Like it or not, but in 10 months’ time the UK will leave the EU. Critics have warned about the challenges, yet being inside Europe isn’t exactly risk-free either. As evidenced by the resurgence last week of anti-establishment rhetoric in Italy/Spain, and worries of another Eurozone crisis.
Either way, the UK construction industry ploughs ahead unabated. Building the 100ks of new homes the country desperately needs, together with updating often capacity constrained & dilapidated infrastructure (eg rail, power, water, airports, etc). Secular trends that should endure irrespective of Brexit.
Indeed the Construction Products Association (CPA) reckon that despite a weak Q1’18 (- 2.7%), UK building output will expand on average at 1.0% for the following 3 quarters (0.1% FY), before accelerating to 2.7% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020 (see below) - compared to 2018 GDP of 1.4% and 1.7% thereafter.
Within this, infrastructure (43% of Vp’s FY18 turnover) is set to be the standout, motoring along at a 6.4% clip this year and 13.1% next, as several giant civil engineering projects kick-off – not least HS2, the Thames Tideway Tunnel, Crossrail 2 and Hinkley Point.