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  • Open: N/A
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  • 52 Week: 1431/2659p
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  • Daily Liquidity: (0.00%)
  • # Shares: 0.74m
  • Market Cap: £10.6m
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  • 12 Jan 21
THE MONTHLY January 2021

Although 2020 will probably go down in history as one of the most challenging years experienced during our lifetime, it will also likely be chronicled as one of the best years for the recognition and appreciation of science. As we entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was in its infancy. However, it rapidly evolved through the exponential rise in infections and mortality globally. Much has been achieved during the past 12 months in the fight against COVID-19, but, as we enter 2021, there are considerable concerns about the emergence of a mutant version of the virus and the second wave that we are now facing.

Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW

  • 11 Jan 21
Sustained inflows and performance propel AuM

AuM grew by +43% (+16% organic) to £29.4bn in Q3. Investment performance was strong (+£2.5bn) as COVID vaccine news propelled markets. Net inflows were maintained qoq (£792m). Sustainable was the stand out performer (+24%). AuM has broken through £30bn post-period end. Better than expected AuM drives +3% FY21e EPS and +5% in outer years. Continued distribution efforts in Sustainable, Global Equity and Multi-Asset funds stands to catalyse earnings. Alongside flow momentum, 12x FY22e PER is not reflecting this upside.

Companies: Liontrust Asset Management PLC
  • 12 Jan 21
Small Cap Feast

Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC Due mid Jan. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. Due 14 Jan. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb.

Companies: IUG CBP KAT APP RST DIS NICL BOKU CNIC HE1

  • 15 Jan 21
Capital deployment continues: £16m asset in Wirral

Urban Logistics REIT (“REIT”) has acquired another high quality “last mile” asset in the Wirral for £16.3m (5.0% NIY). The 169k sqft site is let to a subsidiary of Culina. It is leased through to 2032 and has clear rental progression, with an uplift on commencement of a reversionary lease in 2022 and a rent review in 2027. 99% rents for the Jan-Mar quarter have already been collected – highlighting the resilience in the tenant base/income. We do not change forecasts, already assuming full deployment by year end. We estimate that c.£75m capital capacity remains. We note a 6%+ dividend yield in FY22e – a 12m period of full capital deployment – and note that the discount ignores embedded NAV growth potential.

Companies: Urban Logistics REIT plc
  • 14 Jan 21
Examining the discount rate

Hipgnosis Songs Fund, is independently valued by Massarsky, who in December chose to reduce the discount rate on the revenues generated by the portfolio from 9% to 8.5%, due to strong evidence of growth in streaming numbers and the stable nature of the revenue stream. This produced a NAV of 125.35p as at the 30 September interim period end. It is worth noting the recent publication of significant changes in the discount rate as announced by Professor Aswath Damodaran of the Stern Business School in New York for the Entertainment Industry to 4.82% from 7.83% in January 2020. Combined with recent evidence that music streaming revenues in 2020 are now larger than the entire music market in 2016, we believe this is an encouraging backdrop for potential further reductions in the discount rate being applied by Massarsky going forward

Companies: Hipgnosis Songs Fund C Shares
  • 14 Jan 21
Henderson Opportunities Trust - Enthusiastically esoteric UK equity portfolio

Henderson Opportunities Trust (HOT) has performed strongly since experiencing sharp NAV and share price declines in the Q120 market sell-off, powering to the top of the AIC UK All Companies sector over the past 12 months with an NAV total return of c 40% in the second half of 2020. Managers James Henderson and Laura Foll say performance has benefited from holding a number of ‘next-generation leaders’ in the UK. The portfolio is esoteric in its make-up and seeks to avoid being overly exposed to trends in the global and domestic economy. The managers continue to see good value opportunities across the UK market, particularly on AIM, and say their intention to maintain gearing at a ‘decent’ level (c 10–15%) is indicative of feeling the portfolio and market offer good value.

Companies: Henderson Opportunities Trust
  • 14 Jan 21
Small Cap Feast

Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb. Moonpig, the digital greeting card company, is planning an IPO with a potential valuation of £1bln, according to multiple media reports. Further details expected to be announced over the next two weeks.

Companies: ZPHR PANR PRSM SENS CYAN G4M ITX CRCL FEN ZIN

  • 14 Jan 21
CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities - Remaining positive on the market

CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities (CCPEOL) has achieved a total NAV return of 1.9% (target 8% annual return) in the last 12 months. Its index outperformance was helped by sector rotation early in the COVID-19 crisis and by staying positive on the market. The manager sees the greatest opportunity in the upper CCC and lower B segments and in structured finance. CCPEOL remains optimistic in the credit opportunities segment, despite the market recovery. It expects 2021 will bring more leveraged loan issuance from broader industrial segments, thus providing greater investment prospects. Portfolio resilience led CCPEOL to raise its annual dividend from 4p/4c per share to 4.5p/4.5c in September 2020.

Companies: CVC Credit Partners Europn Opprtnity
  • 19 Jan 21
Allied Minds - CEO steps down, now a board-led company

Allied Minds has announced that Joe Pignato has decided to step down as CEO and from the board with immediate effect. However, he will continue to support the company as CFO for an interim period as the board continues its search for a permanent CFO. As part of a streamlining process, Allied Minds will now become a board-led company with no immediate intention to appoint a new CEO. The chairman and NEDs (experienced VCs and private company investors) will represent Allied Minds on portfolio company boards (including Federated Wireless, BridgeComm and Spin Memory) with an intention to accelerate realisations where possible.

