Gabelli Value Plus+ (GVP) aims to achieve strong total returns through investment in a portfolio primarily of US equities. Managed by GAMCO, GVP utilises a disciplined proprietary investment philosophy known as Private Market Value with a Catalyst™. As we discuss under portfolio, this investment process focuses on both the intrinsic value and strategic premium that a company offers to a potential informed buyer. The team of over 40 analysts look to evaluate and understand stocks from a bottom-up perspective, and identify such opportunities where they also believe there exists a catalyst to drive this value realisation. A continuation vote will take place on 30/07/2020, and shareholder votes must be submitted before 28/07/2020. If the shareholders vote in favour of continuation, it is proposed that the trust could adopt new policies regarding an enhanced dividend payout, as we discuss under the Dividend section. This would significantly enhance the levels of distributions were it to be adopted. Similarly, proposals supporting continuation suggest a lower management fee be adopted (see Charges), and that buybacks be undertaken if the discount exceeds 10%. As we detail under Discount, the board in the previous financial year had in any event tended to support the share price with buybacks when the discount widened past this level. Performance has been undoubtedly challenging, with both the small cap and value factors, which the trust’s process inherently lends itself to, facing severe headwinds over most of the period since the trust’s launch. As we note under the Performance section, changes in inflation expectations will likely continue to support or weigh on near-term returns.
Companies: Gabelli Value Plus + Trust
The COVID-19 related shutdown has seen the largest US companies extend their share price performance leadership even further, and they are generally assumed to be the winners from any changes to the economy. In part, this outperformance reflects increased certainty that these companies are the beneficiaries from a change in working practices and structural shifts in the economy, but this outperformance has been a longer-running trend. Investors with US equity exposure might be tempted to tilt in favour of strategies exposed to this trend, but tactical and strategic investment considerations are not necessarily always aligned.
Companies: JAM PCT ATT GVP
Napoleon insisted he would rather have his generals be lucky than good. Increasingly, especially when investing in the US stock market, many investors opt for a passive fund, presumably viewing markets through the same prism that managers are really only ever lucky, as opposed to good. Yet many still choose active funds for a variety of reasons: a preferred investment style (or factor bias), or an alignment between the investor and the manager on the macroeconomic outlook are chief among them. For these investors, forming a view on when different styles are likely to perform, and on which macroeconomic environment we are likely to see is crucial. In this article we look at how different factor indices in North America have performed in different economic and market scenarios. We then examine which US-focussed trusts have offered the closest correlation to these factor indices in the recent past. Understanding the impact that broader economic trends have had on the performance of factors – and, by extension, on trusts that seem to operate in close alignment with those factors – can help us to understand and contextualise historic performance. It may also give us some insights on how to position for any anticipated future environment, although there can be no guarantee that historic patterns will repeat.
Companies: GVP BRNA PCT JAM
“Is life always this hard, or just when you’re a kid?” “Always like this” (Leon: The Professional) In the post-financial crisis world, value investors have found themselves facing a period of structural underperformance relative to growth investors which has been unusual relative to history. In fact, this is the longest period of underperformance since at least the 1920s. This raises the question; what, if anything, could cause this to change?
Companies: GVP ASL BEE MIGO TMPL
With exposure across the market cap spectrum, and a disciplined proprietary value investment philosophy, the Gabelli Value Plus+ trust offers a differentiated investment solution and portfolio to a typical US equity vehicle. Using the proprietary Private Market Value with a Catalyst™ investment process that focuses on both the intrinsic value and strategic premium that a company offers a potential purchaser, the managers seek to identify companies which are trading on a substantial discount to the price which an informed buyer would pay for an entire business in a negotiated transaction. In addition to this, they seek to identify a catalyst(s) to realising this value, looking at a variety of factors or potential drivers of a rerating. These can be company specific or relate to the industry at large.
2018 saw the first negative calendar year for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones since 2008 and, despite a subsequent rally, sentiment remains divided between those who believe the US market has more room to run, and those who think the longest bull market in history will soon come screeching to a halt. Instinctively, it feels like a correction must be due and, indeed, a recent survey of Kepler Trust Intelligence readers showed the majority feel that there are choppy waters ahead. Among those who felt that the outlook was negative, the concern raised most often was the impact of any escalation in the ‘trade-war’ talk between China and the United States, while the national ‘black dog’ that is Britain’s constant companion – Brexit – continues to weigh on investor spirits closer to home. However, there are many other indicators which suggest the bull market could continue, making this a difficult time for investors wondering which way to jump. Against this confusing backdrop we look at three different scenarios for the US over the next year, and identify a number of trusts which are positioned well for each.
