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Machinations

  • 18 Jul 16

Topic of the quarter: Could Brexit be a positive for the UK Industrials sector? While the EU and UK are important to each other in terms of trade, the level of that importance is asymmetric: 44% of UK exports go to the EU and a further 10% go to countries with free trade agreements with the EU; only 15% of EU exports go to the UK. As a result, we feel that UK bargaining power is relatively weak and we need to accept the possibility that the UK drops out of the single market and trades under WTO terms with Europe. The extent to which this is a positive or negative for UK Industrials depends entirely on the value of Sterling versus the Euro or US Dollar. We analyse this and conclude that with a 7% (or greater) depreciation of Sterling (versus pre-Brexit levels), all the costs associated with WTO trade are more than compensated for. Big exporters become strategic winners and big foreign FX earners become financial winners. Largely domestic players are at risk. Export or die!