Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Rosslyn Data Technologies. We currently have 9 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
"Friends and neighbours. Having drawn swords with Mexico regarding The Wall, the White House appears to have concluded the most obvious way to ensure they do finally end up paying for its construction, is to simply impose punitive import taxes on their US-bound goods and services. Meanwhile, having failed to appoint a Commerce Secretary, Donald Trump has declared that today he will personally discuss the framework for a post-Brexit trade deal with Theresa May when they meet this afternoon. The devil, of course, will always be in the detail, but nevertheless, these talks are much more important for the UK (whose exports, valued at US$125bn, representing 17% of its international trade) than it is for the US (who send just US$65bn back across the Atlantic, representing less than 0.5% of their GDP). So the Prime Minister will need to tread lightly when raising the point she has already made to an assembly of House and Senate Republicans, that neither of their countries can afford to forget their responsibility in shaping world affairs, such as helping to defeating the ideology that drives Islamic extremism. The Dow Jones gleaned enough confidence from the President's continuing actions to ensure a third straight daily rise, keeping it firmly above the 20,000 marker, although the NASDAQ and S&P-500 but closed with fractional losses. The start of the extended Chinese New Year holidays meant that the Shanghai Composite was closed and a good number of the region's other bourses had shortened sessions, resulting in particularly low Asian volumes. That said, the Nikkei still found cause to celebrate a slower than expected decline in its consumer prices, suggesting its battle against deflation may finally be bearing fruit, with a modest gain, although the ASX notched up the territory's strongest performance. Europe had been hoping that Greece's talks with its creditors that took place yesterday would result in a breaking of the bailout deadlock; in the end no conclusion was reached, unfortunately deferring discussion regarding their aid package to another session which finance ministers insist should be concluded before the elections in the Netherlands and France get underway. No significant macro data is expected from the UK today although the EU will provide M3 and Private Loans figures, before the US releases another heavy batch of statistics, including Q4 GDP, Personal Consumption, Durable Goods Orders and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Investors in London will also be anticipating Moody's scheduled report on the UK's Sovereign Debt Rating today, which is likely to leave the equity market opening this morning rather lacklustre, with the FTSE-100 seen rising some 20 or so points in early trade."
Companies: AGL RDT SKY ULVR
"European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, speaking yesterday afternoon at a Parliament Committee in Brussels, warned of the dangers that ultra-low interest rates pose for the Eurozone. While the ECB decides whether to hold rates lower-for-longer his focus on the results of such prolonged low rates, in terms of excessive build-up of debt, longer-term risk-taking and vulnerability to excessive valuations in the region's real estate markets, in fact asks more questions than it answers. They also highlight the dilemma Italian voters face ahead of ahead of Sunday's constitutional referendum; polls presently put the 'No' vote in the lead with 52%, having effectively become a confidence vote on Renzi's premiership itself; if, as promised, he resigns given such an outcome, then chaos could ensue as the door is opened for the anti-capitalist, anti-austerity, Eurosceptic opposition Five Star Movement to win a snap election. With recently passed law, 'Italicum', then potentially granting the Party control of the lower chamber even if it does not win a majority, its threat to launch a further referendum on the Country's membership of the single currency then becomes a very real possibility. So revolution undoubtedly remains in the air and next week investors may see whether the Eurozone itself has now decided to pick up this particular baton. Indeed, such fears even managed to spread to the overnight markets, with US equities giving back most of the previous day's gains, as all three principal indices fell back with financials being hit by broad sell-off. Asia ended more mixed, with the Nikkei being the principal loser as tech and banking stocks came under pressure while other regional bourses closed with just fractional movements on relatively light volume. In the