Vodafone''s operating performance remains under pressure following a disappointing performance in Germany (again), and we model 12% downside to FY25 consensus FCF. We are cautious ahead of a dividend reset and guidance-setting for a still-tough FY25 in May 2024. What did we learn that we did not know Friday? 1. Germany revenues likely to remain weak for some time. VOD should see better B2B revs in Q4 FY24, but the housing association drag kicks in then, so management merely expects flat Q4 FY24 revs in Germany despite an easier comp. In FY25, German rev growth is likely to remain under pressure before an eventual FY26 recovery. 2. B2B growth was very strong but with less EBITDA benefit. B2B growth should accelerate in Q4 FY24. However, the margin on some B2B revenue streams is low, so it is unclear how much of this will translate into EBITDA growth. 3. There was little news in terms of capital allocation, but it is clear that the new framework will be in place in May (we expect a ~50% divi cut and a framework for excess cash to be distributed). We believe this suggests a deadline of sorts for resolving the strategic review of Italy. Has our investment thesis changed? No With downside to consensus FCF forecasts and risk to the dividend, we continue to see the Vodafone equity story as more challenged than peers. Longer term we also believe that consensus has not yet captured the FCF-dilution from Spain exit, UK / potential Italy merger (at least initially), i.e. there might be further FCF downgrades from the portfolio reorganisation. That said, the shares have been weak since our downgrade, so we see this as more of a relative call at this point. Changes to estimates and valuation We make only minor forecast changes (FY25 EBITDA changes 1%) with a small cut to forecasts in Germany and a hike in UK/smaller markets. Vodafone shares are now trading on a FCF yield of 9% in FY25, but with downside to consensus this is unlikely to re-rate the shares.