Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC. We currently have 11 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
|14Mar17 13:00||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|16Feb17 10:41||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|15Feb17 16:49||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|09Feb17 12:52||RNS||AGM Statement|
|09Feb17 07:00||RNS||First Quarter Results|
|17Jan17 15:45||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|22Dec16 12:38||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
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Research reports on
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
Q1 holding the line. But watch the UK
09 Feb 17
Summer bookings +9% with flat pricing is a reasonable position for this time of the year (programme 31% sold) although early bookings strength in the UK has waned, which needs to be monitored given increased onus on margins, already running at all-time highs. The Q1 loss is ‘in line’ and managements expect FY performance to be in line with current market expectations. The shares feel fully priced to us and a 50%+ rally post-Brexit leaves the risk/reward skewed to the downside. SELL. Conference call 8:30am.
Cautious stance for 2017 despite positive Q1
09 Feb 17
Figures in line with expectations but overcapacity in Spanish island resorts reduce visibility Thomas Cook started the FY16/17 year by reporting sales growth in line with our expectations. Sales were up 1%, fuelled by holidays to Greece, Spain and long-haul destinations. Own-brand hotels (10 new hotels due to be open for the Summer 17) and the selected partner strategy contributed to the +10bp improvement in the gross margin (+22.1%) with the seasonal EBIT loss reducing slightly yoy (by £1m to £49m) in this quieter quarter. In December, TCG issued a €750m bond (at 6.25% coupon, i.e. 150bp lower than the two bonds it replaces, maturing June 2022) with the next maturity of €800m (bank facility) postponed to 2018. But the statement was marked by a cautious stance for the rest of the year, adopted by management, warning about the uncertain political and economy outlook. Broadly positive winter season, Condor continued to feel the pain of tight competition in Germany With 82% of the programme sold to date (at par with Q1 16), bookings were up 1% (+5% excluding Turkey), offset by a 1% drop in prices, attributable to the tense price environment in the airline market. Bookings reflect the strong demand for Spain, several long-haul destinations (Dominican Republic), making up for the continued shift away from Turkish destinations. The Winter season benefited from strong UK (bookings up +5%), reflecting growing demand for package holidays (+9%, prices up +4%) and seat-only sales (+9%). Continental Europe (bookings down 3%, poor demand from Germany and Belgium for Turkey) improved slightly (differentiated products are behind the 2% rise in prices) and limited the damages caused by the loss-making Condor (German Airline, c.17% of sales, bookings down 1%, capacity cut of 5%, prices down 1%) which has been hampered by the intense competition in the German market (overcapacity in the Canaries in particular). The business has been under restructuring measures, the benefits of which are due to come through from H2 17. UK bookings coming under pressure from rivals in the Spanish island resorts At this early stage of the booking cycle, the Summer 17 season showed encouraging trading with bookings up 9% and prices in line with Q1 16. 31% of the programme is sold to date (2% above last year). The group counts on popular Greece, which is its “stand-out” destination (bookings up 40% in Q1 17, c.2.5m holidaymakers) along with smaller destinations in Europe (Cyprus, Bulgaria, Portugal and Croatia) to compensate for the weak demand for Turkey and Egypt for the key summer season. Current trading for the summer season is encouraging and was in line with expectations. Prices are holding tight in Continental Europe and Northern Europe and particularly in the UK (bookings up 1%, prices +2%). But the UK market may be hampered by the intensifying competition seen in Spanish islands (Majorca and the Canaries in particular), translating into a mix of hotel price inflation (up to 6-8% rise after surging demand last year) and increased air capacity. This pushed TCG to focus further on more profitable destinations and quality holidays rather than chasing volumes in the UK market (bookings up 1% overall). This is behind the slight drop in UK charter risk holiday bookings compared to last year while prices are up 9%.