UK, the Bank of England is due to release October mortgage lending data this morning; this closely followed indicator of the health of the housing market, for which the consensus expectation is 65,000 new mortgages, remains a key indicator of consumer confidence and the nation's overall economic wellbeing. Today the Treasury Committee Hearing on Hammond's Autumn Statement is also due, while in the US a second GDP estimate will be released. Numerous earnings or trading statements are also due from UK corporates, including Acal (ACL.L), Countryside (CSP.L), Cranswick (CWK.L), ITE Group (ITE.L), KCOM Group (KCOM.L), LSL Property (LSL.L), Merlin Entertainment (MERL.L), Patisserie Holdings (CAKE.L), Shaftesbury (SHB.L), SSP Group (SSPG.L) and Topps Tiles (TPT.L). A nervous opening in London is expected to see the FTSE-100 move ahead some 5 points in early trading." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Companies: AAU BMN ADN IVO RDT
Warpaint London—Schedule one update. Raising £2.5m at 97p. Expected mkt cap £62.6m vs revenues of £22.3m Walls & Futures REIT — Has raised £1m at £1 to acquire, refurbish or develop residential properties in the UK . Due to arrive on ISDX on 29 November Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
Companies: MTR RDT MKT GROW BLU TRAK KOD IVO TRX AKER
"Monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve and, possibly more importantly, the Bank of Japan, are expected to drive investor sentiment in the global markets this week - two-day policy meetings from both are due to start tomorrow. While expectations for a September Fed hike have abated quite significantly following a series of soft economic releases, growing uncertainty over what the BOJ will do is an increasing source of anxiety for investors. Consensus appears to be for Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to introduce a further minor rate cut of maybe 10 to 20bp, while expanding the monetary base slightly from the current 80tr Yen and adding additional J-REIT purchases. The concept of reducing long-term JGB purchases in favour of shorter-term or riskier assets has also been seen by the media as one way of steepening the yield curve and weakening the Yen, whose strength during 2016 has been principally responsible for undermining progress of this export-led economy. While Janet Yellen is expected to tell journalists she will continue to 'sit on her hands' at the quarterly press conference scheduled to follow the FOMC meeting, market focus will likely rapidly return to the November 8th presidential election. One contributor to the Weekend FT highlighted the chance of a 15% to 20% hit on both the US and UK stock markets and a collapse of the US$ should Trump succeed. Scary stuff, but for many it sounds a bit like a replay of the 'doom and gloom' Brexit-vote forecasts that were delivered from a multitude of economists and economic policymakers three or so months back; nevertheless, this will undoubtedly become the centre of media attention for the next 8 weeks, meaning that the exceptional low market volatility of the summer period has almost certainly now drawn to a close. US equities ended their rather choppy week with all principal indices falling, although continuing support for tech stocks following Intel's unexpected hike of its third-quarter revenue guidance, meant that the NASDAQ was the least damaged. Resuming trading following their Mid-Autumn holiday, both the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng gained as traders took positions ahead of the central bank meetings, while the ASX tracked back slightly mimicking the US with Japan staying closed for its 'Respect of the Aged Day' holiday. No new macro data is due from the UK today, but corporates including Dairy Crest (DCG.L), Finsbury Foods (FIF.L), Petra Diamonds (PDL.L) and Sprue Aegis (SPRP.L) are expected to be released earnings. Traders will also remain sensitive regarding any further disclosures or police statements regarding the Manhattan pipe-bombing that took place in Manhattan over the weekend and particularly any confirmation that it was terrorist-related. The FTSE-100 is seen rising some 60-points in early trading this morning." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Companies: ACA AVN RDT TLW
