Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC. We currently have 8 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
|06Dec16 07:00||RNS||Thomas Cook takes full ownership of UK retail JV|
|02Dec16 05:27||RNS||Announcement of pricing of senior notes|
|01Dec16 04:04||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|28Nov16 09:19||RNS||Thomas Cook launches guaranteed bond|
|28Nov16 07:00||RNS||Annual Financial Report|
|23Nov16 07:00||RNS||Full Year Results 2016|
|21Nov16 03:14||RNS||Directorate announcement under LR 9.6 11(3)|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC
TCG benefiting from its asset-owner status
01 Dec 16
Strong underlying business in FY15/16 despite the fallout from terrorist activity TCG ended the year by producing sales broadly in line with FY15 (including FX tailwinds), showing a limited decrease (-0.3% reported, -4.5% lfl) in the light of the tough trading in Turkey (-7.4% impact), Egypt (-2%) and Tunisia (-1.3%) which were offset by a reactive shift of capacity to alternative and popular destinations (Spain in particular, +2.2% impact), including long-haul (+2.3%, including the US, Mexico, Cuba and Dominican Republic) while FX was also supportive (+5.9%). The underlying gross margin was up 80bp to over 23% with underlying EBIT at £308m, £3m ahead of the guidance issued as part of the Q3 16 results but £41m below last year’s due to Condor being weak (-470bp yoy) and the impact of terrorism in Belgium (-€10m impact on the underlying group EBIT at €308m). The UK (EBIT margin at 6.4%, +150bp) and Continental Europe (EBIT margin at 11%, +180bp) delivered record underlying EBIT margins despite a challenging Condor (EBIT margin from 5.1% to -0.8%), the group’s German airline (15.4% of group sales) which was heavily impacted by weak demand (disruption to key destinations and increasing competition over fewer routes). For the second year in a row, TCG showed a modest but positive net profit of £9m and a restart of the dividend policy (with a symbolic ordinary dividend at £0.005 per share) after five years of interruption. Encouraging winter trading and rebooting dividend Current trading is encouraging with 61% of the winter programme sold, slightly higher than last year. Group bookings are up 2% but pricing is down 2% given the tough comps from the UK and Northern European businesses. The UK business continues to perform well on the back of the expanded winter sun programme (new long-haul destinations including Cape Town and Tobago). Northern Europe should continue to be dragged down by the poor demand in Germany, and impacted by Turkey (-5% in bookings), while Condor is still hampered by poor yields due to overcapacity and weak demand. But differentiated and long-haul holidays experienced a 5% rise in prices. Summer 2017 shows strong pricing overall and bookings ahead of last year, despite being early in the booking cycle.
A tough summer in 2016
01 Aug 16
Thomas Cook reported its Q3 16 results: - Revenue was down 8% lfl with the impact of weak demand for Turkey (-8%), Tunisia and Egypt, which was partially offset by Spain and other destinations like the US and Cuba. Overall, the impact of the Brussels terrorist attack on Belgium is estimated to be £60m (-3%). - EBIT declined to £2m (vs £24m in Q3 15) due to the impact of the Belgian terrorist attacks and difficulties at Condor (German airline). - Summer 2016 bookings decreased 5% due to Turkey (+8% excluding Turkey, +6% in H1 16), 81% of packages are sold but prices declined (-3%). - Management downgraded its FY16 EBIT guidance from £310-335m to £300m (including a £32m forex impact).
Weak bookings ahead of the key summer 16 season
27 May 16
TCG is feeling the pain of the terrorist activity Thomas Cook last week reported its H1-16 results which were short of the the consensus and our expectations. The FY16 guidance has been revised down to the bottom end of expectations. As a result of the terrorist attacks in Turkey, Tunisia and Brussels, TCG warned that Summer 16 bookings (63% sold, -2% yoy) had fallen by 5% (up to 10% for Continental Europe, -6% in Germany). Demand for Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt has collapsed. Overall, the pricing pattern is negative yoy (except for differentiated holidays, in the UK notably) while the collapse in demand for Turkey has resulted in later bookings for the destination. Summer bookings on average have been made almost two weeks later than last year. Since TCG has been prioritising margins over volumes, the Group cut capacity by 4% at Group level. Strong Mediterranean destinations have not yet fully offset weak demand for Turkey Excluding these problematic destinations, demand for Spain (summer 16 bookings were up 14% yoy in the Balearics) and the Canaries (+23%) but also the US (+29%) and the Caribbean (Cuba and Mexico) soared while, excluding Turkey, bookings were up 6% yoy and 13% excluding Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia. The long-haul programme (bookings up 19% in the UK) has also been helpful in mitigaging the impact of North Africa along with the seat-only offering, although the latter has lower average selling prices than package holidays.
