Morning Note – 7 December 2023

Byotrol - H1 2024 interims: Forecasts reinstated

Byotrol’s interim results were in-line with the recent trading update and, as such, we reiterate our FY 2024 forecasts. Group revenues for the period were down by 9% to £2.0m, however, product sales (excluding IP related royalty income) were flat YoY. Encouragingly, professional product sales increased by 8% to £1.8m and the company delivered an improvement in underlying gross margin to 44.5% (vs FY 2023 42.6%) supported by rebalancing the portfolio towards higher margin products in animal and h

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 14/11/2023

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Ergomed has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** 9 November: Chapel Down Group ITF: England's leading and largest wine producer with an award-winning range of sparkling and still wines, under the Chapel Down brand. The Company owns, leases and sources from 1,023 acres of vineyards in South East England announces its Admission to AIM after its transfer from the Aquis Apex market. The Company will not be raising new capital or providing

Morning Note – 14 November 2023

Byotrol - Byotrol Trading Update

Byotrol has provided a trading update for the six-months to September 2023, expecting product sales of £2m and an EBITDA loss of $0.45m. Cash in the bank at the period-end was £0.5m. Excluding discontinued items, product sales were up c£0.3m like-for-like basis. The company now expects FY24E product sales to be c£3.9m, modest growth versus £3.7m for FY23A, on a like-for-like basis. We have updated our forecasts in-line with the trading update, forecasting FY24E product sales of £3.9m and total r

Morning Note – 7 September 2023

Byotrol - Trading update

Byotrol has issued a trading update, outlining that revenues will fall behind earlier expectations for two principal reasons: delays in achieving registrations of Anigene/Chemgene in Germany and a greater impact from the discontinuation of some low margin legacy products, as well as lower IP income. We reduce FY24E revenues by £1.7m (-24%), with EBITDA reduced to breakeven (vs. +£0.8m). The long-term strategic objective and investment thesis, however, remains unchanged: for the trading business

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 31/07/23

Dish of the day Joiners: Metals One (MET1.L) joins AIM. The Company focusing on acquiring natural resources projects with a focus on critical battery metals, including nickel, lithium, cobalt and copper has raised £2.2m at 5p per Ordinary Share. Leavers: Bonhill Group (BONH.L) has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Announced ITF 12 July: Substrate Artificial Intelligence, an artificial intelligence company based in Spain that creates, buys and scales companies around AI in diverse se

Morning Note – 31 July 2023

Byotrol - FY 2023 results

FY 2023 results were in line with the company’s 27 April trading update, with revenues of £4.6m and a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of -£0.7m. Improved product gross margin, driven by SKU rationalisation, together with control over operational expenses, resulted in a £0.9m EBITDA loss, in line with expectations, despite a c.£0.8m reduction in IP income/royalties. We expect further gross margin improvements in product sales to turn the product business EBITDA-positive in FY 2025, with royalty/IP incom

Morning Note – 27 April 2023

Morning Note – 12 December 2022

Byotrol - Interims and forecasts reinstated

Interim results to 30 September reflect lower one-off IP income. However, the trading outlook now appears more predictable, allowing for the reinstatement of forecasts. Revenues reported at £2.2m (vs £3.2m) with adjusted EBITDA £0.5m lower at -£0.35m, entirely driven by lower (£0.5m) IP income in the period, but illustrating a strong recovery (+490bps) in product gross margins. Evidence of market stabilisation post-pandemic and continued market share gains for Byotrol as companies exit the marke

Rude Health - finnCap Life Sciences quarterly sector note

Probably worse before it gets better. As the bear market in biotech and healthcare generally continues to be deeper and more prolonged than any cycle before – and this has occurred in the US, Europe and the UK and for the first time also in Asia – unfortunately it is possible that it could get worse before it gets better. So close to the year-end, it is unlikely that the outlook for raising funds will improve in the very short term. Further, as companies report end-of-year results in early 2023,

Morning Note – 30 August 2022

PROGRESSIVE: Watkin Jones: H1 in-line amid reviving investor appetite

Watkin Jones’s guidance for FY24E is unchanged in its trading update for the first half to 31 March. We maintain our forecasts for the full year and introduce half-year estimates, in line with reiterated guidance that performance will be significantly H2 weighted. The group confirms a continuing gradual recovery in appetite among institutional investors to forward fund its build-to-rent (BTR) and student developments. We believe this should gather pace as the direction of interest rates becomes

