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  • 16 Oct 19
Life on Mars: could inflation take us back to the '70s?

Inflation has been relatively tame for the past two decades, yet history suggests it would be unwise to reject the possibility of a damaging period of higher inflation out of hand. Central banks’ post-crisis quantitative easing policies have not led to the high inflation expected by some, but periods of high inflation in the past have been due to very different causes. When looking at the historical record, we see clear signs that the threat of inflation cannot be written off, and so taking out an insurance policy might be wise. Below we consider the potential sources of an inflationary shock to the global economy, and some assets and trusts that offer protection.

Companies: UKW RICA BREI BRWM

  • 16 Oct 19
Life on Mars: could inflation take us back to the '70s?

Inflation has been relatively tame for the past two decades, yet history suggests it would be unwise to reject the possibility of a damaging period of higher inflation out of hand. Central banks’ post-crisis quantitative easing policies have not led to the high inflation expected by some, but periods of high inflation in the past have been due to very different causes. When looking at the historical record, we see clear signs that the threat of inflation cannot be written off, and so taking out an insurance policy might be wise. Below we consider the potential sources of an inflationary shock to the global economy, and some assets and trusts that offer protection.

Companies: UKW RICA BREI BRWM

  • 09 Oct 19
Bond proxy?

Bonds have traditionally been a core part of private client portfolios. Harry Markowitz is generally credited with developing and popularising the modern approach to investment diversification, as part of his doctoral thesis in 1952. Markowitz’s 60/40 equity/bond portfolio quickly became a staple of retail investor portfolios, and for many years equity and bond portfolios built around this basic concept have been highly successful for investors. The attractions were clear: aside from the solid income that bonds offer investors as a portfolio component portfolio, they also provided something of a hedge to equity exposure.

Companies: UKW TRIG HICL SONG

  • 09 Oct 19
Bond proxy?

Bonds have traditionally been a core part of private client portfolios. Harry Markowitz is generally credited with developing and popularising the modern approach to investment diversification, as part of his doctoral thesis in 1952. Markowitz’s 60/40 equity/bond portfolio quickly became a staple of retail investor portfolios, and for many years equity and bond portfolios built around this basic concept have been highly successful for investors. The attractions were clear: aside from the solid income that bonds offer investors as a portfolio component portfolio, they also provided something of a hedge to equity exposure.

Companies: UKW TRIG HICL SONG

  • 19 Sep 19
Rebels no more...

Whilst not everyone is yet declaring a “climate emergency”, most people now recognise that the global economy is not on a particularly sustainable trajectory. Recent news from Nestle – that they aim to be “net-zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 - shows that what might have seemed a “fringe” idea a few years ago, is now mainstream. According to a 2018 YouGov survey, 62% of people believe Government are doing too little to prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. 71% believe fossil fuel companies should help pay for damage caused by extreme weather events, and (perhaps of most immediate relevance to our readership) 62% of people are interested in a pension fund or financial institution that considers the environmental impact of the companies it invests in (Source: YouGov 2018). At the same time, consumers are increasingly aware of their buying power, and the influence it can have on companies’ corporate behaviour and supply chains. Allied to this, investors also recognise the effect their investing behaviour can have on companies they invest in. Increasingly, they look to the managers of the funds they invest in to engage with company management and see this as a mechanism by which positive change in investee companies can be brought to bear. Many established funds and ETFs offer “ethical”, “green” or another shade of socially responsible investment. However, these labels don’t in our view really reflect the full range of what is potentially on offer. We understand the broad concept as “ESG Investing” – environmental, social, governance. As a theme or concept it is clearly rising in popularity - Google searches for ‘ESG investing’ have risen rapidly over the past decade, with a compound annual growth rate of 73%, almost double that of ‘passive investing’ (42%). Many fund managers (or their marketing departments) have been jumping on the bandwagon, and ESG now features in many presentations where perhaps as recent ago as last year, there had never been any mention! Despite its apparent popularity, many investors do not have a fixed idea of what they really mean when they say they want funds with better ESG credentials. For example, some investors may mean that they want a very narrow focus in the types of companies they invest in – for example supporting renewable energy, and thereby generate strong returns but also help finance the shift to a less carbon intensive economy. Others may want to invest in companies which are leading the way in reducing (or actively addressing) the harmful effects of their business operations’ externalities, meaning that they are comfortable investing in companies and industries that pollute – but only if they are “getting their act together”, trying to reduce negative externalities, or are “best in class” in trying to minimise their negative effects. Others may want their fund managers to actively engage with company managements, and try to influence the strategic direction the company is taken on. Lastly, investors may only want to own companies with what they see as a correct gender-balance, or have policies which prevent child labour within their supply chains. There are many different ways of interpreting what ESG really means. The job of investors looking at ESG must be to find a fund or investment trust which is aligned with their own specific values, irrespective of the marketing document or industry sector it belongs to. We believe an increasing number of “mainstream” funds will be suitable for ESG investors, depending on what their requirements are. How, then, do investors find them?

