increased working capital commitments. As such, earnings will be second half weighted given Redstone reported adjusted PBT of £0.493m at the interims. Our confidence in the full year estimate is based upon the timing of profit recognition on long term contracts and the acceleration in contract wins since the interims. We continue to forecast a 3yr CAGR in the adjusted PBT of 49%, with the EBIT margin rising from 3% in FY17 to 7.5% by FY20. With Redstone trading on a PE rating of 11.7x and 9x for FY18 and FY19, we maintain our BUY recommendation and 250p price target.
Alpha Financial Markets Consulting— Global provider of specialist consultancy services to the asset and wealth management industry. Due Oct. Revenue of £6.7 million for the year ended 31 March 2011 to £43.6 million for the year ended 31 March 2017 . Offer TBA. Due 11 Oct. Cora Gold— West African focused gold exploration business, significantly enlarged by the amalgamation of the gold exploration assets in Mali and Senegal of Hummingbird Resources and Cora Gold's former parent, Kola Gold. Due 9 Oct. Offer TBA City of London Group (COLG) - Sch 1—RTO of Milton Homes Limited, an equity release provider which has a UK residential property portfolio of 586 properties with a market value of approximately £77 million as at 30 June 2017. Offer TBA. Due 5 Oct Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. Intention to float. Offer TBA “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c. £50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. Curzon Energy—Intention to float from the energy Company pursuing a targeted acquisition strategy. Raising £2.3m Gross. First acquisition is 100% of Coos Bay Energy LLC, owner and operator of c. 45,370 acres of coalbed methane leases, targeting first gas by the end of 2017. Price TBA. People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance. ContourGlobal LP—Report on Bloomberg that the thermal energy power generator is considering a London listing.
Companies: ITM NGR NIPT TERN THRU BLU REDS
RedstoneConnect (Redstone) has released an in-line trading statement for the six months ending July 2017 and remains confident for the full year based upon the pipeline of work, order book and the successful integration of Anders + Kern. While the trading will be second half weighted, we are leaving our forecasts unchanged and expect a full year adjusted PBT of £2.2m representing growth of 78% and for Redstone to report a net cash position of £4.8m by January 2018. Trading on a PE rating of 13x and 9x for the years ending January 2018 and 2019 our price target remains at 250p and we reiterate our buy recommendation.
Warehouse REIT - The Company will invest in a diversified portfolio of UK warehouse assets located in urban areas. The Company is targeting a dividend yield of 5.5p equivalent to a yield of 5.5 percent. for the year ending 31 March 2019. Issue price 100p. Offer TBA. Due 20 Sep | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c. £50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. | People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance. | Charter Court Financial Services Group—Intention to float. Specialist lender serving the UK residential mortgage market. The net mortgage loan book stood at £4.4 billion as at 30 June 2017 growing at a compound annual growth rate of 92 percent since 31 December 2014. Part vendor sale and £20m primary raise. | ContourGlobal LP—Report on Bloomberg that the thermal energy power generator is considering a London listing. | Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment Company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Offer raising £200m at 100p. The Company has decided to extend the closing date for the Placing, Offer for Subscription and Intermediaries Offer to 1 August 2017. The Company may bring forward this closing date at any time. Admission 15 September 2017
Companies: EME PLMO UKOG HZD STAR PXOG EVE SEE NAH REDS
Touchstone Exploration— Oil exploration and production company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90,000 gross acres. Production c. 1,300 boepd. Raising £1.45m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m. Due 26 June. | I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. | Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in Early June | Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. | DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. | Film Finances—Sky News reports that ‘movie financing company with credits including the Hollywood hits La La Land and Nocturnal Animals is plotting a blockbuster premiere on the London stock market that will value it at several hundred million pounds.’ Expected ‘during the summer’. | AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank . The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Prospectus and announcement of the price range due in mid-June 2017. | Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. | NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. | Flying Brands (FBDU.L)—Prospectus approved by FCA. RTO of Stone Checker Software, supplier of technology solutions in the field of kidney stone analysis and prevention. Has raised £550k at 3p. Subject to GM on 15 Jun. | AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe
Companies: EAH ACP BKY PHE OSI 7DIG AGL REDS
I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas Company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 26 May admission. | Opera Investments –Reverse Takeover of Kibo Mining’s subsidiary Kibo Gold. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt Cap £6.5m. 23 May. | Eve Sleep—Schedule 1 from the e-commerce focused, direct to consumer European sleep brand. Raising £35m at £1.01. Expected mkt cap £140m. Expected 18 May 2017. | Velocity Composites—Schedule 1. Manufactures advanced carbon fibre and ancillary material kits (predominantly carbon fibre) for use in the production of aircraft. 18 May 2017 admission expected. Raising £14.4m at 85p. Expected mkt cap £30.4m. | Verditek—Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late May. | AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property | Alfa Financial Software –Intention to float. Mission-critical software platform purpose-built for asset finance enterprises. Vendor sale of 25% plus. FYDec16 rev £73.3m (CAGR of 24% from 2012). Adjusted EBIT £32.8m. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe | ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017. | Tufton Oceanic Assets– Extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable further due diligence. | PRS REIT—Private rental sector REIT raising up to £250m. Admission due 31 May.
