An opportunity missed - structural overhangs remain Vodafone''s first set of results under the new CEO neither delivered the kitchen sink (on FCF outlook and dividend) nor a more confident message on the strategy and outlook for the group that some were looking for. Instead, management provided a realistic outlook for FCF (FY24: GBP3.3bn) that disappointed vs consensus (GBP3.6bn) but leaving enough uncertainty as to whether this would rebound in FY25. With the dividend pay-out now c. 100% post restructuring costs, and certainly uncovered post any kind of normalised spectrum spend. Vodafone''s appeal as an investment remains more limited to shorter term event-focused investors, rather than the long-only community who may have been tempted to buy off the back of a dividend cut and de-risked FCF outlook. What do we know today that we didn''t on Monday? Vodafone have been conducting some trials on the transition of German TV customers from bulk to individual contracts, but their best efforts led to just 65% retention of TV subs in the first trial, and the second trial seeing only a fraction of this (retention rate). This all but confirms our fears over the high margin GBP800m revenue stream, that we think will weigh on German profitability and the FCF outlook into FY25 (Good times over?). KPI''s in Germany are expected to worsen in the coming quarters, consistent with the findings of our recent STAMP consumer survey work (Alarm bells still ringing), whilst group EBITDAaL trends (broadly stable target for FY24) will be back end weighted. Has the investment case changed? No. We cut estimates further as our PT falls to 70p Our thesis on Vodafone remains unchanged - price rises are only likely to offer temporary relief for a business that has seen their competitive position structurally undermined over the last few years, whilst idiosyncratic risks like the Nebenkostenprivileg in Germany remain underappreciated by consensus. The weak operating results...