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29 Mar 2023
Alarm bells still ringing

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Alarm bells still ringing
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD:LON) | 75.3 0.7 1.2% | Mkt Cap: 18,827m
- Published:
29 Mar 2023 -
Author:
McHugh Sam SM -
Pages:
50 -
In 2022 our annual proprietary STAMP survey highlighted several Warning Signs that led us to downgrade Vodafone to Underperform. In an accompanying report published today, STAMP ''23 we share the results of our 2023 survey. In this note we dig into the detailed findings for Vodafone.
The debate: consensus expects a rebound in commercial momentum and more MandA in 2023
Vodafone is embarking on its widest range of price increases in memory across their key European markets and consensus now credits Vodafone with a return to positive European service revenue growth in FY24 alongside a recovery in commercial momentum (broadband and mobile net-adds).
Vodafone Germany - still struggling, we anticipate further downgrades
Vodafone''s German customers have become a lot more price conscious and less satisfied with price of their service this year. Brand perception of Vod DE continues to deteriorate, whilst NPS scores are falling in broadband and lag mobile peers. Rising mobile churn indications for Vod DE suggest another step up in handset subsidies may be needed in FY24. Contrary to consensus, we no longer anticipate an inflection in German broadband net-adds and expect further weakness here and in mobile KPIs. Our German EBITDAaL estimates remain 10% below consensus in the medium term.
STAMP 2023 and Vodafone: Italy/Spain poor, new entrant risk in Portugal but UK strong
Vodafone is losing pricing power across almost all markets covered by our survey and the company scores poorly across key metrics leaving them a as a clear laggard in our 2023 survey. We remain materially below consensus on Vod Italy and Spain where their negotiating position in MandA remains undermined by poor operating prospects. Our work gives good reason to worry about new entrant risk in Portugal. The UK offers some relief for Vod, where STAMP results are more encouraging.
We cut our EU service revenue estimates by 1% and take medium term FCF down c .6%
With lower service revenue...