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09 Sep 2025
Gamma : Here comes the bounce - Buy
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Gamma : Here comes the bounce - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 994 -169 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 916.1m
- Published:
09 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
H1s look good on the initial eyeball test, with double-digit y-o-y growth on a number of P&L metrics, albeit this is partly acquisition-driven and underlying organic tends to be more in the 0%-5% range. There is a mass of small forecast tweaks but retained FY25-FY26 EBITDA guidance is great news, albeit with a mix shift for several numbers in consensus on ethernet pricing (£6m to FY26 gross profit, offset by c.£6m-£8m savings). We retain FY25E-FY26E EBITDA but push up FY25E EPS c.4% to reflect guidance, with the H2 requirement for our bottom-of-the-range numbers seemingly unchallenging.
The UK channel has slowed to marginal growth, which became apparent post-AGM update. Within this context, the basic story is OK volumes but mix shift creating some price pressure. Cloud PBX seat adds are lower than before though still growing (+c.2k average per month), but ARPU is down with Phoneline+ a larger part of the mix. Similarly, the SIP-to-hardware PBX decline is slowing, but mix shift to “SIP Cloud” solutions (i.e. third party cloud PBX) is an ARPU pressure. Against this, SIP-to-Teams volumes are a pleasant surprise, with portal architecture / “order journey” improved, while the full H2 launch of the “Cisco Collaboration Suite” (Webex, in soft launch since May) is important; management’s view of a level of success based on technical factors (i.e. network heritage) and simple unit economics seems credible.
Europe margin profile has transformed through Placetel / STARFACE, both of which are growing well, i.e. in the double digits. Given the recent travails of German competitors, Gamma looks a clear market share winner here.
The period since May has been shrouded in uncertainty, which the market hates, and with the shares pricing in a reasonably hefty downgrade, we now expect a material bounce. While there are certainly UK channel trends to watch, these are not feeding through to the group bottom line, and valuation looks completely anomalous for an asset of this quality, in our view.