Resilient underlying performances despite terrorist activities
02 Mar 16
+Underlying demand in most source markets remained strong+ In Q1 16, revenues were up by 1% to £1.4bn (but -7.2% reported), largely driven by differentiated products (own-brands hotels up 24%) and the UK and Northern Europe while Continental Europe and Airlines Germany proved challenging. While TCH has been pushing for higher-quality packages, the gross margin improved by 20bp lfl in Q1 16. And the operating loss was cut by 11% to £16m, largely driven by the UK (-21% seasonal loss yoy). Management reiterated its confidence in repeating its FY15 profit guidance in 2016. +Popular winter sun business and upmarket package holidays+ The winter season (82% sold to date) experienced a 2% drop in volumes but margins went up, backed by higher prices (+4%). The UK benefited strongly from a successful winter sun strategy, particularly to long-haul destinations, with both charter risk and seat-only pricing up by 10%. In Continental Europe, seasonal loss expanded by £6m (reflecting a 90bp drop in the gross margin), resulting from overcapacity and weakening consumer confidence, impacting particularly Germany and Condor, TCG’s German airline (tough comps, -£7m drop in EBIT yoy). The latter was weakened by competitive pressure and weak demand in short- and medium-haul markets, despite the strong growth seen in long-haul destinations. However, France and Russia proved resilient despite economic downturns. + Geopolitical incidents disrupted the strong start to summer 2016, resulting in a 3% capacity cut for the season+ For the summer 2016 season, margins are up yoy and 29% of the programme is sold (2% lower than Q1 15). The recent geopolitical shocks (Tunisia, Paris, Egypt and Turkey) have disrupted the strong start of the season, impacting customer confidence and leading to a later booking pattern, with holidaymakers postponing their holidays. The group has been giving priority to margins rather than volumes. Pricing remains positive for package holidays in Northern Europe (+6%) and the UK (+4%, UK online sales up by 7% ytd). This was attenuated by a tough Continental Europe and Airlines Germany. The latter is highly competitive and has been affected by structural market and customer confidence issues. At the group level, summer 2016 bookings slipped by 5%, mainly attributable to the 3% capacity reduction. But despite the late booking market, TCG has been counting on a recovery in demand to maintain a good price level. Recent weeks of trading have pointed to a recovery in consumer confidence across almost all source markets.
Panmure Research - Thomas Cook Flash 24-09-15
24 Sep 15
Trading has progressed well over the Summer with UK and Northern Europe being particularly strong, offsetting continued challenges in Continental Europe. Overall 91% capacity sold with guidance unchanged since the reset in Q3. Looking forward, Winter 2015/2016 trading has started positively and is already a third sold with improved pricing. Also encouraging is the 38% increase in bookings to own branded hotels and 30% increase in bookings through its OneWeb platform thus providing evidence of the transformation towards exclusive content which bodes well for future price and margin progression. Additionally the company is still on track for the Fosun JV to become operational by the end of 2015 and will give a more detailed update on this and the hotel investment fund in November. We reiterate our Buy given the low valuation.
Poor outlook in Germany impacts performance
22 Sep 15
Q3 15 group revenues grew by 0.2% LFL (-12% reported), hit by FX moves and a later booking profile (in Germany in particular) and weaker demand, as already highlighted in H1 15. Summer 2015 trends were impacted by terrorist events in Tunisia and macro issues in Greece and came below our expectations with a respective 1% and 3% slip in bookings in the UK and Continental Europe, while pricing power remained low in these regions (-1% in rates in the UK, flat in CE). Northern Europe was better (flat volumes, +2% in rates), as was Airlines Germany (+8% in bookings) which benefited from increased capacity (+7%) but prices remained weak (+1%) in the light of lower fuel prices. The group was well hedged and has passed this on to customers. For information, fuel-related costs were £820m in 2014 while TCG expects to be more than £200m less in FY16. Underlying EBIT improved by £5m LFL to £30m resulting from improved operating performances in every market (EBIT +7% LFL in the UK), except for Airlines Germany (tough comps) and also from cost efficiencies (-2% LFL). The underlying EBIT margin remained flat in Q3 to 1.5% yoy but rose from 3.4% to 4.1% over the last 12 months. Reported EBIT turned from a £42m loss last year to a £3m profit in Q3. We anticipate that in Q4 15, efforts that are currently being made by TCG on the operating front should help the group to attenuate the impact of the poor summer 2015 demand after recent terrorist attacks in Tunisia (15,000 holidaymakers were repatriated on c.60 flights) and the political and economic issues in Greece. The latter will impact FY15 EBIT by around £25m (o/w £20m due to Tunisia, £5m due to Greece). The group warned that if Foreign Office advice remains negative and if demand does not return to a normal level, then FY16 figures were likely to be impacted, without indicating the magnitude of the loss on profits. Sales to Tunisian holidays have been suspended until February 2016 (TCG counts c.14 branded hotels in Tunisia). Also, TCG said that unfavourable FX movements (the appreciation of sterling against the euro and the Swedish krona) should cut FY15 EBIT by £39m (vs £25m assumed in H1 15).
05 Dec 16
These interims show LPEs by is ahead of its plan to recruit 360 LPEs by April 2017 and is making impressive progress in Australia. The statement (and we expect the results presentation) provide considerable evidence of Purplebricks’ progress in building its brand, increasing its LPE footprint, developing its technology, creating engaging marketing and selling properties. We leave our forecasts unchanged. Investor confidence in Purplebricks’ ability to deliver sustainable profitable growth should result in share price appreciation towards a valuation based on its results for the year ended April 2019.
Successfully engaging players
06 Dec 16
Stride has a clear focus on online bingo and soft gaming and is growing rapidly, with FY16 l-f-l revenue up 22%. The acquisitions of Tarco and 8Ball at the end of FY16 doubled its share of the UK bingo-led market from 5% to 10% and should deliver material synergies from FY17. Our unchanged FY17 estimates are for 11% EPS growth and strong cash generation. We expect organic growth to be augmented by further accretive acquisitions in due course. Stride’s FY17 P/E is 10.3x and the calendarised EV/EBITDA is only 7.1x, implying considerable share price upside potential.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m