HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) has recorded a 12-month rise in NAV (based on a preliminary figure at end-July 2019) of 8.7%, which is a solid beat versus the public benchmark. Over the last six months, HVPE remained a net investor deploying US$202m into HarbourVest funds (compared to US$139m distributions), mostly on the back of the real assets deal in February. We note that despite HVPE’s limited UK portfolio exposure and long-term NAV outperformance vs UK equities, its short-term price returns are largely driven by the UK market sentiment.
Companies: Harbourvest Global Private Equity L
HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) has recorded an uplift in NAV since end-July 2018 of 4.9% and 5.6% in US dollar and sterling terms respectively, with limited impact from increased public market volatility of Q418. Following successful realizations, HVPE aims to rebuild its exposure to the primary strategy (44% vs target 55%), and to the US market (55% vs 65%). Moreover, HVPE looks at further diversification through investments in real assets which are characterized by low correlation with equity markets and provide stable cash flows. Following the transaction in February 2019, HVPE’s exposure to real asset and mezzanine investments now stands at 14% (at end-April 2019).
Supermarket Income – Increase in issue size | Civitias Social Housing – Acquisitions and debt update | HarbourVest Global Private Equity – Investment update | Hipgnosis Songs – Acquisitions
Companies: SUPR CSH HVPD SONG
HarbourVest Global Private Equity’s (HVPE) first-half results showed good progress in NAV (+6.8% in US$ terms), ahead of its listed equity benchmark and a private equity index, both of which were negative over the period. Looking ahead, HVPE notes the high valuations prevailing in the private market and the risks of further listed market volatility. In this environment, the portfolio’s diversification and HarbourVest’s experience in manager selection are likely to be particularly valuable attributes.
HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) aims to provide shareholders with access to the best private markets opportunities globally, through investing in a portfolio of HarbourVest funds. HVPE’s portfolio is broadly diversified by underlying manager, vintage, strategy, stage and regional exposure. Its recent performance has been strong in its US dollar functional currency, with a 16.2% NAV total return in FY18, although currency moves have weighed on its performance in sterling terms. After three years of strong portfolio distributions, the 2018 commitment plan has been drawn up with a view to ensuring that HVPE moves closer to a fully invested position over the next two to three years.
HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) offers broad, selected exposure to leading private equity managers globally, and has a highly diversified underlying portfolio. HVPE celebrated its 10th anniversary in December 2017, and its 10-year sterling NAV total return of 12% pa is ahead of its global listed equity benchmark’s 10% pa return, as well as the 6% pa return of the LPX 50 Index, representing its global listed private equity peers. However, an 11% gain in sterling versus the US dollar (HVPE’s functional currency) has weighed heavily on its one-year sterling returns. Looking ahead, HVPE believes its unique access to HarbourVest funds should enable it to capture the opportunities created by key global megatrends that are expected to dominate private markets over the next 10 years.
HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) is celebrating 10 years since its launch in December 2007. Over the period since its inception to end-October 2017, HVPE has outperformed global equity markets and its listed private equity peer group, represented by the LPX 50 index, in both NAV and share price terms. In this note, we analyse a series of alternative performance measures which show that, on a risk-adjusted basis, HVPE’s share price performance has tended to compare favourably to global equity markets, while its risk-adjusted NAV returns have also compared positively to its listed private equity peer group over most time periods.
HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) gives investors access to selected private equity (PE) managers globally and a highly diversified portfolio of over 7,000 underlying companies. HVPE will celebrate its 10th anniversary in December 2017 and since inception its shares have outperformed global listed and unlisted equities, represented by the FTSE All-World and LPX 50 indices, by 11% and 36%, respectively. This solid performance is consistent with the mandate to generate long-term capital growth above global equities, and has been achieved with relatively low volatility due to HVPE’s high level of diversification.