Companies: LND NASA ATQT CNS INL SOU ALT PURE WRES REDS
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RedstoneConnect (Redstone) has acquired Anders & Kern for £1.4m and raised further funds to accelerate the development and market penetration of OneSpace. It has raised £6.5m at 1.5p, a 3% discount to the price on 8th May. We are leaving our FY18 PBT unchanged at £2.2m, but have increased our FY19 PBT forecast by 19% to £3.6m. For FY20 we expect a PBT of £4.1m implying a 3yr (2020-2017) CAGR for PBT of 49%. Moreover, we calculate the acquisition creates shareholder value with a ROCE of 30%. We increase our price target from 2.2p to 2.5p and maintain our buy recommendation with Redstone now trading on a PE rating of 16x and 12x for the year’s ending January 2018 and 2019.
REDS has agreed to acquire Easter Road Holdings and its subsidiary Anders + Kern for £1.4m
Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs) raised £542m in the 2016-17 tax year, which is the second-highest amount in a single year. Specialist AIM VCTs had particularly successful fundraising efforts, with some closing their offers well before the end of the tax year, so this is good news for AIM companies seeking investment. Unicorn AIM VCT had already raised the £15m it was seeking by early February. The cash raised was 18% higher than the £458m raised in the 2015-16 tax year. Restrictions on pension investment have led investors to seek other ways to invest for the longer term. The highest amount raised in one tax year was in 2005-06, when £779m was raised but the income tax relief rate was 40%, rather than 30% as it is currently. There are £3.9bn of VCT assets under management. There are other new sources of finance for smaller companies. Downing Strategic Micro-Cap Investment Trust raised £54.5m after expenses. This is not a VCT but it is another potential investor for small companies with a market value of less than £150m. Many of these will be too large to be qualifying investments for VCTs. Downing is likely to take significant stakes because it is aiming to have a portfolio of between 12 and 18 investments.
Companies: NASA RFX MTFB EPWN FISH REDS
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Prelims for the year to January 2017 are in-line but more importantly they confirm the restructuring process is now complete, prove the commerciality of its cloud based platform and demonstrate a move towards higher margin services. PBT was £1.2m (against a loss last year), adjusted EBITDA grew 56% to £2m and cash from operations turned positive at £0.9m allowing a net cash position to be maintained. For this year, we expect PBT growth of 77% to £2.2m (previously £2.5m), implying a current PE rating of 15x. We reiterate our buy recommendation with a 2.2p price target as the turn around generated by Redstone has yet to be reflected in the share price.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Redstoneconnect. We currently have 27 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
IQE has released its results for the year to December ’17. While the results themselves are strong, these were largely flagged at the trading update in December, and we see the FY’18 and FY’19 outlook as more important for the share price from here. The group expects continued growth in wafer sales, driven by both the expansion of existing business and qualifications of new business streams. Given the group’s strong operational gearing, we expect this to lead to a steady expansion in group margins. The group has given explicit forward guidance for the first time, which is in-line with our FY’18 revenue and EBIT forecasts, although a higher non-cash tax charge is likely to lead to EPS downgrades. With further high growth expected in FY’18 and the potential for more strong growth in FY’19 and beyond, we retain our positive stance.
