IQE’s revenues grew by 35% year-on-year during H120 to a record £89.9m, taking the group from a £1.9m adjusted operating loss in H119 to a £4.3m adjusted operating profit. We upgrade our FY20 estimates in line with management’s guidance. The resultant 15% revenue upgrade changes the outcome from a loss to £3.1m adjusted PBT.
Companies: IQE Plc
IQE has announced that it expects H120 revenues to be at least £85m. This is 27% higher than H119 and a record first half performance. Despite this encouraging start to the year, we leave our estimates unchanged given the prevailing uncertainty regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global handset demand.
IQE has released its audited FY19 results following the comprehensive trading update in March. We leave our estimates unchanged after the 6% revenue downgrade in March since in IQE’s case the impact of COVID-19 on global handset demand is likely to be softened by gaining share in both the wireless and photonics markets. While the full effect of the coronavirus on the global economy and thus on demand for IQE’s epitaxy remains to be seen, management notes that Q120 was slightly ahead of internal expectations and the outlook for Q220 remains positive.
Yesterday’s trading update confirms that IQE’s FY19 results will be in line with the revised guidance it provided in November when the full extent of the impact of the US-China trade war became visible. We have cut our FY20 revenue estimate by 6%. In IQE’s case the impact of COVID-19 on global handset demand is likely to be softened by gaining share in both the wireless and photonics markets. However, the full effect of the pandemic on the global economy and IQE’s business remains to be seen.
The breadth of IQE’s technology portfolio and ability to serve compound semiconductor chip customers in the US and Asia puts it in a good position to benefit from rising demand for compound semiconductor applications for 5G and connected devices. The share price has been hit by the shift to Asian-centric supply chains caused by US-Chinese trade tensions, and resultant reductions to management guidance. Although the timing of a recovery is difficult to gauge, we see scope for earnings recovery as IQE secures additional contracts in Asia and leverages its IP portfolio into sustainable profit growth and cash generation.
IQE’s reduced guidance for FY19 revenues of £136–142m (vs £140–160m previously) reflects primarily the greater than anticipated disruption to its major US wireless customers as a result of the US/China trade war. There is good evidence to support a recovery in the medium term: the qualification of products and tools in the Asian supply chain for both 3D sensing and wireless RF is encouraging, while exposure to 5G remains attractive. However, the timing of a recovery is difficult to gauge and with Q120 expected to be seasonally quiet we downgrade our FY19 and FY20 revenue estimates by 5.3% and 15% respectively, with FY19 EPS reduced from a 0.5p profit to a 0.8p loss and FY20 EPS reduced from 2.3p to 0.3p.
Diploma (DPLM LN, £1.9bn) FY19 results (30/09) – u/l rev growth 5% y/y vs. +7% y/y in FY18; adj. operating margin +30bps y/y from stronger GM and cost controls; adj. PBT +14% y/y; DPS +14% y/y; outlook expects “moderately lower underlying growth” from political & economic uncertainty to be offset by strong acquisition contributions | IQE (IQE LN, £609m) FY19 trading update revises down rev guidance by ~7% (mid-point), expecting “mid-single digit adj. operating loss”; expects seasonally weak Q1 2020 but “cautiously optimistic about a return to growth” | Eddie Stobart (ESL LN, £269m) may receive £75m rescue package from former boss Andrew Tinkler, adding an alternative to last week’s Dbay offer (source: FT.com) | Pressure Technologies (PRES LN, £19m) confirms commencement of trial relating to prosecution by HSE following fatal accident in June 2015 | Chamberlin (CMH LN, £2m) H1 20 interims (30/09) reports 26% y/y fall in revenues; op. loss pre-restructuring increased from £0.4m to £1.0m; expect better H2 due to higher volumes from existing automotive customers; new contracts and higher selling prices but anticipate small loss for FY20
Companies: DPLM IQE ESL PRES CMH
Uber announced earnings Monday that beat analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines for its third quarter of 2019. But the stock fell as much about 5% after the company reported over $1 billion in net losses, topping its $986 million loss during the same quarter last year. The loss includes $401 million in stock-based compensation. Following the results, in an interview with CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa on Monday, Khosrowshahi (CEO) said the company is targeting adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2021. We believe Mobility companies will continue to struggle to convince the capital markets until investors see the model proven.
Companies: TRAK AMO CPX IQE MIRI QTX SEE TCM TRCS TRMR
Intel’s share price rose 7% on Friday, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to all-time highs. Intel’ stellar quarter was supplemented by improved guidance and bullish commentary from the management on the strength of demand from cloud service providers, underscoring the theme of an ‘insatiable demand for data’. The semiconductor cycle appears to be back, in spite of recent warnings from TI.
