After a strong order intake in Q1, potential customers delayed placing orders in Q2, resulting in a 25% bookings decline in H120. Revenue increased 36% y-o-y and tight cost control reduced the EBITDA loss over the same period. Osirium has adapted its marketing and customer support to remote working and bookings intake has picked up in Q3, with five new customers signed. We have revised our forecasts to reflect lower bookings in FY20 and FY21; the impact at the EBITDA level is mitigated by tight cost control.
Companies: Osirium Technologies Plc
Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 72.5p/£6.5m) | Osirium Technologies plc (OSI.L 19p/£3.7m) | Corero Network Security plc (CNS.L, 11.0p/£54.7m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 7.7p/£23.2m)
Companies: MIRA OSI CNS TERN
Osirium’s FY19 results were broadly in line with forecasts. The company saw strong bookings growth in FY19 from a combination of new customers, renewals and expansion of existing contracts. The product suite was expanded to include privileged process automation and privileged endpoint management solutions. While COVID-19 disruption has not yet had a noticeable impact on demand, we are taking a more cautious approach to our bookings and revenue forecasts for FY20 before factoring in a reacceleration of growth in FY21.
Osirium provided an update on trading and the impact of COVID-19 on its business. To date, it has not seen a material effect and customers are continuing to renew their contracts. However, management is aware that new business could take longer to sign up and costs are being managed accordingly. The need for secure IT systems is as relevant as ever, particularly with the current dispersed nature of the workforce; combined with the high level of recurring revenues, this should help Osirium to manage its way through this period of disruption.
Abal Group (formerly on AIM) to relist as Supply@Me, a growing innovative "inventory monetisation" platform, having originated more than EUR300m of prospective "inventory monetisation deals" in its first six months of operating (to June 2018). In the first half of 2019, an additional prospective EUR300m was originated. As at the date of the publication of the Prospectus and Circular to Abal shareholders, dated 4 March 2020 , EUR972m of prospective contracts have been originated. Raising £2.2m. Due 23 March.
Companies: LIT SEE COG OSI BIRD ENET XSG EMAN BOTB NUOG
Inspecs, a UK designer, manufacturer and distributor of eyewear frames to global retail chains announces its intention to IPO onto AIM raising £94m with a market cap of £138m. Admission expected 27th February. FY Dec 2018 numbers show revenue of $57m and underlying EBITDA of $11m
Companies: IHC TRCS IMMO PHD STAF DMTR TLOU OSI IPEL BBB
Osirium made good progress in signing new business in H2, reporting FY19 bookings 13% ahead of our forecast and 53% higher year-on-year. FY19 revenue is slightly below our forecast due to the timing of multi-year bookings. With the proceeds of the recent fund raise, we expect the company to increase investment in headcount to accelerate growth. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the bookings intake, revenue recognition and higher staff costs.
Calisen Group. Potential Intention to Float. Owner and manager of essential energy infrastructure assets . Consolidated FY Dec 18 revenue £162.1m and operating profit £25.4m. Raising up to £300m in primary plus partial vendor sale. The Global Sustainable Farmland Income Trust will invest in a diversified portfolio of operational farmland assets located in major agricultural markets including the United States, Europe, New Zealand, Australia and certain countries within Latin and South America. Raising up to $300m. Due 28 February. Investment firm Nippon Active Value fund is seeking to raise up to £200m at an issue price of 100p per share via an IPO. The company aims to invest in a portfolio of quoted Japanese stocks with market capitalisations of up to $1bn. First day of dealings expected early February.
Companies: MJH FIPP PGH BOOM TPFG OSI D4T4 OMG SAV RMM
Netflix is raising another US$2 billion in debt to fund additional content creation and other expenses, the company announced on Monday. The company routinely raises debt to help fuel its growing library of original TV shows and movies. The streaming giant offered US$2 billion in new debt in April after issuing another round of notes several months earlier. Netflix said it plans to use the proceeds to fund "Content acquisitions, production and development, capital expenditures, investments, working capital and potential acquisitions and strategic transactions.". We’re unsurprised and anticipate the competition will also up their game to capture market share – all the better for the localisation market.
Companies: 7DIG KAPE ZOO AMO AVST CNS DFX ECSC FLX IGP NCC OSI MIRA
Osirium has announced three new contracts that cover a diverse range of verticals and use cases. These wins highlight the attraction of the ease of use of the platform and the value of the PxM Express offering as a route to market. The contracts support our order estimates for H219 and we leave our estimates unchanged.
Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019. Pricing rumoured at 115p to 145p implying valuation of up to $1.8bn. Expected Oct 2019.
