Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC. We currently have 9 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
|17Jan17 03:47||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|22Dec16 12:38||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|15Dec16 12:10||RNS||Annual Report 2016 & Notice of AGM 2017|
|06Dec16 07:00||RNS||Thomas Cook takes full ownership of UK retail JV|
|02Dec16 05:27||RNS||Announcement of pricing of senior notes|
|01Dec16 04:04||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|28Nov16 09:19||RNS||Thomas Cook launches guaranteed bond|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
TCG benefiting from its asset-owner status
01 Dec 16
Strong underlying business in FY15/16 despite the fallout from terrorist activity TCG ended the year by producing sales broadly in line with FY15 (including FX tailwinds), showing a limited decrease (-0.3% reported, -4.5% lfl) in the light of the tough trading in Turkey (-7.4% impact), Egypt (-2%) and Tunisia (-1.3%) which were offset by a reactive shift of capacity to alternative and popular destinations (Spain in particular, +2.2% impact), including long-haul (+2.3%, including the US, Mexico, Cuba and Dominican Republic) while FX was also supportive (+5.9%). The underlying gross margin was up 80bp to over 23% with underlying EBIT at £308m, £3m ahead of the guidance issued as part of the Q3 16 results but £41m below last year’s due to Condor being weak (-470bp yoy) and the impact of terrorism in Belgium (-€10m impact on the underlying group EBIT at €308m). The UK (EBIT margin at 6.4%, +150bp) and Continental Europe (EBIT margin at 11%, +180bp) delivered record underlying EBIT margins despite a challenging Condor (EBIT margin from 5.1% to -0.8%), the group’s German airline (15.4% of group sales) which was heavily impacted by weak demand (disruption to key destinations and increasing competition over fewer routes). For the second year in a row, TCG showed a modest but positive net profit of £9m and a restart of the dividend policy (with a symbolic ordinary dividend at £0.005 per share) after five years of interruption. Encouraging winter trading and rebooting dividend Current trading is encouraging with 61% of the winter programme sold, slightly higher than last year. Group bookings are up 2% but pricing is down 2% given the tough comps from the UK and Northern European businesses. The UK business continues to perform well on the back of the expanded winter sun programme (new long-haul destinations including Cape Town and Tobago). Northern Europe should continue to be dragged down by the poor demand in Germany, and impacted by Turkey (-5% in bookings), while Condor is still hampered by poor yields due to overcapacity and weak demand. But differentiated and long-haul holidays experienced a 5% rise in prices. Summer 2017 shows strong pricing overall and bookings ahead of last year, despite being early in the booking cycle.
A tough summer in 2016
01 Aug 16
Thomas Cook reported its Q3 16 results: - Revenue was down 8% lfl with the impact of weak demand for Turkey (-8%), Tunisia and Egypt, which was partially offset by Spain and other destinations like the US and Cuba. Overall, the impact of the Brussels terrorist attack on Belgium is estimated to be £60m (-3%). - EBIT declined to £2m (vs £24m in Q3 15) due to the impact of the Belgian terrorist attacks and difficulties at Condor (German airline). - Summer 2016 bookings decreased 5% due to Turkey (+8% excluding Turkey, +6% in H1 16), 81% of packages are sold but prices declined (-3%). - Management downgraded its FY16 EBIT guidance from £310-335m to £300m (including a £32m forex impact).
Weak bookings ahead of the key summer 16 season
27 May 16
TCG is feeling the pain of the terrorist activity Thomas Cook last week reported its H1-16 results which were short of the the consensus and our expectations. The FY16 guidance has been revised down to the bottom end of expectations. As a result of the terrorist attacks in Turkey, Tunisia and Brussels, TCG warned that Summer 16 bookings (63% sold, -2% yoy) had fallen by 5% (up to 10% for Continental Europe, -6% in Germany). Demand for Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt has collapsed. Overall, the pricing pattern is negative yoy (except for differentiated holidays, in the UK notably) while the collapse in demand for Turkey has resulted in later bookings for the destination. Summer bookings on average have been made almost two weeks later than last year. Since TCG has been prioritising margins over volumes, the Group cut capacity by 4% at Group level. Strong Mediterranean destinations have not yet fully offset weak demand for Turkey Excluding these problematic destinations, demand for Spain (summer 16 bookings were up 14% yoy in the Balearics) and the Canaries (+23%) but also the US (+29%) and the Caribbean (Cuba and Mexico) soared while, excluding Turkey, bookings were up 6% yoy and 13% excluding Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia. The long-haul programme (bookings up 19% in the UK) has also been helpful in mitigaging the impact of North Africa along with the seat-only offering, although the latter has lower average selling prices than package holidays.
