Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on EXPERIAN PLC. We currently have 8 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
|18Jan17 03:07||RNS||Transaction in Own Shares|
|18Jan17 07:00||RNS||Trading update, third quarter|
|06Jan17 05:32||RNS||First interim dividend|
|30Dec16 01:26||RNS||Total Voting Rights|
|30Dec16 10:00||RNS||Share buy-back programme|
|20Dec16 02:27||PRN||All Five Cities Seeing Lower Default Rates Compared To Last Year In The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices|
|15Dec16 01:45||PRN||Want horsepower, but drive a four-cylinder vehicle? Good news. Now you have it.|
Frequency of research reports
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Fundamentals remain strong; limited upside in the near term
23 Dec 16
Experian reported H1 FY17 results in line with our estimates. Lfl sales increased by 5% (Q2 FY17: +5%, Q1 FY17: +5%, FY16: +5%; our estimate: +5.2%), largely driven by credit services (+7% yoy; new client wins in US hospitals) and the decision analytics business (+8% yoy; higher demand of fraud and identity management software). North America’s organic revenue was up 5% (vs Q1 FY17: +5%, FY16: +3%; our estimate: +5.8%), once again driven by strong credit services demand from the health vertical. The decision analytics business improved sequentially (Q2 FY17: +7%, Q1 FY17: -1%, Q4 FY16: -8.6%), on the back of new business wins in the financial services and public sector. Despite ongoing macro-economic headwinds, Latin America clocked 5% lfl revenue growth (vs Q1 FY17: +8%, FY16: +7%; our estimate: +6.8%). The demand for counter-cyclical products (particularly delinquency notifications) once again led to resilient growth in credit services (+5%; contributes c.91% of the regional revenue). In the UK, organic revenue growth came in at +1% (vs Q1 FY17: +1%, FY16: +5%; our estimate: +1.5%), largely due to depressed growth in both credit (Q2 FY17: 0%, Q1 FY17: +6%) and consumer services business (Q2 FY17: -9%, Q1 FY17: -1%). EMEA/Asia Pacific delivered another strong performance with lfl revenue growth of 8% (vs Q1 FY17: +9%, FY16: +7%; our estimate: +8.9%), driven by significant new client wins for credit-decisioning software and fraud prevention products. Strong FX headwinds (-2% impact on the top-line; due to weak GBP and BRL vs USD) resulted in the total group’s revenue growth of 3% (vs Q1 FY17: +1%, FY 16: -4%, our estimate: +2.9%). Even with better operating leverage in North America, the group’s EBIT margin came in at 25.7%, -10bp yoy due to higher sales mix of counter-cyclical products (lower margin vs other core products) and investment in growth initiatives across the businesses. The company repurchased shares worth US$79m during H1 FY17 (has plans for further US$321m share buy-back in the H2 FY17) and announced an interim dividend of 13c per share (+4% yoy; payable in January 2017). For FY17, management has guided mid-single digit organic revenue growth and currency headwinds of 2% and 1% on top-line and EBIT, respectively.
