Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Experian. We currently have 20 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
Experian’s top-line growth moderated in Q1, largely due to the tough comparable in the‘Decisioning’ segment. Despite this soft start, management remains confident about the business prospects, maintaining its full-year guidance. We will tweak our estimates slightly, but do not expect a material change in the target price.
Experian maintained its strong organic revenue growth momentum in FY18/19. FX headwinds, however, impacted both the reported top-line and profitability. We expect the strong demand of the company’s recently launched products to last, at least in the near term. Positive data regulation in Brazil should also lend some support, in our opinion. We will revise our target price upwards.
The Q3 results came in ahead of our expectations, gaining strength from the robust US performance. Also, the UK provided much-needed support to its topline, led by positive B2B growth and moderating B2C losses. LatAm and EMEA/Asia also remained positive. Moving forward, regulatory risk (dealing with data privacy laws) seems to be the only risk in the US, whereas in the UK, we maintain our cautious stance given Brexit-led uncertainty stretching further. We have revised our estimates upwards. No change in the stock recommendation.
The company’s H1 FY18/19 results were ahead of our estimates. The robust performance of B2B got the much necessary support from B2C. Region-wise – North America grew in double-digits, whereas Brazil and the UK reported a mid single-digit growth. In the upcoming quarters, we expect North America to remain strong, Brazil to improve and Brexit-related winds playing a crucial role in shaping the UK’s performance. We have revised our estimates upwards. No change in the stock recommendation.
The company reported its Q1 FY18/19 results which came in ahead of our estimates. Both North America and EMEA/Asia continued to grow robustly, gaining additional support from Latin America. Despite the uncertain macro-economic environment, the company’s UK and Ireland operations improved further. Furthermore, the permission to operate under an open banking licence opened new pastures for growth. Considering the continuous strength in the US operations and the recovery in the UK region, we have raised our estimates. No change in our stock recommendation.
Experian reported FY17/18 preliminary results in line with our estimates. Although, B2C remained negative on a yoy basis, the quarterly trend showed signs of initial relief (in UK and Ireland, decline moderated on qoq basis, whereas North America turned positive in Q4), providing much needed support for the ongoing positive B2B momentum. Discounting for the higher than expected performance in B2C segment and a robust B2B performance, we have revised our estimates upwards but no change in our recommendation.
Organic growth came in above our estimates but below market consensus. B2B continued to march forward, whereas B2C remained the drag. Geographically, the US was the kernel of company’s growth, gaining support from improving Brazilian economic situation. We maintain our conservative view on US, whereas Brazil remains the strongest pillar in Latin America. In the UK (Consumer Services), Experian’s strategy to monetize its increasing clientele through additional offerings seems to yield favourable initial results. No change in our stock recommendation.
Since Equifax announced a data breach in September 2017, legislators have been trying hard to penalize the lax attitude of data managers (including credit scoring companies). Recently, a bill was tabled in the Senate (Data Breach and Compensation Act), which proposes significant fines in the event of a data breach. Looking into the fine print, the bill recommends a fine of $100 per customer whose personal information gets compromised (with an additional $50 for each piece of data put at risk per person). The total sanctions are capped at 50% of the company’s total gross revenue. Also, if a company fails to disclose the breach to regulators in a timely manner, or has insufficient cyber security in place, the cap will increase to 75%. If this legislation had been in place during the Equifax fiasco, the company would have incurred a fine of at least $1.5bn.
B2B was strong (c.80% of group revenue) but B2C business remained weak. We reiterate our earlier position of a gradual softness in the US economy. We also do not see any long-term benefits from the Equifax fiasco considering a history of customer stickiness (lack of substitutes/limited number of reputed players in the credit scoring business). Although the B2C business is estimated to benefit from a series of small but key steps, it will not return to the black anytime soon. No change in stock recommendation.