Companies: Allied Minds PLC
  • 22 Sep 20
Cenkos: Personal Group Holdings Plc -- Resilience through turbulent times

Interim results demonstrate YoY growth and a resilient outcome that has exceeded management's expectations from the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is testament to the degree of recurring revenue generated across the business. FY21 trading looks to be more challenging, as notably lower new insurance sales post-lockdown will translate into lower premium income. A number of organic opportunities are being worked on to fill the shortfall. Rising UK redundancies and their impact on policyholder retentions creates great uncertainty, hence our forecasts remain withdrawn and recommendation remains Under Review.

Companies: Personal Group Holdings Plc
  • 07 Jan 21
This time next year Rodney...

I once sat through a three-hour performance of Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot at the Theatre Royal which, despite the best efforts of Ian McKellen and Patrick Stewart – both of whom I like very much – to this day remains one of the dreariest experiences of my life. It is on that note that we welcome 2021, with all the promise it holds, and return to our ‘top picks’ for 2020, a year which is probably best summarised (for those of us lucky enough to have been not directly impacted by the virus) by the Lord Chamberlain’s censor in his review of the first performance of Godot in 1955 – in which he described having to ‘endure hours [and hours] of angry boredom’. As always, these ‘picks’ do not represent advice, and should in no way be relied upon as such; they have been chosen on a lighthearted basis with no thought given to their suitability for your personal circumstances.

Companies: TFG IPU IEM HOT OCI BRWM JRS RICA BHMG BRLA JMI GPM MINI SMT

  • 06 Jan 21
Trident Royalties plc - Spearing value in the diversified royalty space

Trident Royalties plc is a relatively new royalty and streaming company focused on building a diversified portfolio of royalty assets to broadly mirror the mining sector. Unlike the majority of other royalty companies which are focused on gold/silver in the Americas, Trident’s aim is to unearth value with low-cost acquisitions across multiple commodities in tier 1 and lower risk mining jurisdictions. Acquisition of the Pukaqaqa royalty marks the 6th transaction since listing on AIM in June 2020 reflecting the company’s fast-paced growth strategy. TRR's shares are up over 100% since IPO. Trident is superbly positioned to exploit the gap in the royalty/streaming space. With producing cash-generative royalties already under its belt and an active pipeline of new opportunities, Trident is firmly pursuing an aggressive yet disciplined growth trajectory. Scale will bring higher royalty income, increased diversity and lower risk, the convergence of which should help unlock premium valuation multiples. In the current volatile markets, picking individual mining equities is challenging but Trident offers ground-floor entry into what looks likely to become a major royalty player in London. We have analysed the evolution of royalty peers and investing early appears to be the key. We see TRR’s current share price and value as unchallenging versus peers given the company is already a significant revenue generator. We initiate coverage with a 47p/sh price target.

Companies: Trident Royalties Plc
  • 12 Nov 20
90% of Q4 rent collected, sales above book values

RLE’s recent updates address two concerns expressed by investors: security of rent and the reliability of appraised asset values. Rent collection is arguably the key measure of portfolio performance for a REIT, particularly in a period of uncertainty and on that basis the first update is reassuring. It confirmed 89.92% collection of rent due for the September quarter (Oct-Dec), including monthly and deferred agreements, broadly in line with the two prior quarters at the same stage. That provides evidence of tenants’ ability to deliver, the durability of RLE’s rental income (and dividend cover) and demonstrates management’s ability to influence events in the short term. The second announcement relates to the sale of properties for £9.725m, all at prices at or above book value. These disposals, some of which will complete in FY21 will reduce net debt and put the group in a strong position to capitalise upon opportunities to acquire assets, which meet its criteria, at attractive prices in a distressed market.

Companies: Real Estate Investors plc
  • 16 Dec 20
Redde Northgate (REDD LN) - Attractive platform for growth

Redde Northgate has come through the COVID crisis in very good shape so far. We expect minimal impact on the former Northgate business from “lockdown 2.0”, a strong recovery in profits and a re-rating as normality returns and Redde reverts to mean. We could see further useful earnings upside from acquisitions such as Nationwide and revenue synergies not yet included. The Group is transforming itself into a mobility business which is higher returning, more diversified and has sustainable compounding growth prospects.

Companies: Redde Northgate PLC
  • 08 Jan 21
Small Cap Feast

Upon Admission to AIM, Nightcap will acquire The London Cocktail Club Limited (the "London Cocktail Club"), which is an award winning independent operator of ten individually themed cocktail bars in nine London locations and one location in Bristol. Offer TBC. HSS Hire Group, HSS.L transfer from Main to Aim. Mkt Cap c. £70m. Recently raised £52.6m. Leading supplier of tool and equipment for hire in the United Kingdom and Ireland and has provided equipment hire services in the United Kingdom for more than 60 years, primarily focusing on the B2B market. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange.

Companies: PMI RMM SUN BOIL ITM TRMR MLVN 88E IME ANP