Robust organic growth despite sluggish consumer business
28 Jul 16
Experian reported Q1 FY17 results (three months ending 30 June 2016) broadly in line with our estimates. The lfl sales increased by 5% (vs Q4 16: +6%, Q3 16: +6%; our estimate: +4.8%), largely driven by robust growth in credit services (+8% yoy) and the decision analytics business (+6% yoy). In North America (Q1 17: +5% vs Q4 16: +6%, Q3 16: +6%; our estimates: +4.7%), robust demand from automotive and healthcare clients underpinned the growth in credit services business (Q1 17: +11% vs Q4 16: +12%; Q3 16: +11%, our estimate: +8%). The consumer services business clocked organic growth of 1% (vs Q4 16: +1%; Q3 16: +3%, our estimate: +3%) as the company monetised free traffic (accumulated 4.5 million members since the launch of the free site a year ago) through the cross-selling of membership products and lead generation. Despite ongoing macro-economic headwinds, the LatAm business delivered another strong performance (Q1 17: 8% vs Q4 16: 7.8%, Q3 16: +7%; our estimate: +4.9%) on the back of growth in delinquency notification products and deeper client penetration. Additionally, the company launched the consumer services business in Brazil in July 2016. Organic growth slumped to 1% in the UK (vs Q4 16: +6.5%, Q3 16: +4%; our estimate: +3.9%), pulled down by the sequential slowdown in the consumer services business (-1% yoy; undergoing business transition) and a strong comparative in the decision analytics business (Q1 17: -2% vs Q1 16: +15%). In EMEA/ Asia Pacific, new business wins in decision analytics (+27% yoy) and good demand for cross-channel marketing and data quality services in the marketing business (+11% yoy) resulted in revenue growth of 9% on a lfl basis (Q4 16: +10%, Q3 16: +7%; our estimate: +6.7%). Strong FX headwinds (weak GBP and Brazilian real vs the USD) led the total revenue up 1% (FY 16: -4%, Q3 16: -3%, H1 16: -6%, our estimate: 2.3%). Furthermore, Experian announced the acquisition of CSIdentity Corp., a consumer identity management and fraud detection services provider in the US for $360m (annualised revenue of $103m and $21m EBIT in the year ending March 2016). The acquired entity will be aligned to Experian’s ‘Consumer Services’ business. The company plans to spend $400m on a share repurchase programme in FY17 (vs $592m in FY16). Lastly, management reiterated FY17 guidance of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and stable margins at constant rates (c. 1% headwind to EBIT, if current exchange rates prevail).
15 Jul 16
"The devastating incident that took place in Nice late yesterday, sadly bearing all the hallmarks of terrorism, will likely keep European markets in the red today. The FTSE-100 is seen opening down around 35 points. London equity investors will also reflect further on the Bank of England surprisingly keeping its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 0.5%, when investors had been expecting to policy loosening by 25bp. With the Governor, Mark Carney, continuing to warn of postBrexit UK entering a phase of slower growth, however, the MPC is now expected simply to gathered more evidence before taking the inevitable step in August. US equity indices were stronger across the board yesterday, as financials took confidence from J.P. Morgan Chase's strong half-year results while the Fed's James Bullard suggested there was now no rush to push rates higher, pointing at a preferred 'wait-and-see' approach in his various press comments. Asian shares also continued to move positively with the Nikkei again leading the way, taking its weekly gain to almost 10%, the largest such rise since December 2009, driven once again by Nintendo but also by messaging-app operator, Line, which surged sharply upward on its Tokyo debut. The Shanghai Composite also celebrated release of economic data showing better than expected Q2'16 growth in response to massive stimulus provided since the start of the year, although it had given all its early gains back by the close. Macro data due for release today includes UK Construction Output figures and Trade and Inflation data from the EU. The US is scheduled to provide a plethora of important statistics, including Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Inflation data; the Fed's Kashkari is also expected to be the latest to muse on US rate and growth expectations. No major UK corporates are due to release trading updates or results today, although investors will be listening intently for any further statements from BP regarding costs for the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster which, post-yesterday's market close, it indicated will rise a further US$5.2bn, taking the total cost to almost US$62bn, in order to bring the event to a final close." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
The Cybersecurity Rebellion: “No, I’m Spartacus!”
07 Jun 16
Steve “Woz” Wozniak, infamous co-founder of Apple, was the latest culprit to send shivers across the tech world by claiming Cybersecurity is the greatest threat the world has faced since the atom bomb. Mr Wozniak was alluding to the heightened sense of fear that recent high profile breaches have caused Cybersecurity to be put at the forefront of political, corporate and now it would appear, investor agendas. As the topic gains increasing awareness, it gives rise to a number of companies claiming to be a “thought leader” in the Cybersecurity space, holding the best IP and the best routes to market. With many companies singing from the same loss making hymn sheet it is making it ever difficult to spot the true “Spartacus” from the crowd.