Experian reported FY16/17 results in line with our estimates. The lfl revenue growth came in at 4.0% (the same as our estimate; +5% lfl excluding the CCM business), driven by strong momentum in the B2B businesses (+7.0% yoy) – Credit Services (+6% yoy, c.55% of group revenue), Decision Analytics (+9.0%, c.14% of group revenue) and Marketing Services (+8.0%; c.10% of group revenue). However, the B2C business, Consumer Services, witnessed a 4% lfl decline (c.22% of group revenue), largely due to the ongoing transition over the past few quarters. Geographically, North America clocked 5% organic growth (vs our estimate: 4.3%), on the back of positive demand in both Credit and Marketing Services (+8.0% yoy in each segment). The Decision Analytics business remained flat as new-business wins and the strength in scoring and analytics was offset by the non-renewal of a customer contract earlier in the year. Consumer Services ended the year in the red with a 2% lfl decline. UK & Ireland (+1% lfl, c.19% of group revenue) performed in line with our estimates. Growth in B2B businesses (Credit: +3%, Decision Analytics: +5% and Marketing: +5%) was largely offset by the 9% decline in the Consumer business (currently undergoing a transitioning phase), the company has built a free membership base of over 1.7 million members. In the LatAm region (17% of group revenue), the lfl revenue increased by 9.0% (vs our estimate: 7.6%), on account of continued strength from countercyclical products in Credit Services (+6.0% yoy). Marketing and Decision Analytics businesses also registered a positive momentum during the year (+39.0% and +34.0% respectively). Asia Pacific/EMEA (c.8% of group revenue) grew by 9.0% during the year (vs our estimate: 7.4%), driven by the strong performance in Decision Analytics and Marketing services (+21% and +16%, respectively). While Decision Analytics capitalised on new client wins and the strong demand for decisioning and fraud-prevention software, Marketing Services leapt due to good growth in Data Quality and Targeting services. Credit Services declined by 3% due to headwinds in the Nordics and South Africa, partially offset by positive growth in APAC and Southern Europe. The adjusted EBIT margin (excluding the Cross-Channel Marketing business) was 27.7%, up 60bp for the year, reflecting the phasing of investment in strategic growth initiatives and FX tailwinds. The company repurchased shares worth $353m during FY16/17 and announced an interim dividend of $0.415 per share (+4% yoy). Management’s guidance for FY17/18 is for mid single-digit organic revenue growth, capex at 8-9% of revenue and share repurchases of $600m.
Experian reported Q3 FY16/17 results slightly below our estimates. The lfl revenue increased by 4.0% (vs Q2: +5.0%, Q1: +5.0%; our estimate: +5.0%), largely driven by strong growth in credit services (+6.0% yoy; c.50% of group revenue) and the decision analytics business (+10.0% yoy; c.13% of group revenue). North America’s organic revenue growth slowed to 3.0% (vs Q2: +5.2%, Q1: +5.0%; our estimate: +5.5%) due to tougher Q3 FY15/16 comparables in the consumer services business (Q3: -5.0%, Q2: -1.0%). However, this softness was more than offset by good demand for credit services and new contract wins in the marketing services business. Despite ongoing macro headwinds in Brazil, the Latin America region delivered another strong performance during the quarter (Q3: +8.0%, Q2: +5.7%, Q1: +8.0%; vs our estimate: +7.4%). The growth largely emanated from counter-cyclical credit bureau products and increased demand for data and analytics services from large banks and retailers. In the UK & Ireland, organic revenue advanced by 2.0% (vs Q2: +0.6%, Q1: +1.0%; our estimate: +0.1%) as the growth in the services (+5.0% yoy) and decision analytics businesses (+12.0% yoy) was partially offset by a decline in the consumer services business (-12.0% yoy). EMEA/Asia Pacific region clocked lfl revenue growth of 6.0% (vs Q2: +6.7%, Q1: +9.0%; our estimate: +9.0%) on the back of sustained demand for credit decisioning software and fraud prevention services. Fx headwinds (-2% yoy; largely due to weaker GBP vs USD) eclipsed the 2.0% positive scope impact, resulting in total reported revenue growth of 4.0%. On a YTD basis, the company spent $324m on net share repurchases (vs a full year target of $400m). For FY16/17, management guided for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, stable margins and further progress in the benchmark EPS.
