Vodafone FY25 FCF guidance was 2%+ ahead of consensus but we do not see the results materially changing the outlook for the business and leave our TP unchanged. The 3-market strategic review and capital allocation updates are behind, and the stock''s outlook simply hinges on whether Germany turns around or not. We believe the evidence on that front from H2 FY24 trends is at best mixed. What did we learn that we did not know on Monday? 1. Net adds in Germany remain poor with postpaid adds of 51k (Q3 95k), broadband -62k (Q3 -76k) and TV -653k (Q3 -136k). Ger EBITDAaL was also weak (-6% y/y). Service revenue trends were surprisingly strong (0.6% y/y) despite initial TV headwinds but mgmt. said this would turn negative (in FY25 ditto EBITDAaL). 2. UK also weaker than we expected with -9k postpaid subs and service revenue growth slowing 1.6pp to 3.6% y/y. But UK was not all bad: broadband adds were solid (50k) and EBITDAaL were both strong. VOD said UK rev growth would slow to low single digits on lower price hikes in FY25. 3. FCF for FY24 was better than expected (EUR2.6bn vs cons EUR2.4bn PF) but this was explained by EUR0.1bn German tax one-off and EUR0.1bn Spain recharges that will not recur. 4. Spain deal has now closed and VOD started the first EUR500m/qtr buyback today (May 15), equivalent to c.15% of daily volumes for the next 2 years. Has our investment thesis changed? No Trends in Germany remain weak and we cut EBITDA in Germany 1-2% for FY25-FY27. The sustainability of the better revenue trends is debatable in our view, given VOD will annualise price hikes in Q2 FY25 and KPIs remain weak. NPS scores are improving at VOD but they remain poor and are improving more at peers, as we showed in our recent STAMP analysis. Changes to estimates We update our model for the change in treatment of Italy/Spain, leading to a 6-9% adj FCF FY25-FY27 downgrade. The stock would be worth ~66p at an 8% post spectrum/restructuring FCFY, close to our SOTP of 65p.