Resilient underlying performances despite terrorist activities
02 Mar 16
+Underlying demand in most source markets remained strong+ In Q1 16, revenues were up by 1% to £1.4bn (but -7.2% reported), largely driven by differentiated products (own-brands hotels up 24%) and the UK and Northern Europe while Continental Europe and Airlines Germany proved challenging. While TCH has been pushing for higher-quality packages, the gross margin improved by 20bp lfl in Q1 16. And the operating loss was cut by 11% to £16m, largely driven by the UK (-21% seasonal loss yoy). Management reiterated its confidence in repeating its FY15 profit guidance in 2016. +Popular winter sun business and upmarket package holidays+ The winter season (82% sold to date) experienced a 2% drop in volumes but margins went up, backed by higher prices (+4%). The UK benefited strongly from a successful winter sun strategy, particularly to long-haul destinations, with both charter risk and seat-only pricing up by 10%. In Continental Europe, seasonal loss expanded by £6m (reflecting a 90bp drop in the gross margin), resulting from overcapacity and weakening consumer confidence, impacting particularly Germany and Condor, TCG’s German airline (tough comps, -£7m drop in EBIT yoy). The latter was weakened by competitive pressure and weak demand in short- and medium-haul markets, despite the strong growth seen in long-haul destinations. However, France and Russia proved resilient despite economic downturns. + Geopolitical incidents disrupted the strong start to summer 2016, resulting in a 3% capacity cut for the season+ For the summer 2016 season, margins are up yoy and 29% of the programme is sold (2% lower than Q1 15). The recent geopolitical shocks (Tunisia, Paris, Egypt and Turkey) have disrupted the strong start of the season, impacting customer confidence and leading to a later booking pattern, with holidaymakers postponing their holidays. The group has been giving priority to margins rather than volumes. Pricing remains positive for package holidays in Northern Europe (+6%) and the UK (+4%, UK online sales up by 7% ytd). This was attenuated by a tough Continental Europe and Airlines Germany. The latter is highly competitive and has been affected by structural market and customer confidence issues. At the group level, summer 2016 bookings slipped by 5%, mainly attributable to the 3% capacity reduction. But despite the late booking market, TCG has been counting on a recovery in demand to maintain a good price level. Recent weeks of trading have pointed to a recovery in consumer confidence across almost all source markets.
Panmure Research - Thomas Cook Flash 24-09-15
24 Sep 15
Trading has progressed well over the Summer with UK and Northern Europe being particularly strong, offsetting continued challenges in Continental Europe. Overall 91% capacity sold with guidance unchanged since the reset in Q3. Looking forward, Winter 2015/2016 trading has started positively and is already a third sold with improved pricing. Also encouraging is the 38% increase in bookings to own branded hotels and 30% increase in bookings through its OneWeb platform thus providing evidence of the transformation towards exclusive content which bodes well for future price and margin progression. Additionally the company is still on track for the Fosun JV to become operational by the end of 2015 and will give a more detailed update on this and the hotel investment fund in November. We reiterate our Buy given the low valuation.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Retain forecasts for FY17E and FY18E
05 Oct 16
While LFL sales growth of 1.8% for the first 12 weeks of FY17 looked a little light, this was on the back of 2.8% growth in the prior period. H2 comps become easier to lap and Christmas bookings (festive trading comprises 15% of FY sales on average) are up 10% YoY.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
A year of expansion
17 Jan 17
Final results are broadly in line with our revised forecasts on most headline levels in what proved to be a difficult year for the Group. That said, it has significantly increased room capacity, which is now +40% ahead at the time of the IPO (+14.5% yoy), which improves its competitive position and offering. We are maintaining our headline forecasts, and with the dividend expected to be held for the foreseeable future producing an 8.7% yield with a NAV in excess of 180p, we continue to believe there is strong long term value offered at present.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 12-01-2017
12 Jan 17
As anticipated, the second half has again been stronger than H1 and results will be broadly in line with expectations. In line with this, the order book has continued to grow and is at record levels. This confirms that significant progress has been made in the Group’s shift towards its Technology Products division which, as targeted, contributed c.60% of group revenue in FY16. The small acquisition of Cable Power also gives a complementary boost to the product range. It is also worth noting the significant reduction in net debt, £1.0m ahead of our forecast. We remain supportive of the Group’s strategy and continue to see a bright future as this transition towards a design led technology solutions business continues. We look forward to more detail in March at the final results.