Experian reported H1 FY17 results in line with our estimates. Lfl sales increased by 5% (Q2 FY17: +5%, Q1 FY17: +5%, FY16: +5%; our estimate: +5.2%), largely driven by credit services (+7% yoy; new client wins in US hospitals) and the decision analytics business (+8% yoy; higher demand of fraud and identity management software). North America’s organic revenue was up 5% (vs Q1 FY17: +5%, FY16: +3%; our estimate: +5.8%), once again driven by strong credit services demand from the health vertical. The decision analytics business improved sequentially (Q2 FY17: +7%, Q1 FY17: -1%, Q4 FY16: -8.6%), on the back of new business wins in the financial services and public sector. Despite ongoing macro-economic headwinds, Latin America clocked 5% lfl revenue growth (vs Q1 FY17: +8%, FY16: +7%; our estimate: +6.8%). The demand for counter-cyclical products (particularly delinquency notifications) once again led to resilient growth in credit services (+5%; contributes c.91% of the regional revenue). In the UK, organic revenue growth came in at +1% (vs Q1 FY17: +1%, FY16: +5%; our estimate: +1.5%), largely due to depressed growth in both credit (Q2 FY17: 0%, Q1 FY17: +6%) and consumer services business (Q2 FY17: -9%, Q1 FY17: -1%). EMEA/Asia Pacific delivered another strong performance with lfl revenue growth of 8% (vs Q1 FY17: +9%, FY16: +7%; our estimate: +8.9%), driven by significant new client wins for credit-decisioning software and fraud prevention products. Strong FX headwinds (-2% impact on the top-line; due to weak GBP and BRL vs USD) resulted in the total group’s revenue growth of 3% (vs Q1 FY17: +1%, FY 16: -4%, our estimate: +2.9%). Even with better operating leverage in North America, the group’s EBIT margin came in at 25.7%, -10bp yoy due to higher sales mix of counter-cyclical products (lower margin vs other core products) and investment in growth initiatives across the businesses. The company repurchased shares worth US$79m during H1 FY17 (has plans for further US$321m share buy-back in the H2 FY17) and announced an interim dividend of 13c per share (+4% yoy; payable in January 2017). For FY17, management has guided mid-single digit organic revenue growth and currency headwinds of 2% and 1% on top-line and EBIT, respectively.
Experian reported Q1 FY17 results (three months ending 30 June 2016) broadly in line with our estimates. The lfl sales increased by 5% (vs Q4 16: +6%, Q3 16: +6%; our estimate: +4.8%), largely driven by robust growth in credit services (+8% yoy) and the decision analytics business (+6% yoy). In North America (Q1 17: +5% vs Q4 16: +6%, Q3 16: +6%; our estimates: +4.7%), robust demand from automotive and healthcare clients underpinned the growth in credit services business (Q1 17: +11% vs Q4 16: +12%; Q3 16: +11%, our estimate: +8%). The consumer services business clocked organic growth of 1% (vs Q4 16: +1%; Q3 16: +3%, our estimate: +3%) as the company monetised free traffic (accumulated 4.5 million members since the launch of the free site a year ago) through the cross-selling of membership products and lead generation. Despite ongoing macro-economic headwinds, the LatAm business delivered another strong performance (Q1 17: 8% vs Q4 16: 7.8%, Q3 16: +7%; our estimate: +4.9%) on the back of growth in delinquency notification products and deeper client penetration. Additionally, the company launched the consumer services business in Brazil in July 2016. Organic growth slumped to 1% in the UK (vs Q4 16: +6.5%, Q3 16: +4%; our estimate: +3.9%), pulled down by the sequential slowdown in the consumer services business (-1% yoy; undergoing business transition) and a strong comparative in the decision analytics business (Q1 17: -2% vs Q1 16: +15%). In EMEA/ Asia Pacific, new business wins in decision analytics (+27% yoy) and good demand for cross-channel marketing and data quality services in the marketing business (+11% yoy) resulted in revenue growth of 9% on a lfl basis (Q4 16: +10%, Q3 16: +7%; our estimate: +6.7%). Strong FX headwinds (weak GBP and Brazilian real vs the USD) led the total revenue up 1% (FY 16: -4%, Q3 16: -3%, H1 16: -6%, our estimate: 2.3%). Furthermore, Experian announced the acquisition of CSIdentity Corp., a consumer identity management and fraud detection services provider in the US for $360m (annualised revenue of $103m and $21m EBIT in the year ending March 2016). The acquired entity will be aligned to Experian’s ‘Consumer Services’ business. The company plans to spend $400m on a share repurchase programme in FY17 (vs $592m in FY16). Lastly, management reiterated FY17 guidance of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and stable margins at constant rates (c. 1% headwind to EBIT, if current exchange rates prevail).
Steve “Woz” Wozniak, infamous co-founder of Apple, was the latest culprit to send shivers across the tech world by claiming Cybersecurity is the greatest threat the world has faced since the atom bomb. Mr Wozniak was alluding to the heightened sense of fear that recent high profile breaches have caused Cybersecurity to be put at the forefront of political, corporate and now it would appear, investor agendas. As the topic gains increasing awareness, it gives rise to a number of companies claiming to be a “thought leader” in the Cybersecurity space, holding the best IP and the best routes to market. With many companies singing from the same loss making hymn sheet it is making it ever difficult to spot the true “Spartacus” from the crowd.