Companies: OSI CTP IQE MTFB SENS AVCT TGP PMI CMCL JLH
Osirium won a number of new customers and saw a 100% renewal rate in H119. It has signed up its first customer for the recently launched privileged process automation solution and is due to launch its first endpoint privilege management solution in Q4. With a broader product range, it has the opportunity to win new customers in the wider privileged access security market and cross-sell to its existing customer base.
AMRYT PHARMA PLC— a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and delivering innovative new treatments to help improve the lives of patients with rare or orphan diseases have raised $60m before expenses and will relist on the AIM Market on the 25/09/2019. VAALCO Energy, Inc. (NYSE: EGY), an independent energy com pany focused on developm ent and production assets in West Africa, today announces its formal intention to seek a Standard Listing on the Main Market of London Stock Exchange ("LSE"), to complement its existing Listing on the New York Stock Exchange. Kaspi.kz, the largest Paym ents, Marketplace and Fintech Ecosystem in Kazakhstan w ith a leading m arket share in each of its key products and services, announces today the expected publication of a registration document that has been submitted for approval to the FCA and its potential intention, subject to market conditions, to undertake an initial public offering. Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019.
Companies: NAK GFIN CCS PHD MED OSI DDDD MWE THRU
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The H1 results are as announced in the October update; COVID delayed several new contracts until earlier this month, leaving H1 revenue at £5.1m. However, management remained comfortable with a FY sales forecast of £21.7m on the basis of a strong pipeline and the substantial tranche of annually renewed revenue billed each H2. Reassuringly, the new contracts have now been signed for both the Celebrus Customer Data Management (CDM) solution and the Celebrus Customer Data Platform (CDP), and they cover a range of verticals from financial services to automotive manufacture and ecommerce provision. With significant net cash, D4t4 is in a strong position for long-term sustainable growth on the back of rapidly growing global demand for CDP/CDM. It remains confident on prospects in new geographies (N America and APAC) and new use markets (fraud, risk analysis and healthcare) plus a high level of recurring revenue. Our forecasts and target price remain unchanged save for a tweak to cashflow and raised dividend expectation. We reiterate our 310p target price.
Companies: D4t4 Solutions plc
Interims, in line with the October trading update and unchanged forecasts, follow a second (November) purchase order from the new US Department of State contract, highlighting momentum. The 5Cs that form management’s measure of strategic development have all generated positives: colleagues, with employee NPS rising, and no furloughs or paycuts; new & renewing customers, high-profile names and sectors; a broadening channel including generating new clients; code increasing with the addition of FIDO and increased reach through MyID Enterprise/ MyID Professional; and cash of £8.1m with £4.8m debt all in the form of in-the-money December 2021 convertibles. Strong 1H performance and cashflow derisks full-year expectations. Target raised to 125p (100p).
Companies: Intercede Group plc
IQE has announced that the strong performance in H120, which resulted in record first-half revenue, has continued into the second half. It has updated FY20 revenue guidance from at least £165m to over £170m, with adjusted EBIT guidance remaining at the mid-single-digit million level. We have updated our FY20 and FY21 forecasts accordingly, giving adjusted PBT upgrades of 34% and 10% for FY20 and FY21 respectively.
Companies: IQE plc
LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.
Companies: LoopUp Group PLC
Eckoh’s fast growing US SecPay business and robust UK business model have minimised the impact of lockdowns with u/l H1 revs down just 3% yoy and profits flat. ECK reintroduces FY21 guidance, expecting H2 revenues comparable to H1 and FY21 AOP comparable to FY20. US SecPay is now a meaningful >30% group revs, growing 80% in H1 and with larger customers now re-engaging. We expect growth to continue in FY21 and beyond; the opportunity is multiples of current sales (FY21E $13m- +60% yoy). We similarly expect the cash cow UK business to continue to recover and return to c. 5% secular organic growth over time. It is especially continued success with US SecPay that is likely to lead to group FCF exceeding that of £5-6m achieved in FY20/19 over time and a FCF yield well above 5%. That’s attractive.
Companies: Eckoh plc
H1 Results: Ready to reinvest
Companies: First Property Group plc (FPO:LON)First Property Group plc (GXZ:BER)
After a challenging 2H21 for the events and traffic data business, Tracsis has delivered FY results to July in line with the reassuring August trading update. With £48m (FY19: £49.2m) revenue, the group has quantified an estimated £10m set back to COVID-affected activities within the Traffic & Data Services (T&DS) Division, implying underlying outperformance compared with expectations for the higher-margin Rail Technology & Services (RT&S) Division. Forecasts describe prospects: continuing growth in FY21 and FY22 for RT&S, with two major contracts identified in latter stage of negotiation; and a still hampered FY21 for events and traffic surveys within T&DS – but forecasts for FY22 show a return to an ex-COVID environment, regaining the original growth path. With £17.9m of cash (no debt) and delivering multiple fundamental elements of the UK rail ecosystem, Tracsis has weathered the storm better than expected, with organic and acquired growth prospects as strong as ever. Target 900p reiterated.
