Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC. We currently have 11 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
|16Feb17 10:41||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|15Feb17 16:49||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|09Feb17 12:52||RNS||AGM Statement|
|09Feb17 07:00||RNS||First Quarter Results|
|17Jan17 15:45||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|22Dec16 12:38||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|15Dec16 12:10||RNS||Annual Report 2016 & Notice of AGM 2017|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
Cautious stance for 2017 despite positive Q1
09 Feb 17
Figures in line with expectations but overcapacity in Spanish island resorts reduce visibility Thomas Cook started the FY16/17 year by reporting sales growth in line with our expectations. Sales were up 1%, fuelled by holidays to Greece, Spain and long-haul destinations. Own-brand hotels (10 new hotels due to be open for the Summer 17) and the selected partner strategy contributed to the +10bp improvement in the gross margin (+22.1%) with the seasonal EBIT loss reducing slightly yoy (by £1m to £49m) in this quieter quarter. In December, TCG issued a €750m bond (at 6.25% coupon, i.e. 150bp lower than the two bonds it replaces, maturing June 2022) with the next maturity of €800m (bank facility) postponed to 2018. But the statement was marked by a cautious stance for the rest of the year, adopted by management, warning about the uncertain political and economy outlook. Broadly positive winter season, Condor continued to feel the pain of tight competition in Germany With 82% of the programme sold to date (at par with Q1 16), bookings were up 1% (+5% excluding Turkey), offset by a 1% drop in prices, attributable to the tense price environment in the airline market. Bookings reflect the strong demand for Spain, several long-haul destinations (Dominican Republic), making up for the continued shift away from Turkish destinations. The Winter season benefited from strong UK (bookings up +5%), reflecting growing demand for package holidays (+9%, prices up +4%) and seat-only sales (+9%). Continental Europe (bookings down 3%, poor demand from Germany and Belgium for Turkey) improved slightly (differentiated products are behind the 2% rise in prices) and limited the damages caused by the loss-making Condor (German Airline, c.17% of sales, bookings down 1%, capacity cut of 5%, prices down 1%) which has been hampered by the intense competition in the German market (overcapacity in the Canaries in particular). The business has been under restructuring measures, the benefits of which are due to come through from H2 17. UK bookings coming under pressure from rivals in the Spanish island resorts At this early stage of the booking cycle, the Summer 17 season showed encouraging trading with bookings up 9% and prices in line with Q1 16. 31% of the programme is sold to date (2% above last year). The group counts on popular Greece, which is its “stand-out” destination (bookings up 40% in Q1 17, c.2.5m holidaymakers) along with smaller destinations in Europe (Cyprus, Bulgaria, Portugal and Croatia) to compensate for the weak demand for Turkey and Egypt for the key summer season. Current trading for the summer season is encouraging and was in line with expectations. Prices are holding tight in Continental Europe and Northern Europe and particularly in the UK (bookings up 1%, prices +2%). But the UK market may be hampered by the intensifying competition seen in Spanish islands (Majorca and the Canaries in particular), translating into a mix of hotel price inflation (up to 6-8% rise after surging demand last year) and increased air capacity. This pushed TCG to focus further on more profitable destinations and quality holidays rather than chasing volumes in the UK market (bookings up 1% overall). This is behind the slight drop in UK charter risk holiday bookings compared to last year while prices are up 9%.
Q1 holding the line. But watch the UK
09 Feb 17
Summer bookings +9% with flat pricing is a reasonable position for this time of the year (programme 31% sold) although early bookings strength in the UK has waned, which needs to be monitored given increased onus on margins, already running at all-time highs. The Q1 loss is ‘in line’ and managements expect FY performance to be in line with current market expectations. The shares feel fully priced to us and a 50%+ rally post-Brexit leaves the risk/reward skewed to the downside. SELL. Conference call 8:30am.
TCG benefiting from its asset-owner status
01 Dec 16
Strong underlying business in FY15/16 despite the fallout from terrorist activity TCG ended the year by producing sales broadly in line with FY15 (including FX tailwinds), showing a limited decrease (-0.3% reported, -4.5% lfl) in the light of the tough trading in Turkey (-7.4% impact), Egypt (-2%) and Tunisia (-1.3%) which were offset by a reactive shift of capacity to alternative and popular destinations (Spain in particular, +2.2% impact), including long-haul (+2.3%, including the US, Mexico, Cuba and Dominican Republic) while FX was also supportive (+5.9%). The underlying gross margin was up 80bp to over 23% with underlying EBIT at £308m, £3m ahead of the guidance issued as part of the Q3 16 results but £41m below last year’s due to Condor being weak (-470bp yoy) and the impact of terrorism in Belgium (-€10m impact on the underlying group EBIT at €308m). The UK (EBIT margin at 6.4%, +150bp) and Continental Europe (EBIT margin at 11%, +180bp) delivered record underlying EBIT margins despite a challenging Condor (EBIT margin from 5.1% to -0.8%), the group’s German airline (15.4% of group sales) which was heavily impacted by weak demand (disruption to key destinations and increasing competition over fewer routes). For the second year in a row, TCG showed a modest but positive net profit of £9m and a restart of the dividend policy (with a symbolic ordinary dividend at £0.005 per share) after five years of interruption. Encouraging winter trading and rebooting dividend Current trading is encouraging with 61% of the winter programme sold, slightly higher than last year. Group bookings are up 2% but pricing is down 2% given the tough comps from the UK and Northern European businesses. The UK business continues to perform well on the back of the expanded winter sun programme (new long-haul destinations including Cape Town and Tobago). Northern Europe should continue to be dragged down by the poor demand in Germany, and impacted by Turkey (-5% in bookings), while Condor is still hampered by poor yields due to overcapacity and weak demand. But differentiated and long-haul holidays experienced a 5% rise in prices. Summer 2017 shows strong pricing overall and bookings ahead of last year, despite being early in the booking cycle.