"The Fed's apparent adoption of a 'wait and see' approach on how and when to proceed with its next interest rate move, effectively reversing previous signals that pointed at a move to higher rates this summer, is today likely to help European equities recover some losses of recent days. The FTSE-100 is seen opening up some 65 points, with the French and German markets rising similarly, while the US dollar may give back some of its exceptional post-Brexit gains ahead of Friday's US Jobs data, which could provide a repeat of last month's gloomy reading. Picking up this mood, US equity indices recovered from a weaker opening to close with modest gains on bargain hunting. Asia was mixed in early morning trade, with the Nikkei giving back early advance as the Yen continued to strengthen while the Shanghai Composite continued to reflect doubts about China's economic wellbeing; Australia's ASX held onto commodity-led gains despite S&P lowering the Country's rating outlook to negative. Macro releases due from the UK this morning include Industrial Production data and the Halifax house price index. Amongst UK corporates, expect Q1 figures from Marks & Spencer, full year numbers from Sports Direct and a trading update from AB Foods." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Companies: CYAN HUM KRS BOK CFHL MRO RDT
"Equities in London are expected to open on a downbeat note, with the FTSE-100 expected to fall initially around 15 points, before testing its technical support at the 6,100 level. After early strength, the US markets gave back gains made on the back of firm oil and energy prices as investors focussed back on a relatively dull earnings season, growing political uncertainty and lacklustre economic data. Recent strength in gold and bond markets serves as a reminder of investor's continuing concerns for the global economy. Key macroeconomic data due today from the US includes the monthly non-farm payroll employment report, which may determine both expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy and sentiment for the coming week. In the UK, markets await this morning's release on the Halifax house price index and AGMs from Alliance Trust, RSA Insurance and Man Group, together with trading statements from BBA Aviation and International Consolidated Airlines." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Companies: ALO BT/A BNZL LSE RDT RSA
The FinTech market is a vast and still largely uncharted ocean of opportunity. Trillions of dollars move around hundreds of countries every day; and that is just between banks, never mind individual customer transactions. The banking systems that facilitate this activity are by and large 30 to 40 years old and have evolved from multiple systems developed in many different countries. The opportunities to improve the systems are equally as vast as the market, though by necessity it will be a process of evolution rather than revolution, as no one company is going to persuade all the banks to change all the systems in one go. There is therefore plenty of market to go for. The first wave of “FinTech” companies has now blazed the trail. Some have succeeded and some have fallen over. Most have had to re-think and re-invent their models many times. In all respects the big prizes are still there, but there is now much more information on how best to access them.
Companies: NLG RDT COMS FDM GAMA PROX FBT WAND ESV MONI
ATTRAQT Group | Forbidden Technologies | Imperial Innovations Group | Macfarlane Group | Manx Telecom | MediaZest | NetScientific | Petards Group | ProMetic Life Sciences | Rame Energy | Restore | Rosslyn Data Technologies | SPARK Ventures
Companies: ATQT BYOT FBT IVO MACF MANX MDZ NSCI PEG PLI RAME RST RDT
The Hybridan Small Cap Wrap is a weekly review of some of the most interesting small cap stories of the past week. Our review will usually be of those companies whose market capitalisations are less than £50m although we may occasionally cover larger companies.
Companies: OPM ACT ATQT EYE ERGO FFX GAL KBT OPTI REDX RDT SAR SPRP XLM
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Rosslyn Data Technologies. We currently have 9 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
|17Oct17 14:08||RNS||Posting of Annual Report|
|27Sep17 16:53||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|15Sep17 08:00||RNS||Grant of Options|
|31Aug17 14:46||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|30Aug17 09:22||RNS||Final Results|
|31Jul17 07:00||RNS||Contract Wins|
|12Jul17 16:03||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
With its exposure to a structural growth market, a highly recurring business model, consistent strong execution, healthy balance sheet and potential new avenues for growth, we believe dotdigital remains a core holding in the sector. It offers investors an attractive compounding growth stock with the potential for accelerated growth as it expands internationally and increasing prospects for M&A. The FY results (19% sales growth, 27% EBITDA growth and 32% EPS growth) showed another year of strong execution, with the H2 growth acceleration particularly pleasing. We remain confident of the group’s prospects.