CALL’s solid FY’17 results continue to underpin our conviction. Growth continues at pace in all regions assisted by rising internal efficiency while the outlook statement points to management confidence, good momentum on product development and support from regulatory trends. While we have cut our FY’18E numbers on accelerated investment in growth (and FY19-20E on lower R&D credits – see detail inside), we view management’s FY19E aspiration of ~break-even and cash trough as intact, with tangible upside risk from further M&A by Bullhorn and improving ARPU from new products launches in the mid-term. We reiterate our Buy rating and retain our PT of 300p.
Companies: Cloudcall Group
As the quarter ends and Easter approaches, the results marathon is set to pause. As highlighted previously, the vast majority of results have been as anticipated, with some notable exceptions. The state of the UK economy is improving according to the Chancellor. The MPC meeting on Thursday is likely to leave interest rates unchanged but an increase in May seems likely, even though inflation is set to fall over the next 12 months. We have continued to see significant M&A activity. In Share News & Views, we comment on Braemar Shipping*, Burford, CLS, ECSC*, FDM*, GetBusy* and XLMedia.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR EUSP FDM GETB PCF SNX SPRP TCN W7L
accesso has released full year results in line with the indications given in the 25 January trading update, which highlighted a small revenue beat and an adjusted EBITDA performance substantially ahead of expectations. Full year revenue increased 30% to $133.4m, delivering adjusted EBITDA up 29% to $24.6m – 8% ahead of our estimate. While the group result was ahead of expectations, we suspect that the positive impact of strong Ticketing volumes was offset by lower than expected Queuing revenues. Both acquisitions made positive contributions, with an impressive early performance from TE2 highlighting the attractions of its personalisation capabilities to multiple verticals. We need to review our forecasts and target price in detail, but anticipate putting through a 5-10% upgrade to our revenue and earnings estimates.
Companies: Accesso Technology Group
Sopheon has delivered a very strong 2017 – in line with the previous trading updates, and benefiting from a very good end to the year. The group is ahead of our estimates on all metrics, and is well placed going into 2018 and beyond. Management have signalled their confidence with the welcome introduction of a maiden dividend (2.5p). We upgrade our estimates for both 2018 and 2019.
Strong momentum continues, with a checklist of positive catalysts into FY18 and FY19: repeat outperformance; reinstated forecasts, having been upgraded since being suspended at the time of the trading update in December; product excellence leading to global large enterprise adoption; regular product updates and functionality improvements to keep existing customers enthused and potential customers even more interested; a focus on distribution partners to further boost sales; and the financial strength and confidence in balance sheet to accelerate inward investment – while also instating a maiden dividend, showing a commitment to cash management, shareholder returns, and the broadening the potential investor base. Having delivered 23% organic revenue growth, and 53% EBITDA growth, management has taken the decision to invest for growth, accelerating the expansion of sales and marketing and R&D in order to create the platform to deliver accelerating growth. The stars are aligned and visibility is at record levels, with 62% of FY18 revenue (FY17: 51%) already contracted: we lift our 12-month target to 1000p (620p), Sopheon having shown the evolved maturity to merit a fuller enterprise software multiple of a target 17x FY18 EBITDA.
GetBusy’s maiden results published today were robust, coming in ahead of our forecast at both the revenue and pre-tax level; despite the impact of IFRS 15. Recurring revenue increased to 86% of revenue (83% in 2016) and the number of paying users increased to 57,000 (+11% YoY). Non-UK business, which accounted for a mere 6% of group revenue in 2015, increased to 45% in 2017. We have updated our forecasts for GetBusy and upgraded our Target Price to 48p/ share, +17% higher than our prior 41p TP. We reiterate our Buy rating.
IQE is a leading global supplier of advanced semiconductor wafers that are used in various applications ranging from mobile communications to industrial power. The company boasts a diversified global customer base and a unique IP portfolio with over 150 patents that enables the firm to provide a unique service to its customers. Headquartered in Cardiff, Wales, IQE shares were often misunderstood or underappreciated by investors in the past. However, as the company continued to deliver healthy growth winning volume contracts for new technologies (e.g. VCSEL), the share price nearly tripled in 2017 and the company successfully placed new shares raising £95m in November. Recent reports published by funds with short positions questioning IQE’s accounting with regard to profit and cash flow contribution from its joint ventures sent the stock price down by 45% from its November high. That said, the company rejected the allegation with the statement saying that the information in the short sellers report is “either factually inaccurate or has previously been disclosed in IQE’s annual reports and financial statements”. The company also appointed KPMG as a new auditor replacing PwC as of 12th February saying “the company holds itself to the highest standards of transparency, governance and integrity”. We find the management responses were timely and expect the share price to be stabilised going forward.