TCG benefiting from its asset-owner status
01 Dec 16
Strong underlying business in FY15/16 despite the fallout from terrorist activity TCG ended the year by producing sales broadly in line with FY15 (including FX tailwinds), showing a limited decrease (-0.3% reported, -4.5% lfl) in the light of the tough trading in Turkey (-7.4% impact), Egypt (-2%) and Tunisia (-1.3%) which were offset by a reactive shift of capacity to alternative and popular destinations (Spain in particular, +2.2% impact), including long-haul (+2.3%, including the US, Mexico, Cuba and Dominican Republic) while FX was also supportive (+5.9%). The underlying gross margin was up 80bp to over 23% with underlying EBIT at £308m, £3m ahead of the guidance issued as part of the Q3 16 results but £41m below last year’s due to Condor being weak (-470bp yoy) and the impact of terrorism in Belgium (-€10m impact on the underlying group EBIT at €308m). The UK (EBIT margin at 6.4%, +150bp) and Continental Europe (EBIT margin at 11%, +180bp) delivered record underlying EBIT margins despite a challenging Condor (EBIT margin from 5.1% to -0.8%), the group’s German airline (15.4% of group sales) which was heavily impacted by weak demand (disruption to key destinations and increasing competition over fewer routes). For the second year in a row, TCG showed a modest but positive net profit of £9m and a restart of the dividend policy (with a symbolic ordinary dividend at £0.005 per share) after five years of interruption. Encouraging winter trading and rebooting dividend Current trading is encouraging with 61% of the winter programme sold, slightly higher than last year. Group bookings are up 2% but pricing is down 2% given the tough comps from the UK and Northern European businesses. The UK business continues to perform well on the back of the expanded winter sun programme (new long-haul destinations including Cape Town and Tobago). Northern Europe should continue to be dragged down by the poor demand in Germany, and impacted by Turkey (-5% in bookings), while Condor is still hampered by poor yields due to overcapacity and weak demand. But differentiated and long-haul holidays experienced a 5% rise in prices. Summer 2017 shows strong pricing overall and bookings ahead of last year, despite being early in the booking cycle.
A tough summer in 2016
01 Aug 16
Thomas Cook reported its Q3 16 results: - Revenue was down 8% lfl with the impact of weak demand for Turkey (-8%), Tunisia and Egypt, which was partially offset by Spain and other destinations like the US and Cuba. Overall, the impact of the Brussels terrorist attack on Belgium is estimated to be £60m (-3%). - EBIT declined to £2m (vs £24m in Q3 15) due to the impact of the Belgian terrorist attacks and difficulties at Condor (German airline). - Summer 2016 bookings decreased 5% due to Turkey (+8% excluding Turkey, +6% in H1 16), 81% of packages are sold but prices declined (-3%). - Management downgraded its FY16 EBIT guidance from £310-335m to £300m (including a £32m forex impact).
Weak bookings ahead of the key summer 16 season
27 May 16
TCG is feeling the pain of the terrorist activity Thomas Cook last week reported its H1-16 results which were short of the the consensus and our expectations. The FY16 guidance has been revised down to the bottom end of expectations. As a result of the terrorist attacks in Turkey, Tunisia and Brussels, TCG warned that Summer 16 bookings (63% sold, -2% yoy) had fallen by 5% (up to 10% for Continental Europe, -6% in Germany). Demand for Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt has collapsed. Overall, the pricing pattern is negative yoy (except for differentiated holidays, in the UK notably) while the collapse in demand for Turkey has resulted in later bookings for the destination. Summer bookings on average have been made almost two weeks later than last year. Since TCG has been prioritising margins over volumes, the Group cut capacity by 4% at Group level. Strong Mediterranean destinations have not yet fully offset weak demand for Turkey Excluding these problematic destinations, demand for Spain (summer 16 bookings were up 14% yoy in the Balearics) and the Canaries (+23%) but also the US (+29%) and the Caribbean (Cuba and Mexico) soared while, excluding Turkey, bookings were up 6% yoy and 13% excluding Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia. The long-haul programme (bookings up 19% in the UK) has also been helpful in mitigaging the impact of North Africa along with the seat-only offering, although the latter has lower average selling prices than package holidays.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-03-2017