Judging by prevailing discounts to net assets, broad fund of fund investors in private equity are not a particularly favoured group within the investment company sector. However, a fund such as HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) can be seen as having appealing attributes: in addition to a still wide discount, it is structured and managed to ensure diversification by vintage, stage, geography, strategy and industry. The management team has substantial experience, a wide industry network and follows a consistent approach to investment, further mitigating the risks inherent in private equity investment. The NAV performance since inception compares well with the MSCI All World and private equity indices.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Harbourvest Global Private Equity L.
We currently have 45 research reports from 5
Ramsdens has reported a strong set of trading results in the last twelve months to March 2020. COVID lockdown has led to store closures, which will lead to weaker trading over the following months. However, Ramsdens has a very solid balance sheet, is diversified and is well positioned to re-open stores and continue its growth. We use an 8x multiple on last 12 months to March 2020 earnings as a reflection of a normalised earnings base which reduces our target price to 162p from 180p. At this target price Ramsdens would trade on a CY20 P/B of 1.5x. This target price offers 15% upside and we re-iterate BUY.
Premier Miton have reported their H1’20 results, which have shown delivery of key operational milestones during the period and strong performance despite the COVID-19 fears. Since the end of March, markets have recovered and net flows have been positive in April, meaning AUM has reached £9.9bn. We believe this shows the resilience of the business and that the benefits of the merger are coming through. As delivery continues we believe Premier Miton will see a significant re-rating as the shares currently trade on just 9.7x CY20 P/E, a significant discount to peers and historic levels of 12.5x. We reiterate our BUY rating and DCF based target price of 152p, implying 52% upside.
Companies: Premier Miton Group
The Renewables Infrastructure Group - £120m capital raise
Marwyn Value Investors - Proposed share acquisition by manager and crystallisation of carried interest
DP Aircraft I - 5% ownership stake in Norwegian
Companies: Renewables Infrastructure Group Marwyn Value Investors
Despite the disruption caused by COVID, Harworth has continued to make good progress across each business area. Liquidity has also been enhanced with an increase in the RCF announced at the end of April.
Companies: Harworth Group
There has been much comment on the fact that equity markets in the US and Europe have been shrinking for some years now, certainly in terms of the number of quoted companies, if not in total market capitalisation (MCap). This paper has been written with the assistance of the Quoted Companies Alliance (QCA) and focuses on the evidence for such in the London market and, in particular, that for smaller and midcap companies. It assesses that evidence and considers explanations. Finally, we ask why it matters, and assuming that it does, what practical steps can be taken to reverse the trend. Successful public markets have been a key part of the United Kingdom’s economic success for generations, even centuries, and we should not allow them to wither on the vine.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX ASAI DNL GDR HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VTA
In this note, we analyze the indebtedness of 35 international E&Ps publicly listed in the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and the USA. For each company, we look at (1) cash position, (2) level and nature of debt (including covenants), (3) debt service and principal repayment framework and (4) Brent price required from April to YE20 to meet all the obligations and keep cash positions intact. We also estimate YE20 cash if Brent were to average US$20/bbl from April to YE20. While the oil demand and oil price collapse are of unprecedented historical proportions and the opportunities to cut costs much more limited than in 2014, most companies (with a few exceptions) entered the crisis in much better position than six years ago, with stronger balance sheets and often already extended debt maturities. In addition, this time around, many E&Ps have already been deleveraging for 1-2 years and are not caught in the middle of large developments that cannot be halted. The previous crisis also showed that debt providers could relax debt covenants for a certain period as long as interest and principal repayment obligations were met. This implies that as long as operations are not interrupted and counterparties keep paying their bills (Kurdistan), the storm can be weathered by most for a few quarters.
With (1) Brent price of about US$50/bbl in 1Q20, (2) reduced capex programmes, (3) material hedging programmes covering a large proportion of FY20 production at higher prices and (4) limited principal repayments in 2020, we find that most companies can meet all their costs and obligations in 2020 at Brent prices below US$40/bbl and often below US$35/bbl) from April until YE20 and keep their cash intact, allowing them to remain solvent at much lower prices for some time. In particular, Maha Energy and SDX Energy are cash neutral at about US$20/bbl. When factoring the divestment of Uganda, Tullow needs only US$9/bbl to maintain its YE20 cash equal to YE19. Canacol Energy, Diversified Gas and Oil, Independent Oil & Gas, Orca Exploration, Serica Energy and Wentworth Resources are gas stories not really exposed to oil prices and Africa Oil has hedged 95% of its FY20 production at over US$65/bbl.