Companies: ENET CML IQE TCM
The recent run-up in semiconductor stocks hit a speed bump Tuesday afternoon that could turn into much more. Texas Instruments gave a forecast that was much worse than expected in a Tuesday earnings report, raising questions over whether the cycle is anywhere near the trough as was widely expected.
Companies: ENET TRAK BGO BOKU CAPX CML EQLS IQE SEE TCM TRCS QTX XPP FIN NETW
IQE has acquired the third-party shareholdings in its CSDC joint venture in Singapore for a nominal fee. This gives it control of the operation, which is currently loss making, enabling it to restructure the business and focus it on emerging sales opportunities in Asia for molecular beam epitaxy (MBE)-based products. Short term, the deal has a negative impact on earnings. We reduce our FY19 and FY20 EPS estimates by 8% and 5%, respectively.
Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019. Pricing rumoured at 115p to 145p implying valuation of up to $1.8bn. Expected Oct 2019.
Companies: OSI CTP IQE MTFB SENS AVCT TGP PMI CMCL JLH
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LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.
Companies: LoopUp Group plc
Crimson Tide has reported a strong set of H1 results evidencing very strong sales momentum backed by long-term contracts and cash flow. H1 sales grew by 40% and EPS by 154%. Net cash has improved to £0.8m at June 2020 from nil at December 2019. The strategic focus on transportation and supermarkets is working well, partnerships are improving routes to market, and there is growing traction from investments in innovation. We have left our forecasts unchanged for now, but recognise positive pressure and have upgraded our target price from 3.1p to 4.3p. We reiterate our view that Crimson Tide’s valuation will be dictated by its ability to convert the significant opportunity rather than short-term metrics. H1 results show the group is nicely on track to do exactly that.
Companies: Crimson Tide Plc
ZOO has provided a short trading update to accompany its AGM which will be held later today. The business is performing well…double-digit revenue growth y/y across H1 is clearly a strong result given the market disruption, and is tracking very well towards our full-year figure. We make no changes to estimates (which we reinstated in July) but will consider revisiting them at the time of the H1 results in early November.
Companies: ZOO Digital Group Plc
Renalytix has officially commercially launched the KidneyIntelX testing platform with its launch partner Mount Sinai. The test is now fully integrated into the Mount Sinai health system, and goes beyond mere patient testing into a holistic approach to CKD patient support with Mount Sinai’s care delivery, physician education and support and billing pathways. This is a pivotal milestone for Renalytix triggering first commercial testing revenues, and was achieved in less than two years since Renalytix first IPOd in November 2018. It is estimated there are approx. 66,000 Diabetic kidney disease patients at the Mount Sinai health system, representing a significant initial addressable market opportunity. We continue to expect the launch and similar integrations of the KidneyIntelX platform into two further health care systems in FY’21. Simultaneously, Renalytix also announced agreements with LabCorp and an unnamed national medical logistics provider to use additional service centres to support the launch with the collection of blood samples at centres close to home or by primary physicians within the Mount Sinai system. Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the impact on physician visits, we believe this is beneficial and aids the use of KidneyIntelX to remotely monitor patients. This also provides a logistics framework to scale this process across multiple territories in the US.
Companies: Renalytix AI Plc
LoopUp recently unveiled a major extension to its ambitions – the group is aiming to become a leading global provider of telephony “inside” Microsoft’s Teams product. The opportunity is clear and growing, as enterprise customers look to use Teams for “normal” external phone calls, and LoopUp seems well placed to deliver a differentiated offering using its existing infrastructure and knowhow. In this document we provide an overview of the new platform and explain its strategic significance.
Actively managing the business successfully through the consequences of COVID-19, Ideagen finals to end April are in line with the May trading update and unchanged expectations: EBITDA of £18.5m as expected, revenue of £56.6m (£56.0mE originally), and robust free cash flow of £10.1m robust even after COVID restructuring costs, leading y/e net debt of £16.8m (0.9x net debt/EBITDA), as expected. Rapid and effective action to accommodate the consequences of lockdown maintained the quality of business, still achieving 5% organic growth, on top of three acquisitions in the period, to deliver 21% headline revenue growth. Once again, expectations were exceeded for recurring revenue, increasing from 74% at 1H20 to 76% (FY19: 67%): target recurring revenue had already been lifted from 75 to 80% by FY22 – and the horizon is now extended to 85% by FY23. FY19 acquisitions are all now integrated in line with the 72-step efficient process; organic growth is maintained even during a pandemic; trading since year end is robust; and the acquisition pipeline still remains active. With the success of the formula evident in its execution, and the benefit of future acquisitions unmodelled, we lift our target price to 235p (220p).