21 Mar 17
accesso Technology (ACSO LN) Full year results in line, but key trading months still ahead | Augean (AUG LN) Double digit growth in ’16, good start to ‘17 | Earthport (EPO LN) Interims show continued top line strength | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) Good momentum under new team. It’s now all about delivery | IQE (IQE LN) FY’16 results prompt further upgrades | Microsaic Systems (MSYS LN) Challenges in 2016, strategy remains in place | mporium Group (MPM LN) Funds raised to help execute strategy | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Dawn of the independents | ScS Group (SCS LN) Strong progress on key growth initiatives albeit comps now toughen | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) FY results: EBITDA ahead, Instalift™ gaining pace | Vectura Group (VEC LN) FY (9-month) results
N+1 Singer - ScS Group - Strong progress on key growth initiatives albeit comps now toughen
21 Mar 17
Whilst interim results are complicated by timing differences around order deliveries (flattery of c£1.9m) and rephasing of marketing (drag of c£1.9m), adjusted EBITDA improved by c£1.7m on an underlying basis – moving ScS into positive territory in its historically loss-making first half. Good progress was made on all 4 growth strategies and it maintained its 5-star score on Trustpilot. Whilst LFL order intake is down c5-6% in current trading, this reflects weak retail park footfall in Feb (not a conversion issue) and it has seen an improvement since the start of March. This means it is on track to meet FY expectations. Reassuring dynamics on margins & costs may add to investor relief, with the shares on <2x EV/EBITDA.
Strong set of full-year results, comforting guidance
23 Mar 17
GVC released a solid set of full-year results. Key highlights Pro forma Net Gaming Revenue (NGR) was up 12% at constant currency, or 9% on a reported basis at €895m, in line with the February trading update. Pro forma clean EBITDA was up 26%, at €205.7m, bang in line with AV’s €206m forecasts, translating a three percentage points increase in margin added to the growth in revenue. c.69% of NGR was derived from markets either regulated (including those in the process of regulating) and/or locally taxed (68% in 2015), while 95% of the revenues were derived from GVC’s proprietary platform. Net debt stood at €131.5m or 0.6x clean EBITDA. The board proposed a second special dividend of €0.15, giving a total dividend of €0.30 per share for the year, beating market expectations. Guidance The start of 2017 seems promising as management said that daily NGR had increased by 15% (+16% cc), translating into an 18% (+19% cc) growth in sports labels’ daily NGR and a 6% (+8% cc) increase in games labels’ daily NGR. The gross win margin reached 9.5% while it should move towards the 10% mark on the long term. Regarding dividends, the group confirmed a progressive distribution policy and expects to distribute at least 50% of the group’s free cash flow, starting from 2017. Debt refinancing In the first quarter of 2017, the group issued a €320m Senior Secured Term and Revolving Facility, composed of a €250m term loan (maturity 6 years) and a €70m revolving credit facility (maturity 5 years) used to pay down the Nomura Loan in full.
N+1 Singer - Goals Soccer Centres - Good momentum under new team. It’s now all about delivery
21 Mar 17
2016 finals have come in marginally below consensus PBT forecasts but this should not detract from positive operational and strategic momentum. There is still much work to do, but the tenor of the results is encouraging and management signals a good start to FY17. The main surprise is news of a third USA site opening. We tweak our FY17/18 PBT forecast up by 2% and stay at Buy on recovery grounds with a 140p 12m TP.
Interim results confirm solid peak Pier trading
21 Mar 17
1H results demonstrate positive progress in both divisions, with a solid first peak trading contribution from the Pier and rationalisation/stabilisation of the Bars business. Trading is expected to remain in-line with market expectations, with management reiterating ambitions for further strategic acquisitions of experiential leisure sites. Our underlying forecasts are substantially unchanged, save for a one-off lower tax rate boosting FY17 EPS. BUY, 150p target price.