PROGRESS YTD
Itaconix PLC (LON:ITX) reported H1 results (18/09/2017) which showed good progress, with revenues of £0.3m (H1 2016 ongoing: nil) and new collaborative partnerships in key product segments.
In this report we examine some of the drivers which are supporting this rapid commercial adoption of Itaconix PLC (LON:ITX) technologies, including productspecific performance attributes and the long-term mega-trend towards environmental sustainability in specialty chemicals.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Itaconix PLC (LON:ITX) has transformed (and renamed) itself in recent years towards a tight focus on specialty polymers for home care, personal and consumer health care, and industrial products. The H1 results demonstrate that the strategy is now delivering real commercial progress. Some of the drivers include:
• A patented production process that combines the versatile chemistry of Itaconic acid with breakthrough economics. • A range of bio-based products which can replace petrochemical ingredients. Industry-wide changes are being driven by consumer preferences, regulatory changes and the “Together for Sustainability initiative within the specialty chemicals sector. • Virtually limitless headroom for growth, with addressable end markets of $30bn. • Existing commercial revenues growing strongly. • Strategic partners including Akzo Nobel, Croda, and Solvay broaden the available channel to market.
In this report we examine some of the drivers in detail, with an overview of product categories and key differentiators.
SHARE PRICE DRIVERS / CATALYSTS
At this early stage of growth we don’t believe that there is any basis to value the shares on 2017/18 multiples. But by 2020 we believe the company could be generating £12m of revenue which would imply the shares trade on a 2020 multiple of 1.2x EV/Sales compared to peers on 3-4x (e.g. Croda plc.). With growth potential extending well beyond 2020, it’s unlikely that the market would value Itaconix this cheaply, in our view.
In the meantime, we believe the main driver for the share price will be adoption of Itaconix products by additional commercial customers. We expect progress across all three end markets – home care, personal and consumer health care, and industrial.
25 Sep 2017
Breakthrough opportunity
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Breakthrough opportunity
Itaconix plc (ITX:LON) | 261 5.2 0.8% | Mkt Cap: 35.2m
- Published:
25 Sep 2017 -
Author:
Ed Stacey -
Pages:
11
PROGRESS YTD
Itaconix PLC (LON:ITX) reported H1 results (18/09/2017) which showed good progress, with revenues of £0.3m (H1 2016 ongoing: nil) and new collaborative partnerships in key product segments.
In this report we examine some of the drivers which are supporting this rapid commercial adoption of Itaconix PLC (LON:ITX) technologies, including productspecific performance attributes and the long-term mega-trend towards environmental sustainability in specialty chemicals.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Itaconix PLC (LON:ITX) has transformed (and renamed) itself in recent years towards a tight focus on specialty polymers for home care, personal and consumer health care, and industrial products. The H1 results demonstrate that the strategy is now delivering real commercial progress. Some of the drivers include:
• A patented production process that combines the versatile chemistry of Itaconic acid with breakthrough economics. • A range of bio-based products which can replace petrochemical ingredients. Industry-wide changes are being driven by consumer preferences, regulatory changes and the “Together for Sustainability initiative within the specialty chemicals sector. • Virtually limitless headroom for growth, with addressable end markets of $30bn. • Existing commercial revenues growing strongly. • Strategic partners including Akzo Nobel, Croda, and Solvay broaden the available channel to market.
In this report we examine some of the drivers in detail, with an overview of product categories and key differentiators.
SHARE PRICE DRIVERS / CATALYSTS
At this early stage of growth we don’t believe that there is any basis to value the shares on 2017/18 multiples. But by 2020 we believe the company could be generating £12m of revenue which would imply the shares trade on a 2020 multiple of 1.2x EV/Sales compared to peers on 3-4x (e.g. Croda plc.). With growth potential extending well beyond 2020, it’s unlikely that the market would value Itaconix this cheaply, in our view.
In the meantime, we believe the main driver for the share price will be adoption of Itaconix products by additional commercial customers. We expect progress across all three end markets – home care, personal and consumer health care, and industrial.