Companies: Dotdigital Group
Further evidence that the shrewder investor prefers a smaller company, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Professor Thaler, an avowed fan of the smaller brethren. Back down to earth, all markets continue to make headway, with the smaller company indices continuing to lead the way. Despite the apparent deadlock in the Brexit process, life appears to carry on. The MPC meeting on 2 November and the Budget on 22 November may offer greater insight. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent updates from Cropper*, Halstead, Norcros, Tricorn* Walker Greenbank and Wincanton.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PCF PPIX SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
Augean (AUG LN) Board changes and reduction in expectations | First Derivatives (FDP LN) Agreement with European Space Agency | Futura Medical (FUM LN) Market research supports the commercial potential of Eroxon® | Low & Bonar (LWB LN) Civil Engineering struggling | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) Forecast update; profitability inflection and strong growth ahead
Companies: AUG SPH LWB FUM FDP
HomeSend, eServGlobal’s JV with Mastercard and BICS of Belgium, has always represented a very exciting prospect. With the backing of the giant credit-card agency, it stood a good chance of securing a significant share of the US$600bn global remittance market. With a relatively minimal cost base, the transaction volumes from even a tiny share would have delivered US$100m in earnings for eServGlobal’s 35% stake – and Mastercard’s 26% of the global credit-card market suggested a far greater share was possible. Now, after recent announcements, we realise: firstly, that the applicable market size was woefully underestimated; secondly, that its share will not be tiny but significant; and thirdly, that success for HomeSend is becoming a certainty. On the contracts already signed, HomeSend will generate revenue and profits of hundreds of millions of dollars; it is now simply a matter of when its transaction corridors go live and the commission streams ramp up. We understand that that, too, will be faster than thought.
The trading update notes an A$200m pipeline of opportunities; however, prudent resource constraints have forced a slowdown in spending on the Fleet business roll-out with a knock-on impact to this year’s revenue and losses. Since the sale of the Off-Road business to Caterpillar, Fleet is the main revenue-driving division. On the back of this update, we are easing our Fleet - and therefore group - revenue and earnings forecasts for FY 2018 and FY 2019. Nevertheless, Seeing Machines is still demonstrating extremely strong sales growth, issuing guidance that it expects to more than treble revenue this year from A$13m to around A$40m, and then double this again in the year to June 2019 at c.A$80m. By then, OEM Automotive, Rail and Aerospace divisions should all be making strong sales contributions to augment the Fleet division growth.
Companies: Seeing Machines
Flowtech Fluidpower* (FLO): Q3 trading update confirms good organic growth (CORP) | President Energy* (PPC): Puesto Flores – first oil delivery and revenue (CORP) | dotDigital* (DOTD): 2H acceleration: progress on every front (CORP) | Orchard Funding* (ORCH): Insuretech winning (CORP)
Companies: FLO PPC DOTD ORCH
The Company has provided an update for H1. Revenues ($112-114m guidance) are tracking slightly lower than we had been looking for with gross margin higher by 1% point (at 38%) and OPEX lower resulting in EBITDA being not far adrift from our expectation ($1.5m to $2.0m guidance). The Company is guiding to meeting our full year $16m EBITDA expectation, in part because OPEX is expected to continue to be materially lower (US$87m for the full year). In order to meet our forecast the Company will need to still achieve our revenue objective although we flag there is still some scope for OPEX to surprise given the continuing consolidation of the operations and acquisitions. More cash has had to be invested in working capital (an issue in the industry at the moment) and there are some YUME acquisition related expenses (we estimate c$3m) also impacting cash (guidance of $37m rising to $50m at year end). The Company expects some recovery in working capital in H2. The shares have been drifting off during the YUME acquisition process. We expect the shares to recover as the process nears completion (due early 2018) and investors get confirmation the Company is tracking towards the delivery of the critical leap in profitability this year.
Oxford Metrics’ year end trading update highlights another strong period of delivery for the group, with FY’17 revenue and adjusted PBT both expected to be slightly ahead of expectations. Net cash at the year end of £9.8m is also ahead of our £9.4m forecast. FY’17 is the first year of the group’s five-year growth plan and both Vicon and Yotta are beginning to see the benefit of the increased investment in the year. Oxford Metrics continues to provide investors with an attractive mix of IP led, market leading technology and cash generation, with recent investments placing the group on an enhanced growth trajectory. Our Dec’18 SOTP calculation results in an intrinsic value of 72p, with further outperformance potential as the group utilises its strong balance sheet.