A tough summer in 2016
01 Aug 16
Thomas Cook reported its Q3 16 results: - Revenue was down 8% lfl with the impact of weak demand for Turkey (-8%), Tunisia and Egypt, which was partially offset by Spain and other destinations like the US and Cuba. Overall, the impact of the Brussels terrorist attack on Belgium is estimated to be £60m (-3%). - EBIT declined to £2m (vs £24m in Q3 15) due to the impact of the Belgian terrorist attacks and difficulties at Condor (German airline). - Summer 2016 bookings decreased 5% due to Turkey (+8% excluding Turkey, +6% in H1 16), 81% of packages are sold but prices declined (-3%). - Management downgraded its FY16 EBIT guidance from £310-335m to £300m (including a £32m forex impact).
Weak bookings ahead of the key summer 16 season
27 May 16
TCG is feeling the pain of the terrorist activity Thomas Cook last week reported its H1-16 results which were short of the the consensus and our expectations. The FY16 guidance has been revised down to the bottom end of expectations. As a result of the terrorist attacks in Turkey, Tunisia and Brussels, TCG warned that Summer 16 bookings (63% sold, -2% yoy) had fallen by 5% (up to 10% for Continental Europe, -6% in Germany). Demand for Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt has collapsed. Overall, the pricing pattern is negative yoy (except for differentiated holidays, in the UK notably) while the collapse in demand for Turkey has resulted in later bookings for the destination. Summer bookings on average have been made almost two weeks later than last year. Since TCG has been prioritising margins over volumes, the Group cut capacity by 4% at Group level. Strong Mediterranean destinations have not yet fully offset weak demand for Turkey Excluding these problematic destinations, demand for Spain (summer 16 bookings were up 14% yoy in the Balearics) and the Canaries (+23%) but also the US (+29%) and the Caribbean (Cuba and Mexico) soared while, excluding Turkey, bookings were up 6% yoy and 13% excluding Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia. The long-haul programme (bookings up 19% in the UK) has also been helpful in mitigaging the impact of North Africa along with the seat-only offering, although the latter has lower average selling prices than package holidays.
20 Feb 17
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The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 22-02-2017
22 Feb 17
CORETX (COR LN) Contract wins and new Lifestyle facility | Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) Solid Q1 trading plus earnings enhancing acquisition of StingRay Optics | NCC Group (NCC LN) Further issues in Assurance | PCI-PAL (PCIP LN) Strong H1 underpins positive outlook | UBM (UBM LN) Results | Verona Pharma (VRP LN) Phase IIa RPL554 add-on trial to tiotropium commenced
Panmure Morning Note 19-01-2017
19 Jan 17
Pets at Home have released a Q3 trading update this morning that will disappoint the market. Group like-for-like revenue growth was just +0.1% through 3Q16 as subdued trading across the Merchandise business weighed on continued strong growth in Veterinary Services. Profit outlook for FY17 remains in line with expectations. Suspect the shares will come under pressure.
Acceptance of all-cash offer by Kindred Group
23 Feb 17
32Red has agreed an all cash takeover by Kindred, at 196p per share. Together with an approved 4p dividend, this represents a 32.4% premium to last month’s average. This equates to 10.6x EV/EBITDA and 14.3x P/E for 2017, a small premium to the larger peer group. Given 32Red’s brand strength, regulated bias and growth momentum, this appears justified.
N+1 Singer - Gym Group - Not quite a lean, fit & healthy outlook
15 Feb 17
Gym Group has done an excellent job in successfully rolling out a disruptive business model in the health & fitness market. However, we think growth expectations are too high and the shares look expensive on a FY17 P/E of 27x. We expect initial signs of increased competition / cannibalisation and LFL pressure to increase over the next 2-3 years and the shares to de-rate. We pitch our forecasts 5%-14% below consensus and initiate with a Sell recommendation and a 145p target price.