Companies: IEM UKW MNP

  • 19 Sep 19
Rebels no more...

Whilst not everyone is yet declaring a “climate emergency”, most people now recognise that the global economy is not on a particularly sustainable trajectory. Recent news from Nestle – that they aim to be “net-zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 - shows that what might have seemed a “fringe” idea a few years ago, is now mainstream. According to a 2018 YouGov survey, 62% of people believe Government are doing too little to prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. 71% believe fossil fuel companies should help pay for damage caused by extreme weather events, and (perhaps of most immediate relevance to our readership) 62% of people are interested in a pension fund or financial institution that considers the environmental impact of the companies it invests in (Source: YouGov 2018). At the same time, consumers are increasingly aware of their buying power, and the influence it can have on companies’ corporate behaviour and supply chains. Allied to this, investors also recognise the effect their investing behaviour can have on companies they invest in. Increasingly, they look to the managers of the funds they invest in to engage with company management and see this as a mechanism by which positive change in investee companies can be brought to bear. Many established funds and ETFs offer “ethical”, “green” or another shade of socially responsible investment. However, these labels don’t in our view really reflect the full range of what is potentially on offer. We understand the broad concept as “ESG Investing” – environmental, social, governance. As a theme or concept it is clearly rising in popularity - Google searches for ‘ESG investing’ have risen rapidly over the past decade, with a compound annual growth rate of 73%, almost double that of ‘passive investing’ (42%). Many fund managers (or their marketing departments) have been jumping on the bandwagon, and ESG now features in many presentations where perhaps as recent ago as last year, there had never been any mention! Despite its apparent popularity, many investors do not have a fixed idea of what they really mean when they say they want funds with better ESG credentials. For example, some investors may mean that they want a very narrow focus in the types of companies they invest in – for example supporting renewable energy, and thereby generate strong returns but also help finance the shift to a less carbon intensive economy. Others may want to invest in companies which are leading the way in reducing (or actively addressing) the harmful effects of their business operations’ externalities, meaning that they are comfortable investing in companies and industries that pollute – but only if they are “getting their act together”, trying to reduce negative externalities, or are “best in class” in trying to minimise their negative effects. Others may want their fund managers to actively engage with company managements, and try to influence the strategic direction the company is taken on. Lastly, investors may only want to own companies with what they see as a correct gender-balance, or have policies which prevent child labour within their supply chains. There are many different ways of interpreting what ESG really means. The job of investors looking at ESG must be to find a fund or investment trust which is aligned with their own specific values, irrespective of the marketing document or industry sector it belongs to. We believe an increasing number of “mainstream” funds will be suitable for ESG investors, depending on what their requirements are. How, then, do investors find them?

Companies: IEM UKW MNP

  • 19 Sep 19
Greencoat UK Wind - Overview

Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) provides a pure investment exposure to UK wind farms, with the aim of delivering a high, RPI linked, income return for shareholders whilst maintaining capital value in real terms. We have recently launched an Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) analysis section as part of our standard fund profiles. From an ESG perspective, UKW clearly ticks the “environment” box in that investing in UKW provides the long-term capital which enables an increase in renewable energy provision in the UK, and the shift to a lower carbon economy. The managers estimate UKW prevents over 1m tonnes of CO2 per annum from being emitted with thermal generation being the alternative. We calculate that this is equivalent to 0.8kg per share. Setting this into context, a flight from London to Milan emits 181kg of CO2 (Source: Atmosfair). A £10k investment in UKW is equivalent to 5.6 tonnes of CO2 “prevented” per year. In other respects, Greencoat as manager is clearly a keen proponent of ESG, and aware of its responsibilities therein. Greencoat were signatories to the UN-supported Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) in 2016 and provides a lot of detail of how it incorporates ESG issues in its decision-making process and asset management. Wind is a resource that the UK has plenty of. In 2018 it was a significant contributor to the UK’s electricity supply – meeting 17% of the country’s total demand (renewables as a whole contributed 30%). As such, it is likely to remain one of the central planks of the UK’s strategy to achieve a lower carbon economy. Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) currently owns a portfolio of 35 wind farms around the UK, which together generate enough electricity to power 940,000 homes and is the largest renewable infrastructure fund listed on the LSE with net assets of £1.9bn. UKW remains amongst the best performing of the renewable infrastructure funds since it launched in 2013. Since launch, the company has delivered strong total returns comprising the 6p dividend, which has risen with RPI, and capital growth of 23.9%. In share price terms, shareholders have enjoyed a total return of 96.8% in just over six years. Despite the considerably lower volatility that the company exhibits, on a NAV total return basis UKW has outperformed the FTSE All Share Index total return since launch by over 30 percentage points. UKW’s main objective is to pay a high dividend to shareholders that is linked to inflation (RPI) and to preserve capital after taking inflation into account. The trust has a target for 2019 of 6.94p per share, representing a 2.66% increase over the prior year, and in line with RPI for December 2018. This year so far, UKW has paid two dividends totalling 3.47p which is in line with the target. Since launch (and based on the dividend target for 2019) the dividend has risen by 2.95% p.a., which compares to the retail prices index of 2.6% p.a. over the same period. At the current share price, the prospective yield is 5.0%. Around 50% of the company’s cashflows are directly index-linked, with the remainder being exposed to electricity prices. As such, electricity prices, which are assumed to have a correlation to inflation, affect UKW’s ability to grow the NAV by RPI in the long term. Given the high dividend cover of 1.7x on average, the company expects to be able to continue to grow the dividend by RPI on an annual basis over the long term. UKW has been growing strongly, and during 2019 so far has invested in excess of £600m funded from equity issuance and re-investing surplus cashflows supplemented by debt facilities. Net assets are now £1.9bn. Shareholders benefit from this growth in the form of a declining OCF, which has been coming down rapidly and through operational economies of scale within the business. As at the end of 2018, the OCF was 1.13%, a reduction from the 1.24% level at the end of 2017, and 1.46% at the time of initially listing. The published forecast OCF from the managers for 2019 was 1.08% at the beginning of the year. Many of the listed 'alternative income' funds continue to trade at significant premiums – and UKW is no exception on a current premium to NAV of 13%.