Companies: BA/ BVC BLTG CHRT 9537 CNS DFX ECK EXPN GBG IGP MPAY NCC OSI SCH TERN
Experian posted better-than-expected results in its Q3 FY16 trading update, generating an organic revenue growth of 6% (vs. 4% in H1 FY16), but currency headwinds totally wiped out this growth as reported sales declined by 3%. All the sales growth numbers are organic unless specified otherwise. Both Credit Services and Decision Analytics clocked 8% growth, while Marketing Services and Consumer Services grew at a meagre 2%. In North America (+6% vs +1% in H1), robust business in healthcare and automotive verticals, and consumer credit activity underpinned the growth in Credit Services (+11% vs +8% in H1), while a one-off on-boarding of a large client led to 3% (vs. -7% in H1) growth in the Consumer Services segment. Decision Analytics, however, declined by 2% (vs +2% in H1). Despite macro-economic headwinds in Latin America (+7% vs +6% in H1), all segments experienced strong upwards momentum. Credit Services (+7% vs. 7% in H1) was driven by an increased contribution from delinquency notifications linked to non-performing loans in Brazil. As the new software implementations across the region fuelled 5% growth in Decision Analytics (vs 9% in H1), an increase in cross-channel marketing led to 4% growth in Marketing Services (vs -19% in H1). The UK grew at a slower pace (+4% vs 5% in H1), pulled down by Decision Analytics (+8% vs +12% in H1) and Consumer Services (+2% vs 5% in H1). It is increasingly facing competition from Equifax (ClearScore) and Callcredit (Noddle). EMEA/Asia Pacific (c.10% of total revenue) was up by 7% (vs +6% in H1), driven by fraud and identity services in Decision Analytics (+23% vs +19% in H1), and new client wins and enhanced cross-channel marketing in Marketing Services (+10 vs +8% in H1 FY16). Management reaffirmed its full year guidance of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and an 11% FX impact at EBIT level (if current rates prevail).
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Experian. We currently have 20 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
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Judges has delivered strong H1 with adj. PBT +27.4% to £8.4m, 4% ahead of our forecast. Cash generation was strong (£7.2m H1 net cash, 17.5% FCF % to sales) and H1 DPS is up 25%.
Companies: Judges Scientific
Revenue increased 2.5% to £43.9m (HY18: £42.9m), 1.0% on constant currency basis, with gross margin 10bps ahead yoy at 38.0%. Good cost control combined with lower finance charge leads to a 4.6% yoy increase in pre-tax profit to £11.5m (HY18: 11.0m). Today’s interim results indicate that the Controls business has a had a strong start to the year on the back of positive mix and the price increases put through on legacy product at the end of FY18. Aqua Optima is flat yoy due to timing of contracts, ZC expect a stronger H2 as material private label contracts come on stream and the majority of additional revenue from HaloSource lands in H2. Net debt at period end stood at c. £33.4m and is on course to meet ZC FY19 forecast of c. £32.0m, sub 1.0x EBITDA. Interim dividend increased 13% to 2.6p and is in line with the Board’s commitment to pay 7.7p in FY19, a 10% yoy increase. No change to ZC forecasts, albeit today’s results increase confidence in achieving FY19 forecasts. The shares trade on 11.8x FY19 earnings falling to 10.9x in FY20.
Companies: Strix Group
Tech IPOs year to date have performed well. 8/13 venture-backed tech IPOs this year, including Slack's direct listing, are in profitable territory. If you'd put $1 million into each of them at the IPO price, your $13 million initial investment would be worth $21.7 million - a 67% gain compared to +20% performance in the S&P 500 YTD. As we’ve discussed earlier this month, investors’ appetite for technologies leveraging secular trends appears undiminished
Companies: TRAK CPX SEE QTX
Interim results worse than expectations with an 88% reduction in FD EPS yoy. We reduce our FY 2019 FD EPS estimate from 37.9p to 24.8p.
Companies: Staffline Group
‘The Group has delivered a solid H1 performance and is trading in line with full year market expectations’. Accordingly, we leave our FY 19/20 forecasts unchanged. Reassuringly, Strix reconfirms at this stage its intention to pay total dividends of 7.7p per share for FY 19, +10% YoY. This should underline the income attractions of this stock to investors
Companies: Strix Group
Interim results featured growth in indexed linked annually recurring revenue (ILARR), the main driver of value, to £85.9m, up of 14.1% to £85.9m. The weak performance of the shares in recent months has presented investors with an opportunity to invest at an underpinned valuation in our view, with the core value of SMS clearly residing in the scale of its growing meter and data portfolio and our FY19E forecast £92m ILARR. The current order book of 2m smart meters supports our forecast 4m installed by 2022, from which our DCF forecast implies a valuation of 911p, c108% ahead of the current level.