Companies: AKERBP AOI CNE CNE DGOC EGY ENOG ENQ GENL GKP GPRK GTE HUR IOG JSE KOS LUPE MAHAA OKEA ORC.B PEN PHAR PMO PTAL PXT RRE SDX SEPL TETY TGL TLW TXP WRL
We believe RECI’s 21% discount to NAV reflects a reduction in investors’ confidence, reflecting the uncertain outlook, security values and potential impairments. When considering if this discount is excessive, we note i) a relatively low-risk profile, ii) strong liquidity means RECI can optimise recovery returns, iii) restructuring is a core competency, iv) realised losses to date are just 2.1p, v) bond valuations are expected by RECI to be repaid at par, but priced at 17% below par, and vi) borrowers have been injecting equity into their deals. The stable 3p 4Q dividend and unchanged policy show confidence and re-investment returns rising.
Companies: Real Estate Credit Investments
The Merchants Trust (MRCH) is managed by Simon Gergel at Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI). Aiming to continue to provide a high and growing level of income, he is adjusting the trust's portfolio in the wake of dividend cuts sparked by the negative economic effects of COVID-19. If there is an income shortfall in this financial year, MRCH is well positioned to maintain its dividend, with revenue reserves of more than 1x the last annual payment. It has not been an easy period for value managers over the last decade as growth stocks have led the charge; however, Gergel has outperformed the UK market over this period in both NAV and share price terms. The board reduced MRCH's gearing in late January 2020, which was opportune timing ahead of the recent significant stock market weakness.
Companies: Merchants Trust
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL GDR HAYD PCA PIN PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SHED VTA
The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the share price of property companies, with 31% wiped off the value of their total market capitalisation during the first quarter of 2020.
Companies: AEWU CREI CSH BOOT INL HLCL THRL SUPR RESI RGL DIGS GR1T SOHO PHP BOXE ASLI UTG AGR UAI BLND UANC CAL SHED CWD WHR EPIC WKP GRI YEW HMSO PCA INTU NRR
The COVID-19-related crisis further increases the top-line pressure. However, the quarter showed ongoing efficiency gains and, above all, management’s cost of risk guidance stood significantly below our stress test based projections.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGR CSH ESP DIGS IHR LXI PHP RESI SIR SUPR THRL SOHO BBOX SHED WHR
AFH Financial released an AGM statement suggesting that trading for FY20 remains in line with expectations. In the first four months of FY20 AFH has continued to see inflows at Q4’19 levels. The company also expects to see continued consolidation and a growing need for financial planning. Although the current market uncertainty has hit the industry, we believe that AFH is less affected than others by market movements due to its protection broking revenues and initial advice fees totalling 40% of revenues. We leave our forecasts and TP unchanged. These show AFH trading on 10.8x FY20 P/E falling to 9.7x in FY21, and yielding 2.8% rising to 3.1%. BUY.
Companies: AFH Financial Group
Given the substantial share price decline for Ramsdens in the last month, following clear risks to near term earnings, we revisit the group’s valuation and suggest a potential impact to earnings from the COVID-19 related lockdown. The analysis shows that Ramsdens has a solid balance sheet with a number of clear valuation supports and will be able to withstand the extreme conditions that are likely to occur over the coming months. We use an 8x multiple on FY20 earnings as a reflection of a normalised earnings base which reduces our target price to 180p from 258p. At this target price Ramsdens would trade on a FY21 P/B of 1.6x and yield 4.5%. This target price offers 114% upside and we retain BUY.
Today's news & views, plus announcements from VOD, POLY, SMDS, BLND, BYG, WEIR, DC, SNR, SHI, INTU, IHR, CNC, ARE, INCE
Companies: INTU SHI INCE