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind
  • 19 Sep 19
Greencoat UK Wind - Overview

Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) provides a pure investment exposure to UK wind farms, with the aim of delivering a high, RPI linked, income return for shareholders whilst maintaining capital value in real terms. We have recently launched an Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) analysis section as part of our standard fund profiles. From an ESG perspective, UKW clearly ticks the “environment” box in that investing in UKW provides the long-term capital which enables an increase in renewable energy provision in the UK, and the shift to a lower carbon economy. The managers estimate UKW prevents over 1m tonnes of CO2 per annum from being emitted with thermal generation being the alternative. We calculate that this is equivalent to 0.8kg per share. Setting this into context, a flight from London to Milan emits 181kg of CO2 (Source: Atmosfair). A £10k investment in UKW is equivalent to 5.6 tonnes of CO2 “prevented” per year. In other respects, Greencoat as manager is clearly a keen proponent of ESG, and aware of its responsibilities therein. Greencoat were signatories to the UN-supported Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) in 2016 and provides a lot of detail of how it incorporates ESG issues in its decision-making process and asset management. Wind is a resource that the UK has plenty of. In 2018 it was a significant contributor to the UK’s electricity supply – meeting 17% of the country’s total demand (renewables as a whole contributed 30%). As such, it is likely to remain one of the central planks of the UK’s strategy to achieve a lower carbon economy. Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) currently owns a portfolio of 35 wind farms around the UK, which together generate enough electricity to power 940,000 homes and is the largest renewable infrastructure fund listed on the LSE with net assets of £1.9bn. UKW remains amongst the best performing of the renewable infrastructure funds since it launched in 2013. Since launch, the company has delivered strong total returns comprising the 6p dividend, which has risen with RPI, and capital growth of 23.9%. In share price terms, shareholders have enjoyed a total return of 96.8% in just over six years. Despite the considerably lower volatility that the company exhibits, on a NAV total return basis UKW has outperformed the FTSE All Share Index total return since launch by over 30 percentage points. UKW’s main objective is to pay a high dividend to shareholders that is linked to inflation (RPI) and to preserve capital after taking inflation into account. The trust has a target for 2019 of 6.94p per share, representing a 2.66% increase over the prior year, and in line with RPI for December 2018. This year so far, UKW has paid two dividends totalling 3.47p which is in line with the target. Since launch (and based on the dividend target for 2019) the dividend has risen by 2.95% p.a., which compares to the retail prices index of 2.6% p.a. over the same period. At the current share price, the prospective yield is 5.0%. Around 50% of the company’s cashflows are directly index-linked, with the remainder being exposed to electricity prices. As such, electricity prices, which are assumed to have a correlation to inflation, affect UKW’s ability to grow the NAV by RPI in the long term. Given the high dividend cover of 1.7x on average, the company expects to be able to continue to grow the dividend by RPI on an annual basis over the long term. UKW has been growing strongly, and during 2019 so far has invested in excess of £600m funded from equity issuance and re-investing surplus cashflows supplemented by debt facilities. Net assets are now £1.9bn. Shareholders benefit from this growth in the form of a declining OCF, which has been coming down rapidly and through operational economies of scale within the business. As at the end of 2018, the OCF was 1.13%, a reduction from the 1.24% level at the end of 2017, and 1.46% at the time of initially listing. The published forecast OCF from the managers for 2019 was 1.08% at the beginning of the year. Many of the listed 'alternative income' funds continue to trade at significant premiums – and UKW is no exception on a current premium to NAV of 13%.

