Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on PENDRAGON PLC. We currently have 29 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
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SMMT 2016 data
05 Jan 17
The SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) has released data this morning confirming a record new car market of 2.69m registrations and +2.3% YOY. This is the fifth year in a row of growing new car registrations. Headline December registrations were -1.1% with private registrations -5.5% completing a third quarter in succession of negative growth in this segment. Fleet continues to drive the growth in this market and was +4.8% YOY representing 51.3% of registrations vs. 50.0% last year. The key question is what will happen in 2017 post Brexit with uncertainty levels still high. We maintain our cautious stance and downgraded our EPS forecasts by 8-15% across the sector in November accordingly. That said, we believe the earnings risk has been accounted for in trough valuation multiples based on cautious forecast assumptions (we assume a 10% drop in new car registrations vs. the SMMT at -5%). We continue to favor stocks with flexible balance sheets at this stage of the cycle, and believe stocks such as Vertu and Cambria remain significantly underpinned by their growing property portfolios.
Looking into 2017/18
16 Nov 16
Sector sentiment is at a low point with clear uncertainty around 2017/18 earnings. We are attempting to cut through this, and believe the share price falls more than price in the earnings risk. Following a robust September, we would expect a strong 2016 performance, which has been confirmed by all dealers, but do expect conditions to get more difficult from here. We continue to favour stocks with flexible balance sheets at this stage of the cycle.
Trading update – no change to forecasts
25 Oct 16
Today’s trading update seeks to reassure on Q316 trading with like for like sales 6.3% and PBT growth of 5.7% against a strong comparable period and management comment “we have not experienced any noticeable change in our customers’ behaviour”. Used sales continue to outperform the market increasing by 8.3% in Q316 and new, used and aftersales segments all achieved profit growth in the period..
N+1 Singer - Motor Retail - Low gearing, asset backed, strategically placed
26 Sep 16
After unprecedented amounts of acquisition activity in 2015 and 2016, with c£450m spent by the 4 listed consolidators, we have refreshed our analysis of financial gearing. Contrary to popular belief, gearing in FY17 is forecast at 0.3x ND/EBITDA so well below FY14 (0.7x) and target thresholds (1.0-1.5x). We have also identified that property backing has risen c£175m to c£775m with several retailers now only leasing half their portfolio. Operationally and strategically, the key players appear well positioned to continue outperforming their weaker counterparts, taking market share and forcing more accretive consolidation. This is a virtuous circle which should continue to improve profitability. FCF will also step up in 2 years as the heightened OEM-led capex cycle concludes. Notwithstanding uncertainties around Brexit, trading has remained stable near term. These factors are not priced in, with the subsector trading on a 45% discount to the General Retail sector and on just 1.75x EV/EBITDA on a (purely theoretical) ex property basis.
N+1 Singer - Motor Retail - A compilation of recent snippets
11 Aug 16
After our interesting conference at the start of July (featuring Vertu, Lookers, Marshall, Cambria, ASE and Tesla), Motor Retail shares have generally bounced from their lows, but remain below previous levels. In this note we summarise the recent sector snippets and reiterate some key positive conclusions from our conference, plus provide a link to the video of the event. Brexit, economic uncertainties and SMMT stats are weighing on the sector in sentiment terms, but it is noticeable how the quoted companies continue to actively pursue their growth and consolidation strategies and give reassuring updates. Interims next week from Lookers and Marshall Motors should provide further insight.
H1 results slightly ahead
02 Aug 16
Pendragon has delivered a robust set of H1 results, which are 1% ahead of our forecasts at the adjusted PBT level and 5% ahead at the adjusted EPS level. Cash generation was once again very strong, and the dividend was bang in line with our forecast and +17% YOY. We are maintaining our forecasts on the back of these results, and believe the shares have been oversold to date.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Retain forecasts for FY17E and FY18E
05 Oct 16
While LFL sales growth of 1.8% for the first 12 weeks of FY17 looked a little light, this was on the back of 2.8% growth in the prior period. H2 comps become easier to lap and Christmas bookings (festive trading comprises 15% of FY sales on average) are up 10% YoY.
EBITDA break-even reached, positive outlook
18 Jan 17
7digital’s FY16 revenues increased 7% y-o-y and EBITDA profitability was reached, as targeted, in Q4. New contract wins in FY16 set the stage for a stronger top-line performance in FY17 and we consider management’s reiterated target of operating profitability in FY17 as realistic. For an operationally geared growth company in its first year of profitability, the FY17e EV/EBITDA of c 12x looks attractive.
A year of expansion
17 Jan 17
Final results are broadly in line with our revised forecasts on most headline levels in what proved to be a difficult year for the Group. That said, it has significantly increased room capacity, which is now +40% ahead at the time of the IPO (+14.5% yoy), which improves its competitive position and offering. We are maintaining our headline forecasts, and with the dividend expected to be held for the foreseeable future producing an 8.7% yield with a NAV in excess of 180p, we continue to believe there is strong long term value offered at present.
Strong H1 17 performance, confident outlook for H2
20 Jan 17
Following on from the positive AGM statement at the end of November, MySale has released an upbeat pre-close trading update. Group revenue increased 6% to A$136.1m, while higher margin online revenue, now representing over 90% of the total group, experienced a strong rate of growth of 18% to A$126.5m. As a result, gross margin showed continued improvement of 270bps driving a 17% uplift in gross profit to A$38.4m (versus A$32.7m). Strong trading for the half, combined with a carefully controlled cost base, led to a doubling in EBITDA to A$3.0m. Management are confident going into the second half period and following the increase in guidance at the end of November, the company remains comfortable with current full year forecasts. More detail and an update on trading will be given at the interims expected on 1st March 2017.