WANdisco’s co-sell agreement with Microsoft is possibly the company’s most important partnership to date, strengthening the company’s already enviable platform to capitalise on the rapid growth in cloud and hybrid cloud computing. Agreements with IBM, Alibaba, Dell/Virtustream and now Microsoft give a clear indication of the capability and uniqueness of Fusion. Near- and long-term prospects are reinforced as is the potential for WANdisco to grow into and exceed the current rating.
The phenomenal take-up of cloud services is turning the IT industry on its head. Here corporate networks and in-house data centres are being replaced by third-party hosted (eg Amazon, Google and Microsoft) services, streamed from almost anywhere on the planet.
Companies: Blancco Technology Group
In today’s more detailed trading update, Sopheon has confirmed its brief statement in early January that revenue and profit for FY 2017E will exceed market expectations. As well as providing an anticipated revenue figure above U$28 million, it states that both EBITDA and pretax profits will be ‘significantly ahead of current market expectations.’ Today’s update notes that volume of transactions increased with a greater number of license deals and new SaaS customers – and Q4 contained two substantial deals. Sopheon ended 2017 with net cash of U$9.5 million. The group has a higher recurring revenue base and greater revenue visibility overall. We adjust FY 2017E numbers to reflect the guidance given today, driving a 31% increase in our Adjusted EBITDA estimate to U$6.9 million. We also adjust estimates for December’s conversion of loan stock and that is the only influence on our estimates for subsequent years where we retain a conservative stance and note future investment in the Accolade platform. We will look to revisit those estimates when further detail is available at the time of the results announcement.
In the March 2018 edition of the Hardman Monthly Newsletter, Nigel Hawkins addresses the attractions of quoted infrastructure funds that maintain a low profile.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL MCL MUR NSF OBT OXB PPH NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
Pharmaceutical Services is a vast and varied landscape, reflecting the complexities in the discovery, development, manufacturing and monitoring of drugs and devices, all within a stringent regulatory environment. The overall growth prospects are highly favourable: drug development activity globally is on the up, led by smaller companies, which is driving demand for outsourced services. In this report we provide a breakdown of the sector into its main activity segments, and identify biologics, increasing service specialisation and consolidation as important value drivers. Finally, we present 15 companies (9 of which are publicly listed) that, in our view, are well placed to benefit from the sector’s secular growth trends.
Companies: ABZA BQE CSRT OXB INS UDG CLIN ABZA HZD ERGO
Bango has announced FY17A results ahead of our forecasts, with financial performance once again demonstrating strong growth and platform scalability. Momentum remained strong during the year, with End User Spend (EUS) confirmed as having more than doubled but opex having grown by just 13%. The positive outlook statement will give confidence in the near-term financial performance. Our FY18E adjusted earnings estimates are unchanged following the release and FY19E forecasts are introduced for the first time.
StatPro has reported FY 2017 revenues and Adjusted EBITDA in line with expectations reflecting solid growth from Revolution and a positive EBITDA contribution from Delta. Reported revenue increased by 26% at constant currency rates (CCR), adjusted EBITDA was up 24% while adjusted EPS grew by 74%. The dividend is maintained at 2.9p. Group Annualised Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased by 35% to £53.04 million. The acquisition of UBS Delta in April 2017 was a key feature of the year and its integration into Revolution continues. The announcement flags a restructuring of the business in 2019 into three divisions to allow management focus on the specific growth opportunities in the business lines. CEO Justin Wheatley says that StatPro ended 2017 strongly and that the Group expects to see further organic revenue and profit growth in 2018. StatPro has started the current financial year in line with management expectations. We make minor adjustments to our FY 2018E estimates and introduce FY 2019E numbers.
Companies: Statpro Group