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  • 12 Jan 21
THE MONTHLY January 2021

Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.

Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW

  • 26 Jan 21
Record - AUME now over $70bn

Record’s assets under management (AUME) reached over $70bn for the first time at the end of December, reflecting a combination of net flows and market, foreign exchange and scaling moves in Q321. The pattern of flows has increased the diversity of revenues while the benefits of initiatives to increase the breadth of product offering are yet to come; the launch of the Currency Impact Fund is due soon and a pipeline of other potential products is in development, supported by technology investment.

Companies: Record plc
  • 28 Jan 21
Belvoir Group - Consistent profit growth continues

In a positive year-end update, Belvoir has detailed FY 2020 sales growth was +12% and performance for the year including PBT will be comfortably ahead of management’s expectations. We have upgraded our FY 2020E EPS by +6.5% to forecast +19% EPS growth in FY 2020E, but leave our FY 2021 estimates onwards unchanged for now, recognising the macro uncertainty. However, given Belvoir is set to report 24 years of consistent profit growth after successfully seeing off the 2007 financial crisis, 2019 ban on tenant fees and now the COVID-19 pandemic, we highlight there is good potential for future upgrades. The FY 2021E P/E of only 11.1x, dividend yield 4.3% and free cash flow yield 9.2% significantly undervalue the power of Belvoir’s franchise model and its management ability (both evidenced by the track record), as well as the long-term growth potential.

Companies: Belvoir Group PLC
  • 26 Jan 21
Cenkos: Personal Group Holdings Plc -- Robust FY20 delivery

Personal Group's trading update indicates delivery of a solid FY20E result, an outcome better than expected earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic, reflective of the group's robust recurring revenues. Strategic progress has been made in the year with new client wins, greater diversification and Sage Employee Benefits (SEB) now moving to a paid-for model. The short-term outlook for FY21 is uncertain, given reduced new Insurance sales this year, however we view this as a temporary headwind resulting from lockdown restrictions, which will be lifted in time. With evidence of traction across the group, we remain positive, but current uncertainty (lockdowns, claims etc) means we maintain an U/R recommendation.

Companies: Personal Group Holdings Plc
  • 22 Jan 21
Secure Trust Bank - Reassuring pre-close

Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) pre-close update confirms the upbeat trends evident in its Q3 update in November. The strong lending rebound continued into Q4, loan repayment holidays are at low levels, and the balance sheet has remained robust and liquid. STB reiterated that its FY20 PBT would be well ahead of £9.7m (we forecast £13.0m). However, the new COVID-19 restrictions introduced in December 2020 have affected consumer loan demand into 2021, as well as the Motor Finance business. Management expects to be better placed to disclose its outlook for FY21 when STB’s FY20 results are released on 25 March. Our forecasts (FY21 PBT £31.6m, ROE 9.1%) and fair value (1,756p per share) remain unchanged.

Companies: Secure Trust Bank Plc
  • 20 Jan 21
City of London Investment Group (CLIG LN) - FuM doubles to US$ 11 billion

What’s new: Ahead of the publication of the Group’s interims results for the six months to 31 December 2020, CLIG has released a detailed trading update which reveals:  Group consolidated FuM of US$11.0 billion (£8.0 billion), which is twice the FuM of US$5.5 billion (£4.4 billion) at the Group’s year end on 30 June 2020;  The merger with Karpus Management Inc ("KMI") added c US$3.6 billion from 1 October 2020;  Investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies was “strong”, following “significant discount narrowing” and “good NAV performance”;  Rebalancing of client portfolios resulted in US$ 290 million of net outflows.

Companies: City of London Investment Group PLC
  • 21 Jan 21
Finals in line, primed to make strong progress in 2021

Finals (9mths to Sep-20) are in line with expectations. Recurring fee income from 3rd party AuM (incl. PRSR) ensured solid profitability. The balance sheet is well resourced with £26m to develop seed assets. With a positive outlook following the launch of the £1bn JV with EQT, we see accelerating returns over the medium term. PRSR is also on track to materially complete the initial 5,200 portfolio this year. Sigma trades below our 200p+/share intrinsic valuation – which attributes no value to AuM growth, which is a strategic priority.

