Greggs - Showing us how it's done

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation t

Greggs - A strong finish to FY23

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was

Greggs - FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Greggs continues to generate premium sales growth through a combination of volume, including market share gains as distribution increases, and price growth. The strength of underlying trading in Q323 is highlighted by management’s confirmation of consensus FY23 PBT expectations despite the addition of new costs for expanding the company’s delivery offer to a second platform and a slight delay in some store openings from the end of the year into FY24.

Greggs - Improving outlook for costs in FY23

Greggs’ H123 results showed continued strong revenue growth, indicating good progress across the majority of its multi-year initiatives to drive revenue growth. Profitability continued to be hampered by input cost inflation as well as investment in the cost base to drive the expected revenue growth. A more favourable outlook for underlying cost inflation in FY23 than previously should be welcomed. We have slightly increased our estimates to reflect the strong growth in H123 and higher interest r

Greggs - Continuation of strong trading in FY23

Greggs’ strong sales performance in the first 19 weeks of the year is in line with management’s expectations and therefore its profit expectations for the year are unchanged, as are our forecasts. Greggs continues to benefit from underlying volume growth despite the squeeze on household budgets and high industry-wide selling price inflation, which is testament to its ongoing product innovation and initiatives to drive growth. Our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of £30.50/share is unch

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 16 May 2023

Greggs - Profits on the go

Greggs has entered the second full financial year of its five-year growth plan having exceeded our initial FY22 revenue estimates, helped by elevated external inflationary pressures, and with profit in line with management’s expectations. Despite the more challenging external environment, Greggs made good progress with the majority of its revenue growth initiatives in FY22. Following the expected normalisation of the cost base, which hampered profit growth in FY22, we forecast more consistent pr

Greggs - Eye-catching revenue growth

Greggs reported a strong acceleration in revenue growth in Q422 as revenue from new initiatives, digital and evening trading complemented anticipated space growth and underlying growth. Value leadership continues to support volume growth and the company’s ability to pass on inflationary cost pressures. As Greggs enters the second full year of its five-year strategy, FY23 profit growth is expected to improve as newer initiatives mature, and following the suppression of FY22 profit by internal inv

Greggs - A ‘relative winner’

Greggs’ impressive sales performance in Q322 enabled it to maintain its FY22 PBT guidance, despite the increasing pressures on consumer discretionary income and (maintained) input cost inflation. Growth is driven by momentum in its own initiatives, eg menu innovation and trading in new channels and dayparts, which is helping Greggs to gain market share. Our DCF-based valuation of £29.70/share is unchanged.

Greggs - Strong H122 trading and progress on strategy

Greggs’ (GRG) strong H122 results and trading to July demonstrate the resilience of its value-based product offering to customers in more challenging macroeconomic conditions and it is making good progress in generating incremental revenue from its new growth initiatives. Management’s reiteration of profit expectations for FY22 is welcome in the face of increasing input cost pressures. The near-term P/E multiple of 18.3x is only in line with its long-run average multiple despite the aspiration t

Carr's Group - An enhanced value creation strategy

Carr’s Group has announced an updated strategy that offers the potential for value realisation and creation from a number of avenues. These include: value realisation of the Engineering Division; the ability to significantly reduce central costs; and longer-term value creation in the Agriculture Division as a focused business with recovery potential and a strategy to leverage its strong market positions for growth.

M.P. Evans - Tougher year but growing cashflow outlook drives optionality

FY23 results are much in line with overall expectations, helped by a much stronger H2 production and higher purchases of independent crops helping to fill the group’s rising mill capacity. A marginally higher than expected average CPO price mill-gate price of $729/tonne drove the revenue outperformance, but the change in production mix impacted gross margins while slightly higher than anticipated interest, tax and minority charges resulted in EBIT, PBT (Adj.) and EPS (Adj.) just below our foreca

Anpario+ (ANP, House Stock at 230p) - FY24F upgrades - recovery play

Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

Ocean Harvest Technology - Harvesting the power of seaweed

Ocean Harvest Technology (OHT), based in the UK, produces animal feed additives products using a composite of blended seaweed. Its patented products have been shown to enhance growth rates in livestock, increase feed efficiency and improve egg quality and quantity for laying poultry. As OHT operates in an attractive market, there is significant potential for its proprietary technology to drive volume growth as awareness of its product benefits increases, along with improving financials.

SP Angel Morning View: Risk sentiment pulls back on geopolitical tensions and concerns over Chinese property market

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Mar 24

20th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 20 March 2024

Morning Note – 11 September 2023

Premier Foods+ (PFD, House Stock, 140p) - Strong trading & share gains

Premier Foods+ (PFD, House Stock, 139p) - Pension cash contributions suspended

Greencore Group+ (GNC, House Stock, 117p) - Delivering on margin rebuild plans

Cake Box Holdings+ (CBOX, House Stock at 161p) - Robust trading - a modest upgrade

Morning Note – 19 January 2024

Morning Note – 23 January 2024