Companies: Tracsis plc
Earnings in H1A were better than flat and H2E has got off to a good start. Margins are up and so too is recurring revenue as proportion of total business. First half order deferrals are now materialising and renewals are positive. Free cash generation was strong and the outlook is positive. We see no fundamental reason for the recent share price underperformance and we reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Companies: Shearwater Group plc
Mirriad Advertising’s H120 numbers show strong top-line progress, up 109% on H119 and 26% ahead of H219. H120 revenues were up over 185% year-on-year in China and Singapore, with market confidence rebuilding. There are very promising new agreements in place with US media owners, with early moves in large adjacent markets, such as music video. There are advanced negotiations ongoing with Tier 1 entertainment platforms. These prospects significantly increase the attraction of Mirriad’s proposition to advertisers. Cash burn is now under £1m per month, with end-August cash of £13.3m (no debt). Market forecasts for FY20–22 are unchanged.
Companies: Mirriad Advertising plc
Sensyne Health (SENS.L): Research agreement with Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust | RenalytixAI (RENX.L): First Quarter results for 2021
Companies: Sensyne Health Plc (SENS:LON)Renalytix AI Plc (RENX:LON)
Nanoco has secured just under £1m grant funding for a life sciences project to develop a heavy metal-free quantum dot testing kit to detect COVID-19. The project will last 18 months and represents a potential third segment for generating future revenues in addition to established activities in sensing and display applications. We make minor adjustments to our estimates, although there is no impact on EBITDA or cash flow.
Companies: Nanoco Group PLC
Following Fonix successfully raising £45m through an oversubscribed IPO on 12 October, we initiate our coverage with a target price of 150p. The investment case is focused upon Fonix leveraging its proprietary, cloud-based platform to expand with existing clients and win new clients within a robust UK phone-paid services market. The structural strength of Fonix’s platform is demonstrated by Fonix experiencing no churn from major customers in the past six years, which reflects that Fonix benefits from strategic integration and strong relationships with its clients. Fonix’s FY20 gross profit and EBITDA grew by +22% and +36% respectively, and we conservatively forecast +11-12% EBITDA and EPS growth in FY21 and FY22. On 12m forward EV/EBITDA of 10x and an EFCF yield of 7%, Fonix looks considerably undervalued compared to AIM payment and finnCap Tech 40 peers that are trading on 12m fwd EV/EBITDA of 17-20x with 7-17% EBITDA growth, and EFCF yields of 1-3%. We base our 150p target price on 15x FY22 EV/EBITDA or a 5% FY22 EFCF yield, and look forward to Fonix’s trading update in early 2021.
Companies: Fonix Mobile PLC
The Panoply will report interims for the 6m to September on November 30th . The group reported a very robust Pre-Close Trading Update on 12th October, which stated that H1 revenues were not less than £20.5m, with LFL growth of +18% rising to over +50% on a reported basis. We note LFL growth was +10% in Q1 indicating an acceleration to comfortably over +20% in Q2. The group guided to Pre-IFRS16 EBITDA of not less than £2.4m, which is nearly triple the £0.9m reported in 1H19 and up not less than +25% LFL. This robust H1 performance firmly underpins guidance for LFL revenue growth of 10-15% and EBITDA growth in excess of this for FY21. The Panoply secured £25m of total contract wins in H1 and it also provided colour on the significant contract win for the Planning Inspectorate, while the recent launch of a managed service proposition at foundry4 Intelligent Automation led to contract wins for Kettering General Hospital, the University of Law, Linc Cymru and UCL. Kainos recently reported interims in which it stated public sector clients remain committed to key digital transformation programmes with particularly strong growth expected in healthcare; we believe this provides a positive read across to The Panoply. We have prepared our forecasts conservatively and believe the robust H1, strong contract momentum and positive market backdrop firmly underpin our FY expectations, with forecast risk to the upside.
Companies: Panoply Holdings Plc
In FY2019/20, organic recurring revenue growth (+8.5% despite a negative impact from COVID-19 in H2 19/20) and the organic operating margin (22.1% of revenue) were in line with guidance. The big disappointment was on 2020/21 guidance for the operating margin (up to 3pts below the FY2019/20 level depending on the amount of additional investments), the result of a significant slowdown in organic recurring revenue growth (+3-5% anticipated) and the acceleration in R&D to increase the cloud native growth rate in the medium term.
Companies: Sage Group plc
Immotion is a leading UK-based Virtual Reality (VR) experience provider. The group yesterday announced a successful £1.2m fundraise at 4p, a 5.3% premium to the previous day's closing price, to support the strength of demand being experienced for its new ‘Let's Explore Oceans' in-home VR entertainment offering.
Companies: Immotion Group Plc