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind
  • 18 Jul 19
UK Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds – For all the fans

Over the past two decades, onshore wind power has prospered and now exceeds 12 GW in the UK. The termination of subsidies for new plants from 2017 onwards has cut investment. Instead, offshore wind power is the new ‘goto’ investment sector, as there has been a sea-change in costs. The key event was the 2017 auction for the development of the Hornsea Project Two and the Moray East fields, when 15-year contract for differences (CfDs) were awarded, at just £57.50p per MWh; this compares with the 2018 £100 per MWh target that had been set previously by the Government. In recent years, solar power has come of age. Total UK solar capacity now exceeds 12 GW. Inevitably, most solar farms are based in the Midlands or in the South, where irradiation levels exceed the UK average. A typical solar farm portfolio might include 50 sites with 8 MW of capacity per site. Despite the removal of subsidies for new solar plants, the prospects remain bright for new build, since costs have fallen appreciably in recent years. The levelised cost (LCOE) of solar power should fall below £70 per MWh. The UK’s first subsidy-free solar farm has been commissioned at Clay Hill in Milton Keynes. For many investors, REIFs offer an attractive means of securing exposure to the benefits of rising UK investment in these sectors, much of which is backed by long-term contracts delivering generally solid and secure returns. Our sector research focuses on 11 quoted REIFs, which mirror those selected by members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). The recently floated Aquila European Renewables fund is included, despite its declared policy not to invest in UK generation. Since May 2014, REIF returns have been solid, with total returns approaching 10% per year. As a group, their combined market capitalisation is ca.£7bn; the most valuable quoted funds are Greencoat UK Wind (£2.1bn) and The Renewables Infrastructure Group (£1.8bn). The sector premia over net asset valuations (NAVs) for most REIFs now lie in the 9%-19% range. The premium for Greencoat UK Wind, following its £375m gross fundraise, is ca.14%; The Renewables Infrastructure Group premium is similar. Targeted real dividend increases underpin the attractions, in particular, of wind and solar investments; major earnings shortfalls are low-risk, with little likelihood of a dividend cut. Prospective dividend yields for most REIFs currently lie in the range of 5.0%-6.0%. In terms of risk, future movements of interest rates could have a material impact on NAVs and, consequently, upon share price ratings. The precise effect will depend on the degree to which the discount rates moves relative to the riskfree rate. Regulatory amendments, subsidy changes and possible tax adjustments are also key risk factors with one company commenting that movements in long term power price forecasts are the most significant risk.

Companies: TRIG UKW NESF FSFL AERS GSF GRP SEIT USF

  • 18 Jul 19
UK Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds – For all the fans

Over the past two decades, onshore wind power has prospered and now exceeds 12 GW in the UK. The termination of subsidies for new plants from 2017 onwards has cut investment. Instead, offshore wind power is the new ‘goto’ investment sector, as there has been a sea-change in costs. The key event was the 2017 auction for the development of the Hornsea Project Two and the Moray East fields, when 15-year contract for differences (CfDs) were awarded, at just £57.50p per MWh; this compares with the 2018 £100 per MWh target that had been set previously by the Government. In recent years, solar power has come of age. Total UK solar capacity now exceeds 12 GW. Inevitably, most solar farms are based in the Midlands or in the South, where irradiation levels exceed the UK average. A typical solar farm portfolio might include 50 sites with 8 MW of capacity per site. Despite the removal of subsidies for new solar plants, the prospects remain bright for new build, since costs have fallen appreciably in recent years. The levelised cost (LCOE) of solar power should fall below £70 per MWh. The UK’s first subsidy-free solar farm has been commissioned at Clay Hill in Milton Keynes. For many investors, REIFs offer an attractive means of securing exposure to the benefits of rising UK investment in these sectors, much of which is backed by long-term contracts delivering generally solid and secure returns. Our sector research focuses on 11 quoted REIFs, which mirror those selected by members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). The recently floated Aquila European Renewables fund is included, despite its declared policy not to invest in UK generation. Since May 2014, REIF returns have been solid, with total returns approaching 10% per year. As a group, their combined market capitalisation is ca.£7bn; the most valuable quoted funds are Greencoat UK Wind (£2.1bn) and The Renewables Infrastructure Group (£1.8bn). The sector premia over net asset valuations (NAVs) for most REIFs now lie in the 9%-19% range. The premium for Greencoat UK Wind, following its £375m gross fundraise, is ca.14%; The Renewables Infrastructure Group premium is similar. Targeted real dividend increases underpin the attractions, in particular, of wind and solar investments; major earnings shortfalls are low-risk, with little likelihood of a dividend cut. Prospective dividend yields for most REIFs currently lie in the range of 5.0%-6.0%. In terms of risk, future movements of interest rates could have a material impact on NAVs and, consequently, upon share price ratings. The precise effect will depend on the degree to which the discount rates moves relative to the riskfree rate. Regulatory amendments, subsidy changes and possible tax adjustments are also key risk factors with one company commenting that movements in long term power price forecasts are the most significant risk.

