Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on INCHCAPE PLC. We currently have 15 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
|20Jan17 05:02||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|11Jan17 07:00||RNS||Sponsored Level 1 ADR program admitted for Trading|
|09Jan17 03:25||RNS||Directorate Change|
|22Dec16 07:19||RNS||Strategic Distribution Acquisition in S. America|
|20Dec16 03:42||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|06Dec16 10:27||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|05Dec16 11:49||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
SMMT 2016 data
05 Jan 17
The SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) has released data this morning confirming a record new car market of 2.69m registrations and +2.3% YOY. This is the fifth year in a row of growing new car registrations. Headline December registrations were -1.1% with private registrations -5.5% completing a third quarter in succession of negative growth in this segment. Fleet continues to drive the growth in this market and was +4.8% YOY representing 51.3% of registrations vs. 50.0% last year. The key question is what will happen in 2017 post Brexit with uncertainty levels still high. We maintain our cautious stance and downgraded our EPS forecasts by 8-15% across the sector in November accordingly. That said, we believe the earnings risk has been accounted for in trough valuation multiples based on cautious forecast assumptions (we assume a 10% drop in new car registrations vs. the SMMT at -5%). We continue to favor stocks with flexible balance sheets at this stage of the cycle, and believe stocks such as Vertu and Cambria remain significantly underpinned by their growing property portfolios.
05 Jan 17
Following the acquisition made by Inchcape on 22 December, we have upgraded our forecasts accordingly increasing our 2017 and 2018 EPS numbers by 7%. Our forecast assumptions remain at the low end of the consensus range, largely due to our cautious assumptions for the UK market in 2017 and 2018. However, we the acquisition is a good fit, with UK EBIT expected to fall to just 12% of Group EBIT vs. >20% historically. The valuation looks undemanding in the context of the wider UK retail sector, and we estimate the balance sheet should provide a further £400m of financial firepower post its latest transaction. We therefore believe the long term growth potential of this business remains firmly intact.
Looking into 2017/18
16 Nov 16
Sector sentiment is at a low point with clear uncertainty around 2017/18 earnings. We are attempting to cut through this, and believe the share price falls more than price in the earnings risk. Following a robust September, we would expect a strong 2016 performance, which has been confirmed by all dealers, but do expect conditions to get more difficult from here. We continue to favour stocks with flexible balance sheets at this stage of the cycle.
28 Jul 16
H1 results from Inchcape are 3% ahead of our expectations and consensus at the adjusted PBT level reflecting robust YOY growth at the revenue and operating profit level. Cash generation remains strong and a further £100m share buyback programme has been launched. We would not anticipate significant movement in consensus estimates post results, albeit expectations in North Asia are likely to fall offset by better than expected growth in Australasia. Greater uncertainty is expected in its UK business in H2, but it’s too early to call the longer term impact post Brexit. As ever these results are mixed, but should be largely well received.
07 Jul 16
The sector has come under severe pressure following the Brexit vote with investors clearly pricing in distressed economic scenarios with share prices falling between 15% and 51% across the sector. We believe the dealer groups are better businesses this time around, albeit the uncertainty in the economy is likely to adversely impact both new and used car sales. We would favour those stocks that have been oversold with flexible balance sheets. We see significant long-term upside in Cambria and Vertu as fitting these criteria. We are also becoming more positive on Inchcape as its overseas exposure against a weak Sterling backdrop should give it some protection, backed by a strong balance sheet. We believe that Lookers and Pendragon have also been oversold, but remain nervous on Marshall Motor Holdings following its recent decision to gear up by purchasing Ridgeway.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Retain forecasts for FY17E and FY18E
05 Oct 16
While LFL sales growth of 1.8% for the first 12 weeks of FY17 looked a little light, this was on the back of 2.8% growth in the prior period. H2 comps become easier to lap and Christmas bookings (festive trading comprises 15% of FY sales on average) are up 10% YoY.
EBITDA break-even reached, positive outlook
18 Jan 17
7digital’s FY16 revenues increased 7% y-o-y and EBITDA profitability was reached, as targeted, in Q4. New contract wins in FY16 set the stage for a stronger top-line performance in FY17 and we consider management’s reiterated target of operating profitability in FY17 as realistic. For an operationally geared growth company in its first year of profitability, the FY17e EV/EBITDA of c 12x looks attractive.
A year of expansion
17 Jan 17
Final results are broadly in line with our revised forecasts on most headline levels in what proved to be a difficult year for the Group. That said, it has significantly increased room capacity, which is now +40% ahead at the time of the IPO (+14.5% yoy), which improves its competitive position and offering. We are maintaining our headline forecasts, and with the dividend expected to be held for the foreseeable future producing an 8.7% yield with a NAV in excess of 180p, we continue to believe there is strong long term value offered at present.
Strong H1 17 performance, confident outlook for H2
20 Jan 17
Following on from the positive AGM statement at the end of November, MySale has released an upbeat pre-close trading update. Group revenue increased 6% to A$136.1m, while higher margin online revenue, now representing over 90% of the total group, experienced a strong rate of growth of 18% to A$126.5m. As a result, gross margin showed continued improvement of 270bps driving a 17% uplift in gross profit to A$38.4m (versus A$32.7m). Strong trading for the half, combined with a carefully controlled cost base, led to a doubling in EBITDA to A$3.0m. Management are confident going into the second half period and following the increase in guidance at the end of November, the company remains comfortable with current full year forecasts. More detail and an update on trading will be given at the interims expected on 1st March 2017.