05 Sep 2025
First Take: Dunelm - Preview FY25 results – 9th September
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First Take: Dunelm - Preview FY25 results – 9th September
Dunelm Group plc (DNLM:LON) | 1,138 -56.9 (-0.4%) | Mkt Cap: 2,294m
- Published:
05 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Few surprises expected in FY25 results, given the comprehensive FY update in July
At its in-line FY update in July, management confirmed that it expected FY25 PBT to be in-line with company-compiled market expectations at that time, for PBT of £210m (range: £207m-£215m) vs INVe £213.5m. FY25 revenues were already reported, up 3.8% to £1,771m, with online penetration up 3pps to 40%, and management guided to the FY gross margin being up 60bps to 52.4%, helped by strong full price sales in Q4 and a small tailwind from FX. We forecast an FY DPS of 44.7p, with a special dividend of 35p already paid out post interims.
Little new expected on strategy ahead of Clodagh Moriarty taking over as CEO on 1st October
With Nick Wilkinson retiring and Clodagh Moriarty taking over as CEO from 1st October, we expect little new in terms of strategy with management continuing to focus on delivering against its ‘3 pillars of growth’: elevating the product offer; connecting with more customers; and harnessing its operational capabilities. We do not expect a change in strategic direction given how successful the current strategy has been in delivering market share and profit growth.
The focus will be on any indication of current trading. Management last commented that demand remained volatile with no sign of a consumer recovery. If anything, the long-expected consumer recovery has been pushed out to next year given recent economic data and intense speculation around the potential for a further increase in the consumer tax burden in the upcoming UK Autumn Budget. That said, this does not mean that Dunelm cannot continue to take market share and grow.
Undemanding valuation
Valuation (CY26E PE c.14.1x) does not reflect the attractive cash generation and longer-term growth opportunities, in our view. Dunelm has a strong market position, good momentum, and continues to take market share in a highly fragmented marketplace.