Companies: Oxford Metrics
RhythmOne has issued a trading statement for H1 2018. Performance is in line with management expectations and revenues are expected to be $112-114m vs H12017 of $67m. These numbers are not LFL as they include Perk for the half and RadiumOne for a quarter. Gross profit margin was 38% which is up from last year and in line with my FY2018 expectations. The gross margins at Perk and RadiumOne are higher than old R1. Adj EBITDA is expected to be a profit of $1.5m -$2m.
Two new product integrations with Microsoft Azure, together with the recently released Amazon AWS hybrid solution, add up to a meaningful strengthening of WANdisco’s credentials and platform for growth. We see scope for a significant acceleration in operationally geared growth, especially if the company can progress one or two of its tier one relationships into a strategic relationship akin to the one with IBM.
IQE has announced that during the course of a routine US tax filing exercise, unexpected prior year taxes due of c.£4.2m have been discovered. The identified taxes date back to 2013, when the group acquired the epitaxy business of Kopin. As a result of the September ’16 group re-organisation, it is believed that no similar tax liability arises in 2017. Alongside this announcement the group has confirmed that the VCSEL ramp up in Q3 is on track, giving us confidence in our full year forecasts. We do not expect to make any material changes to estimates and remain positive on the stock, with multiple programs expected to drive significant upgrades to our FY’18 estimates and beyond.
While iomart’s share price is roughly where it was in 2013, it has since then doubled revenue and profits through a combination of organic growth and bolt-on acquisitions. Including potential future acquisitions (not in forecasts), we think it should maintain mid-teens growth in revenue and EBITDA consistent with the past few years making the shares attractively priced at 9.4x FY’18 EBITDA. This compares to other UK Technology midcaps at 16.0x on the same expectation of 15% EBITDA growth p.a. We initiate with a buy rating and price target of 430p.
Companies: Iomart Group
Strong results from text book execution derive from delivery of the three strategic routes to growth: more partners, doubling the addressable market; increasing reach of successful operational territories, delivering 48% revenue growth outside the UK; and broader product functionality – leading to +24% spend per customer, from a growing stable of c4,000 active customers. FY17 revenue is in line with expectations, while EBITDA of £10.2m (vs £9.7mE) is 5% ahead; adj EPS is 9% ahead. Cash of £20.4m (£19.3mE) highlights 2H free cash flow of 108% of adjusted PBT, and a balance sheet with options open for further growth – increased investment through opex and capex; a well-covered dividend; and potential M&A to accelerate product development, or enhance organic growth in new territories through acquiring local presence. We lift our 12-month target price to 92p (80p), in line with the Megabuyte accounting and enterprise software peer group.
Companies: Dotdigital Group
Totally (TLY) - Sch 1 for £11m RTO of Vocare, a provider of integrated urgent care services to the NHS throughout the UK. £76.8 million rev in the year ended 31 March 2017. Totally to address Care Quality Commission concerns. Due 24 Oct. Central Asia Metals (CAML) -RTO of Lynx Resources. Anticipated market capitalisation at Admission: £404.8m. Raising £113m at 230p. Acquiring the SASA zinc-lead mine in Macedonia from Solway Industries. Due 15 Dec. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. Orogen plc, to be renamed Sosandar plc on Admission. Sosander is an online womenswear brand specifically targeted at a generation of women who have graduated from younger online and high street brands, and are looking for affordable clothing with a premium, trend-led aesthetic. Offer to raise £5.3m with market cap of £16.1m, expected 2 November 2017 OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected late October .
Companies: PPC BMK HCM IHC KCR DOTD STI TIDE
First Derivatives has announced that Kx has been selected by Scientific Revenue as its real-time analytics platform for dynamic pricing. While this deal has no immediate impact on our estimates, we believe the revenue potential is significant. Moreover, it further highlights the ultra-high performance capabilities of Kx and its attractions to technology leaders addressing analytical challenges in environments characterised by large volumes of fast-moving data. We will revisit our forecasts and target price when interim results are released on 7 November.
Companies: First Derivatives