12 May 16
"Equities in London are expected to fall on the open, with the FTSE-100 seen down around 25-points. Sentiment is being dragged from both the US and Asian overnight markets, where poor corporate earnings undermined confidence. Disappointing results from Macy's, America's bellwether retail stock, suggested that US consumer confidence is perhaps less resilient than hoped, the net result being to knock the major domestic indices by 1% or more. The mood spread to Asia, where Japanese company results similarly delivered below expectations, also forcing the principal markets into the red by the close. European investors meanwhile will have a lot of data to consider this morning with releases including the Bank of England MPC meeting minutes and rate decision plus Eurozone industrial production figures, while David Cameron hosts an anti-corruption summit. Later this afternoon, expect US weekly jobless claims and speeches by Fed's Rosengren and George. London's trading updates include ITV andMondi, along with results from Aldermore, Galliford Try, SuperGroup and TalkTalk Telecom."
Stronger Fx headwinds continue to eat strong organic growth
21 Jan 16
Experian posted better-than-expected results in its Q3 FY16 trading update, generating an organic revenue growth of 6% (vs. 4% in H1 FY16), but currency headwinds totally wiped out this growth as reported sales declined by 3%. All the sales growth numbers are organic unless specified otherwise. Both Credit Services and Decision Analytics clocked 8% growth, while Marketing Services and Consumer Services grew at a meagre 2%. In North America (+6% vs +1% in H1), robust business in healthcare and automotive verticals, and consumer credit activity underpinned the growth in Credit Services (+11% vs +8% in H1), while a one-off on-boarding of a large client led to 3% (vs. -7% in H1) growth in the Consumer Services segment. Decision Analytics, however, declined by 2% (vs +2% in H1). Despite macro-economic headwinds in Latin America (+7% vs +6% in H1), all segments experienced strong upwards momentum. Credit Services (+7% vs. 7% in H1) was driven by an increased contribution from delinquency notifications linked to non-performing loans in Brazil. As the new software implementations across the region fuelled 5% growth in Decision Analytics (vs 9% in H1), an increase in cross-channel marketing led to 4% growth in Marketing Services (vs -19% in H1). The UK grew at a slower pace (+4% vs 5% in H1), pulled down by Decision Analytics (+8% vs +12% in H1) and Consumer Services (+2% vs 5% in H1). It is increasingly facing competition from Equifax (ClearScore) and Callcredit (Noddle). EMEA/Asia Pacific (c.10% of total revenue) was up by 7% (vs +6% in H1), driven by fraud and identity services in Decision Analytics (+23% vs +19% in H1), and new client wins and enhanced cross-channel marketing in Marketing Services (+10 vs +8% in H1 FY16). Management reaffirmed its full year guidance of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and an 11% FX impact at EBIT level (if current rates prevail).
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 10 focus stocks
12 Jan 17
We have refreshed our momentum style screen for the first time since inception on 26 July 2016. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme momentum characteristics, according to our measurement method. From these we have selected 10 to focus on. Since inception the screen has underperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of generally rising momentum. We have noted a subset of the basket, where decelerating momentum at the time of measurement appears correlated with significant share price falls since selection. We shall monitor this factor with the new screen, albeit there are only two such stocks showing this pattern, namely Lamprell (not rated) and Gear4music (not rated).
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 12-01-2017
12 Jan 17
As anticipated, the second half has again been stronger than H1 and results will be broadly in line with expectations. In line with this, the order book has continued to grow and is at record levels. This confirms that significant progress has been made in the Group’s shift towards its Technology Products division which, as targeted, contributed c.60% of group revenue in FY16. The small acquisition of Cable Power also gives a complementary boost to the product range. It is also worth noting the significant reduction in net debt, £1.0m ahead of our forecast. We remain supportive of the Group’s strategy and continue to see a bright future as this transition towards a design led technology solutions business continues. We look forward to more detail in March at the final results.
N+1 Singer - Best Ideas 2017 - Top picks
04 Jan 17
Today we publish our Best Ideas for 2017 - 12 stocks that we believe have excellent prospects in the current year together with a detailed discussion of what we see as the key sector and market themes for 2017. Our top picks are Cineworld, Elementis, Herald Investment Trust, Hill & Smith, IQE, MySale, Redde, ReNeuron, RhythmOne, SDL, Servelec and Severfield.