Companies: TRIG UKW NESF FSFL AERS GSF GRP SEIT USF

  • 30 May 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Results of fundraising | Oakley Capital – Investment in Inspired

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind Oakley Capital Investments

  • 30 May 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Results of fundraising | Oakley Capital – Investment in Inspired

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind Oakley Capital Investments

  • 10 May 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Impact Healthcare REIT – Results of fundraising | Hipgnosis Songs – Acquisition | Greencoat UK Wind – Fundraising prospectus and timetable | Triple Point Social Housing – Response to BEST regulatory announcement

Companies: IHR SONG UKW SOHO

  • 10 May 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Impact Healthcare REIT – Results of fundraising | Hipgnosis Songs – Acquisition | Greencoat UK Wind – Fundraising prospectus and timetable | Triple Point Social Housing – Response to BEST regulatory announcement

Companies: IHR SONG UKW SOHO

  • 02 May 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Share issuance programme and initial fundraising | UK Commercial Property – Q1 2019 NAV and dividend

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind UK Commercial Property Trust

  • 02 May 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Share issuance programme and initial fundraising | UK Commercial Property – Q1 2019 NAV and dividend

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind UK Commercial Property Trust

  • 01 Apr 19
Monthly Corporate Activity

Fundraising showed signs of picking up this month, and the focus was very much on the renewables sector. First of all there was Renewables Infrastructure Group, which launched a placing programme and an initial fundraising early in the month, targeting up to £170m. It ended up raising just over £300m, having received applications for nearly three times as many shares as were originally available, in an upsized and scaled back issuance. Greencoat Renewables also announced and completed a placing which raised EUR 148m, around 40% more than the target. Another indication of interest in this sector was John Laing Environmental Assets successfully placing around 22m of its shares that were being sold by The John Laing Pension Trust. Finally, with regard to news in this sector, the close of the US Solar Fund* IPO had to be put back after just falling short of its target by the original closing date – closing is now expected to take place on 10 April.

Companies: TRIG BBOX UKW GRP ALF ELTA ESP FAIR BCPT BREI HTCF MERI UKCM

  • 01 Apr 19
Monthly Corporate Activity

Fundraising showed signs of picking up this month, and the focus was very much on the renewables sector. First of all there was Renewables Infrastructure Group, which launched a placing programme and an initial fundraising early in the month, targeting up to £170m. It ended up raising just over £300m, having received applications for nearly three times as many shares as were originally available, in an upsized and scaled back issuance. Greencoat Renewables also announced and completed a placing which raised EUR 148m, around 40% more than the target. Another indication of interest in this sector was John Laing Environmental Assets successfully placing around 22m of its shares that were being sold by The John Laing Pension Trust. Finally, with regard to news in this sector, the close of the US Solar Fund* IPO had to be put back after just falling short of its target by the original closing date – closing is now expected to take place on 10 April.

Companies: TRIG BBOX UKW GRP ALF ELTA ESP FAIR BCPT BREI HTCF MERI UKCM

  • 06 Mar 19
Stairway to heaven Update

Many investors think ISA investing is all about sticking equities away for the long term and forgetting about them. However, we think there are good reasons for allocating to alternative income-generating assets in your ISA, even for those concerned with longterm capital growth. We think that many investors don’t fully appreciate the benefit of reducing the volatility on a portfolio. When thinking about long-term returns, the tendency is to think of the average return in the long run as what you will get, and to think of volatility as a measure of the mark to market “discomfort” along the way. However, this ignores the devastating effect of sequencing risk, and the fact that a particular average annual return can be consistent with negative eventual outcomes. Adding uncorrelated assets, such as alternative income funds, to your portfolio can massively reduce the risk of a terrible investment outcome, and, as we shall see, without necessarily reducing the expected return. This is certainly true when you consider how favourably the returns of these alternative income funds compare to those from equities in recent years, another fact we think is under-appreciated, and which sets them apart from traditional diversifiers such as high-quality bonds. There is no guarantee that future return patterns represent the past, of course. With respect to the alternative income funds we consider below, there are specific risks to capital which have to be considered. However, we think that there is a way to use these trusts taking these risks into consideration. The re-investment of the income from these trusts, reliable in the short term, gives the investor the opportunity to “pound-cost-average” their investment in equities when they look cheap, or reinvest in the same high yielding alternative assets. We consider how this might work below, and look at a range of alternative income funds that might be suitable.

Companies: TRIG UKW HICL NBLS MGCI

  • 06 Mar 19
Stairway to heaven Update

Many investors think ISA investing is all about sticking equities away for the long term and forgetting about them. However, we think there are good reasons for allocating to alternative income-generating assets in your ISA, even for those concerned with longterm capital growth. We think that many investors don’t fully appreciate the benefit of reducing the volatility on a portfolio. When thinking about long-term returns, the tendency is to think of the average return in the long run as what you will get, and to think of volatility as a measure of the mark to market “discomfort” along the way. However, this ignores the devastating effect of sequencing risk, and the fact that a particular average annual return can be consistent with negative eventual outcomes. Adding uncorrelated assets, such as alternative income funds, to your portfolio can massively reduce the risk of a terrible investment outcome, and, as we shall see, without necessarily reducing the expected return. This is certainly true when you consider how favourably the returns of these alternative income funds compare to those from equities in recent years, another fact we think is under-appreciated, and which sets them apart from traditional diversifiers such as high-quality bonds. There is no guarantee that future return patterns represent the past, of course. With respect to the alternative income funds we consider below, there are specific risks to capital which have to be considered. However, we think that there is a way to use these trusts taking these risks into consideration. The re-investment of the income from these trusts, reliable in the short term, gives the investor the opportunity to “pound-cost-average” their investment in equities when they look cheap, or reinvest in the same high yielding alternative assets. We consider how this might work below, and look at a range of alternative income funds that might be suitable.