Companies: USA ATT GVP JUSC BRNA IBT JAM TPOU
Two years after the shock election of Donald Trump and with the US mid-term elections approaching on 6 November, we thought it a good time to strip out all the noise and bluster and assess what the Trump administration has really meant for US markets and the trusts that invest in them. We can identify two key policy moves Trump has achieved as President: tax reforms and trade tariffs. Each has significant ramifications for certain sectors and trusts, some good and some bad. The long-term effects are still in the balance, with the midterms a crucial fork in the road. Since Trump was inaugurated as president, the landscape of the US market has arguably transformed, with greater optimism around the near-term prospects for equities and greater pessimism around international relations. We take a look at how trusts have positioned themselves vis-à-vis these trends. “I promised the American people a big, beautiful tax cut for Christmas. With final passage of this legislation, that is exactly what they are getting.” Arguably the most significant piece of Trumpian legislation for the economy and the stock market was his wide-ranging tax reform introduced at the end of December 2017. This included cutting n the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and a dramatic change to the current model of taxation, in particular the taxation of US corporations’ foreign subsidiaries.
Companies: IBT USA BRNA ATT JAM JUS GVP GVP
The Gabelli Value Plus+ Trust is a differentiated US equity portfolio with a high active share and a wide-ranging all-cap approach focused on identifying undervalued companies, including those with a strategic value to trade buyers. The trust was launched in 2015 during a difficult period for a value approach, but over the long run the strategy has performed well, returning 16% a year compared to the 12% of the US market. The aim is to produce real returns of 10% a year, and the focus is on bottom up analysis with no attention being paid to the indices – the trust’s portfolio has an active share of 94% to the S&P500, with a bias to small and mid-size companies where the managers believe they can add more value and which are more often the subject of takeover bids. The trust also invests a portion of its funds (currently around 10%) into companies that are the subject of takeover offers, which gives it low-risk returns not dependent on market movements. The trust focuses on total return rather than generating an income, so distributions are not guaranteed. Thanks to the value style being out of favour the discount has widened this year, although the trust traded on a premium the last time value rallied, following the election of Trump in late 2016.
The Gabelli Value Plus+ Trust is a differentiated US equity portfolio with a very high active share and a wide-ranging all-cap approach focused on identifying companies wihch the managers believe are undervalued, including an element of exposure to companies which are the target of mergers and acquisitions. Gabelli is a well known name in the United States, managing assets in excess of $40bn and the trust taps into the ‘Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst’ investment strategy, developed by founder Mario Gabelli in the 1970s, which is now taught as part of the value investing course at Columbia Business School. Whilst there is no guarantee that this can be replicated in future the strategy has delivered significant outperformance relative to the wider US market over the long term, delivering ‘up’ years in 35 out of 40 between 1977 and 2016. Launched in February 2015, the Gabelli Value Plus+ Trust (GVP) had kept pace with the notoriously slippery S&P 500 index until the start of 2017 – outperforming it by a small margin – but fell behind last year as the index, and in particular mega-caps toward which the trust is underweight, raced ahead. However GVP’s managers don’t benchmark themselves against an index and, instead, aim for absolute returns typically to the tune of inflation plus 10%. The strategy which the trust mirrors tends to generate its relative outperformance in falling markets and has since inception – typically – lagged behind during quarters where the market has risen strongly, whilst outperforming the market when it has been in negative territory. Whilst it may underperform should mega caps rally again - having relatively low exposure to the largest US stocks - the managers believe the trust stands to benefit from increased M&A activity in the US, as companies onshore their money in the wake of President Trump’s tax changes, and from a positive outlook for domestically focused US stocks – which are a core focus for the trust.
