We recently published STAMP 2024: (I Can''t Get No) Satisfaction surveying 20k consumers across our key markets with 100m cumulative datapoints. In this note, we dig into the detailed findings for Vodafone and in particular its German business (50% of OpFCF post Italy/Spain exit). The debate: Back to fundamentals With the three-market strategic review complete and the cash returns announcement out of the way, we believe the main driver for VOD from here on is once again the fundamental outlook for the group - and we are 8% below FY25 consensus FCF. The most important question in our view is whether VOD Ger can return to sustainable top-line and EBITDA growth (consensus expects Germany EBITDA -2.5% in FY25 but +4.7% in FY26). We believe this is likely to prove challenging. Vodafone Germany - no longer deteriorating but not improving either VOD Ger broadband trends have been the big disappointment in recent years, and at this point we do not see sufficient evidence that a stabilisation in the customer base is close, let alone a return to growth (we expect -200k broadband subs in FY25). Satisfaction with price and quality is down in broadband as is relative NPS, and churn intentions remain elevated. Mobile customer perceptions are better, but the brand is seen as moving down-market and lags on relative NPS. In the absence of a clear-cut recovery, we believe there will remain a question of whether VOD needs to step up investments into Germany to re-accelerate the business. There was no capex hike as part of the use of the EUR12bn disposal proceeds, but we believe the risk remains while VOD Ger struggles. Vodafone UK - better but price hikes have hurt customer perceptions VOD UK has been a healthier performer with a clear status as a B2C challenger in both mobile and broadband. This year it has seen a dip in customer perceptions on the back of outsized price hikes, and it remains to be seen if growth can be sustained as price tailwinds ease. More...