Companies: TRIG UKW HICL NBLS MGCI

  • 28 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Finals to 31 December 2018 | Tetragon – Finals to 31 December 2018 | RM Secured Direct Lending – Proposed fundraising | Electra Private Equity – Dividend declaration

Companies: UKW TFG RMDL ELTA

  • 28 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Finals to 31 December 2018 | Tetragon – Finals to 31 December 2018 | RM Secured Direct Lending – Proposed fundraising | Electra Private Equity – Dividend declaration

Companies: UKW TFG RMDL ELTA

  • 28 Feb 19
Greencoat UK Wind - Overview

Greencoat UK Wind’s (UKW) aim is to provide investors with an annual dividend that increases in line with RPI inflation (target of 6.94p for 2019, a yield of 5.1%) while preserving the real value of the NAV in the long term through reinvestment of excess cashflow and the use of portfolio gearing. So far it has delivered on all of its promises since launch in 2013. UKW is now the largest listed renewable infrastructure fund, with net assets of in excess of £1.7bn (after the recent placing). Investment activity this year has continued apace, with £452m invested so far in 2019. This will bring the total portfolio to c. £2.3bn in size by the end of March. The managers expect to be able to benefit from scale, both in operational terms, but also in terms of acquisitions and financing. The OCF last year fell to 1.13% (from 2017’s 1.24% and 1.46% at listing) and is forecast to be 1.08% after the recent placing. The portfolio will shortly constitute investments (in whole or in part) in 34 operating UK wind farms around the country. These assets represent a net generating capacity of 950MW, enough to power c.900,000 homes. As such, the portfolio has geographic diversification around the UK, not to mention diversification by turbine manufacturer and by units – the company will own (or has interests in) a total of 715 turbines by the end of March. UKW buys only operating wind farms in the UK. UKW has unequivocally been a strong performer since it launched. The NAV total return (i.e. with dividends reinvested) since launch has been 8.3% pa. Despite the considerably lower volatility that the company exhibits, on a NAV total return basis UKW has outperformed both the FTSE All Share Index total return since launch, and peers in the listed renewable infrastructure sector. Around 50% of the company’s cashflows are directly index-linked, with the remainder being exposed to electricity prices. As such, electricity prices, which are assumed to have a correlation to inflation, affect UKW’s ability to grow NAV by RPI in the long term. Given the high dividend cover of 1.7x on average, the company expects to grow the dividend by RPI on an annual basis over the long term. Currently the trust has £400m of longer-term fixed rate borrowing, with a weighted average cost of 3.08% and remaining term of 5.6 years. The trust has an additional £394m of shorter-term gearing drawn down, equivalent to 34% of gross assets. Together the average interest cost is 2.76%. Over the medium term, the team expects total gearing to be between 20% and 30% of total assets. Many of the listed 'alternative income' funds continue to trade at significant premiums – and Greencoat is no exception on a current premium to NAV of 13%.

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind
  • 28 Feb 19
Greencoat UK Wind - Overview

Greencoat UK Wind’s (UKW) aim is to provide investors with an annual dividend that increases in line with RPI inflation (target of 6.94p for 2019, a yield of 5.1%) while preserving the real value of the NAV in the long term through reinvestment of excess cashflow and the use of portfolio gearing. So far it has delivered on all of its promises since launch in 2013. UKW is now the largest listed renewable infrastructure fund, with net assets of in excess of £1.7bn (after the recent placing). Investment activity this year has continued apace, with £452m invested so far in 2019. This will bring the total portfolio to c. £2.3bn in size by the end of March. The managers expect to be able to benefit from scale, both in operational terms, but also in terms of acquisitions and financing. The OCF last year fell to 1.13% (from 2017’s 1.24% and 1.46% at listing) and is forecast to be 1.08% after the recent placing. The portfolio will shortly constitute investments (in whole or in part) in 34 operating UK wind farms around the country. These assets represent a net generating capacity of 950MW, enough to power c.900,000 homes. As such, the portfolio has geographic diversification around the UK, not to mention diversification by turbine manufacturer and by units – the company will own (or has interests in) a total of 715 turbines by the end of March. UKW buys only operating wind farms in the UK. UKW has unequivocally been a strong performer since it launched. The NAV total return (i.e. with dividends reinvested) since launch has been 8.3% pa. Despite the considerably lower volatility that the company exhibits, on a NAV total return basis UKW has outperformed both the FTSE All Share Index total return since launch, and peers in the listed renewable infrastructure sector. Around 50% of the company’s cashflows are directly index-linked, with the remainder being exposed to electricity prices. As such, electricity prices, which are assumed to have a correlation to inflation, affect UKW’s ability to grow NAV by RPI in the long term. Given the high dividend cover of 1.7x on average, the company expects to grow the dividend by RPI on an annual basis over the long term. Currently the trust has £400m of longer-term fixed rate borrowing, with a weighted average cost of 3.08% and remaining term of 5.6 years. The trust has an additional £394m of shorter-term gearing drawn down, equivalent to 34% of gross assets. Together the average interest cost is 2.76%. Over the medium term, the team expects total gearing to be between 20% and 30% of total assets. Many of the listed 'alternative income' funds continue to trade at significant premiums – and Greencoat is no exception on a current premium to NAV of 13%.

