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Ferrovial posted its Q1 results, missing the consensus EBITDA estimate by 12%. Traffic at its MLs is already above the 2019 level (except for LBJ) but it is still behind at 407ETR due to the low voluntary return to office. Heathrow saw a sharp increase in traffic in March after the unexpectedly quick removal of UK travel restrictions, but Heathrow’s management believes this recovery to be temporary. The construction business was impacted by inflation and saw its EBITDA margin halved.
Companies: Ferrovial (FER:BME)Ferrovial, S.A. (FER:MCE)
Ferrovial announced better than expected FY results, with the bottom-line figures positively impacted by disposals and impairments. The recovery at managed lanes is good but 407ETR and Airports continue to suffer. Ferrovial has divested the majority of its Services business, divested non-core construction activities, increased its stake in I-66, acquired a minority stake in IRB, and has proposed a total scrip dividend of €0.715/share.
While the motorway (407ETR in particular) and airport concessions continue to struggle, Ferrovial has managed to reduce its losses in H1 21, largely due to a robust construction sector and a recovery in the Services activities. With limited cash inflow from its crown assets – 407ETR and Heathrow, all eyes are mainly on the divestment of the Services activities.
Ferrovial posted weak Q1 results, with its crown assets – 407 ETR and Heathrow still under pressure from travel restrictions. However, the managed lanes in the US have seen a sharp recovery in traffic after the upliftment of restrictions on 10 March, with traffic on the NTE35W for Q1 even above the 2019 level. Construction and Services businesses continue to show resilience with margin improvements.
Ferrovial reported top-line figures which were better than expected due to the favourable construction market. However, the slower traffic recovery, especially on its motorways, led to lower equity-accounted contributions. Ferrovial expects traffic to recover soon on its motorways once the situation is normal and anticipates a 67% yoy increase in traffic at Heathrow, but has not provided any further quantifiable guidance. It has completed divestments worth €501m, and has proposed a total scrip d
Ferrovial continues to be impacted by low traffic on its infrastructure, as reflected in the low income and dividends from these assets (-40% yoy). Additionally, management reassured that there is a limited risk of a Heathrow capital injection.
Revenues were up by 11% lfl courtesy of the construction business which benefited from a low comparison base. However, NI was unsurprisingly low due to a negative contribution from equity-accounted assets and discontinued business. We will revise our num
Companies: Ferrovial, S.A.
Ferrovial posted lfl growth of 12.2% on the back of a weak comparison base. The net result, which includes the equity-accounted result, stood at €-379m (vs €-6m in H1 19). Heathrow has a strong cash position but AGS is suffering and may require an equity injection. All toll roads except LBJ are well above the dividend lockup ratio. LBJ might join this club too if Ferrovial executes a favourable refinancing. Lastly, Ferrovial sold a 5% stake in Budimex but should retain the rest.
Ferrovial announced Q1 20 results showing significant growth in the construction business and a stable contribution from managed lanes. EBITDA was affected by the €-39m restructuring provision and the bottom-line was significantly affected by the weak airport assets. Ferrovial is financially stable with Heathrow capable of surviving 12 months with no revenues.
Ferrovial Group has published its consolidated results which came in better than our expectations but broadly in line with the consensus. The Toll Roads segment outperformed our expectations, while the losses in Construction were greater than anticipated due to an additional standalone loss of €-49m reported by Ferrovial Agroman. The possibility of Heathrow’s expansion has diminished, yet management has expressed its interest of keeping its stake in this asset. The company has proposed a scrip d
Principal infrastructure assets maintained their robust performance.
Following this earnings release, we will rework our model. We expect a minor upward change to our target price and no change in our recommendation.
There was a strong operating performance from the main infra assets. Indeed, US managed lanes’ EBITDA grew strongly, namely by 45.4% for NTE and 23.7% for LBJ, while ETR 407 posted a 7.1% increase. Finally, Heathrow registered a 7% increase and 3.9% increase excluding IFRS 16.
Following this earnings release, we will keep our recommendation unchanged.
The key highlight of this publication is the €-345m provision in Construction for potential future losses in US projects where delays in design approvals imply prices cannot be signed off with subcontractors.
Following this press release, we will sharply reduce our profit forecasts due to the €-345m provision in construction, which will eat up most of the profit that had been expected in FY19.
Following the announcement that the Services division is to be divested, management explained that the strategy is to refocus on the infrastructure business and mainly in high complexity concessions.
We have to dig deeper into the numbers as the reclassification of the Services division as a held-for-sale divestment blurs the picture but, as a first assessment, we would say that we have to decrease our valuation moderately.
Management has decided to classify as “held for sale” all of its services activities. This decision is the result of the strategic move to focus on the development of its infrastructure business.
As management was not willing to share a range for divestment proceeds, we do not yet know whether the €3bn proceeds in our model is a good assessment or not. Hence we will not change our forecast and we will keep our positive recommendation.
Ferrovial announced in mid-October that it has hired an adviser to explore the potential sale of its Services unit in whole or in part or even not at all.
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