Companies: Smart Metering Systems
K3 Capital’s full-year results to 31 May 2019 showed that the group continues to build the business, further strengthening its unique position in the UK small and midcap M&A market. Group revenue split points to reduced sensitivity to the large-value, lower-volume M&A market, with an increasing share of revenue coming from the more stable low and mid-market M&A deals in KBS Corporate, where the group’s unique position and approach point to continued strong value creation. We note Q1 FY 2020 has already seen the Corporate Finance division exceed the £0.8m revenues achieved in the entirety of FY 2019.
Companies: K3 Capital Group
Rosenblatt has announced the acquisition of Convex Capital Limited, a specialist corporate finance boutique, for total consideration of £22m. In line with the Group’s acquisition approach, most of the consideration (c.60%) is to be paid in shares, and we highlight these are to be issued at a premium to the current share price (first tranche at 120p). The high margin (>50% EBITDA) profile of Convex should prove immediately earnings enhancing, and the opportunity for cross-selling and diversified earnings supports the investment thesis on the shares. We make no changes to numbers this morning. Re-iterate Buy.
Companies: Rosenblatt Group
Full-year results were slightly ahead of recently upgraded forecasts, with an outlook that appears more confident than many in the sector and a further small upgrade in current-year expectations. The shares offer significant upside, and we maintain our 300p price target, although our SOTP valuation signals a much higher potential to be achieved on disposals.
Facebook has been working to develop augmented reality glasses out of its Facebook Reality Labs in Redmond, Washington, for the past couple of years, but struggles with the development of the project have led the company to seek help. Now, Facebook is hoping a partnership with RayBan parent company Luxottica will get them completed and ready for consumers between 2023 and 2025, according to people familiar. Needless to say, we highlight a potentially substantial threat to Snap Inc, and a potentially huge opportunity for developers within the Facebook ecosystem.
Companies: EVRH ESYS BGO BOKU EQLS IMMO SMRT TECH VRE
Management has delivered a year of excellent progress as the team continues to execute on the Group’s Pinpoint-Invest-Exit (‘PIE’) strategy. The group’s portfolio of businesses is focused on the global energy and medical markets that provide the prospect of enduring and positive growth trends. A concentration on the opportunities for aftermarket products and solutions is enhancing growth and profitability as capabilities are added and operational improvements are made. We have upgraded FY2020E EPS conservatively by 8% and estimates for FY2021E now show 25% earnings growth. FY2021E captures the benefit of the turnarounds at both Energy Steel and Booth Industries, acquired at the start of the current financial year.
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
The combination of the strategic acquisition of Sapienza and robust organic growth has resulted in a strong set of H1/19A numbers. Revenue and the order book increased to £26.0m (+63% YoY) and £78.9m (+63% from FY18A year-end) respectively, with the latter now covering 94% of our FY19E revenue forecasts. We expect this momentum to continue and note that the Group is on track to meet our FY19E forecasts.
Companies: TP Group
Underlying operating profit (pre IFRS 16) of £8.3m is 11% ahead of the £7.5m reported in HY18 as margin improved 60bps to 5.9%. FY19 expectations of £20.1m are predicated on a £1.4m yoy improvement with the business having delivered £0.8m in H1. Further cost recovery, positive volume expectations and additional efficiency improvements in H2 mean that confidence in achieving FY19 estimates is increasing. Despite the UK RMI market remaining difficult, Epwin should continue to outperform in terms of market share and, having weathered material cost headwinds, has an opportunity to rebuild margin back towards the double digit achieved at the EBITDA level historically (pre IFRS 16). We leave forecasts unchanged but with increased confidence in achieving the FY19 estimates.
Companies: Epwin Group
We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming). Our stock-picking bias is towards companies with strong growth, profitability and cash conversion, consistent with our Arden Technology Thematic Framework. Considering company-level fundamentals we believe exposure to varying growth themes will produce dispersion, creating opportunities to identify relative winners. On this basis, we believe Codemasters (CDM LN), Sumo Group (SUMO LN) and Team17 (TM17 LN) are best positioned, and we are initiating coverage with Buy ratings, with Frontier Developments (FDEV LN) and Keywords Studios (KWS LN) on Neutral ratings.
Companies: CDM FDEV KWS SUMO TM17