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind
  • 13 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

PSH* – Pershing Square Holdings – Dividend payments | UKW – Greencoat UK Wind – Results of placing | MERI – Merian Chrysalis – Portfolio update | SYNC – Syncona - Quarterly update

Companies: PSHD UKW MERI SYNC

  • 13 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

PSH* – Pershing Square Holdings – Dividend payments | UKW – Greencoat UK Wind – Results of placing | MERI – Merian Chrysalis – Portfolio update | SYNC – Syncona - Quarterly update

Companies: PSHD UKW MERI SYNC

  • 12 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

UKW – Greencoat UK Wind – Accelerated close of placing | RDL – Ranger Direct Lending – Portfolio, management and valuation

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind Ranger Direct Lending Fund

  • 12 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

UKW – Greencoat UK Wind – Accelerated close of placing | RDL – Ranger Direct Lending – Portfolio, management and valuation

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind Ranger Direct Lending Fund

  • 01 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Acquisition and fundraising | Greencoat Renewables – Q4 2018 NAV and dividend | AEW UK Long Lease – Q4 2018 NAV and dividend

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind Greencoat Renewables

  • 01 Feb 19
Fidante Daily Digest

Greencoat UK Wind – Acquisition and fundraising | Greencoat Renewables – Q4 2018 NAV and dividend | AEW UK Long Lease – Q4 2018 NAV and dividend

Companies: Greencoat UK Wind Greencoat Renewables

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Greencoat UK Wind. We currently have 71 research reports from 6 professional analysts.

Open
N/A
Range Today
N/A
52 Week
134/153p
Daily Volume
N/A
# Shares
1,518m
Daily Liquidity
(0.09%)
Pension Liability
£0m
Enterprise Value
£2,616m
Market Cap
£2,191m
Latest PE (hist)
7.60
Div Yield
4.79

Latest News/RNS

(more news)
Date Source Announcement
03Feb20 08:00 RNS Allotment of Shares and PDMR Shareholdings
31Jan20 07:00 RNS NAV, Dividend & Notice of Annual Results
20Dec19 07:00 RNS Acquisition of Windy Rig and Twentyshilling
11Dec19 14:21 RNS Holding(s) in Company
02Dec19 08:00 RNS Total Voting Rights
01Nov19 08:00 RNS Allotment of Shares and PDMR Shareholdings
29Oct19 07:01 RNS Chairman Succession
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  • 12 Feb 20
LIBERUM: Plus500* - Q4 stronger than thought

Q4 saw $100m of revenues ex customer P+L. The company will return 100% of 2019 profits to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, has $293m net cash, and may seek targeted acquisitions, new licences and product extensions.

Companies: Plus500
  • 12 Feb 20
LIBERUM: Premier Miton Group* - Net flow stabilisation should be a positive catalyst for the shares

Following a sharp rally in December 2019 many UK listed asset managers have continued to see small share price gains in 2020 with the sector up 4.0% year to date. However, we note that there has been a particular under-performance of Premier Miton’s shares, currently down 17.2% over the same period.

Companies: Premier Miton Group
  • 11 Feb 20
S&U - Quick Take - Seemingly Unrelenting

S&U this morning released another solid trading update, this time covering the 2019 year-end period. The key highlights include the successful transition to the new Advantage CEO, an improvement in transaction levels for both businesses (including another record for Advantage), improvements in the Aspen repayments profile, and an increased second interim dividend, up 1p to 36p. We will reforecast at full year results on 24th March. In the meantime, management are optimistic for the coming year and have re-confirmed that FY20 results should be in line with their expectations.

Companies: S&U
  • 12 Feb 20
S&U - Encouraging year-end update

S&U’s year-end trading update signalled that FY20 results are set to be in line with management expectations. It is encouraging that there has been a post-election improvement in transactions at both Advantage and Aspen, while used-car prices have stabilised or increased recently. Our estimates are unchanged and the shares trade on a sub-10x P/E and yield of 5%.