Ceres Power Holdings - Strategic partnerships powering growth

Ceres Power Holdings’ innovative technology uses electrolysis to produce green hydrogen and solid oxide fuel cells to generate power. In a year where it moved to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, it recorded revenue growth of 13% and gross margin expansion to 61% (the highest in the sector, according to management), but is yet to record an operating profit (FY23 operating loss of £59.4m versus £54.0m in FY22). Ceres continued its strategy to drive innovation and technology across sol

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth drivers show their value in challenging trading conditions

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) has announced its FY24 full-year results, which are in line with the headline figures from its February trading update. A record year for Licensing and a strong performance in the key North America market helped to offset a challenging consumer environment in other geographies, most notably the UK. While this backdrop is set to persist in FY25E, the group will continue to focus on its strategic growth drivers, notably North America and Licensing, to deliver sharehold

Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) - A chink of light

Gooch has issued a positive update for H1. Trading has started to recover with stocking levels normalising at industrial and medical devices customers. The outlook is positive with growth returning, and management has confirmed our full year estimates (adjusted for the disposal of EM4). The order book and order flow appear healthy, and net debt is comfortable. Gooch clearly still has plenty to do to lift operating margins from a lacklustre 8.1%, but the transformation plan appears to be back on

Surface Transforms - Fund raise for the profitable growth phase

SCE is raising £16m through a placing (and up to a further £3m through open offer) to fund substantial expansion and additional working capital. This will enable the Group to grow to £75m revenue capacity in the near term, commence the build and equipping of a new factory and then (with internally generated free cash flow) scale to £150m revenue capacity and beyond. With a contracted order book of £190m and a prospective pipeline of £400m, this is clearly the time to seize the opportunity. The e

Solid State - Anticipating record adjusted PBT in FY24

Solid State’s trading update affirms the sustained strength in demand throughout H224, resulting in record FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT ahead of prior consensus of £155m and £12.5m, respectively. This is attributable to the earlier-than-expected delivery of a NATO contract. As a result, consensus FY24 revenue and adjusted PBT estimates have been raised by c 6% and c 20%, with respective FY25 estimates declining commensurately.

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - January 2024

Subsector price performance: In the fourth quarter to 29 December 2023 all but the AAA publishers and platform subsector saw share price declines. The UK PC and Console focused subsector was again the worst performing subsector (-26.2%) over the quarter and LTM (-70.1%).

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Time to focus on growth ambitions

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 14 Mar 2024

Banquet Buffet*** Abingdon Health 9.25p £11.3m (ABDX.L) The lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organisation announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. Revenue increased 117% to £2.4m (H1 2023: £1.1m). The Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased 47% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.2m). Furthermore, reduction in operating loss of 50% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.4m). The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024

AFC Energy (AFC LN) - First modular ammonia cracker system

AFC has unveiled a groundbreaking modular ammonia cracker system demonstrating viable and scaleable production of hydrogen in the UK using this method. The cracker system is designed to deliver 140 tonnes of fuel cell grade hydrogen each year. Hydrogen from the plant will initially be targeted for sale into AFC’s UK H-Power Generator deployments, including those with Speedy Hydrogen Solutions. Along with the recent purchase of the mobile storage and distribution assets of Octopus Hydrogen, AFC c

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Delivering to strategy against an unhelpful global backdrop

Sanderson Design Group (SDG) continues to deliver on its key strategic initiatives and growth drivers despite a challenging global backdrop. The group’s FY23 performance showed flat revenue, with adjusted underlying PBT rising £0.1m to £12.6m. Net cash dropped back to £15.4m, with the total dividend maintained at 3.5p. The star performers were Licensing (reported revenue +25%), the Morris & Co brand (+16%) and the US market (+20%). Our forecast revisions assume more modest sales progression, wit

PROGRESSIVE: Sanderson Design Group: Strategic growth pillars bolster results

Sanderson Design Group has delivered its full-year trading update to 31 January 2024. Group revenue has eased back 3.1% to £108.5m on a reported basis, following the 2% decline in H1. The strongest performances were delivered by the strategic growth cornerstones of Licensing and North America, offset by challenging market conditions in the UK, Europe and the Rest of the World. A strong balance sheet saw year-end cash rise to £16.2m, compared with £15.4m at year-end FY23. Having traded in line wi