In a report early last year, we analysed the argument surrounding whether value investing (a style that has significantly underperformed relative to growth investing) was about to make a sustained comeback. Simply put, value investing involves buying shares in companies that the managers believe are ‘cheap’ relative to the wider market and their own histories. Many value managers, however, will only buy ‘cheap’ stocks where they have pinpointed a potential catalyst they believe will lead to share prices increasing (by analysing metrics such as cashflow, leverage, balance sheets and external factors) in order to avoid ‘value traps’ - stocks that are still in a period of decline or worse, are heading for total collapse. Growth investing, again put simply, means buying companies that are displaying above average earnings growth. Most growth managers will follow a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach, which means they don’t mind paying higher than average valuations for a stock if they believe future earnings growth is undervalued by the wider market. In recent times especially, value investing has become synonymous with more cyclical stocks such as mining, energy and banks, while growth investing has meant a focus on more defensive companies (with futures which aren’t dependent on economic growth) such as utilities, telecoms, tobacco and other consumer goods stocks. Those who predicting that value stocks were on the verge of a new era of outperformance were proved wrong (or too early), as they generally underperformed growth over the course of 2017. However, in our report last year (and with the proviso that the past is no guide to future returns), we found that had been a correlation between the relative performance of value versus growth stocks and the trajectory of UK government bond (or gilt) yields, with value generally underperforming when yields fell (or when bond prices rose) and outperforming when yields rose (or when bond prices fell). Government bonds have delivered almost unprecedented risk-adjusted returns over the past three decades due to factors such as credit boom prior to the global financial crisis and ultra-low interest rates over the past 10 years. However, many believed bond yields would rise last year (as they did in 2016) as inflation picked up in the UK following Brexit-induced weakness in sterling, coupled with Donald Trump’s commitment to economic stimulus. However, despite these two strong forces at work, 10-year gilt yields fell from their peak of 1.54% in late January 2017 to 1.26% by the end of the year (representing a fall of c.20%). We don’t claim to be experts in global fixed income markets, but the commonly-held view among those who do, is that bond yields will rise over the coming years (though as we mentioned last year, many have incorrectly called the collapse of the bond market for a number of years now…). While this might not be repeated, and again like last year, our analysis shows that value stocks have historically outperformed growth when bond yields have risen. However, as we highlight in this report, it is surprising how little exposure the ‘average’ UK investor has to “value” as a style, with the large majority of inflows into equity funds heading towards funds with a clear “growth” or “quality” bias. As such, if this long-anticipated revival in value investing does indeed occur – most investors look likely to miss out, or worse, be hit by capital losses.
Companies: AGT WTR ASL TMPL GVP
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Cenkos’s first half results demonstrated the benefits of its flexible operating model and strength of its client relationships. While challenges related to COVID-19 are set to continue, Cenkos’s focus is on growth companies and its fund-raising year-to-date has had a greater emphasis on corporates financing M&A and growth opportunities rather than for defensive purposes. This should prove more sustainable although, as always, the timing of transactions in the encouraging pipeline reported remains uncertain.
Companies: Cenkos Securities plc
Avation is a lessor of 46 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. This morning, the group has released results for the 12-months to 30 June 2020, which illustrate the challenges faced by its customer base as a result of Covid-19, as well as the corrective actions taken by the Board that have resulted in profitability being maintained in the year as a whole. Loan repayment deferrals of c.$24.4m were obtained in the period, in comparison to $13.1m short-term rent deferrals being granted to airline customers and thus emphasising management's focus on liquidity during an unprecedented period for global airlines. Avation again reports that it is currently reviewing alternatives in relation to the 6.5% senior notes due in May 2021. Whilst at this point our forecasts remain under review, and near term challenges remain across the industry, we believe that demand for aircraft from lessors such as Avation will increase in time as a result of airlines being even more reliant upon aircraft leasing firms due to the retirement of older aircraft during 2020 in combination with much weaker balance sheets that are unable to support direct aircraft purchases.
Companies: Avation PLC
Record’s Q221 trading update confirmed that its new $8bn dynamic hedging mandate has started and that, prior to this, assets under management equivalent (AUME) expanded by 4% in the quarter. The group continues to work on developing new products and is deploying technology to enhance its ability to deliver these and existing products cost effectively.
Companies: Record plc
Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that holds a portfolio of 510 primary health facilities in the UK (92% of the portfolio by value) and Ireland (8%). The business model is to manage the properties for rental income and to grow the portfolio over time. The
Companies: PHP PP51 PHPRF
In another upbeat update, GHT has confirmed that the business is tracking in line, in turn being driven by strong traction with key customer, ANZ. Here, new sales have driven a 20% increase in contracted customer revenue to >£11m in FY21. As a strategic partner (deeply involved with GHT in bringing new Clareti banking services to market) this extra investment is very encouraging, as it’s indicative of these services‘ strong future potential. Also announced today – GHT state that its transition to a recurring subscription model (commenced just two years ago) is now complete and that ARR now stands at £11.9m, ~+16% annualised organic growth since FY20 y/e. In a tough new business environment, we view this as a highly credible performance. It’s also worth noting that management reference remaining pipeline opportunities, these would further benefit strong forwards visibility – already £22.4m for FY21. Given this – and also as sign of confidence – today we reinstate FY21 forecasts. We look for a reacceleration in top-line growth: +16% y/y to £28.7m at a Group level, in turn driven by c.+24% organic growth in Clareti, to £20m. For valuation – with Clareti still in its relative infancy – we continue to view a sales multiple as most appropriate. Here, we note that peers typically trade in a 5-7x range vs. GHT at 4x our FY21 estimate. This suggests 25-75% upside to fair value for this disruptive company, with a multi-year growth opportunity still ahead.
Companies: Gresham House
As expected following the US banks’ releases, Barclays’ third quarter results saw a sharp reduction in provisions build-up while the emergence of delinquencies has been delayed by the State’s supporting measures. Management continues to expect a reduction in the cost of risk next year. It remains to be seen if this guidance is capable of withstanding new lockdowns or a no-deal Brexit.