Companies: S&U
  • 10 Feb 20
Palace Capital*

Pre-letting at Hudson Quarter sets record rent in York

Companies: Palace Capital
  • 27 Jan 20
Cenkos: Equals Group Plc -- Strong growth confirmed with B2B pivot

Today's update confirms Equals has delivered a second straight year of material revenue and profit growth, despite difficult market conditions, with a significant shift in the revenue profile towards more profitable B2B customers. Given profit delivery has been slightly lower than expected, we rebase our forecasts to take a more prudent view of trading in years FY21E and FY22E, but we are confident Equals has now assembled the products, infrastructure and management it needs for strong growth.

Companies: Equals Group
  • 11 Feb 20
Sunshine after the rain

“The focus for the next few years is on relatively modest investment and on driving return on assets towards our medium-term target of 20% for each division”. So said John van Kuffeler at the 16 January 2020 capital markets day. After an eventful 2019, 2020 (and beyond) is now all about operational delivery, the “boring” grinding out of profit from a franchise that has seen heavy investment over many years. We welcome this focus and think it will help deliver the 84% EPS growth (2021 on 2018) in current consensus estimates. The accompanying trading statement indicated 2019 results would be in line with market expectations. The shares rose 15% on the day.

Companies: Non-Standard Finance
  • 13 Feb 20
Equity adjustments offset by reduced capital usage

Although the quarterly operating performance was on track, notably thanks to cost savings, it seems that asset quality has deteriorated markedly. The tangible book value was impacted by heavy adjustments but this was offset by reduced capital usage.

Companies: Barclays
  • 03 Feb 20
Hardman & Co Monthly: February 2020

We recently published a paper, Share ownership: For the many, not the few, based on a statistical survey of share ownership, produced jointly with Argus Vickers, the share analysis service. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has now issued its equivalent survey. This paper compares its results with ours. Although there are, inevitably, differences in the detail, the two surveys reach the same conclusions.

Companies: AVO AGY ARBB CLIG DNL FLTA GDR MCL NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI RMDL STX SCE TON VTA

  • 08 Jan 20
UK Housebuilding Sector: 2020 vision: Sharpness and clarity for industry prospects

For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t catch on).

Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG VTY CRN CSP CRST GLE GLV INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ WJG

  • 07 Feb 20
Henderson Opportunities Trust - Unconstrained UK portfolio with small-cap spice

Henderson Opportunities Trust (HOT) invests in UK stocks across the market cap spectrum. Managed by James Henderson and Laura Foll (who also co-manage Lowland Investment Company and the Law Debenture Corporation), HOT has an unconstrained portfolio that differs markedly from peers and the team’s other funds, with c 70% invested outside the FTSE 350 index, and c 55% in AIM stocks. HOT seeks capital growth but also offers a growing dividend (current yield of 2.4%), paid quarterly from FY20. The managers see the trust as one that will sit beside a mainstream fund in a portfolio and bring diversity to the combined list of holdings, not for the sake of it but for real capital appreciation. While HOT’s long-term performance record is strong, its returns in FY19 suffered as lowly valued UK small-caps (particularly those listed on AIM) have been out of favour.

Companies: Henderson Opportunities Trust
  • 10 Feb 20
Lok'nStore

H1 20 update – strong trading and another pipeline store

Companies: Lok'n Store Group
  • 13 Feb 20
Strong performance since IPO

Since IPO in October 2018 to end of December 2019 (first full accounting period) AJOT has delivered a NAV total return of +14.3% vs +7.9% total return generated by the trust’s benchmark MSCI Japan Small Cap Index (both in sterling terms). This outperformance has been achieved by a high degree of corporate activity with ten companies announcing share buybacks over the period and three were subject to takeovers. AJOT has enjoyed an average premium rating of 3.5% since IPO and this has enabled the Board to issue a further 34.9m shares via tap issues at small premiums to the prevailing NAV. The company has recently stated that they are exploring further equity issuances to enable the manager to exploit further investment opportunities.

Companies: AVI Japan Opportunity Trust
  • 08 Jan 20
LIBERUM: Ramsdens Holdings* - Comfortably ahead - another positive trading update

The company has announced that following strong trading over Christmas, PBT will be comfortably ahead of expectations. In addition, the non-recurring profit of £0.6m which was announced in October has grown to £0.8m.

Companies: Ramsdens
  • 30 Jan 20
Comfortably ahead

In a positive year-end update, Belvoir has detailed FY 2019 sales growth of +43% driven by +6% in the Property division and +148% in Financial Services. Given the twin challenges of the tenant fee ban and political and economic uncertainty around Brexit, we view this as a very strong result, evidencing the success and potential of the strategy. Cash flow has remained strong with net debt at December 2019 of £6.9m (our forecast £7.9m). We have upgraded our FY 2019 EPS by +5.5%, our target price from 194p to 238p and highlight that with the potential for better market conditions post the election and the benefit of the Dacres deal (Financial Services) and the acquisition of Lovelles (estate agency network) to come there remains the potential for positive surprises.

Companies: Belvoir Lettings