Companies: Ideagen Plc
The launch of LiveData Migrator with AWS represents another big step forward for WANdisco. Aside from diversifying the sales base, it suggests that the company’s technology is becoming the established way to migrate large, active datasets to the cloud. Disappointing H1 financials and a delay in the ramp of Azure revenue from Q3 to Q4 leads us to cut our FY20 forecasts. However, Q4 should see a big uplift in financial performance and our newly introduced FY21 forecasts see sales rising to $37m.
Companies: WANdisco Plc
Ocado’s strong show in the retail business (+52% yoy) is likely to normalise in the coming quarters but the company is well placed to gain retail market share in the UK. The on-boarding of M&S has also been smooth to date and we expect the company to clock healthy sales growth in FY21 as the capacity constraints are likely to be eased. Despite being a healthy business, we continue to see Ocado as an overvalued business.
Companies: Ocado Group Plc
Ideagen is a leading supplier of information management software, specialising in Integrated Risk Management (IRM) solutions to highly regulated industries. Consistently recognised in the Gartner Magic Quadrant since 2016 for its solution set, Ideagen has developed a best-of-breed IRM suite through a blend of internally driven R&D and strategic acquisitions, earning the group significant presence in its core markets. Our mantra remains that the three certainties in life are death, taxes and regulatory compliance – Ideagen is positioned to grow from strength to strength, as organisations worldwide are faced with increasingly demanding regulatory standards, and the requirement to provide a referenceable trail of accountability. As the group embarks on its twelfth consecutive year of growth, coupled with the potential upside of inevitable acquisitions, we believe Ideagen is poised for ongoing acceleration into the coming years.
The headline numbers in this morning's results are not new news, having already been flagged to the market in the company's update on August 13th. Rather, the new news is (1) cost-savings in excess of £1m, (2) post-period end contract wins which add around £2m to FY20E likely revenues, (3) breaking of some H1 logjams due to Covid, with key design reviews passed for General Dynamics and substantial invoices raised and paid. £2m net cash on the balance sheet previously flagged is confirmed, and the Absolute Data Group (ADG) acquisition has integrated well. With effective conversion of the Letter of Intent relating to a Middle East customer during H1, and additional orders from other clients, the company's expectation of uplift in H2 looks to be well underpinned. Clearly the company rolled with the Covid punches in the first half; however the £1m annualised savings look to be really helpful in supporting FY21E financials and the order book remains healthy (+9% since the year end). Frustratingly, the Major Programme previously announced in PEN's pipeline remains a waiting game; however, we would still see conversion as transformational.
Companies: Pennant International Group Plc
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 8.0p/£24.1m) | Corero Network Security (CNS.L, 8.25p/£40.8m) | Eagle Eye Solutions Group plc (EYE.L, 288p/£86.9m)
Companies: TERN CNS EYE
PTY's results this morning are in line with indications given by the company on July 20th, when the company announced anticipated gross revenues of £30m and a “modest” adjusted pre-tax profit, in line with the adjusted PBTA of £0.06m published this morning, and a significantly reduced reported pre-tax loss. As previously announced, the company succeeded in moving from net debt (£1.2m pre lease liabilities) to net cash, £0.7m, at the half year end. Cost-savings have been significant at £4.2m gross, £2.4m net, opening the door to the significant transformation undertaken by the company and creating a new and robust underlying platform which has been stress-tested by Covid. As expected, net revenues (net fee income) have reduced on the back of the Scottish Government contract exit, which was low-margin and in run-off. The company expects to achieve a full-year profit equivalent to >£0.1m PBTA posted in FY2019A and a notable feature of the results is that no more non-underlying costs are expected going forward, leading to prospective upside both adjusted and unadjusted.
Companies: Parity Group Plc
LoopUp has delivered a trading update for H1, highlighting some exceptionally strong activity during the COVID-19 lockdown period, which appears to be at least partly translating into longer-term outperformance. We materially upgrade our forecasts for 2020 and 2021, and look forward to additional detail at the late-July Operational Update webinar.
Concurrent has delivered a strong H1/20 trading performance during a volatile period, with revenue of £9.2m (H1/19: £9.5m). Though COVID-19 caused initial uncertainty around FY20 activity levels, Concurrent is a supplier to some of the world's most prominent defence companies in the UK and US and was thus designated an essential defence supplier. Activity levels therefore continued throughout COVID-19 lockdown, with the defence market representing 68% (H1/19: 58%) of revenue in the period. Following strong order intake during H1/20 (record order book in May 2020) we have increased our revenue expectations by £1.7m to £18.7m for FY20. With £10m cash and no debt Concurrent is continuing to invest in R&D and progress its plans to add new hardware and software product ranges into new markets such as AI, software and services.
Companies: Concurrent Technologies Plc
CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 4.5p/£19.9m) | Gfinity plc* (GFIN.L, 3.8p/£28.9m) | MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 44p/£38.7m) | Newmark Security plc* (NWT.L, 1.175p/£5.5m)
Companies: CPX GFIN MWE NWT