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04 Feb 2021
Growth recovery, with B2B tailwinds

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Growth recovery, with B2B tailwinds
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD:LON) | 75.3 0.7 1.2% | Mkt Cap: 18,827m
- Published:
04 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Mills Joshua JM | McHugh Sam SM -
Pages:
8 -
Top line recovery, underpinned by strong B2B trends
Vodafone saw a marked improvement in organic service revenue trends this quarter (+0.4%/ -1.1% for group/ Europe vs. -0.4%/ -1.8% last quarter). Germany, the most important market, was particularly strong at +1% organic and the recovery in Spain also looks encouraging despite what continues to be a very promotional environment. This leaves management (and us) confident that European operation can return to growth later this year which we believe could catalyse a rerating; VOD now offers an 6% dividend yield and is one of the key ''COVID recovery'' names identified in our recent cross-sector report One to run with.
What do we know that we didn''t know on Tuesday?
B2B service revenue growth returned at +0.7% in the quarter vs a -0.2% decline in Q2, with B2B growing fixed service revenue +5.2%. This echoes our recent argument that Vodafone are one of the better placed operators to capture increased demand in the enterprise segment given their challenger positioning - management highlighted that this is particularly the case in Germany and the UK and will provide more detail at an upcoming investor briefing (March 18th). On Spanish consolidation, which has been in the headlines again recently, Vodafone stated that they are happy with their standalone progress (as evidenced by stabilising revenue and EBITDA trends) but would not rule out future deals. Management did note however that VOD Spain both extracts and provides benefits from being part of the broader European footprint, perhaps suggesting that a merger or JV structure is more likely than an outright sale of the asset.
Has the investment thesis changed?
These results and mgmt commentary support the investment case laid out in our original upgrade; improving top-line, ongoing cost savings, end of 5G spectrum auction and de-leveraging all drive a re-rating. This is likely to come to the fore in FY22, having suffered from a ''COVID delay'' in...