Companies: Sigma Capital Group plc
  • 22 Jan 21
Vietnam Enterprise Investments - The Vietnam growth story continues

Vietnam Enterprise Investments (VEIL) is the largest and longest-established Vietnamese equities closed-end fund. The last quarter of 2019 and most of 2020 marked a period of portfolio repositioning for the fund. The team sold 14 holdings, and bought two, making the portfolio more focused (28 stocks at end 2020 versus 41 at end Q319) but better balanced by market cap as well as domestic and international business exposure. Over H220 the performance has picked up, with NAV total return of 28% versus 24% for the VN Index, after marginally lagging the benchmark over the past three years. The trust is well positioned for longer-term investors looking for an exposure to the fast-growing Vietnamese economy via a relatively large and liquid listed equities vehicle.

Companies: Vietnam Enterprise Investments
  • 22 Jan 21
Volta Finance - Well-positioned for a recovery scenario

Volta Finance (VTA) posted a 5.7% decrease in NAV in 2020, recovering from the initial 32.4% drop in March. This was mainly supported by CLO equity tranches posting solid monthly returns in November and December 2020 at +11.0% and 9.7%, respectively. Volta had anticipated a downturn for some time and repositioned its portfolio into CLO equity over the last two years. During the early-2020 market turmoil, Volta’s manager focused on securing liquidity by fully deleveraging the portfolio and implementing cost-cutting initiatives. In December, Volta introduced a dividend policy to pay 8% of its NAV (in line with historical yields), which currently implies a prospective 9.2% yield on the share price.

Companies: Volta Finance
  • 25 Jan 21
Double discount on quality-focused portfolio

AVI Global Trust (AGT) offers a genuinely different investment approach to those of competing trusts in the AIC’s global sector. It also has a good track record of beating its performance benchmark, the MSCI All Countries World ex the United States Index, with dividends reinvested and translated back into pounds. Some well-timed trades and a willingness to look through the current COVID-19 disruption affecting some businesses have helped drive strong performance from AGT over the past few months. The trust’s shares are on an attractive discount, 10.3% at close of business on 22 January 2021, and it is itself invested in a portfolio of high-quality family holding companies, closed-end funds and cash/asset-rich Japanese securities, which collectively trade at a weighted average discount of 30.1% (as at 18 January 2021) to the value of their underlying assets. The manager sees numerous catalysts to unlock value from AGT’s portfolio over 2021.

Companies: Avi Global Trust
  • 26 Jan 21
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust - ‘Perfectly rational to do nothing if you are unsure’

Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) is celebrating its 20th anniversary under the management of Nick Train. While underperforming in recent months, the trust is ahead of the broad UK market over the last one, three, five and 10 years. Stock market volatility in 2020 afforded the manager an opportunity to add another new name to the fund, credit bureau Experian, which he considers a rare example of a globally significant UK company that is benefiting from the optimisation of its vast database. Train is sticking to his tried-and-tested process that incorporates three rules of thumb: ‘if a company’s products taste good, buy the shares; the world will never be bored of being informed or entertained; and the pros are always too cautious about the stock market’.

Companies: Finsbury Growth & Income Trust
  • 11 Jan 21
Small Cap Feast

Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.

Companies: SAG DXRX CALL BBSN ASTO DNL FIPP IIG GROW TCN

  • 21 Jan 21
Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust - Reaping rewards from three-step process

Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust’s (MNP’s) manager Zehrid Osmani reports that his ongoing focus on long-term structural, sustainable business models was beneficial for the fund’s performance during the coronavirus-led market sell-off in Q120, with portfolio companies undertaking measures to protect their brand equity. He is encouraged by a general increase in investor awareness of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, an area of research that Martin Currie has focused on for several years, as he believes that ESG improvements can lead to higher total returns for shareholders. MNP’s performance has improved since the appointment of Osmani in October 2018, and its NAV is now ahead of its benchmark over the last one, three, five and 10 years.

Companies: Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust
  • 27 Jan 21
Jupiter Green Investment Trust Plc* - High growth from sustainability solutions


Companies: Jupiter Green Investment Trust
  • 20 Jan 21
Extension of advisory agreement with Sigma

The PRS REIT (“PRSR”) has announced that it has extended its investment advisory agreement with Sigma Capital. The agreement previously had a 5 year minimum term (with 12m notice) to 31st May 2022. This has now been extended to 31st December 2025 – an additional three and a half years. There are also some changes to the upper tiers of the fee structure, although these do not impact the REIT as the tiers do not apply at its current size. The extension ensures that PRSR will retain access to Sigma’s proven delivery model and pipeline should it raise additional capital, which has delivered >3,100 homes to date with visibility on 5,200 overall.

Companies: PRS REIT Plc