Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 15 Jun 23

15th June 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objecti

GB Group - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Doctor Care Anywhere (DOC), Argentex Group (AGFX), Newmont Corporation (NEM), GB Group (GBG), Abliva (ABLI) and TIE Kinetix (TIE). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.

GB Group - H123 performance masks strategic progress

GB Group (GBG) reported a mixed performance in H123: strong growth in its Fraud and Location businesses was offset by weaker performance in the Identity business resulting in pro forma constant currency revenue growth of 3.4% y-o-y. Cryptocurrency headwinds and slowing economic growth drive downgrades to our Identity revenues and normalised EPS forecasts. Integration of Acuant is now complete and GBG is showing early signs of leveraging Acuant’s products and technology across the group.

GB Group - FY23 outlook maintained

GB Group’s (GBG’s) H123 trading update confirmed strong growth in its Fraud and Location businesses, offset by weaker growth in the Identity business. Pro forma revenue growth of 10% included a 6.5% currency benefit. While the board maintains its expectations for FY23, we have trimmed our forecast to reflect the weighting of growth across divisions, reducing our normalised EPS forecast by 1.7% in FY22, 1.2% in FY23 and 1.3% in FY24.

LIBERUM: UK Small & Mid Cap Dispatches

GB Group - Maintaining FY23 outlook

GB Group’s AGM trading update confirms that the Fraud and Location businesses have seen solid underlying growth year-to-date. A tough comparative period for the Identity business has been partially offset by the favourable US dollar translation effect. With broad geographic coverage and the need for identity and fraud solutions across different sectors and economic cycles, the board anticipates FY23 results in line with its expectations, despite current economic uncertainty.

GB Group - Capitalising on recent strategic investment

GB Group (GBG) reported strong underlying revenue growth for FY22 while profitability growth reflected the resumption of investment in the business. GBG has demonstrated the ability to navigate challenges with its performance over the COVID-19 pandemic and we view its diversified business (by geography and vertical) as a strength in an uncertain market environment. Our forecasts are substantially unchanged and in our view the valuation has become increasingly detached from the company’s growth p

GB Group - Strong H2 performance drives upgrades

GB Group (GBG) expects to report revenue and adjusted operating profit for FY22 well ahead of our and consensus forecasts having seen a strong performance across all three divisions in H222. We have raised our forecasts to reflect this strength, with EPS upgrades of 5.4% for FY22, 1.9% for FY23 and 1.6% for FY24. In our view, there is a widening discrepancy between the company’s growth potential and its valuation.

GB Group - Strong organic growth in H122

GB Group (GBG) reported a strong performance in H122, with organic constant currency revenue growth of 12.6% y-o-y and an adjusted operating margin of 25.5%. The Acuant acquisition completed on 29 November and the group’s immediate focus is on combining the two companies and pushing forward with growth plans. Our forecasts are substantially unchanged.

Tracsis - Interims: FY order book visibility and a doubled pipeline

Interims to January are in line with the February TU, and materially unchanged forecasts for the FY July 2024. After the well flagged expected 1H24 revenue movement of -7% (vs 1H23 which had been strengthened by c£2m perpetual licence sales in the US), prospects for the second half are supported by several new contracts that will generate revenue in 2H24, in addition to material contract delivery milestones from existing large projects such as major TRACS Enterprise, Railhub deployments, and Rem

Eleco - FY23 recurring revenue growth of +22%, EBITDA +2% ahead

Eleco’s FY23 results show robust organic recurring revenue growth of +17% with recurring revenue +22% to £20.7m, adj EBITDA +2% ahead of the January update, and a confident outlook with Q1 ARR already at £24.5m vs £22.6m at FY23. At this point, the excellent start to FY24 leads us to reiterate our FY24-26E revenue, adj EBITDA, EFCF, and DPS, and we include the April 2024 acquisition of Vertical Digital in our FY24-26E net cash, as we explain below. As Eleco builds upon the successful acquisition

An excellent win, momentum rebuilding

Made Tech has won a material expansion (worth up to £19.5m/2yrs) with a long-standing customer, The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (“DLUHC”). Coming off the back of a soft H1 bookings performance, we expect this win to materially boost investor sentiment and reassure how notwithstanding a tough backdrop (given an impending general election) MTEC continues to outcompete legacy providers and in-so-doing, grow its share of wallet with large/strategic customers. Landing near FY

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

LIBERUM: 1Spatial: Walk the talk and get SaaSy

Alphawave Semi - FY23 results, 1Q24 trading update

Following the updated guidance published last week, Alphawave reported a 74% YoY increase in revenue to US$321.7m for FY23 generating adjusted EBITDA of US$62.6m, up 34% YoY. As previewed, bookings in 1Q24 were strong at US$117.9m, up 20% YoY and ahead of guidance. The results release and conference call confirm that revised guidance mainly reflects a more conservative approach to revenue recognition under new CFO, Rahul Mathur, and an acceleration in the pace at which Alphawave is pivoting away

tinyBuild (TBLD LN) - Focused on H2 recovery

tinyBuild’s FY23 results confirmed a sharp drop in revenue and swing into adjusted EBITDA losses, as well as asset impairments and high cash burn. After already making $10m of annualised cost savings, the company continues to run-down its cash balance and now relies on a H2-weighted release schedule to reduce cash outflows.

LIBERUM: Cerillion: Continued strong trading in 1H

Morning Note – 23 April 2024

Pennant International - FY23 update and appointment

We view confirmation of market forecasts / PEN's February update as providing further validation for the company's strategy. Ongoing business streams (including the concluding stage of the Boeing / Apache contract) provide underpinning for forecasts for the current year and software-derived earnings as strategized look set to rise in FY24 with the launch of the company's GenS technology (well-regarded and long-established OmegaPS series update). Tuesday's statement from the Prime Minister ple

Synectics + (SNX, House Stock at 188p) - Positive AGM statement

To infinity…

Cerillion has announced a very solid update, as H1 sales and EBITDA are both up 10% y/y to £22.5m and £10.9m respectively, notwithstanding the exceptionally strong base period (sales and EBITDA +27% and +38% resp.). Results therefore point to continued strong customer demand, reflecting how Cerillion’s out-of-the-box product continues to resonate and gain adoption, particularly in a ‘budget conscious’ environment, by offering faster time to market, greater configurability and at a lower cost. Me

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Checkit - Signposting the path to profitability

In a tough trading environment, Checkit managed to grow FY24 revenue by 17% and reduce EBITDA losses by nearly half. The company has had a positive start to FY25 with new contract wins and the launch of a new module. Focus on growth from its existing customer base combined with strict cost control is helping Checkit to make steady progress towards its target of positive EBITDA and cash generation in FY27.

In-line H1, strategic initiatives advancing at pace

As reported in March, underlying EBITDA profitability improved to record levels despite FX headwinds. Further platform and proposition developments were completed, key steps on its digital roadmap, and it has already won 7 contracts YTD. Alongside planned growth in private membership, this will at least offset the loss of one contract. Forecasts are left unchanged today and, as member engagement throttles back up, FX headwinds ease, and proof points of digital efficiency emerge, markets should b