Companies: Barclays PLC
Following on quickly from its impressive full year results, these interim results confirm that our confidence for growth in the Program Management business was not misplaced.Contracted Premium increased 95% YoY (and 12% ahead of December 2019) to $925m –a stone's throw away from the $1bn 2020 guidance set in 2018. At the same time, Gross Written Premium (GWP) grew 42.6% to £247.2m, resulting in Economic EBITDA turning positive, at £0.8m compared to a loss of £0.3m in 1H19
Companies: Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.
Tatton has reported an in-line H1 financial performance: revenue totalled £11.0m (vs N+1Se £10.9m) and £5.0m adj. EBIT (50% N+1S FY21e). AuM grew by 3.4% to £7.8bn as net inflows continued throughout H1 (+£328m) – a positive performance given the backdrop. Paradigm, particularly in Mortgages, has been resilient post-lockdown. Having delivered 50% of our earnings forecast for FY21e, there is potential for upside. However, we leave our forecasts unchanged and a margin for safety as we remain alive to potential external risks/volatility.
Companies: Tatton Asset Management Plc
The interims confirmed that Covid-19 was minimally disruptive operationally in H1 20 and, ironically, may have improved both of R&Q’s divisions’ mediumterm trading outlooks. As the pandemic and other industry events have generated significant losses for insurers, they have created the current ‘hardening’ market driving demand for Legacy and Program Management.
Agronomics has announced it has conditionally raised £10.0m gross from an equity issue at a price of 6.0p, which represents a 6.8% premium to the most recently reported NAV per share of 5.62p. Assuming the company's post-raise cash balance is £8.15m, after repaying a £1.9m bridging facility, we estimate the new NAV per share to be c5.7p. We see significant potential in the cultivated meat sector and believe Agronomics is well positioned to support this developing sector and generate strong returns from these investments. We see upside in Agronomics' portfolio and have today initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Companies: Agronomics Limited
ANGLE plc (AGL.L): Acceptance of FDA submission | Feedback plc (FDBK.L*): Partnership agreement | Open Orphan (ORPH.L): Human Challenge Study Model contract with UK Government
Companies: AGL FDBK ORPH
Agronomics is an investment company building a portfolio of investments in the developing alternative protein sector. The company is focused on early stage investments, offering attractive valuations and significant upside potential. Importantly, we believe Agronomics represents an opportunity for public investors to gain access to early stage private companies, which might not otherwise be available. We expect the cultivated meat sector to be driven by a number of global mega trends that will increase public awareness of the issues the sector is aiming to overcome. We see strong upside in Agronomics' existing portfolio and initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation.
Secure Trust Bank (STB) reported H120 PBT of £5.1m (vs £18.1m a year ago) and a 3.0% ROE. Income grew 4% y-o-y, but impairments almost doubled, and payment holiday charges also hurt. STB notes that since the lockdown ended, business has been rebounding. Its robust capital (CET 13.5%), business model and proven agility allow it to react to the changing lending environment. STB currently trades on a P/BV of 0.49x, reflecting sentiment more than fundamentals given its profitability track record and successful model. Our fair value estimate is 1,704p per share, down from 2,428p..
Companies: Secure Trust Bank Plc
Litigation Capital Management has announced FY20 results with gross profit up 7% to A$21.7m and PBT of A$9.2m, slightly behind expectations albeit the Group had already flagged that delays to 3 cases during the year would result in resolutions in FY21, thereby impacting FY20 results. That said, excellent strategic progress through the year and good news flow as well as increasing scale suggests more value to come. Reiterate buy
Companies: Litigation Capital Management Ltd
There was an eclectic mix of property companies to feature in the top price movers for September. Top of the tree was private rented sector and residential development specialist Sigma Capital Group, with a 34.2% rise. The group launched a £1bn joint venture with EQT Real Estate, the real estate platform of global investment firm EQT, to deliver 3,000 private rental homes in Greater London. Micro-cap investor Panther Securities also hit double-digit gains, while Macau Property Opportunities saw an uplift in its share price after announcing debt refinancing and a disposal. CLS Holdings, the investor in offices in Germany, France and the UK, continued to see a recovery in its share price – which has risen 15.1% in the last three months. Off the back of solid results, Berlin residential landlord Phoenix Spree Deutschland saw its share price gain 7.2%. Schroder REIT’s share price rose 6.6% in the month as it embarked on a share buyback programme, while Irish commercial property investor Yew Grove REIT also saw positive shareholder reaction to amending its investment strategy to increase its target loan to value ratio to 40%.
Companies: SUPR DIGS CRC PSDL ASEI TPON RLE UKCM BREI BCPT RGL SIR SLI TOWN CAL
